Rightfully yours

Ed.Note: This is an update on Replacing a Senator.

As the results of the 2008 elections solidify into historical facts, a big news item is the 60-seat majority the Democrats are seeking in the Senate. Currently, the score of the 100-seat council is:
· Democrats   57
· Republicans 40
· Undecided    3.

The Democratic 57 is made up of 55 elected Senators and the two Independent Senators, Joe Lieberman and Bernie Sanders, who caucus (coordinate group policy) with the Democrats.

With 60 seats going to the Democrats, they would be able to limit debate on any subject, preventing the minority Republicans from delaying a vote by filibustering (under Senate Rule 22) on any legislation they do not agree with.

A supermajority of 3/5 of those present and voting can end the filibuster. An absolute supermajority is based on total membership, and that is where the 60 seats come in.

Years ago, I used to be confused between stopping a filibuster and overriding a veto. Overriding a filibuster takes 3/5 of the Senate body, is a Senate rule, and the contest is within the Senate. Overriding a veto takes 2/3 of both Houses, is dictated by the Constitution, and is between the legislature and the executive.

Of course, the Democratic champion, President-elect Barack Obama has already won the top spot in the country and will sign anything sent to him by House leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate leader Harry Reid (who think they are the ones who really run the country).

I don’t think so.

There are three Senate seats that MUST be won by Democrats to claim filibuster-proof voting power, and one wild card. The probability of collecting all three cards is virtually zero. Let’s take them one at a time.

Alaska. Senator Ted Stevens is losing. As the votes are counted, the opponents switch leads. First, Senator Stevens pulls barely ahead, then his opponent Anchorage Democratic mayor Mark Begich pulls ahead. This is the Kentucky Derby of politics.

Mark Begich led Ted Stevens by just 814 votes after about 57,000 additional ballots were counted on Nov. 12. So far, about 279,000 votes have been counted and about 45,000 more remain to be counted.

As of Nov 18, Mr. Begich leads by 3,724 votes.

Alaska allows 15 days following the election to receive absentee ballots mailed by Election Day from outside the U.S. and 10 days if mailed by Election Day within the U.S. Wednesday, November 19 is the final day for absentee ballots to arrive and be counted.

Sure, Senator Stevens is the pork barrel king, famed for bringing the bacon home to Alaska, but Alaskans can read, and know that earmarking and pork barrel legislation will be severely diminished (but never disappear).

The race is close partly due to Senator Stevens’ convictions on seven felony counts of failing to report gifts. The convictions came a week before Election Day. There has never been a convicted felon elected to Congress, and for good reason. Would you want a felon representing your state?

Senator Stevens’ attorneys are planning an appeal in December.  Stevens said that if he were to lose his appeal, he would resign rather than face expulsion from the Senate (protecting his sizeable pension of about $129,400 per year). A Presidential pardon will be required to keep the 85-year old out of prison. Sentencing is February 25, 2009.

I think people are ready for a fresh face in Alaska. And for the undecided voters, the only other choice in fresh faces was a Democrat.

Governor Sarah Palin can get on with governing Alaska, and maybe run for Senate later. The next Senate race is 2010, when Senator Lisa Murkowski the state’s junior senator’s term is expiring.

Let’s put Alaska down as a Democratic win.

November 20 update: Fresh from his defeat in his reelection bid, Senator Ted Stevens gave his last ever Senate floor speech today, bidding farewell to his colleagues and the chamber he has served in since 1968.  His final speech prompted a standing ovation, tears and a stream of farewell speeches from colleagues on both sides of the aisle.

“My motto” Stevens said, ”has always been ‘to hell with politics, just do what’s right for Alaska.’  And I’ve tried every day to live up to those words. I bear no ill will toward any member of this body.” 

April 1, 2009 update:  The U.S. Justice Department on Wednesday moved to dismiss charges against former Alaskan Senator Ted Stevens amid accusations of prosecutorial misconduct, according to a motion filed in federal court.  U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder reviewed the case himself and decided not to continue to defend the conviction in the face of questions of prosecutorial misconduct.  The age of Stevens, 85, and the fact that he is no longer in the Senate also influenced Holder.

Score:
· Democrats   58
· Republicans 40
· Undecided    2.

Minnesota. Wednesday, November 19 is the day a statewide hand recount will start. Incumbent Republican Norm Coleman is currently 206 votes ahead of his Democratic challenger, comedian and former radio talk show host Al Franken.

There are 2.9 million votes to be counted. To give some perspective, if I counted by ones to 2.9 million, a number every second without stopping, it would take more than 33 ½ days to reach that number.

There are still many votes (estimated at 25,000) where people voted Democratic but the ballot optical scanning machines may not have picked up the vote if the voter indicated their preference with other than a filled-in oval.

The State Canvassing Board will meet on December 16th and provide an update. There is a strong possibility that this close race will wind up in court, so let’s leave this one as undecided.

Georgia. Both incumbent Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss and challenger Democrat Jim Martin fell short of winning the 50 percent of the vote required for election under Georgia law, even though Senator Chambliss led Martin on Election Day by 109,671 votes. As a result, there will be a runoff election on December 2nd.

Historically, Georgia runoffs draw significantly lower turnout than the general election, perhaps due to the holiday timing.

Allen Buckley of the Libertarian Party is not a part of the runoff, but garnered 3.4% of the electorate on November 4. Both parties have solicited his support.

Buckley has made it clear at this time that he is not prepared to endorse either of the candidates, but has reponded to questions that suggest a discontentment with Senator Chambliss. This one could also go either way, so we’ll leave the score alone.

Connecticut. Senator Joe Lieberman is the wild card in the filibuster-proof majority. He has been a Democrat since he was first elected to the Connecticut Senate in 1970, through his elections to the U.S. Senate starting in 1988. In 2006, he lost the Democratic Party nomination, but won re-election as an “Independent Democrat” and caucus’d with the Democratic camp.

Lieberman spoke at the Republican National Convention, and campaigned for his longtime friend, Senator John McCain.

Displeasure over his “traitorous” conduct, Democrats looked to strip him of his chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee, and banish him from the Democratic caucus. Lieberman said that action would be “unacceptable” to him.

That type of reaction by the Democrats fits in with the vicious in-fighting, threats, and punishment that is so typical of our national legislative bodies, that has put our country into the dark economic situation we now find ourselves.

President-elect Obama communicated to the Democrats that he did not want Senator Lieberman thrown out of the Democratic caucus, since that might prompt him to move to the Republican camp.

Until recently, Senate Majority Leader, Democrat Harry Reid’s tone had been chilly when discussing Senator Lieberman. Sources report that President-elect Obama urged Senator Reid to let it go and look forward.

Today, November 18, the Democratic caucus met and voted to allow Senator Lieberman to retain his chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee and relinquish his position on the Environment and Public Works Committee. Next month, the Connecticut Democratic Party is considering a resolution to censure Senator Lieberman and ask him to change his Party affiliation to Democrat.

After the meeting, Senator Harry Reid, said of Lieberman, “He’s part of this caucus. We are not looking back. We are looking forward.” Quite a change in attitude. Thank you, Mr. President-elect. It reminds me of Lincoln speaking to Seward as related in the book, “Team of Rivals.”

Nevertheless, as the Democrats called for “a spirit of reconciliation,” they couldn’t resist a final shot at the Republicans, blaming them for the “extreme partisan environment” created by President Bush.

So the score remains:
· Democrats   58
· Republicans 40
· Undecided     2.

Perhaps it is a good thing there are some restrictions on the new Congress. Look at the world economy to appreciate what removing regulation can do.