Employment Situation:

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 125,000 workers in June, reflecting a decrease of 225,000 temporary employees in the Census 2010 segment as the project comes to an end. 

Private sector employment changed little (+83,000). 

The unemployment rate edged down to 9.5 percent.

Employment status:

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers. 

–Current: 153.7 million; one year ago: 154.7 million. 
–Employed workers — current: 139.1 million; one year ago: 140.0 million.
–Unemployed workers — current: 14.6 million (9.5%); one year ago: 14.7 million (9.7%).

In between, the unemployment rate rose to 10% for the last three months of 2009.

There have been steady increases to the Civilian labor force since the start of 2010 (153.2 million). 

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade. 

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009. 

In a healthy economy, around 125,000 jobs a month must be added and filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable. 

The government goal of 8 percent unemployment would mean 12.4 million looking for jobs. 

As consumer and business confidence improves, more workers start to look for jobs again, returning to the workforce in anticipation of better employment conditions, which drives the unemployment rate higher.  On the other side, workers drop from the work force for a number of reasons including giving up looking for work.

In addition, 1.6 million college graduates joined the Civilian labor force, with last year’s graduates still scrambling to land jobs.

Household Survey Data

Nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 125,000 in June (reflecting a decrease of 225,000 temporary Census workers [net +83,000]) after a big increase in May (+433,000 [revised] including an increase of 411,000 temporary Census workers [net +22,000]), April (+313,000 [revised]) and March (+208,000 [revised]) and holding nearly level in February (+39,000 [revised]) and January (+14,000).  This followed a big drop in December (-109,000), and a boost to prepare for the holiday season in November (+64,000) following a big drop in October (-224,000).  

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has been improving steadily over the last nine months with three-month averages at: April through June 2010 (+207,000), January through March 2010 (+87,000), and October through December 2009 (-89,667). 

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was 8.6 million.  These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less or were unable to find full-time jobs.  Previous month part time figures have held relatively steady since March 2009 at 9 million.

The number of persons marginally attached to the labor force was 2.6 million.  These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months.  They had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks and so were not considered part of the labor force. 

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workers was 1.2 million.  These are persons no longer looking for work.  The peak was 1.2 million, reached in February 2010.         

The average duration of unemployment has risen to 35.2 weeks.  A year ago it was 24.4 weeks. At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.5 weeks.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) remained at 6.8 million.  This is more than five times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.3 million).   In 2009 alone, 3.5 million were added to that number.  Four in ten (45.5%) unemployed persons are in this category. 

Establishment Survey Data

Construction lost 22,000 jobs in June, nearly erasing last month’s gain. Previous month changes were May (+30,000), April (+22,000 [revised]), March (+26,000 [revised]), February (-64,000), January (-77,000), December (-32,000), November (-15,000) and October (-67,000).

The quarterly average construction job data has been improving with three-month averages at: April through June 2010 (+10,000), January through March 2010 (-38,333) and October through December 2009 (-38,000). 

Currently, there are 5.6 million construction jobs. A year ago, there were 6.0 million.  In December 2007, there were 7.39 million.   

Manufacturing gained 9,000 jobs in June.  Previous month changes were May (+32,000), April (+38,000), March (+17,000), February (+1,000), January (+20,000), December (-23,000), November (-25,000) and October (-57,000).  

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has been improving steadily over the last nine months with three-month averages at: April through June 2010 (+26,333), January through March 2010 (+12,667) and October through December 2009 (-35,000). 

Currently, there are 11.67 million manufacturing jobs. A year ago, there were 11.78 million.  In December 2007, there were 13.73 million. 

Retail trade lost 6,600 jobs in June.  Previous month changes were May (-10,900), April (+14,400), March (+22,800), February (+7,100), January (+49,100), December (-14,500), November (+8,800) and October (-63,000). 

The quarterly average retail job data has been relatively steady over the last nine months with three-month averages at: April through June 2010 (-1,033), January through March 2010 (+26,333) and October through December 2009 (-22,900). 

Currently, there are 14.44 million retail trade jobs. A year ago, there were 14.55 million.  In December 2007, there were 15.566 million.   

Professional Business Services gained 46,000 jobs in June.  Previous month changes were May (+25,000), April (+70,000), March (+1,000), February (+56,000), January (+23,000), December (+22,000), November (+106,000) and October (+11,000). 

The quarterly professional business services job data has been steadily improving over the last nine months with three-month averages at: April through June 2010 (+47,000), January through March 2010 (+26,667) and October through December 2009 (+46,333). 

Currently, there are 16.7 million professional business services jobs. A year ago there were 16.5 million.  In December 2007, there were 18.1 million.  This is one of the currently largest job growth fields.

Temporary help services added 20,500 jobs in June, and 345,200 jobs in the last 12 months. 

Currently, there are 2.1 million temporary help services jobs.  A year ago, there were 1.6 million.  In December 2007, there were 2.6 million.     

Education and Health Services gained 22,000 jobs in June.  Previous month changes were May (+20,000), April (+28,000), March (+45,000), February (+32,000), January (+16,000), December (+26,000), November (+31,000) and October (+35,000).   

The quarterly average education and health services job data has been improving steadily over the last nine months with three-month averages at: April through June 2010  (+23,333), January through March 2010 (+31,000) and October through December 2009 (+30,667). 

Currently, there are 19.5 million education and health services jobs. A year ago, there were 19.2 million.  In December 2007, there were 18.6 million.  This is one of the currently largest job growth fields.

Government employment (federal, state and local) lost (net) 208,000 jobs in June.  Of the jobs ended by the federal government, 225,000 were temporary jobs for the U.S. Census.  The Census 2010 jobs will last through mid-July. 

Previous month changes were May (net+400,000), April (+72,000), March (+50,000), February (-23,000), January (-2,000), December (-26,000), November (-11,000) and October (+38,000).   

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state and local) jobs have been growing over the last nine months with three-month averages at: April through June 2010 (+88,000), January through March 2010 (+8,333) and October through December 2009 (+333). 

All government (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 22.77 million jobs. A year ago, there were 22.57 million.  In December 2007, there were 22.377 million. 

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.55 million jobs. A year ago there were 2.1 million.  In December 2007, there were 1.974 million. 

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 654,900 jobs.  A year ago, there were 703,900.  In December 2007, there were 781,300.   

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.385 million jobs. A year ago, there were 2.366 million.  In December 2007, there were 2.327 million.   

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.774 million jobs. A year ago, there were 2.811 million.  In December 2007, there were 2.813 million.   

Local governments education: Currently, there are 8.008 million jobs. A year ago, there were 8.094 million.  In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.   

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.394 million jobs. A year ago, there were 6.484 million.  In December 2007, there were 6.429 million. 

The good news from this data is that overall, the job gains are increasing. 

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (25.7%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics.  The lowest unemployment started with Asians (7.7%) followed up by Adult women (7.8%), Whites then Adult men (9.9%). 

Average weekly hours and overtime

The average workweek for all employees remained consistent at 34.1 hours. 

The average hourly and weekly earnings for production and non-supervisory employees in June held at $19.00 with weekly earnings at $634.60. 

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring. 

Civilian labor force

The total Civilian labor force rose to 153.7 million from the 153.2 million at the start of 2010.  This indicates a mood elevation for workers re-entering the work force who had given up looking for work and now have hope that there are jobs for them. 

The Civilian labor force usually grows as a recession winds down and optimism about finding work grows.  

The employment population (the number of the country’s working-age population that is employed) is at 139.1 million, up from the 138.3 million at the start of 2010.  This number will grow as jobs are created and the unemployment rate recedes.

Comparing the present with the final month of the last major downturn in November 1982, the total Civilian labor force then stood at 111.1 million.  In that month, there were 11.9 million people unemployed accounting for 10.8% of the available work force (average for the year was 10.6 million unemployed with the rate at 9.7%).  The average for 2009 was 9.3%, increasing from 7.7% in January to 10.1% in December.

Looking at jobs needed to reduce unemployment
with the total Civilian labor force at 153.7 million:

(r)=revised

To restore employment to the 5.5% level of 2008, 6.1 million people will have to regain their job or start new a job.   

Ed.Note:  Government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.  With the current Civilian labor force, that means that on a permanent basis there will be roughly 12.4 million people unemployed. 

Fastest growing occupations and Occupations with the largest job growth

It comes as no surprise that the fastest growing occupations in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.). 

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and compensation go hand in hand.  

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 60,000 households across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey.  This translates into about 110,000 individuals.  All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,025 geographic sampling units.  824 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States.  For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods. 

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out.  They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever. 

Each month, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members. 

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 290,000 of the 153.7 million workers in the Civilian labor force.  A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive. 

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification.  This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be. 

The basic concepts of employment are: 

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results. 

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force.  They are counted separately. 

Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment.   He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs.  Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8+%. 

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers released a report showing the plan would save or create 1.5 million jobs by the end of 2009 and 3.5 million by the end of 2010. 

A senior White House official stated that the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus plan will meet their previous estimates to save 3.5 million U.S. jobs by the end of 2010.  White House officials have been careful to point out that estimated jobs created and saved have merely slowed continued job losses.

The president sent The Small Business Jobs and Wages Tax Cut to Congress on January 10, 2010 to try to stimulate more hiring.  It focused on small businesses, because as the president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America.”  The proposal included:

• Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
• Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
• Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.
• The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
• There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees. 
• There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

President Obama noted that this proposal would be worked into the various other proposals that have already advanced in Congress, such as The HIRING Act of 2010 and The Jobs for Main Street Bill of 2010. 

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program is costing less with fewer losses than expected, as much as $200 billion has been freed up to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits. 

Stimulus spending by state 

As of June 23, 2010, of the
$336,069,071,636 announced,
$401,449,935,194 (119.5%) has been made available
$251,386,487,383 (74.8%) has been paid out to the states

Recession histories:

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%. 

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II.  It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. 

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently.  Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

Recession peaks 1974-2010 

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later.  By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

 The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2008 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:
It is interesting to recognize that in most cases, unemployment peaks roughly one-third of the timeline for unemployment to return to its “normal” rate, so we can double the number of months from the Start to the Peak to expect to arrive at an approximate return to “normal.”

We live in hope (again, past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Employment Situation:

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 431,000 in May, but 411,000 of those were temporary Census workers who will be employed only through July. 

Private sector employment changed little (+41,000).

