U.S. Bureau of Labor statistics:
Employment Situation:Economic News release
The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed. This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring.
–Current: 242.604 million; up 169,000 from last month; up 3.604 million in the last 12 months (from 239.0 million).
Employment is a moving target. In a healthy economy, around 60% of those newly eligible look for employment, so about 2.14 million new jobs per year must be filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.
The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers actively looking for work.
–Current: 154.707 million; down 164,000 from last month; up 1.315 million in the last 12 months (from 153.392 million). In 2011, the labor force increased by an average of 22,800 per month.
–Employed workers: 142.034 million; down 31,000 from last month; up 2.27 million in the last 12 months (from 139.764 million).
–Unemployed workers: 12.673 million; down 133,000 from last month; down 955 thousand in the last 12 months(from 13.63 million).
–Civilian population not in the labor force: 87.9 million; up 333,000 from last month; up 2.29 million in the last 12 months (from 85.61 million).
At the start of the recession, 62.7% of the population was employed. Currently it is 58.6%.
–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) remains fairly constant at 8.2 percent, the lowest since March of 2009.
Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (does not count farm workers).
–Current: 132.8 million; up 120,000 jobs from last month; up 1.9 million the last 12 months (130.9), increased by 3.575 million since the February 2010 low (129.246 million).
Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).
–Current: 110.82 million; up 121,000 jobs from last month; up 2.1 million in the last 12 months (108.725).
Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment.
–Current: 21.997 million; down 1,000 jobs from last month; down 200,000 in the last 12 months (22.197).
Bottom Line: March
Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000 in March ending a three-month run of increases exceeding 200,00. The number of unemployed persons and rate remained little changed at 12.7 million and 8.2 percent. In the prior three months, payroll employment had risen by an average of 246,000 per month.
The Civilian population increased by 169,000 and the Civilian workforce decreased by 164,000 accounting for the 333,000 who declined to join or left the work force.
There are still currently 87.897 million people “not in the labor force.” Taking out military, students, retirees and homemakers leaves roughly 24.744 million, who for a variety of personal reasons including sickness, family responsibilities, etc. are either unable or unwilling to look for work, and have not actively looked for work in the last four weeks.
The economy still has a long way to go to recapture the nearly 6 million more positions that were available before the recession began. At the current rate of job addition and hiring, the economy would not arrive at pre-recession employment levels for four more years.
The number of long-term jobless for 27 weeks and more was essentially unchanged at 5.3 million in March. They accounted for 41.9 percent of the unemployed or 3.43 percent of the civilian workforce. This is still 4.0 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007. But since April 2010, the number of long-term unemployed has fallen by 1.4 million.
Among those marginally attached to the labor force, 865,000 were discouraged workers, about the same as a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them.
Manufacturing employment rose by 37,000 in March, with gains in motor vehicles and parts , machinery, fabricated metals, and paper manufacturing. Factory employment has risen by 470,000 since a recent low point in January 2010.
Professional and business services employment rose by 31,000 in March. Employment in the industry has grown by 1.4 million since the low point in September 2009.
Voters consistently have ranked jobs and the economy as top issues for this election season.
| Age group | Employment change- Mar 2010 – March 2012 |
| 20-24 | +939,000 |
| 25-34 | +528,000 |
| 35-44 | +199,000 |
| 45-54 | -258,000 |
| 55+ | +2,851,000 |
The impressive gains among older job seekers indicate companies want experienced workers who can hit the ground running.
Recession summary:
The economy took a dive in late 2007, and the administrations of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama have struggled to reverse the loss of jobs.
Since Obama took office in 2009, various government programs and bailouts have been instituted to stimulate the economy, including Cash for Clunkers and a tax credit for home buyers.
In February 2009, Congress passed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, a stimulus package infusing $787 billion into the economy, but unemployment still soared. The average unemployment rate for 2008 was 5.8 percent, rising to 9.3 percent in 2009, and peaking at 10.1 percent in October. In 2010, the unemployment rate has hovered around 9.7 percent, dropping to 9.5 percent in June and July.
