Rightfully yours

The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed. This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring.

–Current: 242.604 million; up 169,000 from last month; up 3.604 million in the last 12 months (from 239.0 million).

Employment is a moving target. In a healthy economy, around 60% of those newly eligible look for employment, so about 2.14 million new jobs per year must be filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers actively looking for work.

–Current: 154.707 million; down 164,000 from last month; up 1.315 million in the last 12 months (from 153.392 million). In 2011, the labor force increased by an average of 22,800 per month.

–Employed workers: 142.034 million; down 31,000 from last month; up 2.27 million in the last 12 months (from 139.764 million).

–Unemployed workers: 12.673 million; down 133,000 from last month; down 955 thousand in the last 12 months(from 13.63 million).

–Civilian population not in the labor force: 87.9 million; up 333,000 from last month; up 2.29 million in the last 12 months (from 85.61 million).

At the start of the recession, 62.7% of the population was employed. Currently it is 58.6%.

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) remains fairly constant at 8.2 percent, the lowest since March of 2009.

Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (does not count farm workers).

–Current: 132.8 million; up 120,000 jobs from last month; up 1.9 million the last 12 months (130.9), increased by 3.575 million since the February 2010 low (129.246 million).

Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 110.82 million; up 121,000 jobs from last month; up 2.1 million in the last 12 months (108.725).

Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment.

–Current: 21.997 million; down 1,000 jobs from last month; down 200,000 in the last 12 months (22.197).

Bottom Line: March

Nonfarm payroll employment rose by 120,000 in March ending a three-month run of increases exceeding 200,00. The number of unemployed persons and rate remained little changed at 12.7 million and 8.2 percent. In the prior three months, payroll employment had risen by an average of 246,000 per month.

The Civilian population increased by 169,000 and the Civilian workforce decreased by 164,000 accounting for the 333,000 who declined to join or left the work force.

There are still currently 87.897 million people “not in the labor force.” Taking out military, students, retirees and homemakers leaves roughly 24.744 million, who for a variety of personal reasons including sickness, family responsibilities, etc. are either unable or unwilling to look for work, and have not actively looked for work in the last four weeks.

The economy still has a long way to go to recapture the nearly 6 million more positions that were available before the recession began. At the current rate of job addition and hiring, the economy would not arrive at pre-recession employment levels for four more years.

The number of long-term jobless for 27 weeks and more was essentially unchanged at 5.3 million in March. They accounted for 41.9 percent of the unemployed or 3.43 percent of the civilian workforce. This is still 4.0 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007. But since April 2010, the number of long-term unemployed has fallen by 1.4 million.

Among those marginally attached to the labor force, 865,000 were discouraged workers, about the same as a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them.

Manufacturing employment rose by 37,000 in March, with gains in motor vehicles and parts , machinery, fabricated metals, and paper manufacturing. Factory employment has risen by 470,000 since a recent low point in January 2010.

Professional and business services employment rose by 31,000 in March. Employment in the industry has grown by 1.4 million since the low point in September 2009.

Voters consistently have ranked jobs and the economy as top issues for this election season.

Age group	Employment change- Mar 2010 – March 2012
20-24	+939,000
25-34	+528,000
35-44	+199,000
45-54	-258,000
55+	+2,851,000

The impressive gains among older job seekers indicate companies want experienced workers who can hit the ground running.

Recession summary:

The economy took a dive in late 2007, and the administrations of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama have struggled to reverse the loss of jobs.

Since Obama took office in 2009, various government programs and bailouts have been instituted to stimulate the economy, including Cash for Clunkers and a tax credit for home buyers.

In February 2009, Congress passed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, a stimulus package infusing $787 billion into the economy, but unemployment still soared. The average unemployment rate for 2008 was 5.8 percent, rising to 9.3 percent in 2009, and peaking at 10.1 percent in October. In 2010, the unemployment rate has hovered around 9.7 percent, dropping to 9.5 percent in June and July.

Obama and others have advertised the stimulus as preventing a depression. Republicans characterize it as wasteful, inefficient, and ineffective government spending at a time when the national debt continues to soar.

Democrats have continued to introduce smaller stimulus packages and unemployment benefits extensions, with limited success. Crossover votes from moderate Republican Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe have allowed some legislation to pass. In August 2010, the two were the only Republicans to vote with Democrats on a bill to give $10 billion to prevent layoffs of teachers, firefighters, police officers, and others.

In 2012, Bush-era tax cuts are set to expire, sparking a debate over whether they should be extended. Republicans want to keep all the tax cuts in place, but Democrats prefer to let the cuts for people in the top tax brackets expire.

For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:

Consumer Confidence Index^®(short-term outlook) decreased to 70.2 from last month’s 71.6 (1985=100).
Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) increased to 51.0 from last month’s 46.4 rating.
Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) decreased to 83.0 from last month’s level of 88.4 on American pessimism. Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was less than upbeat. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead decreased to 16.9 percent from 17.4 percent, however, those anticipating fewer jobs decreased to 18.0 percent from 18.5 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes declined to 14.0 percent from 15.5 percent.

Nonfarm payroll employment gained (120,000) jobs in March. Previous month changes were: February (+240,000); January (+275,000); December (+203,000); November (+157,000); October (+112,000); September (+210,000); August (+104,000); July (+127,000); June (+20,000); May (+53,000); April (+217,000); March (+194,000).

Census workers peaked at 564,000 workers in May 2010.

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+211,667); October through December (+157,333); July though September (+147,000).

Between January 2007 and December 2009, 6.9 million workers were displaced from jobs they had held for 3 years or more. By January 2010, 49 percent of them were reemployed, but not necessarily in the same industries they had worked before.

The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.8 hours;average hourly and weekly earnings held steady at $19.68 with weekly earnings at $665.18, compared with 12 months ago when they were $649.82, an increase of 2.36% over the year.

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.

Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 3.1 percent over the last 12 months while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 0.3 percent in March. The gasoline index continued to rise, more than offsetting a decline in the household energy index and leading to a 0.9 percent increase in the energy index. The food index rose 0.2 percent as the index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs increased notably.

Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.7 percent. Cost for food at home has increased by 3.6 percent, gasoline by 9.0 percent, and fuel oil by 5.3 percent.

The CPI rose 2.9 percent in 2011 after a 1.5 percent increase in 2010. This was the largest December-December increase since 2007.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) decreased by 447,000 to 7.67 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (-365,000) or could only find part-time work (-63,000). The number of persons working part time for non-economic reasons decreased by 304,000.

The number of persons not in the labor force but marginally attached to the labor force , decreased by 25,600 to 2.35 million (a year earlier it was 2.43 million). These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They were not considered part of the labor force because they had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks.

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workersdecreased by 14,100 in the current month to 865,000. These are persons no longer looking for work. This number has decreased by 56,000 from a year earlier.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) decreased by 118,000 to 5.31 million this month. This is still 4.0 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.327 million). 41.9% unemployed persons are in this category or 3.43% of the work force. In 2009, 3.42 million were added to that number, but in 2010 only 308,000 were added. In 2011, that number decreased by 833,000.

The average duration of unemploymenthas decreased this month to 39.4 weeks. Twelve months ago it was 38.9 weeks.At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed regain employment in 19.9 weeks, where twelve months ago it was 21.6 weeks.

The long-term unemployed number is down by 1.27 million workers since the May 2010 high of 6.71 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (25.0%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (6.2%), followed up by Whites, Adult women (7.4%), then Adult men (7.6%).

Construction lost 7,000 in March. Previous month changes were: February (-6,000);January (+18,000); December (+31,000); November (+1,000); October (-10,000); September (+31,000): August (-14,000); July (+10,000);June (-7,000); May (+3,000); April (+4,000); March (+5,000).

The quarterly average construction job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+1,667); October through December (+7,300); July though September (+9,000).

Currently, there are 5.551 million construction jobs, an increase of 5,500 from a year ago (5.489 million). In December 2007, there were 7.487 million.

Manufacturing gained 37,000 jobs in March. Previous month changes were: February (+31,000);January (+52,000);December (+32,000); November (+3,000); October (+10,000); September(-1,000): August (-1,000); July (+34,000);June (+14,000);May (-2,000); April (+28,000), March (+20,000).

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+40,00); October through December (+15,000); July though September (+10,667).

Currently, there are 11.93 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 238,000 from a year ago (11.69 million). In December 2007, there were 13.74 million.

The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 32 ^nd consecutive month. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 53.4 percent. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

The 15 manufacturing industries reporting growth were led by: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Primary Metals; Petroleum & Coal Products.

Retail trade lost 33,800 jobs in March. Previous month changes were: February (-28,600);January (+24,900); December (+6,800); November (+33,800); October (+15,500); September (+23,100); August (+2,500); July (+28,500);June (+11,500);May (+2,800), April (+64,100); March (-5,600).

The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: January through March (12,500); October through December (+18,700); July though September (+18,000).

Currently, there are 14.694 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 131,000 from a year ago (14.563 million). In December 2007, there were 15.58 million.

Employment in retail trade has increased by 346,000 jobs since its low in December 2009 (14.348 million).

Professional and Business Services gained 31,000 jobs in March. Previous month changes were: February (+86,000);January (+79,000); December (+63,000); November (+39,000); October (+30,000); September (+54,000); August (+45,000); July (+39,000); June (zero); May (+44,000); April (+45,000); March (+75,000).

Professional and Business services consist of legal, accounting, management consulting, administrative and support services. In hard times, they are the first to be trimmed. In recovery, the jobs grow in these fields, as employers emerge from survival mode.