The hiring of the 411,000 Census workers forced the unemployment rate down to 9.7 percent, the same rate as in the first 3 months of 2010, but for all intents, we can call this month a draw, with permanent employment increasing by 41,000 and the Civilian labor force remaining relatively constant at 154.4 million (from 154.7 million in April). 

Calculating the unemployment rate taking out the 411,000 temporary workers whose jobs will end in July, the number unemployed stands at 15.383 million in the Civilian labor force of 154.393, making the “real” unemployment rate 9.96%. 

Employment status:

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers. 

–Current: 154.4 million; one year ago: 155.0 million. 

–Employed workers — current: 139.4 million; one year ago: 140.4 million.

–Unemployed workers — current: 15.0 million (9.7%); one year ago: 14.5 million (9.4%).

In between, the unemployment rate rose to 10% for the last three months of 2009.

There have been steady increases to the Civilian labor force, adding 1.3 million workers since the start of 2010. 

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade. 

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009. 

In a healthy economy, around 125,000 jobs a month must be added and filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable. 

As consumer and business confidence improves, more workers start to look for jobs again, returning to the workforce in anticipation of better employment conditions, which drives the unemployment rate higher.  On the other side, workers drop from the work force for a number of reasons including giving up looking for work.

In addition, 1.6 million college graduates are expected to join the Civilian labor force, with last year’s graduates still scrambling to land jobs.

Household Survey Data

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 431,000 in May (including 411,000 temporary Census workers) after a big increase in April (+290,000) and March (+208,000 [revised]) and holding nearly level in February (+39,000 [revised]) and January (+14,000).  This followed a big drop in December (-109,000), and a boost to prepare for the holiday season in November (+64,000).  Previous month changes were October (-224,000), and September (-225,000).  

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has been improving steadily over the last nine months with three-month averages at: March through May 2010 (+309,667), December 2009 through February 2010 (-18,667), and September through November 2009 (-128,333). 

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was 8.8 million in May.  These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less or were unable to find full-time jobs.  Previous month part time figures have held relatively steady since March 2009 at 9 million.

The number of persons marginally attached to the labor force was 2.2 million in May.  These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months.  They had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks and so were not considered part of the labor force. 

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workers was 1.1 million in May.  These are persons no longer looking for work.  The peak was 1.2 million, reached in February 2010.         

The average duration of unemployment has risen to 34.4 weeks in May.  At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.5 weeks.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) remained at 6.8 million.  This is more than five times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.3 million).   In 2009 alone, 3.5 million were added to that number.  Four in ten (46%) unemployed persons are in this category. 

Establishment Survey Data

Construction lost 35,000 jobs in May, nearly erasing the gains of the last two months. Previous month changes were April (+14,000), March (+26,000 [revised]), February (-64,000), January (-77,000), December (-32,000), November (-15,000), October (-67,000) and September (-71,000).

The quarterly average construction job data has been improving over the last nine months with three-month averages at: March through May 2010 (+1,667), December 2009 through February 2010 (-57,667) and September through November 2009 (-51,000). 

Currently, there are 5.643 million construction jobs. A year ago, there were 6.150 million jobs.  In December 2007, there were 7.390 million (-1.747 million).   

Manufacturing gained 29,000 jobs in May.  Previous month changes were April (+44,000), March (+17,000), February (+1,000), January (+20,000), December (-23,000), November (-25,000), October (-57,000) and September (-48,000).   

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has been improving steadily over the last nine months with three-month averages at: March through May 2010 (+30,000), December 2009 through February 2010 (-667) and September through November 2009 (-130,000). 

Currently, there are 11.66 million manufacturing jobs. A year ago, there were 11.91 million.  In December 2007, there were 13.73 million (-2.07 million). 

Retail trade lost 6,600 jobs in May.  Previous month changes were April (+18,500), March (+22,800), February (+7,100), January (+49,100), December (-14,500), November (+8,800), October (-63,000) and September (-48,300). 

The quarterly average retail job data has been improving over the last nine months with three-month averages at: March through May 2010 (+11,567), December 2009 through February 2010 (+13,900) and September through November 2009 (-34,167). 

Currently, there are 14.45 million retail trade jobs. A year ago, there were 14.57 million.  In December 2007, there were 15.566 million (-1.166 million).   

Professional Business Services gained 22,000 jobs in May.  Previous month changes were April (+73,000), March (+1,000), February (+56,000), January (+23,000), December (+22,000), November (+106,000), October (+11,000) and September (-22,000). 

The quarterly professional business services job data has been improving over the last nine months with three-month averages at: March through May 2010 (+32,000), December 2009 through February 2010 (+33,667) and September through November 2009 (+31.667). 

Currently, there are 16.663 million professional business services jobs. A year ago there were 16.585 million.  In December 2007, there were 18.051 million (-1.388 million).  This is one of the largest job growth fields.

Temporary help services added 31,000 jobs in May, and 296,600 jobs in the 12 months. 

Currently, there are 2.086 million temporary help services jobs.  A year ago, there were 1.792 million.  In December 2007, there were 2.557 million (-471,000).     

Education and Health Services gained 17,000 jobs in May.  Previous month changes were April (+35,000), March (+45,000), February (+32,000), January (+16,000), December (+26,000), November (+31,000), October (+35,000) and September (+26,000).   

The quarterly average education and health services job data has been improving steadily over the last nine months with three-month averages at: March through May 2010  (+32,333), December 2009 through February 2010 (+24,667) and September through November 2009 (+30,667). 

Currently, there are 19.494 million education and health services jobs. A year ago, there were 19.137 million.  In December 2007, there were 18.559 million (+935,000).  This is one of the largest job growth fields.

Government employment (federal, state and local) added (net) 390,000 jobs in May.  Of the jobs added by the federal government, 411,000 were temporary jobs for the U.S. Census, adding to the 66,000 added in April and the 48,000 added in March.  The Census 2010 jobs will last through mid-July. 

Previous month changes were April (+72,000), March (+50,000), February (-23,000), January (-2,000), December (-26,000), November (-11,000), October (+38,000) and September (-39,000).   

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state and local) job data has been improving over the last nine months with three-month averages at: March through May 2010 (+170,667), December 2009 through February 2010 (-17,000) and September through November 2009 (-4,000). 

All government (federal, state, local, U.S. post office): Currently, there are 22.968 million jobs. A year ago, there were 22.628 million jobs.  In December 2007, there were 22.377 million (+340,000). 

Federal government (except U.S. post office): Currently, there are 2.737 million jobs. A year ago there were 2.156 million.  In December 2007, there were 1.974 million (+763,000). 

U.S. Post Office: Currently, there are 657,700 jobs.  A year ago, there were 708,800 jobs.  In December 2007, there were 781,300  (-123,600).   

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.391 million jobs. A year ago, there were 2.373 million jobs.  In December 2007, there were 2.327 million (+64,000).   

State governments (except education): Currently, there are 2.767 million jobs. A year ago, there were 2.817 million jobs.  In December 2007, there were 2.813 million (+46,000).   

Local governments education: Currently, there are 8.010 million jobs. A year ago, there were 8.087 million jobs.  In December 2007, there were 8.053 million (-43,000).   

Local governments (except education): Currently, there are 6.406 million jobs. A year ago, there were 6.487 million jobs.  In December 2007, there were 6.429 million (-13,000). 

The good news from this data is that overall the job gains are increasing. 

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (26.4%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics.  The lowest unemployment started with Asians (7.5%) followed up by Adult women (8.1%), Whites then Adult men (9.8%). 

Average weekly hours and overtime

The average workweek for all employees remained consistent at 34.2 hours. 

The average hourly and weekly earnings for production and non-supervisory employees in May held at $18.99 with weekly earnings at $636.17. 

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring. 

More people quit their jobs in the past three months than were laid off — a sharp reversal after 15 straight months in which layoffs exceeded voluntary departures. The trend suggests the job market is finally thawing.

Some of the quitters are leaving for new jobs. Others have no firm offers. But their newfound confidence about finding work is itself evidence of more hiring and a strengthening economy.

Civilian labor force

The total Civilian labor force rose to 154.4 million from the 153.2 million at the start of 2010.  This indicates a mood elevation for workers re-entering the work force who had given up looking for work and now have hope that there are jobs for them. 

The Civilian labor force usually grows as a recession winds down and optimism about finding work grows.  This is the reason the unemployment rate rose along with added jobs.

The employment population (the number of the country’s working-age population that is employed) is at 139.4 million, up from the 137.8 million at the start of 2010.  This number will grow as jobs are created and the unemployment rate recedes.

Comparing the present with the final month of the last major downturn in November 1982, the total Civilian labor force then stood at 111.1 million.  In that month, there were 11.9 million people unemployed accounting for 10.8% of the available work force (average for the year was 10.6 million unemployed with the rate at 9.7%).  The average for 2009 was 9.3%, increasing from 7.7% in January to 10.1% in December.

Looking at jobs needed to reduce unemployment
with the total Civilian labor force at 154.4 million:

(r)=revised

To restore employment to the 5.5% level of 2008, 6.5 million people will have to regain their job or start new a job.   

Ed.Note:  Government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.  With the current Civilian labor force, that means that on a permanent basis there will be roughly 12.4 million people unemployed. 

Fastest growing occupations and Occupations with the largest job growth

It comes as no surprise that the fastest growing occupations in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.). 

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and compensation go hand in hand.  

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 60,000 households across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey.  This translates into about 110,000 individuals.  All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,025 geographic sampling units.  824 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States.  For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods. 

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out.  They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever. 

Each month, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members. 

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 290,000 of the 154.4 million workers in the Civilian labor force.  A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive. 

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification.  This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be. 

The basic concepts of employment are: 

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results. 

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force.  They are counted separately. 

 Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment.   He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs.  Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8+%. 

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers released a report showing the plan would save or create 1.5 million jobs by the end of 2009 and 3.5 million by the end of 2010. 

A senior White House official stated that the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus plan will meet their previous estimates to save 3.5 million U.S. jobs by the end of 2010.  White House officials have been careful to point out that estimated jobs created and saved have merely slowed continued job losses.

The president sent The Small Business Jobs and Wages Tax Cut to Congress on January 10, 2010 to try to stimulate more hiring.  It focused on small businesses, because as the president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America.”  The proposal included:

• Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firm) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
• Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
• Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.
• The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
• There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees. 
• There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

President Obama noted that this proposal would be worked into the various other proposals that have already advanced in Congress, such as The HIRING Act of 2010 and The Jobs for Main Street Bill of 2010. 