Obama and others have advertised the stimulus as preventing a depression. Republicans characterize it as wasteful, inefficient, and ineffective government spending at a time when the national debt continues to soar.
Democrats have continued to introduce smaller stimulus packages and unemployment benefits extensions, with limited success. Crossover votes from moderate Republican Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe have allowed some legislation to pass. In August 2010, the two were the only Republicans to vote with Democrats on a bill to give $10 billion to prevent layoffs of teachers, firefighters, police officers, and others.
In 2012, Bush-era tax cuts are set to expire, sparking a debate over whether they should be extended. Republicans want to keep all the tax cuts in place, but Democrats prefer to let the cuts for people in the top tax brackets expire.
For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:
- Consumer Confidence Index® (short-term outlook) decreased to 70.2 from last month’s 71.6 (1985=100).
- Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) increased to 51.0 from last month’s 46.4 rating.
- Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) decreased to 83.0 from last month’s level of 88.4 on American pessimism. Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was less than upbeat. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead decreased to 16.9 percent from 17.4 percent, however, those anticipating fewer jobs decreased to 18.0 percent from 18.5 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes declined to 14.0 percent from 15.5 percent.
Nonfarm payroll employment gained (120,000) jobs in March. Previous month changes were: February (+240,000); January (+275,000); December (+203,000); November (+157,000); October (+112,000); September (+210,000); August (+104,000); July (+127,000); June (+20,000); May (+53,000); April (+217,000); March (+194,000).
Census workers peaked at 564,000 workers in May 2010.
The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+211,667); October through December (+157,333); July though September (+147,000).
Between January 2007 and December 2009, 6.9 million workers were displaced from jobs they had held for 3 years or more. By January 2010, 49 percent of them were reemployed, but not necessarily in the same industries they had worked before.
Average weekly hours and overtime
The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.8 hours;average hourly and weekly earnings held steady at $19.68 with weekly earnings at $665.18, compared with 12 months ago when they were $649.82, an increase of 2.36% over the year.
These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.
Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 3.1 percent over the last 12 months while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 0.3 percent in March. The gasoline index continued to rise, more than offsetting a decline in the household energy index and leading to a 0.9 percent increase in the energy index. The food index rose 0.2 percent as the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased notably.
Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent. Cost for food at home has increased by 3.6 percent, gasoline by 9.0 percent, and fuel oil by 5.3 percent.
The CPI rose 2.9 percent in 2011 after a 1.5 percent increase in 2010. This was the largest December-December increase since 2007.
The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) decreased by 447,000 to 7.67 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (-365,000) or could only find part-time work (-63,000). The number of persons working part time for non-economic reasons decreased by 304,000.
The number of persons not in the labor force but marginally attached to the labor force , decreased by 25,600 to 2.35 million (a year earlier it was 2.43 million). These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They were not considered part of the labor force because they had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks.
Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workersdecreased by 14,100 in the current month to 865,000. These are persons no longer looking for work. This number has decreased by 56,000 from a year earlier.
Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) decreased by 118,000 to 5.31 million this month. This is still 4.0 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.327 million). 41.9% unemployed persons are in this category or 3.43% of the work force. In 2009, 3.42 million were added to that number, but in 2010 only 308,000 were added. In 2011, that number decreased by 833,000.
The average duration of unemploymenthas decreased this month to 39.4 weeks. Twelve months ago it was 38.9 weeks.At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed regain employment in 19.9 weeks, where twelve months ago it was 21.6 weeks.
The long-term unemployed number is down by 1.27 million workers since the May 2010 high of 6.71 million.
Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (25.0%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (6.2%), followed up by Whites, Adult women (7.4%), then Adult men (7.6%).
Construction lost 7,000 in March. Previous month changes were: February (-6,000);January (+18,000); December (+31,000); November (+1,000); October (-10,000); September (+31,000): August (-14,000); July (+10,000);June (-7,000); May (+3,000); April (+4,000); March (+5,000).