The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+65,300); October through December (+44,000); July though September (+46,000).

Currently, there are 17.79 million professional and business services jobs, an increase of 597,000 jobs from a year ago (17.19 million). In December 2007, there were 18.052 million.

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.406 million jobs since its low in September 2009(16.383 million).

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional and Business Services) lost 7,500 jobs in March. Previous month changes were: February (+54,900);January (+36,400);December (+8,300); November (+19,700); October (+5,000); September (+24,700); August (+22,600); July (+13,500); June (-7,000); May (-1,000); April (-5,400); March (+30,000).

The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+27,933); October through December (+11,000); July though September (20,267).

Currently, there are 2.480 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 184,000 from a year ago (2.296 million). In December 2007, there were 2.55 million.

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.

Educational Services gained 11,000 jobs in March. Previous month changes were: February (+91,000);January (-5,800); December (+3,600); November (+14,200); October (+7,500); September (+10,200); August (+4,600); July (+15,800);June (-900);May (-4,900); April (+6,200); March (-2,500).

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+32,067); October through December (+8,433); July though September (+10,200).

Currently, there are 3.303 million educational services jobs, an increase of 88,000 from a year ago (3.215 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 26,000 jobs in March. Previous month changes were: February (+61,100);January (+43,000);December (+29,500); November (+6,200); October (+30,300); September (+46,100); August (+34,100); July (+37,400);June (+18,800);May (+26,000), April (+34,000); March(+36,000).

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+43.367); October through December (+22,00); July though September (+39,200).

Currently, there are 16.910 million health care and social assistance jobs, an increase of 377,000 from a year ago (16.533 million).

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.333 million jobs since December 2007(15.577 million).

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 1,000 jobs in March. Previous month changes were: February (+7,000);January (-2,000); December (-11,000); November (-21,000); October (-22,000); September (-10,000); August (+15,000); July (-46,000); June (-34,000); May (-46,000); April (-24,000); March (-25,000); February (-30,000).

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: January through March (-1.333); October through December (-18,000); July though September (-13,667).

Currently, there are 21.997 million jobs, a decrease of 200,000jobs from a year ago (22.197 million). In December 2007, there were 22.377 million.

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.208 million jobs, a decrease of 31,000 jobs from a year ago (2.238 million). In December 2007, there were 1.974 million.

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 617,200 jobs, a decrease of 23,400jobs from a year ago (640,600). In December 2007, there were 783,000.

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.409 million jobs, an increase of 26,000 from a year ago (2.383 million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.656 million jobs, a decrease of 70,000 from a year ago (2.72 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.86 million jobs, a decrease of 63,000 from a year ago (7.923 million). In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.246 million jobs, a decrease of 45,000 from a year ago (6.291 million). In December 2007, there were 6.428 million.

Employment explained:

To restore employment to the 5.5% level, 4.16 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.

The government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.

To get to the 8% level, 29,644 workers still need jobs. 12.377 million workers will still be unemployed under the new standard.

The Civilian labor force has increased in the past 12 months by 1.32 million.

Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries and local jobs.

Our recession history of unemployment:

14.6	9.5	June 2010	14.6	9.5	July 2010
14.9	9.6	May	14.8	9.6	August
15.1	9.8	April	14.7	9.6	Sept
14.9	9.7	March	14.9	9.7	Oct
14.9	9.7	Feb	15.0	9.8	Nov
14.8	9.7	Jan 2010	14.4	9.4	Dec 2010

15.2	9.9	Dec 2009	13.9	9.0	Jan 2011
15.2	9.9	Nov	13.7	8.9	Feb
15.6	10.1	Oct	13.5	8.8	March
15.1	9.8	Sept	13.7	9.0	April
15.0	9.7	Aug	13.9	9.1	May
14.7	9.5	July	14.1	9.2	June
14.8	9.5	June	13.9	9.1	July
14.5	9.4	May	14.0	9.1	Aug
13.7	8.9	April	14.0	9.1	Sept
13.3	8.6	March	13.9	9.0	Oct
12.7	8.2	Feb	13.3	8.6	Nov
11.9	7.8	Jan 2009	13.1	8.5	Dec
			12.7	8.3	Jan 2012
			12.8	8.3	Feb
			12.7	8.2	Mar<=Current
			10.77	7.0	<=Economist target

Over the last 12 months, net 2.27 million jobs were filled in the Civilian labor force, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

Where are the jobs?

It comes as no surprise that the occupations with the largest job growth in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.).

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).

		Unemployment by Education Level
	Unemployed		Not grad	Only grad	Some	College	Age over 55
	(millions)	Pct	HS	HS	college	degree	Men	Women
Dec 2007	7.645	5.0%	7.7%	4.7%	3.8%	2.1%	3.2%	3.0%
Dec 2008	11.299	7.3	11.1	7.8	5.7	3.6	5.2	3.7
Dec 2009	15.124	9.9	15.1	10.6	8.8	4.9	7.9	6.0
Dec 2010	14.394	9.4	15.1	9.8	8.2	4.8	7.3	6.2
Dec 2011	13.097	8.5	13.8	8.7	7.7	4.1	6.1	6.2
Mar 2012	12.673	8.2	12.6	8.0	7.5	4.2	6.3	5.9

The Census Bureau surveys 72,000 households from 754 sample areas across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey. This translates into about 110,000 individuals. All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,007 geographic sampling units, each totally within their state borders and 754 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States. For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods.

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.

Each month, during the week containing the 19th day, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members.

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 0.2 percent (31,000) of the 154.707 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification. This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be.

The basic concepts of employment are:

1.		People with jobs are employed
2.		People who are jobless, looking for jobs and available for work are unemployed.
3.		The sum of people employed or unemployed constitute the Civilian labor force.
4.		People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the Civilian labor force.
5.		People who are either institutionalized in a facility (correctional, residential nursing or mental health) or on active duty with the Armed Forces are not counted.

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results.

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force. They are counted separately.

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment. He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs. Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8%.

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The president sent The Small Business Jobs and Wages Tax Cut to Congress on January 10, 2010 to try to stimulate more hiring. It focused on small businesses, because as the president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America.” The proposal included:

Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.

The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

President Obama noted that this proposal would be worked into the various other proposals that have already advanced in Congress, such as The HIRING Act of 2010 and The Jobs for Main Street Bill of 2010.

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program (signed into law by President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008) cost much less than expected. Originally expected to exceed $300 billion, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), as of December 10, 2010 estimates the program will cost only $19 billion, freeing up more than $200 billion to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits.

Updated Apr 13, 2012;
$506,587,440,728 has been awarded
$454,169,192,936 (89.65) has been paid out to the states

Recession histories:

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009.

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade.

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%.

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II. It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak.

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently. Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

Recession peaks 1974-2011:

		Millions		Labor		Recession
		Unemployed	Pct	Force	Growth	Length
Start	July 1974		5.5	91.9
Peak	May 1975	8.4	9			10 mos
Return	May 1979		5.6	104.9	0.1	4 yrs 10 mos

Start	May 1979		5.6	104.9
Peak	Nov 1982	11.9	10.8			3 yrs 6 mo
Return	Apr 1988		5.4	121.6	0.2	8 yrs 11 mos

Start	Nov 1990		6.2	125.8
Peak	May 1992	9.7	7.6			18 mos
Return	Dec 1994		5.5	131	0	4 yrs 1 mo

Start	Nov 2001		5.5	143.7
Peak	June 2003	9.2	6.3			19 mos
Return	Feb 2004		5.6	146.5	0	2 yrs 3 mos

Start	Dec 2007	7.7	5	153.7
Peak	Dec 2009	15.7	10.1			24 mos
Return	Mar 2012	12.7	8.2	154.7	0.65	4 yrs 3 mos

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later. By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2007 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:

The last time Americans suffered through an unemployment peak of this magnitude was in 1982, that took roughly seven years to return to a “normal” rate. But it was followed almost immediately by another upsurge which took another eight years to correct. The total recovery time was nineteen years from the peak. We can only hope that this recovery is shorter. And it can be shorter if consumers focus on ‘made or grown in America.’

A closer look at unemployment for this recession only:

We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

The next Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: April 2012 released May 4
The last Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: February 2012

Economic Picture: February 2012

BobG — Sat, 10 Mar 2012 04:25:05 +0000

The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed. This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring.

–Current: 242.435 million; up 166 thousand from last month; up 3.58 million in the last 12 months (from 238.85 million).

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers actively looking for work.

–Current: 154.87 million; up 476,000 from last month; up 1.57 million in the last 12 months (from 153.3 million). In 2011, the labor force increased by an average of 22,800 per month.

–Employed workers: 142.065 million; up 428,000 from last month; up 2.51 million in the last 12 months (from 139.55 million).

–Unemployed workers: 12.81 million; up 48,000 from last month; down 945 thousand in the last 12 months(from 13.75 million).

–Civilian population not in the labor force: 87.564 million; down 310 thousand from last month; up 2.01 million in the last 12 months (from 85.55 million).

At the start of the recession, 62.7% of the population was employed. Currently it is 58.6%.

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) remains constant at 8.3 percent, the lowest since March of 2009.

Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (does not count farm workers).

–Current: 132.7 million; up 227,000 jobs from last month; up 2.02 million the last 12 months (130.7), increased by 3.45 million since the February 2010 low (129.246 million).

Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 110.7 million; up 233,000 jobs from last month; up 2.25 million in the last 12 months (108.46).

Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment.