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program is costing less with fewer losses than expected, as much as $200 billion has been freed up to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits. 

Stimulus spending by state 

As of June 2, 2010, of the
$341,651,746,249 announced,
$394,202,067,677 (115.4%) has been made available
$239,160,763,287 (70.0%) has been paid out to the states

 Recession histories:

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%. 

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II.  It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. 

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently.  Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

Recession peaks 1974-2010 

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later.  By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

 The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2008 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:

Unemployment rates:
It is interesting to recognize that in most cases, unemployment peaks roughly one-third of the timeline for unemployment to return to its “normal” rate, so we can double the number of months from the Start to the Peak to expect to arrive at an approximate return to “normal.”We live in hope (again, past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Employment:

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 290,000 yet the Unemployment rate also rose by 0.2% to 9.9% in April. 

The Unemployment rate had held at 9.7% for January through March after dropping from the high of 10.1% in October 2009.   

How can there be more workers employed yet the Unemployment rate goes up? 

The reason is the number unemployed (and the unemployment rate) includes only those who looked for work in the last 4 weeks, and changes as the Civilian labor force population fluctuates. 

As consumer and business confidence improves, more workers start to look for jobs again, returning to the workforce in anticipation of better employment conditions, which drives the unemployment rate higher.  On the other side, workers drop from the work force for a number of reasons including giving up looking for work.

The number of unemployed in March was 15.0 million.  The number of unemployed persons in April was 15.3 million, increasing the unemployment rate 9.9 percent.

Here’s the numbers:  The Civilian labor force increased by 805,000 in April (it has grown by 1.656 million since the start of 2010).  550,000 obtained jobs, 255,000 did not.  Unemployment still dropped by 635,000 in April to 15.265 million, giving 9.86 percent unemployment. 

In addition, 1.6 million college graduates are expected to join the Civilian labor force next month, with last year’s graduates still scrambling to land jobs.

See this report’s section on Civilian Labor Force.

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 290,000 in April after a big increase in March (+230,000 [revised]) and holding nearly level in February (+39,000 [revised]) and January (+14,000).  This followed a big drop in December (-109,000), and a boost to prepare for the holiday season in November (+64,000).  Previous month changes were October (-224,000), September (-225,000), and August (-211,000).  

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job layoff figures have been improving steadily over the last nine months with three-month averages at: February through April 2010 (+186,333), November 2009 through January 2010 (-27,000), and August through October 2009 (-220,000). 

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade. 

The current rate is 9.9% and the number unemployed is at 15.3 million. 

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009. 

In a healthy economy, around 125,000 jobs a month must be added and filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable. 

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was 9.2 million in April.  These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less or were unable to find full-time jobs.  Previous month part time figures have held relatively steady since March 2009 at 9 million.

About 2.4 million workers are considered marginally attached to the labor force.  These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months.  They had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks and so were not considered part of the labor force. 

Among the marginally attached workers, discouraged workers (persons no longer looking for work) rose to 1.2 million in April equaling the peak 1.2 million in February 2010, and up by 457,000 from a year ago.      

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) stand at 6.7 million.  This is more than five times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.3 million).   In 2009 alone, 3.5 million were added to that number.  Four in ten (45.9%) unemployed persons are in this category. 

The average length of unemployment has risen to 33 weeks in April.  At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.5 weeks.

Industry sectors and historical data

Construction gained 14,000 jobs in April. Previous month changes were March (+26,000 [revised]), February (-64,000), January (-77,000), December (-32,000), November (-15,000), October (-67,000), September (-71,000) and August (-64,000).

The quarterly average construction job figures have been improving over the last nine months with three-month averages at: February through April (-8,000), November 2009 through January 2010 (-41,333) and August through October 2009 (-67,333). 

Currently, there are 5.625 million construction jobs. In December 2007, there were 7.491 million (down 1.866 million).  In December 2009 there were 5.696 million (down 71,000). 

Manufacturing gained 44,000 jobs in April.  Previous month changes were March (+17,000), February (+1,000), January (+20,000), December (-23,000), November (-25,000), October (-57,000), September (-48,000) and August (-57,000).   

The quarterly average manufacturing job figures have been improving steadily over the last nine months with three-month averages at: February through April (+20,667), November 2009 through January 2010 (-9,333) and August through October 2009 (-54,000). 

Currently, there are 11.635 million manufacturing jobs. In December 2007, there were 13.726 million (down 1.866 million).  In December 2009 there were 11.534 million (up 101,000). 

Retail trade gained 12,000 jobs in April.  Previous month changes were March (+15,000), February (+8,000), January (+42,000), December (-18,000), November (+9,000), October (-63,000), September (-43,000) and August (-15,000). 

The quarterly average retail job figures have been improving steadily over the last nine months with three-month averages at: February through April (+11,667), November 2009 through January 2010 (+11,000) and August through October 2009 (-40,333). 

Currently, there are 14.444 million retail trade jobs. In December 2007, there were 15.566 million (down 1.122 million).  In December 2009 there were 14.360 million (up 84,000). 

Professional Business Services gained 80,000 jobs in April.  Previous month changes were March (+11,000), February (+51,000), January (+30,000), December (+20,000), November (+109,000), October (+11,000), September (-22,000) and August (-34,000). 

The quarterly professional business services job figures have been improving over the last nine months with three-month averages at: February through April (+44,000), November 2009 through January 2010 (+53,000) and August through October 2009 (-15,000). 

Currently, there are 16.660 million professional business services jobs. In December 2007, there were 18.051 million (down 1.391 million).  In December 2009 there were 16.488 million (up 172,000).  This is one of the largest job growth fields.

Temporary help services added 26,000 jobs in April, and 330,000 jobs since September 2009. 

Currently, there are 2.055 million temporary help services jobs.  In December 2007, there were 2.557 million (down 502,000).  In December 2009 there were 1.191 million (up 864,000).   

Education and Health Services gained 35,000 in April.  Previous month changes were March (+45,000), February (+32,000), January (+16,000), December (+26,000), November (+31,000), October (+35,000), September (+26,000) and August (+35,000).   

The quarterly average education and health services job growth figures have been improving steadily over the last nine months with three-month averages at: February through April (+37,333), November 2009 through January 2010 (+24,333) and August through October 2009 (+32,000). 

Currently, there are 19.489 million education and health services jobs. In December 2007, there were 18.559 million (up 930,000).  In December 2009 there were 19.350 million (up 139,000).  This is one of the largest job growth fields.

Government employment (federal, state and local) gained 59,000 jobs in April.  While state and local governments trimmed their employment by 6,000 jobs, the federal government added 69,100 jobs, while trimming 4,000 jobs from the US Post Office. 

Of the jobs added by the federal government, 66,000 were temporary jobs for the U.S. Census, accumulating with the 48,000 added in March.  Over the next two months, another 600,000 to 700,000 census jobs will be added, and last through mid-July. 

Previous month changes were March (+39,000), February (-18,000), January (+7,000), December (-27,000), November (-11,000), October (+38,000), September (-39,000) and August (+4,000).   

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state and local) job figures have been irregular over the last nine months with three-month averages at: February through April (+26,667), November 2009 through January 2010 (-10,333) and August through October 2009 (+1,000). 

Federal government (except U.S. post office): Currently, there are 2.320 million jobs. In December 2007, there were 1.974 million (up 346,000).  In December 2009 there were 2.160 million (up 160,000). 

U.S. Post Office: Currently, there are 658,900 jobs.  In December 2007, there were 781,300  (down 122,400).  In December 2009 there were 663,700 (down 4,800). 

State governments (except education): Currently, there are 2.789 million jobs. In December 2007, there were 2.813 million (up 194,000).  In December 2009 there were 22.481 million (up 90,000). 

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.392 million jobs. In December 2007, there were 2.327 million (up 65,000).  In December 2009 there were 2.383 million (up 9,000). 

Local governments (except education): Currently, there are 6.416 million jobs. In December 2007, there were 6.429 million (down 13,000).  In December 2009 there were 6.439 million (down 23,000). 

Local governments education: Currently, there are 8.005 million jobs. In December 2007, there were 8.053 million (down 48,000).  In December 2009 there were 8.040 million (down 35,000). 

All government (federal, state, local, U.S. post office): Currently, there are 22.571 million jobs. In December 2007, there were 22.377 million (up 194,000).  In December 2009 there were 22.481 million (up 90,000). 

The good news from this data is that overall the job gains are increasing. 

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (25.4%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics.  The lowest unemployment started with Asians (6.8%) followed up by Adult women (8.2%), Whites then Adult men (10.1%). 

Average weekly hours and overtime

The average workweek for all employees remained consistent at 34.1 hours. 

The average hourly and weekly earnings for production and non-supervisory employees in April held at $18.96 with weekly earnings at $633.26. 

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring. 

Civilian labor force

The total Civilian labor force rose sharply to 154.7 million from the 153.1 million at the start of 2010.  This indicates a mood elevation for workers re-entering the work force who had given up looking for work and now have hope that there are jobs for them. 

The Civilian labor force usually grows as a recession winds down and optimism about finding work grows.  This is the reason the unemployment rate rose along with added jobs.

The employment population (the number of the country’s working-age population that is employed) is at 139.5 million, up from the 137.8 million at the start of 2010.  This number will grow as jobs are created and the unemployment rate recedes.

Comparing the present with the final month of the last major downturn in November 1982, the total Civilian labor force then stood at 111.1 million.  In that month, there were 11.9 million people unemployed accounting for 10.8% of the available work force (average for the year was 10.6 million unemployed with the rate at 9.7%).  The average for 2009 was 9.3%, increasing from 7.7% in January to 10.1% in December.

Looking at jobs needed to reduce unemployment
with the total Civilian labor force at 154.7 million:

(r)=revised

To restore employment to the 5.5% level of 2008, 6.8 million people will have to regain their job or start new a job.   

Ed.Note:  Government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.  With the current Civilian labor force, that means that on a permanent basis there will be roughly 12.4 million people unemployed. 

Fastest growing occupations and Occupations with the largest job growth

It comes as no surprise that the fastest growing occupations in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.). 

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and compensation go hand in hand.  

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 60,000 households across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey.  This translates into about 110,000 individuals.  All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,025 geographic sampling units.  824 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States.  For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods. 

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out.  They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever. 

Each month, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members. 

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 290,000 of the 154.7 million workers in the Civilian labor force.  A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive. 

