Employment Situation:Economic News release

The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed. This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring.

–Current: 240.58 million; up 143,000 from last month; up 1.70 million in the last 12 months (from 238.89 million).

Employment is a moving target. In a healthy economy, around 60% of those newly eligible look for employment, so about 1.18 million new jobs per year must be filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers actively looking for work.

–Current: 153.89 million; down 50,000 from last month; up 274,000 in the last 12 months (from 153.61 million). In 2011, the labor force increased by an average of 22,800 per month.

–Employed workers: 140.79 million; up 176,000 from last month; up 1.57 million in the last 12 months (from 139.22 million).

–Unemployed workers: 13.1 million; down 226,000 from last month; down 1.3 million in the last 12 months(from 14.4 million).

–Civilian population not in the labor force: 86.7 million; up 194,000 from last month; up 1.42 million in the last 12 months (from 85.276 million).

At the start of the recession, 62.7% of the population was employed. Currently it is 58.5%.

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) has dropped to 8.5 percent, the lowest since March of 2009.

Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (does not count farm workers).

–Current: 131.9 million; up 200,000 jobs from last month; up 1.64 million the last 12 months (130.26), increased by 2.654 million since the February 2010 low (129.246 million).

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from

+158,000 to +210,000, and the change for October was revised from +80,000 to +100,000.

Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 109.93 million; up 212,000 jobs from last month; up 1.92 million in the last 12 months (108.01).

Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment.

–Current: 21.972 million; down 12,000 jobs from last month; down 80,000 in the last 12 months (22.252).

Bottom Line: December;

Both the number of unemployed persons (13.1 million) and the unemployment rate (8.5 percent) continued to trend down in December.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 200,000 in December. Over the past 12 months, nonfarm payroll employment has risen by 1.6 million. Employment in the private sector rose by 212,000 in December and by 1.9 million over the year.

The strongest increases were in transportation and warehousing (+50,000), retail trade (+28,000), food services(+24,000), manufacturing (+23,000), health care (+23,000).

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) declined by 371,000 to 8.1 million in December. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

About 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in December, little different from a year earlier. Among the marginally attached, there were 945,000 discouraged workers in December, a decrease of 373,000 from a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them.

Some 650,000 workers aged 16 to 24 found employment in the past three months, the biggest spike for that age group since the recession began, according to BLS figures.

In December, the manufacturing sector accounted for 28 percent of mass layoff events and 30 percent of associated initial claims in the private economy. A year earlier, manufacturing made up 25 percent of events and 30 percent of initial claims. Within manufacturing, the numbers of mass layoff claimants in December 2011 were greatest in transportation equipment, food, and textile mills.

But for all of 2011, the total numbers of mass layoff events and initial jobless claims declined to their lowest levels since 2007, led by manufacturing, construction, and retail trade.

Young Americans were hit harder than most other groups during the Great Recession. Dubbed by some as “the lost generation,” the unemployment rate for college graduates age 24 and younger hit an all-time high in 2010.

Since August of this year however, young people have been flooding the workforce. They account for nearly two-thirds of the rise in employment in the past three months, with older workers making up the rest. Those in the middle saw their employment levels drop by 212,000.

It’s likely they are finding work at retailers, restaurants and other service-related employers. These industries have been boosting their payrolls lately and their workforce often skews to the younger age level.

Many young workers have given up on their career aspirations for the time being. Instead, they take jobs out of their fields or go back to school to wait out the economic storm. Some settle for part-time work, while others just sit on the sidelines.

The competition for positions is particularly intense for younger workers, since workers have their pick of candidates, many with much more experience who are willing to work cheap, said Carl Van Horn, director of Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University. That can be discouraging for those trying to land their first jobs.

About 60% of recent graduates have not been able to find a full-time job in their chosen profession, according to job placement firm Adecco.

And for those just entering the workplace, a cycle of long-term unemployment can affect their career plans for years to come.

One college graduate left Cornell University with a degree in architecture and six summers of internships at top firms in New York, Milan and London. But after graduating in December 2008, just as job losses in the economy were reaching a peak, she was confronted with a very cold reception into the labor force. She traveled to China for a year, and found architecture work plentiful in the building boom there. But when she returned home, not much had improved, and no one was hiring. She has left behind her hopes for a career as an architect and has started her own fabric design business. “Perhaps I should have stayed in China,” she commented.

Long stretches of unemployment are only part of the problem young job seekers face. Adecco also found that 18% of recent grads have been forced to turn to full-time jobs outside their field of study, often jobs for which a college degree is not required. Many others are underemployed, or working part-time or temporary jobs and internships.

With hiring on the rise, this year’s college grads will find a somewhat better job market waiting for them after graduation.