–Current: 21.986 million; down 6,000 jobs from last month; down 226,000 in the last 12 months (22.212).

Bottom Line: February

The Labor Department reported 227,000 jobs were added this month, adding to the theory that the employment situation not as bad as first reported. Job growth was spread among many sectors indicating the recovery is becoming more durable than earlier thought even as new job seekers flooded into the labor force.

The increase in nonfarm jobs exceeded 200,000 for the third straight month with the revision of job gains upward to 223,000 for December and 284,000 for January. The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data shows three-month averages for the last nine months consistently growing. The past three months of full-time job growth is the fastest since early 2006 with average hourly earnings rising to $23.31.

The Civilian labor force increased by 476,000 although only 166,000 were added to the Civilian population, but including the 310,000 who were not part of the labor force rejoining the search for work. That’s a good sign because it means people believe more work is available.

There are still currently 87.564 million people “not in the labor force.” Taking out military, students, retirees and homemakers leaves roughly 24.744 million, who for a variety of personal reasons including sickness, family responsibilities, etc. are either unable or unwilling to look for work, and have not actively looked for work in the last four weeks.

The increase in the Civilian labor force (+476,000) combined with the change in employment level (+428,000 employed. +48,000 unemployed) kept the unemployment rate constant at 8.3%.

The big question is, will the jobless rate ever return to the 5% – 6% level seen before the recession?

After three years with unemployment topping 8 percent, the U.S. has seen the longest period of high unemployment since the Great Depression. Perhaps this recession should be renamed the ‘Greater Depression.’

The impact of rising gasoline prices impacts the unemployment picture as well. Employers announced planned workforce reductions of more than 50,000 during February, adding to the 105,214 planned job cuts for the first two months of 2012, according to global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. These job cuts have been concentrated in consumer products and transportation, where consumers have to spend more on fuel and less on the products and services offered by these firms.

Jobs were the lead topic in Congress, with the Senate moving forward with a $109 billion transportation bill. Congress faces an end-of-March deadline for the new transportation bill with jobs of nearly 2 million construction workers at risk without new funding.

The Obama administration endorsed a Republican House-led JOBS (Jump-start Our Business Start-ups) Act by saying that helping small businesses and start-ups “is fundamental to having an economy built to last.”

Voters consistently have ranked jobs and the economy as top issues for this election season.

Recession summary:

The economy took a dive in late 2007, and the administrations of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama have struggled to reverse the loss of jobs.

Since Obama took office in 2009, various government programs and bailouts have been instituted to stimulate the economy, including Cash for Clunkers and a tax credit for home buyers.

For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:

Consumer Confidence Index^®(short-term outlook) increased to 70.8 from last month’s 61.5 (1985=100).
Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) increased to 45.0 from last month’s 38.8 rating.
Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) increased to 88.0 from last month’s level of 76.7 on American pessimism.

Americans are occasionally becoming optimistic about the present or the future.

Nonfarm payroll employment gained 227,000 in February. Previous month changes were: January (+284,000); December (+203,000); November (+157,000); October (+112,000); September (+210,000); August (+104,000); July (+127,000); June (+20,000); May (+53,000); April (+217,000); March (+194,000); February (+235,000).

Census workers peaked at 564,000 workers in May 2010.

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: December through February (+714,000); September through November (+479,000); June through August (+251,000).

The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.8 hours;average hourly and weekly earnings held steady at $19.64 with weekly earnings at $663.83, compared with 12 months ago when they were $649.49, an increase of 22% over the year.

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.

The CPI rose 2.9 percent in 2011 after a 1.5 percent increase in 2010. This was the largest December-December increase since 2007.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) decreased by 111,000 to 8.12 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (+74,000) or could only find part-time work (-147,000). The number of persons working part time for non-economic reasons increased by 191,000.

The number of persons not in the labor force but marginally attached to the labor force , decreased by 201,000 to 2.61 million (a year earlier it was 2.73 million). These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They were not considered part of the labor force because they had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks.

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workersdecreased by 53,000 in the current month to 1.006 million. These are persons no longer looking for work. This number has decreased by 14,000 from a year earlier.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) decreased by 92,000 to 5.446 million this month. This is 4.10 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.327 million). 42.3% unemployed persons are in this category or 3.5% of the work force. In 2009, 3.42 million were added to that number, but in 2010 only 308,000 were added. In 2011, that number decreased by 833,000.

The average duration of unemploymenthas increased this month to 42.6 weeks. Twelve months ago it was 43.9 weeks.At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed regain employment in 20.3 weeks, where twelve months ago it was 21.1 weeks.

The long-term unemployed number is down by 1.27 million workers since the May 2010 high of 6.71 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (23.8%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (6.3%), followed up by Whites, Adult men (7.7%), then Adult women (7.7%).

Construction lost 13,000 jobs in February. Previous month changes were January (+21,000); December (+31,000); November (+1,000); October (-10,000); September (+31,000): August (-14,000); July (+10,000);June (-7,000); May (+3,000); April (+4,000); March (+5,000); February (+30,000).

The quarterly average construction job data has three-month averages at: December through February (+13,000); September through November (+7,333); June through August (-3,667).

Currently, there are 5.554 million construction jobs, an increase of 6,500 from a year ago (5.489 million). In December 2007, there were 7.487 million.

Manufacturing gained 31,000 jobs in February. Previous month changes were January (+52,000);December (+32,000); November (+3,000); October (+10,000); September(-1,000): August (-1,000); July (+34,000);June (+14,000);May (-2,000); April (+28,000), March (+20,000);February (+33,000).

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: December through February (+38,333); September through November (+4,000); June through August (+15,667).

Currently, there are 11.89 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 227,000 from a year ago (11.664 million). In December 2007, there were 13.74 million.

The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 31^st consecutive month. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 52.4 percent. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

The eleven manufacturing industries reporting growth were led by: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment.

Retail trade lost 7,400 jobs in February. Previous month changes were January (+26,100); December (+6,800); November (+33,800); October (+15,500); September (+23,100); August (+2,500); July (+28,500);June (+11,500);May (+2,800), April (+64,100); March (-5,600);February (-8,100).

The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: December through February (+8,500); September through November (+24.133); June through August (+14,167).

Currently, there are 14.750 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 195,000 from a year ago (14.555 million). In December 2007, there were 15.58 million.

Employment in retail trade has increased by 402,000 jobs since its low in December 2009 (14.348 million).

Professional and Business Services gained 82,000 jobs in February. Previous month changes were January (+76,000); December (+63,000); November (+39,000); October (+30,000); September (+54,000); August (+45,000); July (+39,000); June (zero); May (+44,000); April (+45,000); March (+75,000);February (+44,000).

The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: December through February (+73,667); September through November (+41,000); June through August (+28,000).

Currently, there are 17.75 million professional and business services jobs, an increase of 647,000 jobs from a year ago (17.104 million). In December 2007, there were 18.052 million.

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.368 million jobs since its low in September 2009(16.383 million).

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional and Business Services) gained 45,200 jobs in February. Previous month changes were January (+32,100);December (+8,300); November (+19,700); October (+5,000); September (+24,700); August (+22,600); July (+13,500); June (-7,000); May (-1,000); April (-5,400); March (+30,000); February (+22,700).

The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: December through February (+28,533); September through November (16,467); June through August (9,700).

Currently, there are 2.473 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 214,000 from a year ago (2.259 million). In December 2007, there were 2.55 million.

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.

Educational Services gained 9,100 jobs in February. Previous month changes were January (-5,800); December (+3,600); November (+14,200); October (+7,500); September (+10,200); August (+4,600); July (+15,800);June (-900);May (-4,900); April (+6,200); March (-2,500);February (+4,000).

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: December through February (+2,300); September through November (10,633); June through August (+3,800).

Currently, there are 3.28 million educational services jobs, an increase of 80,000 from a year ago (3.20 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 61,100 jobs in February. Previous month changes were January (+43,000);December (+29,500); November (+6,200); October (+30,300); September (+46,100); August (+34,100); July (+37,400);June (+18,800);May (+26,000), April (+34,000); March(+36,000);February (+36,200).

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: December through February (+44,533); September through November (+27,533); June through August (+33.933).

Currently, there are 16.904 million health care and social assistance jobs, an increase of 399,000 from a year ago (16.505 million).

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.327 million jobs since December 2007(15.577 million).

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 6,000 jobs in January. Previous month changes were January (-1,000); December (-11,000); November (-21,000); October (-22,000); September (-10,000); August (+15,000); July (-46,000); June (-34,000); May (-46,000); April (-24,000); March (-25,000); February (-30,000).

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: December through February (-6,000); September through November (-17,667); June through August (-21,333).

Currently, there are 21.986 million jobs, a decrease of 226,000jobs from a year ago (22.212 million). In December 2007, there were 22.377 million.

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.202 million jobs, a decrease of 31,000 jobs from a year ago (2.233 million). In December 2007, there were 1.974 million.

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 619,100 jobs, a decrease of 24,100jobs from a year ago (643,200). In December 2007, there were 783,000.

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.397 million jobs, an increase of 18,000 from a year ago (2.379 million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.66 million jobs, a decrease of 70,000 from a year ago (2.73 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.861 million jobs, a decrease of 70,000 from a year ago (7.931 million). In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.245 million jobs, a decrease of 52,000 from a year ago (6.297 million). In December 2007, there were 6.428 million.

Employment explained:

To restore employment to the 5.5% level, 5.06 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.

The government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.