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification.  This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be. 

The basic concepts of employment are: 

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results. 

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force.  They are counted separately. 

 Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment.   He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs.  Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8+%. 

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers released a report showing the plan would save or create 1.5 million jobs by the end of 2009 and 3.5 million by the end of 2010. 

A senior White House official stated that the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus plan will meet their previous estimates to save 3.5 million U.S. jobs by the end of 2010.  White House officials have been careful to point out that estimated jobs created and saved have merely slowed continued job losses.

The president sent The Small Business Jobs and Wages Tax Cut to Congress on January 10, 2010 to try to stimulate more hiring.  It focused on small businesses, because as the president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America.”  The proposal included:

• Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firm) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
• Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
• Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.
• The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
• There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees. 
• There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

President Obama noted that this proposal would be worked into the various other proposals that have already advanced in Congress, such as The HIRING Act of 2010 and The Jobs for Main Street Bill of 2010. 

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program is costing less with fewer losses than expected, as much as $200 billion has been freed up to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits. 

Stimulus spending by state 

As of May 5, 2010, of the
$335,693,715,067 announced,
$382,097,920,368 (113.8%) has been made available
$225,647,592,857 (67.2%) has been paid out to the states

 Recession histories:

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%. 

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II.  It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. 

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently.  Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

 Recession peaks 1974-2010 

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later.  By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

 The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2008 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:
It is interesting to recognize that in most cases, unemployment peaks roughly one-third of the timeline for unemployment to return to its “normal” rate, so we can double the number of months from the Start to the Peak to expect to arrive at an approximate return to “normal.”We live in hope (again, past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Employment:

The Unemployment rate remained the same in March at 9.7% after dropping from the high of 10.1% in October 2009. 

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in March after holding nearly level in February (-14,000 [revised]) and January (+14,000 [revised]).  This followed a big drop in December (-109,000 [revised]), and a boost to prepare for the holiday season in November (+64,000 [revised]).  Previous month changes were October (-224,000 [revised]), September (-225,000 [revised]), August (-211,000 [revised]), July (-344,000 [revised]), June (-504,000), and May (-347,000).  

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job layoff figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months.  The three-month averages of January through March 2010 (+54,000), October through December 2009 (-128,333), and July through September 2009 (-260,000). 

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, payroll employment has decreased by 8.4 million (4.5 million in 2009 alone).  This wiped out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade. 

The current rate is 9.7% and the number unemployed is at 15.0 million. 

Total unemployment currently stands at 15.0 million (9.7%) after peaking at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009. 

In a healthy economy, around 125,000 jobs a month must be added and filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.  This is the eighth consecutive month of unemployment holding steady within 0.3%.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased to 9.1 million in March.  Previous month part time figures were February (8.8 million), January (8.3 million), December (9.2 million), November (9.2 million), October (9.2 million), September (9.2 million), August (9.1 million), July (8.8 million) and June (9.0 million).  

These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less or were unable to find full-time jobs.  Since the start of the recession, the number of such workers has increased by 3.7 million, and has remained relatively constant since March 2009 (9.0 million). 

About 2.3 million workers are considered marginally attached to the labor force wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months.  They had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks and so were not considered part of the labor force. 

Among the marginally attached workers, discouraged workers (persons no longer looking for work) dropped to 1.0 million in March from a peak 1.2 million in February 2010, but up by 309,000 a year ago.   

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) stand at 6.5 million.  This is five times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.3 million).   In 2009 alone, 3.5 million were added to that number.  Four in ten (43.6%) unemployed persons are in this category. 

The average length of unemployment has risen to 31.2 weeks in March.  At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.5 weeks.

Ed.Note: The number unemployed (and the unemployment rate) includes only those who looked for work in the last 4 weeks, and changes as the Civilian labor force population varies. 

The number unemployed contrasted with the changes in payroll employment is accounted for by workers no longer looking for work and therefore dropping out of the Civilian labor force. 

As consumer and business confidence improves, more workers will start to look for jobs again, returning to the workforce in anticipation of better employment conditions, which drives the unemployment rate higher.  On the other side, workers drop from the work force for a number of reasons including giving up looking for work.

Industry sectors and historical data

Construction gained 15,000 jobs in March. Previous month changes were February (-64,000), January (-77,000), December (-32,000), November (-15,000), October (-67,000), September (-71,000), August (-64,000), July (-80,000), and June (-91,000), with a total loss of 1.3 million jobs since December 2007. 

The quarterly average construction job figures have been holding steady and slightly improving over the last 9 months with three-month averages at: January through March (-42,000), October through December 2009 (-38,000) and July through September 2009 (-71,667).  The construction industry has lost 272,000 jobs in the last 12 months, but gained 507,000 jobs in 2010.

Manufacturing gained 17,000 jobs in March.  Previous month changes were February (+1,000), January (+20,000), December (-23,000), November (-25,000), October (-57,000), September (-48,000), August (-57,000), July (-43,000), and June (-129,000), with a total loss of 1.1 million jobs since December 2007.   

The quarterly average manufacturing job figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months with three-month averages at: January through March (+12,667), October through December 2009 (-35,000) and July through September 2009 (-49,333).  The manufacturing industry has gained 14,000 jobs in the last 12 months, and gained 151,000 jobs in 2010.

Retail trade gained 15,000 jobs in March.  Previous month changes were February (+8,000), January (+42,000), December (-18,000), November (+9,000), October (-63,000), September (-43,000), August (-15,000), July (-53,500), and June (-24,400), with a total loss of 1.1 million jobs since December 2007. 

The quarterly average retail job figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months with three-month averages at: January through March (+21,667), October through December 2009 (-24,000) and July through September 2009 (-37,167).  The retail trade industry has lost 203,000 jobs in the last 12 months, but gained 23             ,000 jobs in 2010.

Professional Business Services gained 11,000 jobs in March.  Previous month changes were February (+51,000), January (+30,000), December (+20,000), November (+109,000), October (+11,000), September (-22,000), August (-34,000), July (-48,000), and June (-132,000), with a total gain of 982,000 jobs since December 2007. 

The quarterly professional business services job figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months with three-month averages at: January through March (+30,667), October through December 2009 (+46,667) and July through September 2009 (-34,667).  The professional business service industry gained 188,000 jobs in the last 12 months, and gained 299,000 jobs in 2010.

Education and Health Services gained 45,000 in March.  Previous month changes were February (+32,000), January (+16,000), December (+26,000), November (+31,000), October (+35,000), September (+26,000), August (+35,000), July (+21,000), and June (+28,000), with a total gain of 580,000 jobs since December 2007. 

The quarterly average education and health services job growth figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months with three-month averages at: January through March (+31,000), October through December 2009 (+30,667) and July through September 2009 (+27,333).  The education and health service industry gained 170,000 jobs in the last 12 months, but declined by 82,000 jobs in 2010. 

Government employment (federal, state and local) gained 39,000 jobs in March.  While state and local governments trimmed their employment, the federal government added 51,300 jobs, while trimming 3,500 jobs from the US Post Office. 

Of the jobs added by the federal government, 48,000 were temporary jobs for the U.S. Census..  Over the next two months, another 600,000 to 700,000 census jobs will be added, and last through mid-July.  

Previous month changes were February (-18,000), January (+7,000), December (-27,000), November (-11,000), October (+38,000), September (-39,000), August (+4,000), July (-47,000), and June (-52,000), with a total gain (all levels) of 430,000 jobs since December 2007.   

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state and local) job figures have been holding steady over the last 9 months with three-month averages at: January through March (+9,333), October through December 2009 (zero) and July through September 2009 (-27,333).  Government (all levels) gained 283,000 jobs in the last 12 months, but declined by 84,000 jobs in 2010. 

Temporary help services added 40,200 jobs in March, and 166,000 jobs in the last 12 months.

The good news from this data is that the job gains are increasing. 

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (26.1%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics.  The lowest unemployment started with Asians (7.5%) followed up by Adult women (8.0%), Whites then Adult men (10.0%). 

Average weekly hours and overtime

The average manufacturing workweek remained increased to 39.9 hours with overtime at 2.9 hours. 

The average manufacturing hourly earnings for production and non-supervisory employees in March dropped by $0.01 to $18.45.  12 months ago the hourly earnings were $18.14 (+1.7%).  

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.  

Civilian labor force

The total Civilian labor force remained relatively constant at 153.9 million (up 851,000 from 153,059,000 at the start of 2010).  This indicates a mood elevation for workers who now have hope that there is work.  In February 2010 there were a million fewer workers in the work force than in February 2009 (154.4 million).   These were generally workers who had given up looking for work. 

The Civilian labor force usually grows as a recession winds down and optimism about finding work grows. 

This is the reason the unemployment rate has remained constant for the last few months.

The employment population (the number of the country’s working-age population that is employed) is at 138.9 million, 1.9 million less than 12 months ago.  This number will grow as jobs are created and the unemployment rate recedes.

Comparing now with the final month of the last major downturn in November 1982, the total Civilian labor force then stood at 111.1 million.  In that month, there were 11.9 million people unemployed accounting for 10.8% of the available work force (average for the year was 10.6 million unemployed with the rate at 9.7%).  The average for 2009 was 9.3%, increasing from 7.7% in January to 10.1% in December.

Looking at jobs needed to reduce unemployment
with the total Civilian labor force at 153.9 million:

To restore employment to the 5.5% level of 2008, about 6.5 million people will have to regain their job or start new jobs.  It is a tall mountain to climb. 

Ed.Note:  Government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.  With the current Civilian labor force, that means that on a permanent basis there will be roughly 12.3 million people unemployed — more than 3.8 million more than at the “normal” level today. 

Fastest growing occupations and Occupations with the largest job growth

It comes as no surprise that the fastest growing occupations 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field. 

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, as well as teachers and construction and transportation jobs.

Education and salary of course go hand in hand.  

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 60,000 households across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey.  This translates into about 110,000 individuals.  All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,025 geographic sampling units.  824 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States.  For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods. 

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out.  They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever. 

Each month, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members. 

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 290,000 of the 153.9 million workers in the Civilian labor force.  A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive. 

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification.  This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be. 

The basic concepts of employment are: 

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results. 

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force.  They are counted separately. 

Their number has nearly doubled in the previous 12 months.

 Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment.   He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs.  Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8+%. 

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers released a report showing the plan would save or create 1.5 million jobs by the end of 2009 and 3.5 million by the end of 2010. 