But those already hurt by the recession might not bounce back so quickly. According to one study, the drag on income lasts an average of 10 years, since the worse the recession, the longer it takes to get earnings and a career back on track.

Early last year, 75 percent of the unemployed labor force were receiving benefit checks. The figure is now 48 percent. Nearly one-third of America’s unemployed have had no job is more than a year. Nearly 46 million unemployed are no longer eligible for benefits and are surviving on food stamps.

The U.S. economy has remained weak and an analysis of long-term unemployment data suggests that about 2 million people have used up their 99 weeks of benefit checks and still cannot find work. Contributing to the unemployed who are not receiving benefits are college graduates or others seeking jobs for the first time. They aren’t eligible since only those who have lost a job through no fault of their own qualify for benefits.

Consumer Confidence Survey

For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:

• Consumer Confidence Index^® (short-term outlook) improved in November increasing to 64.5 from last month’s 55.2 (1985=100).
• Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) increased to 46.7 from last month’s 38.3 rating.
• Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) increased to 76.4 from last month’s level of 66.4 on American optimism.

Americans are becoming optimistic about the present or the future.

Household Survey Data

Nonfarm payroll employment gained 200,000 in December. Previous month changes were: November (+100,000); October (+112,000); September (+210,000); August (+104,000); July (+127,000); June (+20,000); May (+53,000); April (+217,000); March (+194,000); February (+235,000); January (+68,000); December (+121,000).

Census workers peaked at 564,000 workers in May 2010.

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: October through December (+137,333); July through September (+147,000); April through June (+96,667).

Between January 2007 and December 2009, 6.9 million workers were displaced from jobs they had held for 3 years or more. By January 2010, 49 percent of them were reemployed, but not necessarily in the same industries they had worked before.

Average weekly hours and overtime

The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.8 hours;average hourly and weekly earnings held steady at $19.62 with weekly earnings at $663.16, compared with 12 months ago when they were $645.62.

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.22 percent while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 3.0 percent. Cost for food at home has increased by 6.0 percent, gasoline by 9.9 percent, and fuel oil by 18.0 percent. The CPI rose 3.0 percent in 2011 after a 1.5 percent increase in 2010. This was the largest December-December increase since 2007.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) decreased by 371,000 to 8.1 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (-273,000) or could only find part-time work (-77,000). The number of persons working part time for non-economic reasons increased by 9,000.

The number of persons not in the labor force but marginally attached to the labor force remained relatively constant, decreasing by 51,000 to 2.54 million (about the same as a year earlier when it was 2.53 million). These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They were not considered part of the labor force because they had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks.

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workersdecreased by 151,000 in the current month to 945,000. These are persons no longer looking for work. This number has decreased by 373,000 from a year earlier.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) decreased by 92,000 to 5.59 million this month. This is more than 4.2 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.327 million). 42.6% unemployed persons are in this category or 3.6% of the work force. In 2009, 3.42 million were added to that number, but in 2010 only 308,000 were added. So far in 2011, that number has decreased by 833,000.

The average duration of unemploymenthas decreased to 40.8 weeks. In January it was37.1 weeks.At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed regain employment in 21.0 weeks, about the same as a year ago.

The long-term unemployed number is down by 1.1 million workers since the May 2010 high of 6.71 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (23.1%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (6.8%), followed up by Adult women (7.9%), Whites then Adult men (8.0%).

Establishment Survey Data

Construction gained 17,000 jobs in December. Previous month changes were November (-12,000); October (-10,000); September (+31,000): August (-14,000); July (+10,000);June (-7,000); May (+3,000); April (+4,000); March (+5,000); February (+30,000); January (-32,000); December (-16,000).

The quarterly average construction job data has three-month averages at: October through December (-1,667); July through September (+9,000); April through June (0).

Currently, there are 5.544 million construction jobs, an increase of 46,000 from a year ago (5.498 million). In December 2007, there were 7.487 million.

Manufacturing gained 23,000 jobs in December. Previous month changes were November (+1,000); October (+10,000); September(-1,000): August (-1,000); July (+34,000);June (+14,000);May (-2,000); April (+28,000), March (+20,000);February (+33,000); January (+49,000);December (+14,000).

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: October through December (+11,333); July through September (+10,667); April through June (+13,333).

Currently, there are 11.79 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 225,000 from a year ago (11.565 million). In December 2007, there were 13.74 million.

The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 29^th consecutive month. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 53.1. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

The 18 manufacturing industries reporting growth were led by: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products.

Retail trade gained 27,900 jobs in December. Previous month changes were November (+38,800); October (+15,500); September (+23,100); August (+2,500); July (+28,500);June (+11,500);May (+2,800), April (+64,100); March (-5,600);February (-8,100); January (+27,500);December (+2,800); November(-15,600).