To get to the 8% level, 416,320 workers still need jobs. 12.39 million workers will still be unemployed under the new standard.

The Civilian labor force has increased in the past 12 months by 1.57 million.

Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries and local jobs.

Our recession history of unemployment:

Unemployed	Rate	2009-2010	Unemployed	Rate	2010-2011
(millions)	Pct		(millions)	Pct
14.6	9.5	June 2010	14.6	9.5	July 2010
14.9	9.6	May	14.8	9.6	August
15.1	9.8	April	14.7	9.6	Sept
14.9	9.7	March	14.9	9.7	Oct
14.9	9.7	Feb	15	9.8	Nov
14.8	9.7	Jan 2010	14.4	9.4	Dec 2010

15.2	9.9	Dec 2009	13.9	9	Jan 2011
15.2	9.9	Nov	13.7	8.9	Feb
15.6	10.1	Oct	13.5	8.8	March
15.1	9.8	Sept	13.7	9	April
15	9.7	Aug	13.9	9.1	May
14.7	9.5	July	14.1	9.2	June
14.8	9.5	June	13.9	9.1	July
14.5	9.4	May	14	9.1	Aug
13.7	8.9	April	14	9.1	Sept
13.3	8.6	March	13.9	9	Oct
12.7	8.2	Feb	13.3	8.6	Nov
11.9	7.8	Jan 2009	13.1	8.5	Dec
			12.7	8.3	Jan 2012
			12.8	8.3	Feb<=Current
			10.77	7	<=Economist target

Over the last 12 months, net 2.51 million jobs were filled in the Civilian labor force, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

Where are the jobs?

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).

		Unemployment by Education Level
	Unemployed		Not grad	Only grad	Some	College	Age over 55
	(millions)	Pct	HS	HS	college	degree	Men	Women
Dec 2007	7.645	5	7.70%	4.70%	3.80%	2.10%	3.20%	3.00%
Dec 2008	11.299	7.3	11.1	7.8	5.7	3.6	5.2	3.7
Dec 2009	15.124	9.9	15.1	10.6	8.8	4.9	7.9	6
Dec 2010	14.394	9.4	15.1	9.8	8.2	4.8	7.3	6.2
Dec 2011	13.097	8.5	13.8	8.7	7.7	4.1	6.1	6.2
Feb 2012	12.806	8.3	12.9	8.3	7.3	4.2	5.7	6.1

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 0.2 percent (31,000) of the 154.87 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.

The basic concepts of employment are:

1.		People with jobs are employed
2.		People who are jobless, looking for jobs and available for work are unemployed.
3.		The sum of people employed or unemployed constitute the Civilian labor force.
4.		People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the Civilian labor force.
5.		People who are either institutionalized in a facility (correctional, residential nursing or mental health) or on active duty with the Armed Forces are not counted.

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results.

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.

The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

Updated Mar 16, 2012;
$505,031,155,328 has been awarded
$450,154,570,970 (89.1%) has been paid out to the states

Recession histories:

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009.

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade.

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%.

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II. It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak.

Recession peaks 1974-2011:

		Millions		Labor	Recession
		Unemployed	Pct	Force	Growth	Length
Start	July 1974		5.5	91.9
Peak	May 1975	8.4	9			10 mos
Return	May 1979		5.6	104.9	0.1	4 yrs 10 mos

Start	May 1979		5.6	104.9
Peak	Nov 1982	11.9	10.8			3 yrs 6 mo
Return	Apr 1988		5.4	121.6	0.2	8 yrs 11 mos

Start	Nov 1990		6.2	125.8
Peak	May 1992	9.7	7.6			18 mos
Return	Dec 1994		5.5	131	0	4 yrs 1 mo

Start	Nov 2001		5.5	143.7
Peak	June 2003	9.2	6.3			19 mos
Return	Feb 2004		5.6	146.5	0	2 yrs 3 mos

Start	Dec 2007	7.7	5	153.7
Peak	Dec 2009	15.7	10.1			24 mos
Return	Feb 2012	12.8	8.3	154.8	0.72	4 yrs 2 mos

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2007 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:

A closer look at unemployment for this recession only:

We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

The next Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: March 2012 released April 6

The last Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: January 2012

A Million Jobs

BobG — Sun, 26 Feb 2012 04:40:59 +0000

excerpted from The NY Times Sunday Review editorial, February 25, 2012

The United States economy was terrifyingly close to the brink of collapse in 2008 and 2009, with the imminent collapse of auto giants General Motors and Chrysler threatening to be the final push over the edge.

When those giants of employment pleaded with the federal government to save them from financial disaster, then President George W. Bush (43) and later President Barack Obama ignored emphatic Republican party objections to saving the auto industry, and so saved that emblematic American industry as well as the nation from an even deeper crash that would take generations to recover from.

Four years later, according to the nonpartisan Center for Automotive Research, there are 1.45 million people who have jobs as a direct result of the $80 billion bailout, both at the auto makers and the associated downstream businesses. Michigan’s unemployment level is now at its lowest level in three years. GM is again the world’s biggest automaker, and both General Motors and Chrysler are reporting substantial profits.

Yet Mitt Romney and the other Republican presidential candidates, spent the days before the Michigan primary denouncing the bailout that has rescued the state and the nation’s economy.

Romney has been especially raucous in his insistence that if he were president, he would have allowed the auto makers to go “belly-up” bankrupt, saying they could somehow have clawed their way back to profitability without a dollar of federal assistance. He wrote in The Detroit News. “The president tells us that without his intervention things in Detroit would be worse; I believe that without his intervention things there would be better.”

Of course, he was targeting the current Democratic president, and conveniently forgot to mention the significant part Obama’s Republican predecessor had in the bailout. He also forgot to mention that it might take fifty years of double-digit unemployment to return to a position of significant market share in the global economy.

The Detroit News, which otherwise enthusiastically endorsed Mr. Romney in the Michigan primary, said he was dead wrong about the bailout. The newspaper’s editorial board wrote, “Only the government was in a position to save the auto industry from “the darkest hour of its history”

Romney’s critique is entirely detached from reality. Steven Rattner, who was Mr. Obama’s lead auto adviser, wrote in The NY Times that not one single dollar of private capital could be found to prop up the companies, despite desperate efforts, and he challenged Mr. Romney to name one investor who might differ.

Romney slid into this quicksand in 2008 with an Op-Ed essay in The Times arguing against government help for Detroit. It included the memorable prediction that if the bailout were granted, “you can kiss the American automotive industry goodbye.”

Since Romney has been criticized for his inconsistency on so many other issues, he apparently feels he cannot back away from this one. It doesn’t matter that his argument has proved so wrong. He can draw whatever conclusions he wants about a fictional reality.

Since his prediction has proved so incorrect, Romney has switched to a new tack on the issue — union-bashing. Now he is calling the bailout “crony capitalism” because it saved union jobs.

He throws new unsubstantiated charges that President Obama used the Treasury for his own purposes to help his political allies. Romney wrote, “While a lot of workers and investors got the short end of the stick, Obama’s union allies — and his major campaign contributors — reaped reward upon reward, all on the taxpayer’s dime.”

High labor costs were undeniably a large part of the Detroit auto maker’s problems. But Romney’s claim that the government did not do nearly enough to drive those costs down in the bailout is just flat-out wrong. Indeed, labor made substantial concessions.

After earlier agreeing to let newly hired workers make half the wage of current employees, unions consented in the bailout deal to give up cost-of-living increases, dental coverage, and some work rules and vacation benefits. Unions also took a leap of faith in accepting a company stock fund to pay for their health benefits, instead of cash.

Romney again conveniently ignores those givebacks, expressing anger that a health care fund for nearly half a million United Automobile Workers retirees (“union-boss controlled”) got a higher priority in the bailout than lenders to Chrysler.

In a recent speech, Romney continued to insist that the UAW and federal fuel-economy standards were somehow imperiling the future of the industry, even though neither seems to have slowed the auto makers’ current success.

Neither Romney nor any of the other Republican candidates are capable of admitting that sometimes it follows the path of the greater good to prevent a major employer from going out of business, even when that employer got into the situation themselves. And only the government is large enough to rescue a major sector of the economy.

But any of the 1.45 million autoworkers, however, with paychecks they are taking home to their families, can explain it to them.

Economic Picture: January 2012

BobG — Sat, 04 Feb 2012 04:58:22 +0000

The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed. This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring.

–Current: 242.27 million; up 1.685 million from last month; up 3.565 million in the last 12 months (from 238.70 million).

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers actively looking for work.

–Current: 154.395 million; up 508,000 from last month; up 1.145 million in the last 12 months (from 153.25 million). In 2011, the labor force increased by an average of 22,800 per month.

–Employed workers: 141.64 million; up 847,000 from last month; up 2.31 million in the last 12 months (from 139.33 million).

–Unemployed workers: 12.76 million; down 339,000 from last month; down 1.16 million in the last 12 months(from 13.9 million).

–Civilian population not in the labor force: 87.874 million; up 1.177 million from last month; up 2.42 million in the last 12 months (from 85.454 million).

At the start of the recession, 62.7% of the population was employed. Currently it is 58.5%.

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) has dropped to 8.3 percent, the lowest since March of 2009.

Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (does not count farm workers).

–Current: 131.9 million; up 243,000 jobs from last month; up 1.95 million the last 12 months (130.46), increased by 2.654 million since the February 2010 low (129.246 million).

Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 110.44 million; down 257,000 jobs from last month; up 2.23 million in the last 12 months (108.21).

Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment.