A senior White House official stated that the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus plan will meet their previous estimates to save 3.5 million U.S. jobs by the end of 2010.  White House officials have been careful to point out that estimated jobs created and saved have merely slowed continued job losses.

The president has now sent a proposal to Congress to try to stimulate more hiring.  It includes:

• helping small businesses expand with new tax breaks for those small businesses that hire,
• increasing investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to avoid layoffs,
• adding rebate incentives, particularly for consumers, for energy efficiency and green energy.

The biggest focus will be on small businesses.  Most jobs are in the private sector, and most private sector employers are small businesses.  The president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America,”

The proposal includes:

• A short-term tax incentive for small businesses that hire in 2010
• A one-year elimination of the capital gains tax for new investments in small business stock
• Extension of the Recovery Act enhanced expensing provision that allows small businesses to immediately expense up to $250,000 of qualified investment.
• Extension of the Recovery Act tax incentives for depreciation of capital spending
• Increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program is costing less with fewer losses than expected, as much as $200 billion has been freed up to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits. 

Stimulus spending by state 

As of March 23, 2010, of the
$333,277,042,891 announced,
$355,017,758,018 (106.5%) has been made available
$205,129,561,722 (61.5%) has been paid out to the states

 Recession histories:

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%. 

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II.  It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. 

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently.  Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

 Recession peaks 1974-2010 

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later.  By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

 The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2008 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:
It is interesting to recognize that in most cases, unemployment peaks roughly one-third of the timeline for unemployment to return to its “normal” rate, so we can double the number of months from the Start to the Peak to expect to arrive at an approximate return to “normal.”We live in hope (again, past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Employment:

The Unemployment rate remained the same in February at 9.7% from 10.0% in December.   

Nonfarm payroll employment held nearly level (-36,000) in February on the heels of a minor drop in January (-26,000 [revised]).  This followed a big drop in December (-109,000 [revised]), and a boost to prepare for the holiday season in November (+64,000 [revised]). 

The December drop could substantially be the result of seasonal employees let go by retailers.  Previous month changes were October (-224,000 [revised]), September (-225,000 [revised]), August (-211,000 [revised]), July (-344,000 [revised]), June (-504,000), and May (-347,000).  

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job layoff figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months.  The three-month averages of February 2010 through December 2009 (-57,000), November through September 2009 (-128,333), and August through June 2009 (-353,000).  In 2009, payroll employment declined by 4.5 million.  

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, payroll employment has decreased by 8.4 million, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade. 

Total unemployment dropped to 14.9 million (9.7%) after rising to 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009. 

The numbers still indicate that companies are approaching their maximum “leanness” and sustain perceptions that the economy is approaching employment turnaround.

Unemployment is still the highest since April 1983.  In a healthy economy, around 125,000 jobs a month must be added and filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The current rate is 9.7% and the number unemployed is at 14.9 million. 

This is the seventh consecutive month of unemployment holding steady within 0.3%.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased to 8.8 million in February.  Previous month part time figures were January (8.3 million), December (9.2 million), November (9.2 million), October (9.3 million), September (9.2 million), August (9.1 million), July (8.8 million) and June (9.0 million).  

These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less or were unable to find full-time jobs.  Since the start of the recession, the number of such workers has increased by 3.7 million, and has remained relatively constant since March 2009. 

About 2.5 million workers are considered marginally attached to the labor force wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months.  They had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks and so were not considered part of the labor force. 

Among the marginally attached workers, discouraged workers (persons no longer looking for work) rose to 1.2 million in January, up by 473,000 a year ago. 

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) have tripled since the start of the recession to 6.1 million since December 2007, adding 3.6 million to that number since January 2009.  Four in ten (41.2%) unemployed persons are in this category. 

The average length of unemployment has dropped to 29.7 weeks in February from 30.2 weeks in January after steadily climbing since February 2009.

Ed.Note: The number unemployed (and the unemployment rate) includes only those who looked for work in the last 4 weeks, and changes as the Civilian labor force population varies. 

The number unemployed contrasted with the changes in payroll employment is accounted for by workers no longer looking for work and therefore dropping out of the Civilian labor force. 

As consumer and business confidence improves, more workers will start to look for jobs again, returning to the workforce in anticipation of better employment conditions, which drives the unemployment rate higher.  On the other side, workers drop from the work force for a number of reasons including giving up looking for work.

Industry sectors and historical data

Construction lost 64,000 jobs in February, perhaps due to inclement weather and low temperatures.  Previous month changes were January (-77,000), December (-32,000), November (-15,000), October (-67,000), September (-71,000), August (-64,000), July (-80,000), and June (-91,000), with a total of 1.9 million since December 2007. 

The quarterly average construction job figures have been improving over the last 9 months with three-month averages at: December 2009 through February 2010(-57,667), September through November 2009 (-51,000), and June through August 2009 (-78,333). 

Manufacturing gained 1,000 jobs in February.  Previous month changes were January (+20,000), December (-23,000), November (-25,000), October (-57,000), September (-48,000), August (-57,000), July (-43,000), and June (-129,000) with a widespread job loss total of 2.1 million since December 2007, mostly in the durable goods industry. 

The quarterly average manufacturing job figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months with three-month averages at: December 2009 through February 2010 (-667), September through November 2009 (-43,333) and June through August 2009 (-76,333). 

Retail trade was unchanged in February.  Previous month changes were January (+42,000), December (-18,000), November (+9,000), October (-63,000), September (-43,000), August (-15,000), July (-53,500), and June (-24,400). 

The quarterly average retail job figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months with three-month averages at: December 2009 through February 2010 (+8,000), September through November 2009 (-32,333) and June through August 2009 (-30,966). 

Professional Business Services gained 51,000 jobs in February.  Previous month changes were January (+30,000), December (+20,000), November (+109,000), October (+11,000), September (-22,000), August (-34,000), July (-48,000), and June (-132,000). 

The quarterly professional business services job figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months with three-month averages at: December 2009 through February 2010 (+33,667), September through November 2009 (+32,667) and June through August 2009 (-76,000). 

Education and Health Services gained 32,000 in February.  Previous month changes were January (+16,000), December (+26,000), November (+31,000), October (+35,000), September (+26,000), August (+35,000), July (+21,000), and June (+28,000). 

The quarterly average education and health services job growth figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months with three-month averages at: December 2009 through February 2010 (+24,667), September through November 2009 (+30,667) and June through August 2009 (+28,000). 

In a nonstop record of job growth, the health care industry has added 322,000 jobs in 2009.

Government employment (federal, state and local) lost 18,000 jobs in February.   Previous month changes were January (+7,000), December (-27,000), November (-11,000), October (+38,000), September (-39,000), August (+4,000), July (-47,000), and June (-52,000). 

The Federal government added 16,000 jobs (15,000 temporary workers for Census 2010).  The U.S. Postal Service lost 9,000 jobs.  Figures will show a net gain of 7,000 jobs, but it is really a net loss of 8,000 permanent jobs. 

State governments added 7,000 education jobs and trimmed 1,000 jobs in other areas.  Local governments lost 24,000 education jobs and trimmed nearly 8,000 jobs in other areas.

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state and local) job figures have been holding steady over the last 9 months with three-month averages at: December 2009 through February 2010 (-12,667), September through November 2009 (-4,000) and June through August 2009 (-31,667). 

Temporary help services added 48,000 jobs in February, a net gain of 284,000 jobs since September 2009.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (25.0%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics.  The lowest unemployment started with Adult women (8.0%) followed up by Asians (8.4%), Whites then Adult men (10.0%). 

The good news from this data is that the job losses are lessening.  It is perhaps due to fewer jobs available to lose, but the lower figures are an encouraging sign.  We look forward to job gains.   

Average weekly hours and overtime

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring. 

The average manufacturing workweek remained unchanged at 39.4 hours with overtime at 2.6 hours. 

The average manufacturing hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory employees in February rose by $0.04 to $18.48 for January.  12 months ago the hourly earnings were $18.09 (+2.15%).  

Civilian labor force

The total Civilian labor force remained relatively constant at 153.5 million (up 342,000 from January).  There are a million fewer workers in the work force than in February 2009 (154.4 million).   These are generally workers who have given up looking for work. 

The Civilian labor force usually grows as a recession winds down and optimism about finding work grows.  But as long as Americans remain anxious about their jobs, consumer spending is not expected to grow enough to power an economic rebound. 

The employment population ratio (the proportion of the country’s working-age population that is employed), at 58.5 percent, has declined by 4.2 percent since the recession began in December 2007.

Comparing now with the final month of the last major downturn in November 1982, the total Civilian labor force then stood at 111.1 million.  In that month, there were 11.9 million people unemployed accounting for 10.8% of the available work force (average for the year was 10.6 million unemployed with the rate at 9.7%).  The average for 2009 was 9.3%, increasing from 7.7% in January to 10.0% in December.

Looking at jobs needed to reduce unemployment
with the total Civilian labor force at 153.5 million:

(r)=revised

To restore employment to the 5.5% level of 2008, about 6.5 million people will have to regain their job or start new jobs.  It is a tall mountain to climb. 

**Ed.Note:  Government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.  With the current Civilian labor force, that means that on a permanent basis there will be roughly 12.3 million people unemployed — more than 3.9 million more than at the “normal” level today. 

Fastest growing occupations and Occupations with the largest job growth

It comes as no surprise that the fastest growing occupations 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field. 

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, as well as teachers and construction and transportation jobs.

Education and salary of course go hand in hand.  

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 60,000 households across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey.  This translates into about 110,000 individuals.  All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,025 geographic sampling units.  824 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States.  For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods. 

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out.  They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever. 

Each month, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members. 

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 290,000 of the 153.5 million workers in the Civilian labor force.  A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive. 

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification.  This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be. 

The basic concepts of employment are: 

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results. 

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force.  They are counted separately. 

Their number has nearly doubled in the previous 12 months.

 Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment.   He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs.  Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8+%. 

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers released a report showing the plan would save or create 1.5 million jobs by the end of 2009 and 3.5 million by the end of 2010. 

A senior White House official stated that the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus plan will meet their previous estimates to save 3.5 million U.S. jobs by the end of 2010, but the unemployment rate at that time may be higher due to further deterioration in the economy.  White House officials have been careful to point out that estimated jobs created and saved have merely slowed continued job losses.