The quarterly average construction job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+1,667); October through December (+7,300); July though September (+9,000).
Currently, there are 5.551 million construction jobs, an increase of 5,500 from a year ago (5.489 million). In December 2007, there were 7.487 million.
Manufacturing gained 37,000 jobs in March. Previous month changes were: February (+31,000);January (+52,000);December (+32,000); November (+3,000); October (+10,000); September(-1,000): August (-1,000); July (+34,000);June (+14,000);May (-2,000); April (+28,000), March (+20,000).
The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+40,00); October through December (+15,000); July though September (+10,667).
Currently, there are 11.93 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 238,000 from a year ago (11.69 million). In December 2007, there were 13.74 million.
The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 32 nd consecutive month. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 53.4 percent. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.
The 15 manufacturing industries reporting growth were led by: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products.
Retail trade lost 33,800 jobs in March. Previous month changes were: February (-28,600);January (+24,900); December (+6,800); November (+33,800); October (+15,500); September (+23,100); August (+2,500); July (+28,500);June (+11,500);May (+2,800), April (+64,100); March (-5,600).
The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: January through March (12,500); October through December (+18,700); July though September (+18,000).
Currently, there are 14.694 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 131,000 from a year ago (14.563 million). In December 2007, there were 15.58 million.
Employment in retail trade has increased by 346,000 jobs since its low in December 2009 (14.348 million).
Professional and Business Services gained 31,000 jobs in March. Previous month changes were: February (+86,000);January (+79,000); December (+63,000); November (+39,000); October (+30,000); September (+54,000); August (+45,000); July (+39,000); June (zero); May (+44,000); April (+45,000); March (+75,000).
Professional and Business services consist of legal, accounting, management consulting, administrative and support services. In hard times, they are the first to be trimmed. In recovery, the jobs grow in these fields, as employers emerge from survival mode.
The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+65,300); October through December (+44,000); July though September (+46,000).
Currently, there are 17.79 million professional and business services jobs, an increase of 597,000 jobs from a year ago (17.19 million). In December 2007, there were 18.052 million.
This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.406 million jobs since its low in September 2009(16.383 million).
Temporary help services (a subset of Professional and Business Services) lost 7,500 jobs in March. Previous month changes were: February (+54,900);January (+36,400);December (+8,300); November (+19,700); October (+5,000); September (+24,700); August (+22,600); July (+13,500); June (-7,000); May (-1,000); April (-5,400); March (+30,000).
The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+27,933); October through December (+11,000); July though September (20,267).
Currently, there are 2.480 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 184,000 from a year ago (2.296 million). In December 2007, there were 2.55 million.
Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.
Educational Services gained 11,000 jobs in March. Previous month changes were: February (+91,000);January (-5,800); December (+3,600); November (+14,200); October (+7,500); September (+10,200); August (+4,600); July (+15,800);June (-900);May (-4,900); April (+6,200); March (-2,500).
The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+32,067); October through December (+8,433); July though September (+10,200).
Currently, there are 3.303 million educational services jobs, an increase of 88,000 from a year ago (3.215 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.
Health care and Social Assistance gained 26,000 jobs in March. Previous month changes were: February (+61,100);January (+43,000);December (+29,500); November (+6,200); October (+30,300); September (+46,100); August (+34,100); July (+37,400);June (+18,800);May (+26,000), April (+34,000); March(+36,000).
The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+43.367); October through December (+22,00); July though September (+39,200).
Currently, there are 16.910 million health care and social assistance jobs, an increase of 377,000 from a year ago (16.533 million).
This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.333 million jobs since December 2007(15.577 million).
Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 1,000 jobs in March. Previous month changes were: February (+7,000);January (-2,000); December (-11,000); November (-21,000); October (-22,000); September (-10,000); August (+15,000); July (-46,000); June (-34,000); May (-46,000); April (-24,000); March (-25,000); February (-30,000).