–Current: 21.973 million; down 14,000 jobs from last month; down 276,000 in the last 12 months (22.249).

Bottom Line: January

The United States created jobs in January at the fastest pace in nine months, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 8.3 nearly a three-year low. even as new job seekers flooded into the labor force.

The Labor Department reported 243,000 jobs were added this month, far outstripping the 150,000 predicted in a Reuters poll. Revisions show 203,000 jobs were added in December making the employment situation not as bad as first reported.

Job growth was spread among many sectors indicating the recovery is becoming more durable than earlier thought.

Mild winter weather boosted employment last month in outdoor work environments like construction, which added 21,000 jobs after a 31,000 increase in December. Over the past 2 months, nonresidential specialty trade contractors added 30,000 jobs.

The unemployment rate among those who hold a four-year college degree rose slightly, but was mostly driven by an increase in those who hold such a degree looking for work. Actual employment by those with a four-year degree rose by 291,000.

Of the 1.685 million added to the Civilian population, only 508,000 joined the Civilian labor force,with the remainder counted as not in the labor force, keeping the percentage of the population employed constant.

In January 2012, the number of Americans “not in the labor force” increased by 1.12 million, the largest increase everin that category for a single month.

Who are these people, “not in the labor force?

The Civilian non-institutional population encompass all citizens of all ages who are not institutionalized (incarcerated or in extended care facilities). The Civilian labor force is those citizens who are either employed or not employed but seeking employment. Those “not in the labor force” are those who are neither employed nor seeking employment.

Some people are excluded from the labor force automatically and some are in this category by virtue of the decisions they make.

The automatic exclusions from the Civilian labor force fall into one of several categories. Using numbers from the recent U.S. Census, are the military (1.43 million), the young (under 16 years of age) assumed to be still in school and students (16.8 million), retirees and elderly (33.3 million), homemakers (11.6 million), and those marginally attached to the labor force.

The marginally attached are predominantly those workers who have given up. Most are no longer looking for work by choice, convinced there are no jobs available for them in their local area or line of work. Employers discriminate against them as being too young, too old, or other discriminations like being unemployed. They lack the necessary skills, schooling, training or experience necessary or required for positions they apply for.

The current BLS-estimated unemployment rate is 8.3 percent, based on the ratio of unemployed workers actively looking for work (12.758 million) to the Civilian labor force (154.395 million).

There are currently 87.874 million people “not in the labor force.” Taking out military, students, retirees and homemakers leaves roughly 24.744 million, who for a variety of personal reasons including sickness, family responsibilities, etc. are either unable or unwilling to look for work, and have not actively looked for work in the last four weeks

Adding this number to the unemployed workers multiplies the unemployment rate by a factor of 4 to 24.3%.

So let’s not get too excited just yet about the improving economy.

For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:

Consumer Confidence Index^®(short-term outlook) decreased to 61.1 from last month’s 64.8 (1985=100).
Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) decreased to 38.4 from last month’s 46.5 rating.
Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) decreased to 76.2 from last month’s level of 77.0 on American pessimism.

Americans are occasionally becoming optimistic about the present or the future.

Nonfarm payroll employment gained 243,000 in January. Previous month changes were: December (+203,000); November (+157,000); October (+112,000); September (+210,000); August (+104,000); July (+127,000); June (+20,000); May (+53,000); April (+217,000); March (+194,000); February (+235,000); January (+68,000).

Census workers peaked at 564,000 workers in May 2010.

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: November through January (+201,000); August through October (+142,000); May through July (+66,667).

The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.8 hours;average hourly and weekly earnings held steady at $19.62 with weekly earnings at $663.16, compared with 12 months ago when they were $645.62.

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.74 percent while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 3.1 percent. Cost for food at home has increased by 5.3 percent, gasoline by 9.7 percent, and fuel oil by 12.0 percent. The CPI rose 2.9 percent in 2011 after a 1.5 percent increase in 2010. This was the largest December-December increase since 2007.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 132,000 to 8.23 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (+67,000) or could only find part-time work (+132,000). The number of persons working part time for non-economic reasons increased by 264,000.

The number of persons not in the labor force but marginally attached to the labor force , increasing by 269,000 to 2.81 million (about the same as a year earlier when it was 2.80 million). These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They were not considered part of the labor force because they had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks.

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workersincreased by 114,000 in the current month to 1.06 million. These are persons no longer looking for work. This number has increased by 66,000 from a year earlier.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) decreased by 70,000 to 5.52 million this month. This is 4.16 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.327 million). 42.9% unemployed persons are in this category or 3.6% of the work force. In 2009, 3.42 million were added to that number, but in 2010 only 308,000 were added. In 2011, that number decreased by 833,000.

The average duration of unemploymenthas decreased to 40.1 weeks. Last January it was37.1 weeks.At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed regain employment in 21.1 weeks, less than a week less than a year ago.

The long-term unemployed number is down by 1.17 million workers since the May 2010 high of 6.71 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (23.2%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (6.7%), followed up by Whites, Adult men (7.7%), then Adult women (7.7%).

Construction gained 21,000 jobs in January. Previous month changes were December (+31,000); November (+1,000); October (-10,000); September (+31,000): August (-14,000); July (+10,000);June (-7,000); May (+3,000); April (+4,000); March (+5,000); February (+30,000); January (-32,000); December (-16,000).

The quarterly average construction job data has three-month averages at: November through January (+17,667); August through October (+2,333); May through July (+2,000).

Currently, there are 5.57 million construction jobs, an increase of 114,000 from a year ago (5.456 million). In December 2007, there were 7.487 million.

Manufacturing gained 50,000 jobs in December. Previous month changes were December (+32,000); November (+3,000); October (+10,000); September(-1,000): August (-1,000); July (+34,000);June (+14,000);May (-2,000); April (+28,000), March (+20,000);February (+33,000); January (+49,000);December (+14,000).

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: November through January (+28,333); August through October (+2,667); May through July (+15,333).

Currently, there are 11.86 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 235,000 from a year ago (11.63 million). In December 2007, there were 13.74 million.

The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 30^th consecutive month. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 54.1. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

The nine manufacturing industries reporting growth were led by: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products.

Retail trade gained 10,500 jobs in January. Previous month changes were December (+6,200); November (+33,800); October (+15,500); September (+23,100); August (+2,500); July (+28,500);June (+11,500);May (+2,800), April (+64,100); March (-5,600);February (-8,100); January (+27,500);December (+2,800); November(-15,600).

The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: November through January (+16,833); August through October (+13,700); May through July (+14,267).

Currently, there are 14.741 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 193,000 from a year ago (14.550 million). In December 2007, there were 15.58 million.

Employment in retail trade has increased by 393,000 jobs since its low in December 2009 (14.348 million).

Professional and Business Services gained 70,000 jobs in January. Previous month changes were December (+63,000); November (+39,000); October (+30,000); September (+54,000); August (+45,000); July (+39,000); June (zero); May (+44,000); April (+45,000); March (+75,000);February (+44,000); January (+31,000).

The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: November through January (+57,300); August through October (+43,000); May through July (+27,667).

Currently, there are 17.654 million professional and business services jobs, an increase of 599,000 jobs from a year ago (17.055 million). In December 2007, there were 18.052 million.

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.271 million jobs since its low in September 2009(16.383 million).

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional and Business Services) gained 20,100 jobs in January. Previous month changes were December (+8,300); November (+19,700); October (+5,000); September (+24,700); August (+22,600); July (+13,500); June (-7,000); May (-1,000); April (-5,400); March (+30,000); February (+22,700); January (-11,400).

The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: November through January (+15,367); August through October (+17,433); May through July (+1,833).

Currently, there are 2.406 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 39,000 from a year ago (2.245 million). In December 2007, there were 2.55 million.

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.

Educational Services gained 56,000 jobs in January. Previous month changes were December (+6,300); November (+14,200); October (+7,500); September (+10,200); August (+4,600); July (+15,800);June (-900);May (-4,900); April (+6,200); March (-2,500);February (+4,000); January (-100).

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: November through January (+25,500); August through October (+7,433); May through July (+3,333).

Currently, there are 3.287 million educational services jobs, an increase of 80,100 from a year ago (3.21 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 29,700 jobs in January. Previous month changes were December (+22,000); November (+6,200); October (+30,300); September (+46,100); August (+34,100); July (+37,400);June (+18,800);May (+26,000), April (+34,000); March(+36,000);February (+36,200); January (+12,900).

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: November through January (+19,300); August through October (+36,833); May through July (+27,400).

Currently, there are 16.822 million health care and social assistance jobs, an increase of 333,000 from a year ago (16.489 million).

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.245 million jobs since December 2007(15.577 million).

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 14,000 jobs in January. Previous month changes were December (-17,000); November (-21,000); October (-22,000); September (-10,000); August (+15,000); July (-46,000); June (-34,000); May (-46,000); April (-24,000); March (-25,000); February (-30,000); January (-14,000).

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: November through January (-17,333); August through October (-5,667); May through July (-42,000).

Currently, there are 21.973 million jobs, a decrease of 276,000jobs from a year ago (22.249 million). In December 2007, there were 22.377 million.

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.210 million jobs, a decrease of 17,000 jobs from a year ago (2.227 million). In December 2007, there were 1.974 million.

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 618,100 jobs, a decrease of 27,000jobs from a year ago (645,100). In December 2007, there were 783,000.