The president is now drafting a proposal to try to stimulate more hiring.  Obama plans to send Congress a list of ideas, including new tax breaks for small businesses that hire, some new spending on roads, bridges and other construction and grants to state and local governments to avoid layoffs.  Congress is likely to take up a job-creation package in the New Year.

Stimulus spending by state 

As of March 2, 2010, of the
$295,881,863,670 announced,
$345,928,575,159 (116.9%) has been made available
$194,910,746,023 (65.9%) has been paid out to the states

 Recession histories:

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%. 

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II.  It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. 

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently.  Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

 Recession peaks 1974-2009 

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later.  By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

 The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2008 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:
It is interesting to recognize that in most cases, unemployment peaks roughly one-third of the timeline for unemployment to return to its “normal” rate, so we can double the number of months from the Start to the Peak to expect to arrive at an approximate return to “normal.”We live in hope (again, past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Employment:

The Unemployment rate fell in January to 9.7% from 10.0% in December.   

Nonfarm payroll employment held nearly level (-20,000) in January after a big drop in December (-150,000 [revised]), and a boost to prepare for the holiday season in November (+64,000 [revised]).  The December drop could substantially be the result of seasonal employees let go by retailers.  Previous month changes were October (-224,000 [revised]) , September (-225,000 [revised]), August (-211,000 [revised]), July (-344,000 [revised]), June (-504,000), and May (-347,000).  

The monthly average nonfarm payroll job layoff figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months of January through November (-35,333), October through August (-220,000), and July through May (-398,333). 

In 2009, payroll employment declined by 4.5 million. Over the course of the year, job losses moderated considerably. In the first quarter of 2009, job declines averaged 752,667 per month, compared with 103,000 per month in the last quarter. 

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, payroll employment has decreased by 8.4 million, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade. 

Total unemployment dropped to 14.8 million (9.7%) after rising to 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009. 

The numbers still indicate that companies are approaching their maximum “leanness” and sustain perceptions that the economy is approaching employment turnaround.

Unemployment is still the highest since April 1983.  In a healthy economy, around 125,000 jobs a month must be added and filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The current rate is 9.7% and the number unemployed is at 14.8 million. 

This is the third consecutive month of unemployment holding steady.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) fell to 8.3 million in January from 9.2 million in December.  Previous month part time figures were November (9.2 million), October (9.3 million), September (9.2 million), August (9.1 million), July (8.8 million) and June (9.0 million).  

These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less or were unable to find full-time jobs.  Since the start of the recession, the number of such workers has increased by 3.7 million, and has remained relatively constant since March 2009. 

January 2010 is the first month this number has declined (-849,000). 

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) have tripled since the start of the recession to 6.3 million since December 2007, adding 3.6 million to that number since January 2009.  Four in ten (41.2%) unemployed persons are in this category. 

The average length of unemployment has risen to more than 30 weeks, the longest on record since 1948.

Discouraged workers (persons no longer looking for work) rose to 1.1 million in January, up from 929,000 in December, 861,000 in November and 734,000 a year ago.  

This is the first month that number has exceeded 1 million.

Ed.Note: The number unemployed (and the unemployment rate) includes only those who looked for work in the last 4 weeks, and changes as the Civilian labor force population varies. 

The number unemployed contrasted with the changes in payroll employment is accounted for by workers no longer looking for work and therefore dropping out of the Civilian labor force. 

As consumer and business confidence improves, more workers will start to look for jobs again, returning to the workforce in anticipation of better employment conditions, which drives the unemployment rate higher.  On the other side, workers drop from the work force for a number of reasons including giving up looking for work.

Industry sectors and historical data

Construction lost 75,000 jobs in January, perhaps due to inclement weather and low temperatures.  Previous month changes were December (-32,000), November (-15,000), October (-67,000), September (-71,000), August (-64,000), July (-80,000), June (-91,000), and May (-59,000), with a total of 1.9 million since December 2007. 

The monthly average construction job layoff figures have been improving steadily, over the last 9 months of January through November (-40,667), October through August (-67,333) and July through May (-76,667). 

Manufacturing gained 11,000 jobs in January.  Previous month changes were December (-23,000), November (-25,000), October (-57,000), September (-48,000), August (-57,000), July (-43,000), June (-129,000), and May (-152,000) with a widespread job loss total of 2.1 million since December 2007, mostly in the durable goods industry. 

The monthly average manufacturing job layoff figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months of January through November (-12,333), October through August (-54,000) and July through May (-108,000). 

Retail trade gained 42,000 jobs in January.  Previous month changes were December (-18,000), November (+9,000), October (-63,000), September (-43,000), August (-15,000), July (-53,500), June (-24,400), and May (-22,000). 

The monthly average retail job figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months of January through November (+11,000), October through August (-40,333) and July through May (-33,300). 

Professional Business Services gained 44,000 jobs in January.  Previous month changes were December (+20,000), November (+109,000), October (+11,000), September (-22,000), August (-34,000), July (-48,000), June (-132,000), and May (-51,000). 

The monthly average retail job figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months of January through November (+57,667), October through August (-15,000) and July through May (-77,000). 

Education and Health Services gained 16,000 jobs in January.  Previous month changes were December (+26,000), November (+31,000), October (+35,000), September (+26,000), August (+35,000), July (+21,000), June (+28,000), and May (+38,000). 

The monthly average education and health services job growth figures have been steady over the last 9 months of January through November (+24,333), October through August (+32,000) and July through May (+29,000). 

In a nonstop record of job growth, the health care industry has added 322,000 jobs in 2009.

Government employment (federal, state and local) lost 8,000 jobs in January.  Previous month changes were December (-27,000), November (-11,000), October (+38,000), September (-39,000), August (+4,000), July (-47,000), June (-52,000), and May (-13,000). 

The monthly average government employment (federal, state and local) job figures have been steady over the last 9 months of January through November (-10,000), October through August (+1,000) and July through May (-37,333). 

The federal government added 33,000 jobs in January including 9,000 temporary jobs for the 2010 Census and 14,000 jobs for the USPS, offsetting the 19,000 jobs the USPS downsized in December.  Except for education, state (-13,000) and local governments (-12,000) trended down.

Temporary help services added 52,000 jobs in January, adding to the 58,500 jobs in December, a net gain of 247,000 jobs since September 2009.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (26.4%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics.  The lowest unemployment started with Adult women (7.9%) followed up by Asians (8.4%), Whites then Adult men (10.0%). 

The good news from this data is that the job losses are lessening.  It is perhaps due to fewer jobs available to lose, but the lower figures are an encouraging sign. 

Average weekly hours and overtime

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring. 

The average manufacturing workweek remained unchanged at 39.9 hours with overtime at 2.8 hours. 

The average manufacturing hourly earnings remained steady at $23.19 for January.  Over the past 12 months average hourly earnings have risen 1.8%.  

Civilian labor force

The total Civilian labor force remained constant at 153.1 million (down 661,000 from November).  There are a million fewer workers in the work force than in January 2009 (154.1 million).   These are generally workers who have given up looking for work. 

The Civilian labor force usually grows as a recession winds down and optimism about finding work grows.  But as long as Americans remain anxious about their jobs, consumer spending is not expected to grow enough to power an economic rebound. 

The employment population ratio (the proportion of the country’s working-age population that is employed), at 58.4 percent, has declined by 4.3 percent since the recession began in December 2007.

Comparing now with the final month of the last major downturn in November 1982, the total Civilian labor force then stood at 111.1 million.  In that month, there were 11.9 million people unemployed accounting for 10.8% of the available work force (average for the year was 10.6 million unemployed with the rate at 9.7%). 

Looking at jobs needed to reduce unemployment
with the total Civilian labor force at 153.1 million:

(r)=revised

*To restore employment to the 5.5% level of 2008, about 6.4 million people will have to regain their job or start new jobs.  It is a tall mountain to climb. 

*Ed.Note:  Government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.  With the current Civilian labor force, that means that on a permanent basis there will be roughly 12.2 million people unemployed — more than 5.8 million more than at the “normal” level today. 

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 60,000 households across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey.  This translates into about 110,000 individuals.  All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,025 geographic sampling units.  824 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States.  For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods. 

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out.  They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever. 

Each month, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members. 

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 290,000 of the 153 million people in the Civilian labor force.  A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive. 

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification.  This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be. 

The basic concepts of employment are: 

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results. 

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force.  They are counted separately. 

Their number has nearly doubled in the previous 12 months.

 Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment.   He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs.  Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8+%. 

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers released a report showing the plan would save or create 1.5 million jobs by the end of 2009 and 3.5 million by the end of 2010. 

A senior White House official stated that the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus plan will meet their previous estimates to save 3.5 million U.S. jobs by the end of 2010, but the unemployment rate at that time may be higher due to further deterioration in the economy.  White House officials have been careful to point out that estimated jobs created and saved have merely slowed continued job losses.

The president is now drafting a proposal to try to stimulate more hiring.  Obama plans to send Congress a list of ideas, including new tax breaks for small businesses that hire, some new spending on roads, bridges and other construction and grants to state and local governments to avoid layoffs.  Congress is likely to take up a job-creation package in the New Year.

Stimulus spending by state 

As of January 26, 2010, of the
$329,766,478,709 announced,
$332,170,100,278 (100.7%) has been made available
$175,973,271,008 (53.4%) has been paid out to the states

 Recession histories:

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%. 

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II.  It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. 

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently.  Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

 Recession peaks 1974-2009 

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later.  By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

 The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2008 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:
It is interesting to recognize that in most cases, unemployment peaks roughly one-third of the timeline for unemployment to return to its “normal” rate, so we can double the number of months from the Start to the Peak to expect to arrive at an approximate return to “normal.”We live in hope (again, past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Employment:

Nonfarm payroll employment restarted its decline (down 85,000) after virtually stopping in its tracks (up 4,000 [revised]) in November.  This December drop could substantially be the result of seasonal employees let go by retailers.  The slowdown trend continued (127,000 [revised] in October, 139,000 [revised] in September, 201,000 in August [revised], 304,000 in July [revised], 467,000 in June, 345,000 in May, 539,000 in April and 633,000 in March).  

Over the 12 months ending in November, hires totaled 49.9 million and separations totaled 54.4 million, yielding a net employment loss of 4.5 million. 

In 2009, payroll employment declined by 4.5 million. Over the course of the year, job losses moderated considerably. In the first quarter of 2009, job declines averaged 691,000 per month, compared with 69,000 per month in the last quarter.