The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: October through December (+27,400); July through September (+18,033); April through June (+26,133).

Currently, there are 14.686 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 239,000 from a year ago (14.447 million). In December 2007, there were 15.58 million.

Employment in retail trade has increased by 338,000 jobs since its low in December 2009 (14.348 million).

Professional and Business Services gained 12,000 jobs in December. Previous month changes were November (+19,000); October (+30,000); September (+54,000); August (+45,000); July (+39,000); June (zero); May (+44,000); April (+45,000); March (+75,000);February (+44,000); January (+31,000); December (+54,000).

Professional and Business services consist of legal, accounting, management consulting, administrative and support services. In hard times, they are the first to be trimmed. In recovery, the jobs grow in these fields, as employers emerge from survival mode.

The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: October through December (+20,667); July through September (+46,000); April through June (+29,667).

Currently, there are 17.364 million professional and business services jobs, an increase of 462,000 jobs from a year ago (16.902 million). In December 2007, there were 18.052 million.

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 981,000 jobs since its low in September 2009(16.383 million).

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional and Business Services) lost 7,500 jobs in December. Previous month changes were November (+11,200); October (+5,000); September (+24,700); August (+22,600); July (+13,500); June (-7,000); May (-1,000); April (-5,400); March (+30,000); February (+22,700); January (-11,400); December (+38,100); November (+26,800).

The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: October through December (+2,900); July through September (+20,267); April through June (-4,467).

Currently, there are 2.303 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 96,000 from a year ago (2.207 million). In December 2007, there were 2.55 million.

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.

Educational Services gained 100 jobs in December. Previous month changes were November (+12,300); October (+7,500); September (+10,200); August (+4,600); July (+15,800);June (-900);May (-4,900); April (+6,200); March (-2,500);February (+4,000); January (-100); December (+5,400); November (+6,800).

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: October through December (+6,633); July through September (+10,200); April through June (+133).

Currently, there are 3.256 million educational services jobs, an increase of 76,000 from a year ago (3.18 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 28,700 jobs in December. Previous month changes were November (+18,700); October (+30,300); September (+46,100); August (+34,100); July (+37,400);June (+18,800);May (+26,000), April (+34,000); March(+36,000);February (+36,200); January (+12,900);December (+27,900); November (+30,900).

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: October through December (+25,900); July through September (+39,200); April through June (+26,267).

Currently, there are 16.931 million health care and social assistance jobs, an increase of 350,000 from a year ago (16.581 million).

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.354 million jobs since December 2007(15.577 million).

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 12,000 jobs in December. Previous month changes were November (-20,000); October (-22,000); September (-10,000); August (+15,000); July (-46,000); June (-34,000); May (-46,000); April (-24,000); March (-25,000); February (-30,000); January (-14,000); December (-18,000); November (-35,000).

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: October through December (-18,000); July through September (-13,667); April through June (-34,667).

Currently, there are 21.972 million jobs, a decrease of 720,000jobs from a year ago (22.252 million). In December 2007, there were 22.377 million.

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.205 million jobs, a decrease of 5,300 jobs from a year ago (2.21 million). In December 2007, there were 1.974 million.

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 612,100 jobs, a decrease of 31,300jobs from a year ago (643,400). In December 2007, there were 783,000.

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.407 million jobs, a decrease of 14,600 from a year ago (2.393 million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.69 million jobs, a decrease of 74,700 from a year ago (2.747 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.84 million jobs, a decrease of 113,000 from a year ago (7.952 million). In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.240 million jobs, a decrease of 67,700 from a year ago (6.307 million). In December 2007, there were 6.428 million.

Employment explained:

To restore employment to the 5.5% level, 4.63 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.

The government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.

To get to the 8% level, 786,040 workers need jobs. 12.311 million workers will still be unemployed under the new standard.

The Civilian labor force has increased in the past 12 months by 27,400.

Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries and local jobs.

Our recession history of unemployment:

Over the last 12 months, net 1.671 million jobs were filled in the Civilian labor force, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

Where are the jobs? 

It comes as no surprise that the occupations with the largest job growth in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.).

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 72,000 households from 754 sample areas across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey. This translates into about 110,000 individuals. All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,007 geographic sampling units, each totally within their state borders and 754 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States. For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods.

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.

Each month, during the week containing the 19th day, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members.

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 0.2 percent (31,000) of the 153.89 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification. This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be.

The basic concepts of employment are:

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results.

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force. They are counted separately.

Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment. He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs. Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8%.

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The president sent The Small Business Jobs and Wages Tax Cut to Congress on January 10, 2010 to try to stimulate more hiring. It focused on small businesses, because as the president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America.” The proposal included:

• Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
• Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
• Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.