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.381 million jobs, a decrease of 6,000 from a year ago (2.387 million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.673 million jobs, a decrease of 64,000 from a year ago (2.737 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.843 million jobs, a decrease of 106,000 from a year ago (7.949 million). In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.246 million jobs, a decrease of 57,000 from a year ago (6.303 million). In December 2007, there were 6.428 million.

Employment explained:

To restore employment to the 5.5% level, 4.266 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.

The government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.

To get to the 8% level, 406,400 workers need jobs. 12.35 million workers will still be unemployed under the new standard.

The Civilian labor force has increased in the past 12 months by 1.145 million.

Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries and local jobs.

Our recession history of unemployment:

Unemployed	Rate	2009-2010	Unemployed	Rate	2010-2011
(millions)	Pct		(millions)	Pct
14.6	9.5	June 2010	14.6	9.5	July 2010
14.9	9.6	May	14.8	9.6	August
15.1	9.8	April	14.7	9.6	Sept
14.9	9.7	March	14.9	9.7	Oct
14.9	9.7	Feb	15.0	9.8	Nov
14.8	9.7	Jan 2010	14.4	9.4	Dec 2010

15.2	9.9	Dec 2009	13.9	9.0	Jan 2011
15.2	9.9	Nov	13.7	8.9	Feb
15.6	10.1	Oct	13.5	8.8	March
15.1	9.8	Sept	13.7	9.0	April
15.0	9.7	Aug	13.9	9.1	May
14.7	9.5	July	14.1	9.2	June
14.8	9.5	June	13.9	9.1	July
14.5	9.4	May	14.0	9.1	Aug
13.7	8.9	April	14.0	9.1	Sept
13.3	8.6	March	13.9	9.0	Oct
12.7	8.2	Feb	13.3	8.6	Nov
11.9	7.8	Jan 2009	13.1	8.5	Dec
			12.7	8.3	Jan<=Current
			10.8	7.0	<=Economist target

Over the last 12 months, net 1.16 million jobs were filled in the Civilian labor force, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

Where are the jobs?

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).

		Unemployment by Education Level
	Unemployed		Not grad	Only grad	Some	College	Age over 55
	(millions)	Pct	HS	HS	college	degree	Men	Women
Dec 2007	7.645	5	7.70%	4.70%	3.80%	2.10%	3.20%	3.00%
Dec 2008	11.299	7.3	11.1	7.8	5.7	3.6	5.2	3.7
Dec 2009	15.124	9.9	15.1	10.6	8.8	4.9	7.9	6
Dec 2010	14.394	9.4	15.1	9.8	8.2	4.8	7.3	6.2
Dec 2011	13.097	8.5	13.8	8.7	7.7	4.1	6.1	6.2
Jan 2012	12.758	8.3	13.1	8.4	7.2	4.2	5.9	5.9

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 0.2 percent (31,000) of the 154.395 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.

The basic concepts of employment are:

1.		People with jobs are employed
2.		People who are jobless, looking for jobs and available for work are unemployed.
3.		The sum of people employed or unemployed constitute the Civilian labor force.
4.		People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the Civilian labor force.
5.		People who are either institutionalized in a facility (correctional, residential nursing or mental health) or on active duty with the Armed Forces are not counted.

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results.

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.

Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.
The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.

There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

Updated Jan 20, 2012;

$503,320,155,327 has been awarded
$446,021,847,165 (88.6%) has been paid out to the states

Recession histories:

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009.

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade.

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%.

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II. It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak.

Recession peaks 1974-2011:

		Millions		Labor		Recession
		Unemployed	Pct	Force	Growth	Length
Start	July 1974		5.5	91.9
Peak	May 1975	8.4	9.0			10 mos
Return	May 1979		5.6	104.9	0.1	4 yrs 10 mos

Start	May 1979		5.6	104.9
Peak	Nov 1982	11.9	10.8			3 yrs 6 mo
Return	Apr 1988		5.4	121.6	0.2	8 yrs 11 mos

Start	Nov 1990		6.2	125.8
Peak	May 1992	9.7	7.6			18 mos
Return	Dec 1994		5.5	131.0	0.0	4 yrs 1 mo

Start	Nov 2001		5.5	143.7
Peak	June 2003	9.2	6.3			19 mos
Return	Feb 2004		5.6	146.5	0.0	2 yrs 3 mos

Start	Dec 2007	7.7	5.0	153.7
Peak	Dec 2009	15.7	10.1			24 mos
Return	Jan 2012	12.7	8.3	154.4	0.5	4 yrs 1 mo

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2007 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:

A closer look at unemployment for this recession only:

We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future).
The next Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: February 2012 released March 9
The last Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: December 2011

Economic Picture: December 2011

BobG — Sat, 07 Jan 2012 04:54:03 +0000

The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed. This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring.

–Current: 240.58 million; up 143,000 from last month; up 1.70 million in the last 12 months (from 238.89 million).

Employment is a moving target. In a healthy economy, around 60% of those newly eligible look for employment, so about 1.18 million new jobs per year must be filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers actively looking for work.

–Current: 153.89 million; down 50,000 from last month; up 274,000 in the last 12 months (from 153.61 million). In 2011, the labor force increased by an average of 22,800 per month.

–Employed workers: 140.79 million; up 176,000 from last month; up 1.57 million in the last 12 months (from 139.22 million).

–Unemployed workers: 13.1 million; down 226,000 from last month; down 1.3 million in the last 12 months(from 14.4 million).

–Civilian population not in the labor force: 86.7 million; up 194,000 from last month; up 1.42 million in the last 12 months (from 85.276 million).

At the start of the recession, 62.7% of the population was employed. Currently it is 58.5%.

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) has dropped to 8.5 percent, the lowest since March of 2009.

Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (does not count farm workers).

–Current: 131.9 million; up 200,000 jobs from last month; up 1.64 million the last 12 months (130.26), increased by 2.654 million since the February 2010 low (129.246 million).

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from

+158,000 to +210,000, and the change for October was revised from +80,000 to +100,000.

Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 109.93 million; up 212,000 jobs from last month; up 1.92 million in the last 12 months (108.01).

Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment.

–Current: 21.972 million; down 12,000 jobs from last month; down 80,000 in the last 12 months (22.252).

Bottom Line: December;

Both the number of unemployed persons (13.1 million) and the unemployment rate (8.5 percent) continued to trend down in December.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 200,000 in December. Over the past 12 months, nonfarm payroll employment has risen by 1.6 million. Employment in the private sector rose by 212,000 in December and by 1.9 million over the year.

The strongest increases were in transportation and warehousing (+50,000), retail trade (+28,000), food services(+24,000), manufacturing (+23,000), health care (+23,000).

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) declined by 371,000 to 8.1 million in December. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

About 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force in December, little different from a year earlier. Among the marginally attached, there were 945,000 discouraged workers in December, a decrease of 373,000 from a year earlier. Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are available for them.

Some 650,000 workers aged 16 to 24 found employment in the past three months, the biggest spike for that age group since the recession began, according to BLS figures.

In December, the manufacturing sector accounted for 28 percent of mass layoff events and 30 percent of associated initial claims in the private economy. A year earlier, manufacturing made up 25 percent of events and 30 percent of initial claims. Within manufacturing, the numbers of mass layoff claimants in December 2011 were greatest in transportation equipment, food, and textile mills.

But for all of 2011, the total numbers of mass layoff events and initial jobless claims declined to their lowest levels since 2007, led by manufacturing, construction, and retail trade.

Young Americans were hit harder than most other groups during the Great Recession. Dubbed by some as “the lost generation,” the unemployment rate for college graduates age 24 and younger hit an all-time high in 2010.

Since August of this year however, young people have been flooding the workforce. They account for nearly two-thirds of the rise in employment in the past three months, with older workers making up the rest. Those in the middle saw their employment levels drop by 212,000.

It’s likely they are finding work at retailers, restaurants and other service-related employers. These industries have been boosting their payrolls lately and their workforce often skews to the younger age level.

Many young workers have given up on their career aspirations for the time being. Instead, they take jobs out of their fields or go back to school to wait out the economic storm. Some settle for part-time work, while others just sit on the sidelines.

The competition for positions is particularly intense for younger workers, since workers have their pick of candidates, many with much more experience who are willing to work cheap, said Carl Van Horn, director of Heldrich Center for Workforce Development at Rutgers University. That can be discouraging for those trying to land their first jobs.

About 60% of recent graduates have not been able to find a full-time job in their chosen profession, according to job placement firm Adecco.

And for those just entering the workplace, a cycle of long-term unemployment can affect their career plans for years to come.

One college graduate left Cornell University with a degree in architecture and six summers of internships at top firms in New York, Milan and London. But after graduating in December 2008, just as job losses in the economy were reaching a peak, she was confronted with a very cold reception into the labor force. She traveled to China for a year, and found architecture work plentiful in the building boom there. But when she returned home, not much had improved, and no one was hiring. She has left behind her hopes for a career as an architect and has started her own fabric design business. “Perhaps I should have stayed in China,” she commented.

Long stretches of unemployment are only part of the problem young job seekers face. Adecco also found that 18% of recent grads have been forced to turn to full-time jobs outside their field of study, often jobs for which a college degree is not required. Many others are underemployed, or working part-time or temporary jobs and internships.

With hiring on the rise, this year’s college grads will find a somewhat better job market waiting for them after graduation.

But those already hurt by the recession might not bounce back so quickly. According to one study, the drag on income lasts an average of 10 years, since the worse the recession, the longer it takes to get earnings and a career back on track.