The 3-month average job layoff figures have been improving steadily.  December through October was 69,333 [revised], September through July was 214,667 [revised], and June through April was 450,333. 

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, payroll employment has decreased by 7.3 million, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade.    

Total unemployment has risen to 15.3 million (10.0%) from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009. 

The numbers still indicate that companies are approaching their maximum “leanness” and sustain perceptions that the economy is approaching employment recovery.

Unemployment is still the highest since April 1983.  In a healthy economy, around 125,000 jobs a month must be added and filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The current rate is 10.0% and the number unemployed is at 15.3 million. 

This is the second consecutive month of unemployment holding steady.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was unchanged in November at 9.2 million.  Previous month part time figures were November (9.2 million), October (9.3 million), September (9.2 million), August (9.1 million), July (8.8 million) and June (9.0 million).  

These persons had their hours cut back or were unable to find full-time jobs.  Since the start of the recession, the number of such workers has increased by 4.4 million, and has remained relatively constant since March 2009. 

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) have tripled since the start of the recession to 6.1 million since December 2007, adding 229,000 to that number in November.  Four in ten (39.8%) unemployed persons are in this category. 

The average length of unemployment has risen to more than 29 weeks, the longest on record since 1948.

There were 929,000 discouraged workers in December, up from 861,000 in November and 608,000 a year ago.  Discouraged workers are persons no longer looking for work.

Ed.Note: The number unemployed (and the unemployment rate) includes only those who looked for work in the last 4 weeks, and changes as the Civilian labor force population varies. 

The number unemployed contrasted with the changes in payroll employment is accounted for by workers no longer looking for work and therefore dropping out of the Civilian labor force. 

As consumer and business confidence improves, more workers will start to look for jobs again, returning to the workforce in anticipation of better employment conditions, which drives the unemployment rate higher.  On the other side, workers drop from the work force for a number of reasons including giving up looking for work.

Industry sectors

Construction dropped by 53,000 jobs in December, perhaps due to inclement weather and low temperatures.  Previous month losses were November (27,000), October (62,000), September (64,000), August (65,000), July (76,000), June (79,000), May (59,000), April (110,000), and March (161,000), with a total of 1.6 million since December 2007.  The average for May through October was 63,000 and 117,000 for the six months preceding that.  Total employment in construction has dropped by 1.6 million jobs since the recession began.  

Manufacturing dropped 27,000 jobs in December.  Previous month losses were November (41,000), October (61,000), September (51,000), August (63,000), July (52,000), June (136,000), May (156,000), April (149,000) and March (161,000) with widespread job losses totaling 2.1 million since December 2007, mostly in the durable goods industry.  The average job loss for July through December was 41,000, while January through June was 171,000.

General merchandise store employment dropped 15,000 jobs, as seasonal workers were no longer needed.  Retail added 8,000 department store jobs in November as merchants geared up for the holiday season.  Previous month losses were October (40,000), September (39,000), August (9,600), July (44,000), June (18,000), and April (47,000). 

Education and health services continued to add jobs, with health care payrolls increasing by 22,000 in December.  Positive previous months were November (21,000), October (45,000), September (19,000), August (52,000), and July (21,000).  The health care industry has added 631,000 jobs since December 2007.

Professional and business services added 50,000 jobs in December.  Previous changes were increases in November (86,000), October (18,000) and September (3,000), and losses in August (22,000), July (38,000), June (118,000), May (51,000), April (122,0000), and March (133,000).  

Temporary help services added 47,000 jobs in December, a net gain of 166,000 jobs since the low point in July.

Government employment lost 21,000 jobs in December, mostly USPS employees (12,600).  Previous changes were increases for November (7,000) and October (46,000).  Losses were registered in September (53,000), August (18,000) and July (28,000).

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (27.1%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics.  The lowest unemployment started with Adult women (8.2%) followed up by Asians (8.4%), Whites then Adult men (10.2%). 

The good news from this data is that the job losses are lessening.  It is perhaps due to fewer jobs available to lose, but the lower figures are an encouraging sign. 

The average manufacturing workweek remained unchanged at 40.4 hours with overtime at 3.4 hours.  This figure closely correlates with overall output and gives clues (when workweek hours increase) on when firms will start hiring. 

Average hourly earnings remained at $18.80 for December.  Over the past 12 months average hourly earnings have risen 2.2%.  

Workforce:

The total Civilian labor force stands at 153.0 million (down 661,000 from November).  There are nearly two million fewer workers in the work force than in June 2009 (154.9 million).   These are generally workers who have given up looking for work. 

The Civilian labor force usually grows as a recession winds down and optimism about finding work grows.  But as long as Americans remain anxious about their jobs, consumer spending is not expected to grow enough to power an economic rebound. 

The employment population ratio, at 58.2 percent, has declined by 4.5 percent since the recession began in December 2007.

Comparing now with the final month of the last major downturn in November 1982, the total Civilian labor force then stood at 111.1 million.  In that month, there were 11.9 million people unemployed accounting for 10.8% of the available work force (average for the year was 10.6 million unemployed with the rate at 9.7%). 

Looking at jobs needed to reduce unemployment
with the total Civilian labor force at 153.0 million:

(r)=revised

To restore employment to the 5.5% level of 2008, about 6.8 million people will have to regain their job or start new jobs.  It is a tall mountain to climb. 

Ed.Note:  Government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.  With the current Civilian labor force, that means that on a permanent basis there will be roughly 13 million people unemployed — more than 4.5 million more than at the “normal” level today. 

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 60,000 households across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey.  This translates into about 110,000 individuals.  All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,025 geographic sampling units.  824 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States.  For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods. 

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out.  They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever. 

Each month, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members. 

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 290,000 of the 153 million people in the Civilian labor force.  A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive. 

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification.  This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be. 

The basic concepts of employment are: 

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results. 

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force.  They are counted separately. 

Their number has nearly doubled in the previous 12 months.

 Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment.   He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs.  Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8+%. 

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers released a report showing the plan would save or create 1.5 million jobs by the end of 2009 and 3.5 million by the end of 2010. 

A senior White House official stated that the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus plan will meet their previous estimates to save 3.5 million U.S. jobs by the end of 2010, but the unemployment rate at that time may be higher due to further deterioration in the economy.  White House officials have been careful to point out that estimated jobs created and saved have merely slowed continued job losses.

The president is now drafting a proposal to try to stimulate more hiring.  Obama plans to send Congress a list of ideas, including new tax breaks for small businesses that hire, some new spending on roads, bridges and other construction and grants to state and local governments to avoid layoffs.  Congress is likely to take up a job-creation package in the New Year.

***Stimulus spending by state: 

As of January 5, 2010, of the
$328,417,898,346 announced,
$313,900,089,021 (95.6%) has been made available
$164,246,301,846 (50.0%) has been paid out to the states

http://www.recovery.gov/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=homeMap

 Recession histories:

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%. 

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II.  It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. 

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently.  Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

Recession peaks 1974-2009 

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later.  By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

 The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2008 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:
It is interesting to recognize that in most cases, unemployment peaks roughly one-third of the timeline for unemployment to return to its “normal” rate, so we can double the number of months from the Start to the Peak to expect to arrive at an approximate return to “normal.”We live in hope (again, past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Employment:

Nonfarm payroll employment virtually stopped in its tracks (down 11,000) after continuing the slowdown trend (111,000 [revised] in October, 139,000 [revised] in September, 201,000 in August [revised], 304,000 in July [revised], 467,000 in June, 345,000 in May, 539,000 in April and 633,000 in March).  

Since the start of the recession, payroll employment has decreased by 7.2 million, but November is the lowest number of jobs lost since the start of the recession.

The 3-month average job layoff figure has been improving steadily, and November’s figures break the trend.  August through October were 150,333 [revised]; July – September was 256,000; June – August was 324,000; May – July was 372,000; April – June was 450,333; March – May was 505,667.

The numbers still indicate that companies are approaching their maximum “leanness” and sustain perceptions that the economy gradually will swing to employment recovery.

The number of unemployed persons decreased in November by 325,000.  Previous month increases were October (558,000), September (214,000), August (466,000), July (267,000), June (218,000), May (787,000), April (563,000) and March (851,000). 

Total unemployment has risen to 15.4 million from 7.5 million (4.9%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009. 

The economy has lost 7.3 million jobs from December 2007 through September 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade.

Unemployment is the highest since April 1983.  In a healthy economy, around 125,000 jobs a month must be added and filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The current rate is 10.0% and the number unemployed is at 15.4 million. 

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in November at 9.2 million.  Previous month part time figures were October (9.3 million), September (9.2 million), August (9.1 million), July (8.8 million) and June (9.0 million).  

These persons had their hours cut back or were unable to find full-time jobs.  Since the start of the recession, the number of such workers has increased by 4.4 million, and has remained relatively constant since March 2009. 

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) have tripled since the start of the recession to 5.9 million since December 2007, adding 293,0000 to that number in November.  One in three (38.3%) unemployed persons are in this category. 

The average length of unemployment has risen to more than 28 weeks, the longest on record since 1948.

There were 861,000 discouraged workers in November, up from 608,000 a year ago.  Discouraged workers are persons no longer looking for work.

Ed.Note: Note that the number unemployed dropped by 291,000 in November, contrasting with the 11,000-worker drop in payroll employment.  This accounts for workers dropping out of the Civilian labor force.  Coincidentally, this is the exact increase in long-term unemployed persons. 

The number unemployed (and the unemployment rate) includes only those who looked for work in the last 4 weeks, and changes as the Civilian labor force population varies. 

As consumer and business confidence improves, more workers will start to look for jobs again, returning to the workforce in anticipation of better employment conditions, which drives the unemployment rate higher.  On the other side, workers drop from the work force for a number of reasons including giving up looking for work.

Manufacturing jobs dropped 41,000 in November.  Previous month losses were October (61,000), September (51,000), August (63,000), July (52,000), June (136,000), May (156,000), April (149,000) and March (161,000) with widespread job losses totaling 2.1 million since December 2007, mostly in the durable goods industry. 

Construction jobs dropped by 27,000 in November.  Previous month losses were October (62,000), September (64,000), August (65,000), July (76,000), June (79,000), May (59,000), April (110,000), and March (161,000), with a total of 1.6 million since December 2007.  The average for May through October was 63,000 and 117,000 for the six months preceding that.   