• The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
• There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

• There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

President Obama noted that this proposal would be worked into the various other proposals that have already advanced in Congress, such as The HIRING Act of 2010 and The Jobs for Main Street Bill of 2010.

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program (signed into law by President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008) cost much less than expected. Originally expected to exceed $300 billion, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), as of December 10, 2010 estimates the program will cost only $19 billion, freeing up more than $200 billion to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits.

Stimulus spending by state

Updated Jan 20, 2012;
$502,410,902,091 has been awarded
$442,039,812,445 (88.0%) has been paid out to the states

Read: How the Stimulus Is Changing America

Recession histories:

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009.

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade.

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%.

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II. It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak.

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently. Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

Recession peaks 1974-2011:

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later. By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2007 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:

The last time Americans suffered through an unemployment peak of this magnitude was in 1982, that took roughly seven years to return to a “normal” rate. But it was followed almost immediately by another upsurge which took another eight years to correct. The total recovery time was nineteen years from the peak. We can only hope that this recovery is shorter. And it can be shorter if consumers focus on ‘made or grown in America.’

A closer look at unemployment for this recession only:

We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

The next Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: December 2011 released January 6, 2012

The last Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: October 2011

Employment Situation:Economic News release

The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed. This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring.

–Current: 240.4 million; up 172,000 from last month; up 1.73 million in the last 12 months (from 238.72 million).

Employment is a moving target. In a healthy economy, around 60% of those newly eligible look for employment, so about 1.035 million new jobs per year must be filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers actively looking for work.

–Current: 153.88 million; down 315,000 from last month; down 67,000 in the last 12 months (from 153.95 million). On average the labor force is decreasing by 558 workers per month.

–Employed workers: 140.58 million; up 278,000 from last month; up 1.67 million in the last 12 months (from 139.91 million).

–Unemployed workers: 13.30 million; down 594,000 from last month; down 1.74 million in the last 12 months(from 15.04 million).

–Civilian population not in the labor force: 86.56 million; up 487,000 from last month; up 1.79 million in the last 12 months (from 84.765 million).

At the start of the recession, 62.7% of the population was employed. Currently it is 58.5%.

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) has dropped to 8.6 percent, the lowest since March of 2009.

Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (does not count farm workers).

–Current: 131.708 million; up 120,000 jobs from last month; up 1.60 million the last 12 months (130.108), increased by 2.46 million since the February 2010 low (129.246 million).

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +158,000 to +210,000, and the change for October was revised from +80,000 to +100,000.

Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 109.719 million; up 140,000 jobs from last month; up 1.88 million in the last 12 months (107.841).

Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment.

–Current: 21.989 million; down 20,000 jobs from last month; down 278,000 in the last 12 months (22.267).

Bottom Line: November:

Unemployment rate fell 0.4 percent to 8.6 percent, representing 594,000 fewer people looking for work. Many of these jobs are seasonal that will end with the holiday season. The good news is that these jobs will provide funds for families who otherwise would have coal in their Christmas stockings. The not-so-good news is that half of the reduction came from a decrease in the Civilian labor force which declined to 64 percent of the eligible population.

According to the PayScale Index that tracks changes in compensation for full-time, private-sector employees, salaries for people with equal skills and qualifications have been trending lower since the end of 2008, when the recession was at its peak. For those hired now, starting salaries are lower than then.

Employment rose in a number of service-providing industries including clothing retail (+27,000), food services and drinking places (+33,000), professional and business services (+33,000) and health care (+17,000) while government employment continued to trend down with the U.S. Postal Service losing 5,000 jobs.

Since the employment depression in December 2009, retailers have added an average of 14,000 jobs per month. Many of these jobs went to workers who were formerly in higher paid positions. In the previous 12 months, leisure and hospitality added 253,000 jobs. Over the past 12 months, health care has added an average of 27,000 jobs per month. Employment in both state and local governments has been trending down since the second half of 2008.

Long term unemployed workers, those jobless for 27 weeks or more still accounts for 43% of all the unemployed and 3.7% of the total work force. The number is down by 1.02 million from the May 2010 high of 6.7 million, but we still have far to go. Marking progress by year, 3.4 million were added to the number in 2009, but 2010 saw a decrease of 308,000. So far this year, the number has decreased by 750,000.

When there are more jobs than the talent to fill them, workers were attracted with salaries above market wage. Today, there are fewer jobs, and businesses have their pick. Since they cannot reduce the salaries of their existing workforce without risking losing their experience, they offer less to new hires.

Companies are also offering jobs to lesser qualified applicants with fewer credentials who can still do the job effectively, but will accept lower compensation.