Early last year, 75 percent of the unemployed labor force were receiving benefit checks. The figure is now 48 percent. Nearly one-third of America’s unemployed have had no job is more than a year. Nearly 46 million unemployed are no longer eligible for benefits and are surviving on food stamps.

The U.S. economy has remained weak and an analysis of long-term unemployment data suggests that about 2 million people have used up their 99 weeks of benefit checks and still cannot find work. Contributing to the unemployed who are not receiving benefits are college graduates or others seeking jobs for the first time. They aren’t eligible since only those who have lost a job through no fault of their own qualify for benefits.

For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:

Consumer Confidence Index^®(short-term outlook) improved in November increasing to 64.5 from last month’s 55.2 (1985=100).
Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) increased to 46.7 from last month’s 38.3 rating.
Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) increased to 76.4 from last month’s level of 66.4 on American optimism.

Americans are becoming optimistic about the present or the future.

Nonfarm payroll employment gained 200,000 in December. Previous month changes were: November (+100,000); October (+112,000); September (+210,000); August (+104,000); July (+127,000); June (+20,000); May (+53,000); April (+217,000); March (+194,000); February (+235,000); January (+68,000); December (+121,000).

Census workers peaked at 564,000 workers in May 2010.

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: October through December (+137,333); July through September (+147,000); April through June (+96,667).

The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.8 hours;average hourly and weekly earnings held steady at $19.62 with weekly earnings at $663.16, compared with 12 months ago when they were $645.62.

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.22 percent while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 3.0 percent. Cost for food at home has increased by 6.0 percent, gasoline by 9.9 percent, and fuel oil by 18.0 percent. The CPI rose 3.0 percent in 2011 after a 1.5 percent increase in 2010. This was the largest December-December increase since 2007.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) decreased by 371,000 to 8.1 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (-273,000) or could only find part-time work (-77,000). The number of persons working part time for non-economic reasons increased by 9,000.

The number of persons not in the labor force but marginally attached to the labor force remained relatively constant, decreasing by 51,000 to 2.54 million (about the same as a year earlier when it was 2.53 million). These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They were not considered part of the labor force because they had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks.

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workersdecreased by 151,000 in the current month to 945,000. These are persons no longer looking for work. This number has decreased by 373,000 from a year earlier.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) decreased by 92,000 to 5.59 million this month. This is more than 4.2 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.327 million). 42.6% unemployed persons are in this category or 3.6% of the work force. In 2009, 3.42 million were added to that number, but in 2010 only 308,000 were added. So far in 2011, that number has decreased by 833,000.

The average duration of unemploymenthas decreased to 40.8 weeks. In January it was37.1 weeks.At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed regain employment in 21.0 weeks, about the same as a year ago.

The long-term unemployed number is down by 1.1 million workers since the May 2010 high of 6.71 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (23.1%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (6.8%), followed up by Adult women (7.9%), Whites then Adult men (8.0%).

Construction gained 17,000 jobs in December. Previous month changes were November (-12,000); October (-10,000); September (+31,000): August (-14,000); July (+10,000);June (-7,000); May (+3,000); April (+4,000); March (+5,000); February (+30,000); January (-32,000); December (-16,000).

The quarterly average construction job data has three-month averages at: October through December (-1,667); July through September (+9,000); April through June (0).

Currently, there are 5.544 million construction jobs, an increase of 46,000 from a year ago (5.498 million). In December 2007, there were 7.487 million.

Manufacturing gained 23,000 jobs in December. Previous month changes were November (+1,000); October (+10,000); September(-1,000): August (-1,000); July (+34,000);June (+14,000);May (-2,000); April (+28,000), March (+20,000);February (+33,000); January (+49,000);December (+14,000).

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: October through December (+11,333); July through September (+10,667); April through June (+13,333).

Currently, there are 11.79 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 225,000 from a year ago (11.565 million). In December 2007, there were 13.74 million.

The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 29^th consecutive month. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 53.1. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

The 18 manufacturing industries reporting growth were led by: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products.

Retail trade gained 27,900 jobs in December. Previous month changes were November (+38,800); October (+15,500); September (+23,100); August (+2,500); July (+28,500);June (+11,500);May (+2,800), April (+64,100); March (-5,600);February (-8,100); January (+27,500);December (+2,800); November(-15,600).

The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: October through December (+27,400); July through September (+18,033); April through June (+26,133).

Currently, there are 14.686 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 239,000 from a year ago (14.447 million). In December 2007, there were 15.58 million.

Employment in retail trade has increased by 338,000 jobs since its low in December 2009 (14.348 million).

Professional and Business Services gained 12,000 jobs in December. Previous month changes were November (+19,000); October (+30,000); September (+54,000); August (+45,000); July (+39,000); June (zero); May (+44,000); April (+45,000); March (+75,000);February (+44,000); January (+31,000); December (+54,000).

The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: October through December (+20,667); July through September (+46,000); April through June (+29,667).

Currently, there are 17.364 million professional and business services jobs, an increase of 462,000 jobs from a year ago (16.902 million). In December 2007, there were 18.052 million.

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 981,000 jobs since its low in September 2009(16.383 million).

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional and Business Services) lost 7,500 jobs in December. Previous month changes were November (+11,200); October (+5,000); September (+24,700); August (+22,600); July (+13,500); June (-7,000); May (-1,000); April (-5,400); March (+30,000); February (+22,700); January (-11,400); December (+38,100); November (+26,800).

The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: October through December (+2,900); July through September (+20,267); April through June (-4,467).

Currently, there are 2.303 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 96,000 from a year ago (2.207 million). In December 2007, there were 2.55 million.

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.

Educational Services gained 100 jobs in December. Previous month changes were November (+12,300); October (+7,500); September (+10,200); August (+4,600); July (+15,800);June (-900);May (-4,900); April (+6,200); March (-2,500);February (+4,000); January (-100); December (+5,400); November (+6,800).

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: October through December (+6,633); July through September (+10,200); April through June (+133).

Currently, there are 3.256 million educational services jobs, an increase of 76,000 from a year ago (3.18 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 28,700 jobs in December. Previous month changes were November (+18,700); October (+30,300); September (+46,100); August (+34,100); July (+37,400);June (+18,800);May (+26,000), April (+34,000); March(+36,000);February (+36,200); January (+12,900);December (+27,900); November (+30,900).

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: October through December (+25,900); July through September (+39,200); April through June (+26,267).

Currently, there are 16.931 million health care and social assistance jobs, an increase of 350,000 from a year ago (16.581 million).

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.354 million jobs since December 2007(15.577 million).

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 12,000 jobs in December. Previous month changes were November (-20,000); October (-22,000); September (-10,000); August (+15,000); July (-46,000); June (-34,000); May (-46,000); April (-24,000); March (-25,000); February (-30,000); January (-14,000); December (-18,000); November (-35,000).

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: October through December (-18,000); July through September (-13,667); April through June (-34,667).

Currently, there are 21.972 million jobs, a decrease of 720,000jobs from a year ago (22.252 million). In December 2007, there were 22.377 million.

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.205 million jobs, a decrease of 5,300 jobs from a year ago (2.21 million). In December 2007, there were 1.974 million.

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 612,100 jobs, a decrease of 31,300jobs from a year ago (643,400). In December 2007, there were 783,000.

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.407 million jobs, a decrease of 14,600 from a year ago (2.393 million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.69 million jobs, a decrease of 74,700 from a year ago (2.747 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.84 million jobs, a decrease of 113,000 from a year ago (7.952 million). In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.240 million jobs, a decrease of 67,700 from a year ago (6.307 million). In December 2007, there were 6.428 million.

Employment explained:

To restore employment to the 5.5% level, 4.63 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.

The government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.

To get to the 8% level, 786,040 workers need jobs. 12.311 million workers will still be unemployed under the new standard.

The Civilian labor force has increased in the past 12 months by 27,400.

Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries and local jobs.

Our recession history of unemployment:

Unemployed	Rate	2009-2010	Unemployed	Rate	2010-2011
(millions)	Pct		(millions)	Pct
14.6	9.5	June 2010	14.6	9.5	July 2010
14.9	9.6	May	14.8	9.6	August
15.1	9.8	April	14.7	9.6	Sept
14.9	9.7	March	14.9	9.7	Oct
14.9	9.7	Feb	15	9.8	Nov
14.8	9.7	Jan 2010	14.4	9.4	Dec 2010

15.2	9.9	Dec 2009	13.9	9	Jan 2011
15.2	9.9	Nov	13.7	8.9	Feb
15.6	10.1	Oct	13.5	8.8	March
15.1	9.8	Sept	13.7	9	April
15	9.7	Aug	13.9	9.1	May
14.7	9.5	July	14.1	9.2	June
14.8	9.5	June	13.9	9.1	July
14.5	9.4	May	14	9.1	Aug
13.7	8.9	April	14	9.1	Sept
13.3	8.6	March	13.9	9	Oct
12.7	8.2	Feb	13.3	8.6	Nov
11.9	7.8	Jan 2009	13.1	8.5	Dec<=Current
			10.77	7	<=Economist target

Over the last 12 months, net 1.671 million jobs were filled in the Civilian labor force, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

Where are the jobs?

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).

		Unemployment by Education Level
	Employed		Not grad	Only grad	Some	College	Age over 55
	(millions)	Pct	HS	HS	college	degree	Men	Women
Dec 2007	146.173	5.0	7.80%	4.70%	3.90%	2.10%	3.20%	2.90%
Dec 2008	143.188	7.4	11.2	7.8	5.9	3.7	5.2	4.3
Dec 2009	137.792	10.0	15.3	10.5	9.0	5.0	7.9	5.8
Dec 2010	139.206	9.4	15.3	9.8	8.1	4.8	7.2	5.8
Dec 2011	140.790	8.5	13.8	8.7	7.7	4.1	6.1	5.7
Jan 1-Dec	+1.57M	-0.9	-162K	-521K	-154K	-275K	-151K	+16K

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 0.2 percent (31,000) of the 153.89 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.