Retail trade employment added 8,000 department store jobs as merchants geared up for the holiday season.  Previous month losses were October (40,000), September (39,000), August (9,600), July (44,000), June (18,000), and April (47,000). 

Education and health services continued to add jobs, with health care payrolls increasing by 21,000 in November.  Positive previous months were October (45,000), September (19,000), August (52,000), and July (21,000).  The health care industry has added 613,000 jobs since December 2007.

Professional and business services added 86,000 jobs in November, 52,000 of which were temporary jobs.  Previous changes were increases in October (18,000) and September (3,000), and losses in August (22,000), July (38,000), June (118,000), May (51,000), April (122,0000), and March (133,000). 

Government employment added 7,000 jobs in November, mostly teachers.  Previous changes were adds for October (46,000).  Losses were registered in September (53,000), August (18,000) and July (28,000).

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (26.7%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics.  The lowest unemployment started with Asians (7.3%) followed up by Adult women (7.9%), Whites, then Adult men (10.5%). 

The good news from this data is that the job losses seem to be lessening.  It is perhaps due to fewer jobs available to lose, but the lower figures are an encouraging sign. 

The average manufacturing workweek rose by 0.3 hours to 40.4 hours with overtime rising tro 3.4 hours.  This figure closely correlates with overall output and gives clues (when workweek hours increase) on when firms will start hiring. 

Average hourly earnings (influenced by the recent increase in the legal minimum wage) edged up $0.01 to $18.74 for November, rising for a seventh straight month.  Over the past 12 months average hourly earnings have risen 2.2%.  

Workforce:

The total Civilian labor force stands at 153.9 million (down 98,000 from October).  There are a million fewer workers in the work force than in June (154.9 million).  

The Civilian labor force usually grows as a recession winds down and optimism about finding work grows.  But as long as Americans remain anxious about their jobs, consumer spending is not expected to grow enough to power an economic rebound. 

The employment population ratio, at 58.5 percent, has declined by 4.2 percent since the recession began in December 2007.

Comparing now with the final month of the last major downturn in November 1982, the total Civilian labor force then stood at 111.1 million.  In that month, there were 11.9 million people unemployed accounting for 10.8% of the available work force (average for the year was 10.6 million unemployed with the rate at 9.7%). 

Looking at jobs needed to reduce unemployment
with the total Civilian labor force at 153.9 million:

.
To restore employment to the 5.5% level of 2008, about 6.9 million people will have to regain their job or start new jobs.  It is a tall mountain to climb. 

Ed.Note:  Government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.  With the current Civilian labor force, that means that on a permanent basis there will be roughly 12.5 million people unemployed — more than 4 million more than at the “normal” level today. 

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 60,000 households across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey.  This translates into about 110,000 individuals.  All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,025 geographic sampling units.  824 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States.  For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods. 

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out.  They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever. 

Each month, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members. 

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 290,000 of the 160 million people in the Civilian labor force.  A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive. 

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification.  This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be. 

The basic concepts of employment are: 
1.      People with jobs are employed
2.      People who are jobless, looking for jobs and available for work are unemployed. 
3.      The sum of people employed or unemployed constitute the Civilian labor force. 
4.      People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the Civilian labor force. 
5.      People who are either institutionalized in a facility (correctional, residential nursing or mental health) or on active duty with the Armed Forces are not counted. 

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results. 

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force.  They are counted separately. 

Their number has nearly doubled in the previous 12 months.

 Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment.   He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs.  Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8+%. 

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers released a report showing the plan would save or create 1.5 million jobs by the end of 2009 and 3.5 million by the end of 2010. 

A senior White House official stated that the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus plan will meet their previous estimates to save 3.5 million U.S. jobs by the end of 2010, but the unemployment rate at that time may be higher due to further deterioration in the economy.  White House officials have been careful to point out that estimated jobs created and saved have merely slowed continued job losses.

The president is now drafting a proposal to try to stimulate more hiring.  Obama plans to send Congress a list of ideas, including new tax breaks for small businesses that hire, some new spending on roads, bridges and other construction and grants to state and local governments to avoid layoffs.  Congress is not likely to take up a job-creation package until after New Year’s.

***Stimulus spending by state: 

As of December 1, 2009, of the
$326,663,100,776 announced
$300,523,356,139 (92.0%) has been made available
$145,134,241,664 (44.43%) has been paid out to the states

http://www.recovery.gov/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=homeMap

 Recession histories:

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%. 

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that included every recession since World War II.  It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. 

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently.  Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

 Recession peaks 1974-2009 

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later.  By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

 The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2008 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:

It is interesting to recognize that in most cases, unemployment peaks roughly one-third of the timeline for unemployment to return to its “normal” rate, so we can double the number of months from the Start to the Peak to expect to arrive at an approximate return to “normal.”We live in hope (again, past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Employment:

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to trend down this month (down 190,000 in October) but restarting a slowdown trend that was interrupted by a jump last month (263,000 in September, 201,000 in August (revised), 304,000 in July (revised), 467,000 in June, 345,000 in May, 539,000 in April and 633,000 in March). 

The 3-month average job layoff figure has been dropping steadily.  August through October was 232,000; July – September was 256,000; June – August was 324,000; May – July was 372,000; April – June was 450,333; March – May was 505,667.

The numbers still indicate that companies are approaching their maximum “leanness” and sustain perceptions that the economy gradually will swing to employment recovery.

The number of unemployed persons increased in October by 558,000.  Previous month increases were September (214,000), August (466,000), July (267,000), June (218,000), May (787,000), April (563,000) and March (851,000). 

Total unemployment has risen from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January to its current rate representing and additional 8.2 million workers unemployed since December 2007.  Unemployment is the highest since April 1983.  In a healthy economy, around 125,000 jobs a month must be added and filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The current rate is 10.2% and the number unemployed is at 15.7 million. 

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was little changed in October at 9.3 million.  Previous month part time figures were September (9.2 million), August (9.1 million), July (8.8 million) and June (9.0 million).   These persons had their hours cut back or were unable to find full-time jobs.  Since the start of the recession, the number of such workers has increased by 4.4 million, and has remained relatively constant since March 2009. 

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) has tripled since the start of the recession to 5.6 million since December 2007, adding 156,0000 to that number in October.  One in three (35.6%) unemployed persons are in this category. 

Ed.Note: It is possible that as consumer and business confidence is improving, more workers are starting to look for jobs again, returning to the workforce in anticipation of better employment conditions.  This drives the unemployment rate higher.

Construction job losses led the month, down 62,000 in October.  Previous month losses were September (64,000), August (65,000), July (76,000), June (79,000), May (59,000), April (110,000), and March (161,000), with a total of 1.6 million since December 2007. 

Manufacturing was a close second, down 61,000 in October.  Previous month losses were September (51,000), August (63,000), July (52,000), June (136,000), May (156,000), April (149,000) and March (161,000) with widespread job losses totaling 2.1 million since December 2007. 

Retail trade employment dropped by 40,000 in October.  Previous month losses were September (39,000), August (9,600), July (44,000), June (18,000), and April (47,000). 

Education and health services continued to add jobs, with payrolls increasing by 45,000 in October.  Previous month adds were September (19,000), August (52,000), July (21,000). 

Professional and business services added 18,000 jobs.  Previous changes were September (add 3,000), and losses in August (22,000),  July (38,000), June (118,000), May (51,000), April (122,0000), and March (133,000). 

Government employment stayed even for October.  Previous losses were September (53,000), August (18,000) and July (28,000).

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (27.6%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics.  The lowest unemployment started with Asians (7.5%) followed up by Adult women (8.1%), Whites, then Adult men (10.7%). 

The good news from this data, is that the job losses seem to be lessening.  It is perhaps due to fewer jobs available to lose, but the lower figures are an encouraging sign. 

The average workweek remained constant after edging down by 0.1 to 33.0 hours in August.  This figure closely correlates with overall output and gives clues (when workweek hours increase) on when firms will start hiring. 

Average hourly earnings (reflecting the recent increase in the legal minimum wage) edged up $0.05 to $18.72 for October, rising for a sixth straight month.  

 Workforce:

The total Civilian labor force stands at 153.9 million (down 31,000 from September).  There are nearly a million fewer workers in the work force than in June (154.9 million).  

The Civilian labor force usually grows as a recession winds down and optimism about finding work grows.  But as long as Americans remain anxious about their jobs, consumer spending is not expected to grow enough to power an economic rebound. 

The employment population ratio, at 58.5 percent, has declined by 4.2 percent since the recession began in December 2007.

Comparing now with the final month of the last major downturn in November 1982, the total Civilian labor force then stood at 111.1 million.  In that month, there were 11.9 million people unemployed accounting for 10.8% of the available work force (average for the year was 10.6 million unemployed with the rate at 9.7%). 

Looking at jobs needed to reduce unemployment
with the total Civilian labor force at 153.9 million:

.

To restore employment to the 5.5% level of 2008, about 7.2 million people will have to regain their job or start new jobs.  It is a tall mountain to climb. 

Ed.Note:  Government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.  With the current Civilian labor force, that means that on a permanent basis there will be roughly 12.5 million people unemployed — more than 4 million more than at the “normal” level today. 

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 60,000 households across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey.  The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results. 

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force.  They are counted separately.  Their number has nearly doubled in the previous 12 months.

 Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president’s $787 billion stimulus bill signed into law hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs.  Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8+%. 

The White House Council of Economic Advisers released a report showing the plan would save or create 1.5 million jobs by the end of 2009 and 3.5 million by the end of 2010. 

A senior White House official stated that the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus plan will meet their previous estimates to save 3.5 million U.S. jobs by the end of 2010, but the unemployment rate at that time may be higher due to further deterioration in the economy.  White House officials have been careful to point out that estimated jobs created and saved have merely slowed continued job losses.

 Stimulus spending by state: 

As of October 27, 2009, of the
$314,699,919,456 announced
$291,221,961,803 (92.5%) has been made available
$123,525,097,127 (39.25%) has been paid out to the states

http://www.recovery.gov/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=homeMap

 Recession histories:

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%. 

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart  that includes every recession since World War II.  It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. 

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently.  Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

 Recession peaks 1974-2009 

 Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later.  By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

 The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2008 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:

It is interesting to recognize that in most cases, unemployment peaks roughly one-third of the timeline for unemployment to return to its “normal” rate, so we can double the number of months from the Start to the Peak to expect to arrive at an approximate return to “normal.”

We live in hope (again, past performance is no guarantee of the future).