This can be tough for a seasoned worker with a solid career history, but working is better than being unemployed with the spectre of unemployment benefits running out before a better position can be secured. Workers should research objective salary information and consider employee benefits like health insurance and how the job will fit with their life.

Early last year, 75 percent of the unemployed labor force were receiving benefit checks. The figure is now 48 percent. Nearly one-third of America’s unemployed have had no job is more than a year. Nearly 46 million unemployed are no longer eligible for benefits and are surviving on food stamps.

The U.S. economy has remained weak and an analysis of long-term unemployment data suggests that about 2 million people have used up their 99 weeks of benefit checks and still cannot find work.

Contributing to the unemployed who are not receiving benefits are college graduates or others seeking jobs for the first time. They aren’t eligible since only those who have lost a job through no fault of their own qualify for benefits.

Washington lawmakers will decide whether to continue the extended benefits by the end of this year. If the program ends, nearly 2.2 million people will be cut off by February 2012.

Congress has extended the program nine times, but it will be the first time the Republican-led House will vote on the issue and they might balk at the $45 billion cost.  

Consumer Confidence Survey

For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:

• Consumer Confidence Index^® (short-term outlook) improved in November increasing to 56.0 from last month’s 40.9 (1985=100).
• Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) increased to 38.3 from last month’s 27.1 rating.
• Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) increased to 67.8 from last month’s level of 50.0 on American optimism.

Americans are beconing optimistic about the present or the future.

Household Survey Data

Nonfarm payroll employment gained 120,000 in November. Previous month changes were: October (+100,000); September (+210,000); August (+104,000); July (+127,000); June (+20,000); May (+53,000); April (+217,000); March (+194,000); February (+235,000); January (+68,000); December (+121,000); November (+93,000).

Census workers peaked at 564,000 workers in May 2010.

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+143,000); June through August 1(+83,667); March through May (+139,667).

Between January 2007 and December 2009, 6.9 million workers were displaced from jobs they had held for 3 years or more. By January 2010, 49 percent of them were reemployed, but not necessarily in the same industries they had worked before.

Average weekly hours and overtime

The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.6 hours;average hourly and weekly earnings held steady at $19.54 with weekly earnings at $656.54, compared with 12 months ago when they were $644.54.

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 1.86 percent while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 3.4 percent. Cost for food at home has increased by 5.9 percent, gasoline by 19.7 percent, and fuel oil by 25.0 percent.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) decreased by 378,000 to 8.5 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (-296,000) or could only find part-time work (-105,000). The number of persons working part time for non-economic reasons decreased by 36,000.

The number of persons not in the labor force but marginally attached to the labor force remained relatively constant, increasing by 36,000 to 2.59 million (about the same as a year earlier when it was 2.53 million). These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They were not considered part of the labor force because they had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks.

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workers increased by 129,000 in the current month to 1.1 million. These are persons no longer looking for work. This number has decreased by 186,000 from a year earlier.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) decreased by 185,000 to 5.69 million this month. This is nearly 4.3 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.327 million). 43% unemployed persons are in this category or 3.7% of the work force. In 2009, 3.42 million were added to that number, but in 2010 only 308,000 were added. So far in 2011, that number has decreased by 750,000.

The average duration of unemploymenthas increased to 40.9 weeks.A year ago it was33.9 weeks.At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed regain employment in 21.6 weeks, about the same as a year ago.

The long-term unemployed number is down by 1.02 million workers since the May 2010 high of 6.71 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (23.7%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (6.5%), followed up by Adult women (7.8%), Whites then Adult men (8.3%).

Establishment Survey Data

Construction lost 12,000 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (-15,000); September (+31,000): August (-14,000); July (+10,000);June (-7,000); May (+3,000); April (+4,000); March (+5,000); February (+30,000); January (-32,000); December (-16,000); November (-2,000).

The quarterly average construction job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+1,333); June through August 1(-3,667); March through May (+4,000).

Currently, there are 5.522 million construction jobs, an increase of 18,000 from a year ago (5.504 million). In December 2007, there were 7.487 million.

Manufacturing gained 2,000 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+6,000); September(-1,000): August (-1,000); July (+34,000);June (+14,000);May (-2,000); April (+28,000), March (+20,000);February (+33,000); January (+49,000);December (+14,000); November (+15,000).

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+2,333); June through August 1(+15,667); March through May (+15,333).

Currently, there are 11.764 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 210,000 from a year ago (11.554 million). In December 2007, there were 13.74 million.

The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 28^th consecutive month. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 52.7, up by 1.9%. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 8 are reporting growth: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Paper Products.