The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: January through March (-1.333); October through December (-18,000); July though September (-13,667).
Currently, there are 21.997 million jobs, a decrease of 200,000jobs from a year ago (22.197 million). In December 2007, there were 22.377 million.
Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.208 million jobs, a decrease of 31,000 jobs from a year ago (2.238 million). In December 2007, there were 1.974 million.
U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 617,200 jobs, a decrease of 23,400jobs from a year ago (640,600). In December 2007, there were 783,000.
State governments education: Currently, there are 2.409 million jobs, an increase of 26,000 from a year ago (2.383 million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.
State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.656 million jobs, a decrease of 70,000 from a year ago (2.72 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.
Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.86 million jobs, a decrease of 63,000 from a year ago (7.923 million). In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.
Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.246 million jobs, a decrease of 45,000 from a year ago (6.291 million). In December 2007, there were 6.428 million.
Employment explained:
To restore employment to the 5.5% level, 4.16 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.
The government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.
To get to the 8% level, 29,644 workers still need jobs. 12.377 million workers will still be unemployed under the new standard.
The Civilian labor force has increased in the past 12 months by 1.32 million.
Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries and local jobs.
Our recession history of unemployment:
| 14.6 | 9.5 | June 2010 | 14.6 | 9.5 | July 2010 | |
| 14.9 | 9.6 | May | 14.8 | 9.6 | August | |
| 15.1 | 9.8 | April | 14.7 | 9.6 | Sept | |
| 14.9 | 9.7 | March | 14.9 | 9.7 | Oct | |
| 14.9 | 9.7 | Feb | 15.0 | 9.8 | Nov | |
| 14.8 | 9.7 | Jan 2010 | 14.4 | 9.4 | Dec 2010 | |
| 15.2 | 9.9 | Dec 2009 | 13.9 | 9.0 | Jan 2011 | |
| 15.2 | 9.9 | Nov | 13.7 | 8.9 | Feb | |
| 15.6 | 10.1 | Oct | 13.5 | 8.8 | March | |
| 15.1 | 9.8 | Sept | 13.7 | 9.0 | April | |
| 15.0 | 9.7 | Aug | 13.9 | 9.1 | May | |
| 14.7 | 9.5 | July | 14.1 | 9.2 | June | |
| 14.8 | 9.5 | June | 13.9 | 9.1 | July | |
| 14.5 | 9.4 | May | 14.0 | 9.1 | Aug | |
| 13.7 | 8.9 | April | 14.0 | 9.1 | Sept | |
| 13.3 | 8.6 | March | 13.9 | 9.0 | Oct | |
| 12.7 | 8.2 | Feb | 13.3 | 8.6 | Nov | |
| 11.9 | 7.8 | Jan 2009 | 13.1 | 8.5 | Dec | |
| 12.7 | 8.3 | Jan 2012 | ||||
| 12.8 | 8.3 | Feb | ||||
| 12.7 | 8.2 | Mar<=Current | ||||
| 10.77 | 7.0 | <=Economist target |
Over the last 12 months, net 2.27 million jobs were filled in the Civilian labor force, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.
Where are the jobs?
It comes as no surprise that the occupations with the largest job growth in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.).
The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.
Education and employment go hand in hand.
The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).
| Unemployment by Education Level | ||||||||
| Unemployed | Not grad | Only grad | Some | College | Age over 55 | |||
| (millions) | Pct | HS | HS | college | degree | Men | Women | |
| Dec 2007 | 7.645 | 5.0% | 7.7% | 4.7% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 3.2% | 3.0% |
| Dec 2008 | 11.299 | 7.3 | 11.1 | 7.8 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 5.2 | 3.7 |
| Dec 2009 | 15.124 | 9.9 | 15.1 | 10.6 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 7.9 | 6.0 |
| Dec 2010 | 14.394 | 9.4 | 15.1 | 9.8 | 8.2 | 4.8 | 7.3 | 6.2 |
| Dec 2011 | 13.097 | 8.5 | 13.8 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 6.2 |
| Mar 2012 | 12.673 | 8.2 | 12.6 | 8.0 | 7.5 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 5.9 |
The Census Bureau surveys 72,000 households from 754 sample areas across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey. This translates into about 110,000 individuals. All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,007 geographic sampling units, each totally within their state borders and 754 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States. For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods.
Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.
Each month, during the week containing the 19th day, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members.
This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 0.2 percent (31,000) of the 154.707 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.
Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification. This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be.
The basic concepts of employment are:
| 1. | People with jobs are employed | |
| 2. | People who are jobless, looking for jobs and available for work are unemployed. | |
| 3. | The sum of people employed or unemployed constitute the Civilian labor force. | |
| 4. | People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the Civilian labor force. | |
| 5. | People who are either institutionalized in a facility (correctional, residential nursing or mental health) or on active duty with the Armed Forces are not counted. |
The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results.
The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force. They are counted separately.
The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment. He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs. Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8%.
The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.
The president sent The Small Business Jobs and Wages Tax Cut to Congress on January 10, 2010 to try to stimulate more hiring. It focused on small businesses, because as the president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America.” The proposal included:
- Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
- Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
- Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.
- The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
- There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.
- There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs
President Obama noted that this proposal would be worked into the various other proposals that have already advanced in Congress, such as The HIRING Act of 2010 and The Jobs for Main Street Bill of 2010.
Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program (signed into law by President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008) cost much less than expected. Originally expected to exceed $300 billion, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), as of December 10, 2010 estimates the program will cost only $19 billion, freeing up more than $200 billion to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits.
Updated Apr 13, 2012;
$506,587,440,728 has been awarded
$454,169,192,936 (89.65) has been paid out to the states
Read: How the Stimulus Is Changing America
Recession histories:
Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009.
Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade.
With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%.
The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.
Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).
Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II. It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.
William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak.
Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently. Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.
The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:
Recession peaks 1974-2011:
| Millions | Labor | Recession | ||||
| Unemployed | Pct | Force | Growth | Length | ||
| Start | July 1974 | 5.5 | 91.9 | |||
| Peak | May 1975 | 8.4 | 9 | 10 mos | ||
| Return | May 1979 | 5.6 | 104.9 | 0.1 | 4 yrs 10 mos | |
| Start | May 1979 | 5.6 | 104.9 | |||
| Peak | Nov 1982 | 11.9 | 10.8 | 3 yrs 6 mo | ||
| Return | Apr 1988 | 5.4 | 121.6 | 0.2 | 8 yrs 11 mos | |
| Start | Nov 1990 | 6.2 | 125.8 | |||
| Peak | May 1992 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 18 mos | ||
| Return | Dec 1994 | 5.5 | 131 | 0 | 4 yrs 1 mo | |
| Start | Nov 2001 | 5.5 | 143.7 | |||
| Peak | June 2003 | 9.2 | 6.3 | 19 mos | ||
| Return | Feb 2004 | 5.6 | 146.5 | 0 | 2 yrs 3 mos | |
| Start | Dec 2007 | 7.7 | 5 | 153.7 | ||
| Peak | Dec 2009 | 15.7 | 10.1 | 24 mos | ||
| Return | Mar 2012 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 154.7 | 0.65 | 4 yrs 3 mos |
Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later. By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.
The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.
The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2007 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:
Unemployment rates:
The last time Americans suffered through an unemployment peak of this magnitude was in 1982, that took roughly seven years to return to a “normal” rate. But it was followed almost immediately by another upsurge which took another eight years to correct. The total recovery time was nineteen years from the peak. We can only hope that this recovery is shorter. And it can be shorter if consumers focus on ‘made or grown in America.’
A closer look at unemployment for this recession only:
We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future).
The next Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: April 2012 released May 4
The last Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: February 2012