Retail trade gained 49,800 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+12,700); September (+23,100); August (+2,500); July (+28,500);June (+11,500);May (+2,800), April (+64,100); March (-5,600);February (-8,100); January (+27,500);December (+2,800); November(-15,600).

The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+28,533); June through August 1(+14,167); March through May (+19,509).

Currently, there are 14.667 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 226,100 from a year ago (14.441 million). In December 2007, there were 15.58 million.

Employment in retail trade has increased by 319,000 jobs since its low in December 2009 (14.348 million).

Professional and Business Services gained 33,000 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+39,000); September (+54,000); August (+45,000); July (+39,000); June (zero); May (+44,000); April (+45,000); March (+75,000);February (+44,000); January (+31,000); December (+54,000); November (+85,000)

Professional and Business services consist of legal, accounting, management consulting, administrative and support services. In hard times, they are the first to be trimmed. In recovery, the jobs grow in these fields, as employers emerge from survival mode.

The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+42,000); June through August 1(+24,667); March through May (+54,667).

Currently, there are 17.365 million professional and business services jobs, an increase of 521,000 jobs from a year ago (16.844 million). In December 2007, there were 18.052 million.

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 982,000 jobs since its low in September 2009(16.383 million).

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional and Business Services) gained 22,300 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+15,800); September (+24,700); August (+22,600); July (+13,500); June (-7,000); May (-1,000); April (-5,400); March (+30,000); February (+22,700); January (-11,400); December (+38,100); November (+26,800).

The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+20,933); June through August 1(+9,700); March through May (+21,367).

Currently, there are 2.333 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 169,100 from a year ago (2.164 million). In December 2007, there were 2.55 million.

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.

Educational Services gained 8,300 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+6,700); September (+10,100); August (+4,600); July (+15,800);June (-900);May (-4,900); April (+6,200); March (-2,500);February (+4,000); January (-100); December (+5,400); November (+6,800).

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+8,367); June through August 1(+6,500); March through May (-400).

Currently, there are 3.25 million educational services jobs, an increase of 71,200 from a year ago (3.177 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 18,700 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+30,300); September (+46,100); August (+34,100); July (+37,400);June (+18,800);May (+26,000), April (+34,000); March(+36,000);February (+36,200); January (+12,900);December (+27,900); November (+30,900).

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+31,700); June through August 1(+30,100); March through May (+32,000).

Currently, there are 16.901 million health care and social assistance jobs, an increase of 346,000 from a year ago (16.555 million).

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.295 million jobs since December 2007(15.577 million).

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 20,000 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (-17,000); September (-10,000); August (+15,000); July (-46,000); June (-34,000); May (-46,000); April (-24,000); March (-25,000); February (-30,000); January (-14,000); December (-18,000); November (-35,000).

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: September through November (-15,600); June through August 1(-21,667); March through May (-31,667).

Currently, there are 21.989 million jobs, a decrease of 278,000jobs from a year ago (22.267 million). In December 2007, there were 22.377 million.

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.205 million jobs, a decrease of 4,400 jobs from a year ago (2.200 million). In December 2007, there were 1.974 million.

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 612,400 jobs, a decrease of 30,700jobs from a year ago (643,100). In December 2007, there were 783,000.

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.406 million jobs, a decrease of 13,400 from a year ago (2.393 million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.667 million jobs, a decrease of 84,300 from a year ago (2.751 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.855 million jobs, a decrease of 107,000 from a year ago (7.962 million). In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.244 million jobs, a decrease of 72,400 from a year ago (6.317 million). In December 2007, there were 6.428 million.

Employment explained:

To restore employment to the 5.5% level, 4.84 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.

The government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.

To get to the 8% level, 992,360 workers need jobs. 12.31 million workers will still be unemployed under the new standard.

The Civilian labor force has decreased in the past 12 months by 67,000.

Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries and local jobs.

Our recession history of unemployment: 

Over the last 12 months, net 1.671 million jobs were filled in the Civilian labor force, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

Where are the jobs?

It comes as no surprise that the occupations with the largest job growth in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.).

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 72,000 households from 754 sample areas across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey. This translates into about 110,000 individuals. All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,007 geographic sampling units, each totally within their state borders and 754 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States. For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods.

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.

Each month, during the week containing the 19th day, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members.

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 0.2 percent (30,000) of the 153.9 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification. This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be.

The basic concepts of employment are:

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results.

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force. They are counted separately.

Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment. He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs. Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8%.

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The president sent The Small Business Jobs and Wages Tax Cut to Congress on January 10, 2010 to try to stimulate more hiring. It focused on small businesses, because as the president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America.” The proposal included:

• Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
• Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
• Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.

• The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
• There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

• There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

President Obama noted that this proposal would be worked into the various other proposals that have already advanced in Congress, such as The HIRING Act of 2010 and The Jobs for Main Street Bill of 2010.

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program (signed into law by President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008) cost much less than expected. Originally expected to exceed $300 billion, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), as of December 10, 2010 estimates the program will cost only $19 billion, freeing up more than $200 billion to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits.

Stimulus spending by state

Updated Dec 09, 2011;

$498,063,280,505 has been awarded
$434,254,279,183 (87.2%) has been paid out to the states

Read: How the Stimulus Is Changing America

Recession histories:

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009.

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade.

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%.

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II. It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak.

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently. Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

Recession peaks 1974-2011:

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later. By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2007 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:

The last time Americans suffered through an unemployment peak of this magnitude was in 1982, that took roughly seven years to return to a “normal” rate. But it was followed almost immediately by another upsurge which took another eight years to correct. The total recovery time was nineteen years from the peak. We can only hope that this recovery is shorter. And it can be shorter if consumers focus on ‘made or grown in America.’

A closer look at unemployment for this recession only:

We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

The next Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: December 2011 released January 6, 2012

The last Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: October 2011

Consumer Confidence Survey

For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:

• Consumer Confidence Index^® (short-term outlook) decreased to 39.8 from last month’s 46.4 (1985=100).
• Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) decreased to 26.3 from last month’s 33.3 rating.
• Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) decreased to 48.7 from last month’s level of 55.1 on American optimism.

Americans are not happy about the present or the future.

Household Survey Data

Nonfarm payroll employment gained 80,000 in October. Previous month changes were: September (+158,000); August (+104,000[rev]); July (+127,000); June (+20,000); May (+53,000); April (+217,000); March (+194,000); February (+235,000); January (+68,000); December (+121,000); November (+93,000); October (+210,000).

Census workers peaked at 564,000 workers in May 2010.

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: August through October (+114,000); May through July(+66,667); February through April (+215,333).

Between January 2007 and December 2009, 6.9 million workers were displaced from jobs they had held for 3 years or more. By January 2010, 49 percent of them were reemployed, but not necessarily in the same industries they had worked before.

Average weekly hours and overtime

The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.7[+.1] hours;average hourly and weekly earnings increased slightly to $19.53[+0.10] with weekly earnings at $658.16.

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 1.9 percent while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 3.9 percent. Cost for food at home has increased by 6.3 percent, gasoline by 33.3 percent, and fuel oil by 33.4 percent.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) decreased by 374,000 to 8.9 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (-62,000) or could only find part-time work (-221,000). The number of persons working part time for non-economic reasons increased by 84,000.

The number of persons not in the labor force but marginally attached to the labor forceincreased by 44,000 to 2.55 million).These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks and so were not considered part of the labor force. This number is down by 47,000 from 2.60 million a year ago.

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workersdecreased by 70,000 in the current month to 967,000. These are persons no longer looking for work. This number has decreased by 252,000 from a year earlier.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) decreased by 366,000 to 5.88 million this month. This is more than 4.4 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.327 million). 42.4% unemployed persons are in this category or 3.8% of the work force. In 2009, 3.42 million were added to that number, but in 2010 only 308,000 were added. So far in 2011, that number has decreased by 358,000.

The average duration of unemployment has increased to 39.4 weeks. A year ago it was 33.9 weeks. At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed regain employment in 20.8 weeks, 0.5 more than a year ago.

The long-term unemployed number is down by 834,000 workers since the May 2010 high of 6.71 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (24.1%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (7.3%), followed up by Adult women (8.0%), Whites then Adult men (8.8%).

Establishment Survey Data

Construction lost 20,000 jobs in October. Previous month changes were September (+26,000): August (-14,000); July (+10,000);June (-7,000); May (+3,000); April (+4,000); March (+5,000); February (+30,000); January (-32,000); December (-16,000); November (-2,000); October (+4,000).

The quarterly average construction job data has three-month averages at: August through October (-24,000); May through July(+2,000); February through April (+13,000).

Currently, there are 5.525 million construction jobs, an increase of 31,000 from a year ago (5.512 million). In December 2007, there were 7.5 million.

Manufacturing gained 5,000 jobs in October. Previous month changes were September(-3,000): August (-1,000); July (+34,000);June (+14,000);May (-2,000); April (+28,000), March (+20,000);February (+33,000); January (+49,000);December (+14,000); November (+15,000); October (-4,000).

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: August through October (+333); May through July(+15,333); February through April (+27,000).

Currently, there are 11.759 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 220,000 from a year ago (11.539 million). In December 2007, there were 13.73 million.

The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 27^th consecutive month. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 50.8. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 8 are reporting growth led by Computer & Electronic Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Retail trade gained 17,800 jobs in October. Previous month changes were September (+13,300); August (+2,500); July (+28,500);June (+11,500);May (+2,800), April (+64,100); March (-5,600);February (-8,100); January (+27,500);December (+2,800); November(-15,600); October (+38,200).

The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: August through October (+11,500); May through July(+14,267); February through April (+16,800).

Currently, there are 14.612 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 156,100 from a year ago (14.456 million). In December 2007, there were 15.57 million.

Employment in retail trade has increased by 264,000 since its low in December 2009 (14.348 million).

Professional and Business Services gained 32,000 jobs in October. Previous month changes were September (+50,000); August (+45,000); July (+39,000); June (zero); May (+44,000); April (+45,000); March (+75,000);February (+44,000); January (+31,000); December (+54,000); November (+85,000); October (+40,000)

Professional and Business services consist of legal, accounting, management consulting, administrative and support services. In hard times, they are the first to be trimmed. In recovery, the jobs grow in these fields, as employers emerge from survival mode.

The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: August through October (+42,333); May through July(+27,667); February through April (+93,000).

Currently, there are 17.321 million professional business services jobs, an increase of 562,000 from a year ago (16.759 million). In December 2007, there were 18.05 million.

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 938,000 jobs since its low in September 2009(16.383 million).

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional and Business Services) gained 15,000 jobs in October. Previous month changes were September (+21,100); August (+22,600); July (+13,500); June (-7,000); May (-1,000); April (-5,400); March (+30,000); February (+22,700); January (-11,400); December (+38,100); November (+26,800); October (+27,200)

The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: August through October (+19,567); May through July(+1,833); February through April (+15,767).

Currently, there are 2.306 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 169,100 from a year ago (2.137 million). In December 2007, there were 2.55 million.

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.

Educational Services gained 11,000 jobs in October. Previous month changes were September (+11,900); August (+4,600); July (+15,800);June (-,900);May (-4,900); April (+6,200); March (-2,500);February (+4,000); January (-100); December (+5,400); November (+6,800); October (+25,000).

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: August through October (+9,167); May through July(+3,333); February through April (+2,567).

Currently, there are 3.248 million educational services jobs, an increase of 78,500 from a year ago (3.170 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 16,300 jobs in October. Previous month changes were September (+46,100); August (+34,100); July (+37,400);June (+18,800);May (+26,000), April (+34,000); March(+36,000);February (+36,200); January (+12,900);December (+27,900); November (+30,900); October (+42,100).

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: August through October (+32,167); May through July(+27,400); February through April (+35,400).

Currently, there are 16.873 million health care and social assistance jobs, an increase of 348,500 from a year ago (16.524 million).

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.295 million jobs since December 2007 (15.577 million).

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 24,000 jobs in October. Previous month changes were September (-33,000); August (+15,000); July (-46,000); June (-34,000); May (-46,000); April (-24,000); March (-25,000); February (-30,000); January (-14,000); December (-18,000); November (-35,000); October (+17,000).

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: August through October (-14,000); May through July(-42,000); February through April (-26,333).

Currently, there are 21.979 million jobs, a decrease of 323,000jobs from a year ago (22.302 million). In December 2007, there were 22.38 million.

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.195 million jobs, a decrease of 5,300 jobs from a year ago (2.200 million). In December 2007, there were 1.974 million.

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 617,500 jobs, a decrease of 29,100jobs from a year ago (646,600). In December 2007, there were 781,300.

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.393 million jobs, a decrease of 13,900 from a year ago (2.394 million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.665 million jobs, a decrease of 86,900 from a year ago (2.752 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.862 million jobs, a decrease of 118,400 from a year ago (7.980 million). In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.247 million jobs, a decrease of 81,400 from a year ago (6.329 million). In December 2007, there were 6.428 million.

Employment explained:

To restore employment to the 5.5% level, 5.42 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.

The government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 7% from its current 5.5% level.

To get to the 7% level, 3.10 million workers need jobs. 10.793 million workers will still be unemployed under the new standard.

The Civilian labor force has increased in the past 12 months by 238,000.

Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries and local jobs.

Our recession history of unemployment:

Over the last 12 months, net 1.218 million jobs were filled in the Civilian labor force, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

Where are the jobs?

It comes as no surprise that the occupations with the largest job growth in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.).

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 72,000 households from 754 sample areas across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey. This translates into about 110,000 individuals. All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,007 geographic sampling units, each totally within their state borders and 754 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States. For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods.

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.

Each month, during the week containing the 19th day, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members.

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 0.2 percent (30,000) of the 154.2 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification. This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be.

The basic concepts of employment are:

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results.

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force. They are counted separately.

Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment. He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs. Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8%.