The basic concepts of employment are:

1.		People with jobs are employed
2.		People who are jobless, looking for jobs and available for work are unemployed.
3.		The sum of people employed or unemployed constitute the Civilian labor force.
4.		People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the Civilian labor force.
5.		People who are either institutionalized in a facility (correctional, residential nursing or mental health) or on active duty with the Armed Forces are not counted.

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results.

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.

The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

Updated Jan 20, 2012;
$502,410,902,091 has been awarded
$442,039,812,445 (88.0%) has been paid out to the states

Recession histories:

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009.

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade.

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%.

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II. It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak.

Recession peaks 1974-2011:

		Millions		Labor		Recession
		Unemployed	Pct	Force	Growth	Length
Start	July 1974		5.5	91.9
Peak	May 1975	8.4	9.0			10 mos
Return	May 1979		5.6	104.9	0.1	4 yrs 10 mos
Start	May 1979		5.6	104.9
Peak	Nov 1982	11.9	10.8			3 yrs 6 mo
Return	Apr 1988		5.4	121.6	0.2	8 yrs 11 mos
Start	Nov 1990		6.2	125.8
Peak	May 1992	9.7	7.6			18 mos
Return	Dec 1994		5.5	131.0	0.0	4 yrs 1 mo
Start	Nov 2001		5.5	143.7
Peak	June 2003	9.2	6.3			19 mos
Return	Feb 2004		5.6	146.5	0.0	2 yrs 3 mos
Start	Dec 2007	7.7	5.0	153.7
Peak	Dec 2009	15.7	10.1			24 mos
Return	Dec 2011	13.1	8.5	153.9	0.0	3 yrs 12 mos

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2007 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:

A closer look at unemployment for this recession only:

We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

The next Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: December 2011 released January 6, 2012

The last Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: October 2011

Economic Picture: November 2011

BobG — Sat, 03 Dec 2011 04:28:47 +0000

The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed. This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring.

–Current: 240.4 million; up 172,000 from last month; up 1.73 million in the last 12 months (from 238.72 million).

Employment is a moving target. In a healthy economy, around 60% of those newly eligible look for employment, so about 1.035 million new jobs per year must be filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers actively looking for work.

–Current: 153.88 million; down 315,000 from last month; down 67,000 in the last 12 months (from 153.95 million). On average the labor force is decreasing by 558 workers per month.

–Employed workers: 140.58 million; up 278,000 from last month; up 1.67 million in the last 12 months (from 139.91 million).

–Unemployed workers: 13.30 million; down 594,000 from last month; down 1.74 million in the last 12 months(from 15.04 million).

–Civilian population not in the labor force: 86.56 million; up 487,000 from last month; up 1.79 million in the last 12 months (from 84.765 million).

At the start of the recession, 62.7% of the population was employed. Currently it is 58.5%.

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) has dropped to 8.6 percent, the lowest since March of 2009.

Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (does not count farm workers).

–Current: 131.708 million; up 120,000 jobs from last month; up 1.60 million the last 12 months (130.108), increased by 2.46 million since the February 2010 low (129.246 million).

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +158,000 to +210,000, and the change for October was revised from +80,000 to +100,000.

Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 109.719 million; up 140,000 jobs from last month; up 1.88 million in the last 12 months (107.841).

Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment.

–Current: 21.989 million; down 20,000 jobs from last month; down 278,000 in the last 12 months (22.267).

Bottom Line: November:

Unemployment rate fell 0.4 percent to 8.6 percent, representing 594,000 fewer people looking for work. Many of these jobs are seasonal that will end with the holiday season. The good news is that these jobs will provide funds for families who otherwise would have coal in their Christmas stockings. The not-so-good news is that half of the reduction came from a decrease in the Civilian labor force which declined to 64 percent of the eligible population.

According to the PayScale Index that tracks changes in compensation for full-time, private-sector employees, salaries for people with equal skills and qualifications have been trending lower since the end of 2008, when the recession was at its peak. For those hired now, starting salaries are lower than then.

Employment rose in a number of service-providing industries including clothing retail (+27,000), food services and drinking places (+33,000), professional and business services (+33,000) and health care (+17,000) while government employment continued to trend down with the U.S. Postal Service losing 5,000 jobs.

Since the employment depression in December 2009, retailers have added an average of 14,000 jobs per month. Many of these jobs went to workers who were formerly in higher paid positions. In the previous 12 months, leisure and hospitality added 253,000 jobs. Over the past 12 months, health care has added an average of 27,000 jobs per month. Employment in both state and local governments has been trending down since the second half of 2008.

Long term unemployed workers, those jobless for 27 weeks or more still accounts for 43% of all the unemployed and 3.7% of the total work force. The number is down by 1.02 million from the May 2010 high of 6.7 million, but we still have far to go. Marking progress by year, 3.4 million were added to the number in 2009, but 2010 saw a decrease of 308,000. So far this year, the number has decreased by 750,000.

When there are more jobs than the talent to fill them, workers were attracted with salaries above market wage. Today, there are fewer jobs, and businesses have their pick. Since they cannot reduce the salaries of their existing workforce without risking losing their experience, they offer less to new hires.

Companies are also offering jobs to lesser qualified applicants with fewer credentials who can still do the job effectively, but will accept lower compensation.

This can be tough for a seasoned worker with a solid career history, but working is better than being unemployed with the spectre of unemployment benefits running out before a better position can be secured. Workers should research objective salary information and consider employee benefits like health insurance and how the job will fit with their life.

The U.S. economy has remained weak and an analysis of long-term unemployment data suggests that about 2 million people have used up their 99 weeks of benefit checks and still cannot find work.

Contributing to the unemployed who are not receiving benefits are college graduates or others seeking jobs for the first time. They aren’t eligible since only those who have lost a job through no fault of their own qualify for benefits.

Washington lawmakers will decide whether to continue the extended benefits by the end of this year. If the program ends, nearly 2.2 million people will be cut off by February 2012.

Congress has extended the program nine times, but it will be the first time the Republican-led House will vote on the issue and they might balk at the $45 billion cost.

For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:

Consumer Confidence Index^®(short-term outlook) improved in November increasing to 56.0 from last month’s 40.9 (1985=100).
Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) increased to 38.3 from last month’s 27.1 rating.
Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) increased to 67.8 from last month’s level of 50.0 on American optimism.

Americans are beconing optimistic about the present or the future.

Nonfarm payroll employment gained 120,000 in November. Previous month changes were: October (+100,000); September (+210,000); August (+104,000); July (+127,000); June (+20,000); May (+53,000); April (+217,000); March (+194,000); February (+235,000); January (+68,000); December (+121,000); November (+93,000).

Census workers peaked at 564,000 workers in May 2010.

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+143,000); June through August 1(+83,667); March through May (+139,667).

The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.6 hours;average hourly and weekly earnings held steady at $19.54 with weekly earnings at $656.54, compared with 12 months ago when they were $644.54.

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 1.86 percent while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 3.4 percent. Cost for food at home has increased by 5.9 percent, gasoline by 19.7 percent, and fuel oil by 25.0 percent.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) decreased by 378,000 to 8.5 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (-296,000) or could only find part-time work (-105,000). The number of persons working part time for non-economic reasons decreased by 36,000.

The number of persons not in the labor force but marginally attached to the labor force remained relatively constant, increasing by 36,000 to 2.59 million (about the same as a year earlier when it was 2.53 million). These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They were not considered part of the labor force because they had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks.

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workers increased by 129,000 in the current month to 1.1 million. These are persons no longer looking for work. This number has decreased by 186,000 from a year earlier.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) decreased by 185,000 to 5.69 million this month. This is nearly 4.3 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.327 million). 43% unemployed persons are in this category or 3.7% of the work force. In 2009, 3.42 million were added to that number, but in 2010 only 308,000 were added. So far in 2011, that number has decreased by 750,000.

The average duration of unemploymenthas increased to 40.9 weeks.A year ago it was33.9 weeks.At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed regain employment in 21.6 weeks, about the same as a year ago.

The long-term unemployed number is down by 1.02 million workers since the May 2010 high of 6.71 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (23.7%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (6.5%), followed up by Adult women (7.8%), Whites then Adult men (8.3%).

Construction lost 12,000 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (-15,000); September (+31,000): August (-14,000); July (+10,000);June (-7,000); May (+3,000); April (+4,000); March (+5,000); February (+30,000); January (-32,000); December (-16,000); November (-2,000).

The quarterly average construction job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+1,333); June through August 1(-3,667); March through May (+4,000).

Currently, there are 5.522 million construction jobs, an increase of 18,000 from a year ago (5.504 million). In December 2007, there were 7.487 million.

Manufacturing gained 2,000 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+6,000); September(-1,000): August (-1,000); July (+34,000);June (+14,000);May (-2,000); April (+28,000), March (+20,000);February (+33,000); January (+49,000);December (+14,000); November (+15,000).

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+2,333); June through August 1(+15,667); March through May (+15,333).

Currently, there are 11.764 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 210,000 from a year ago (11.554 million). In December 2007, there were 13.74 million.

The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 28^th consecutive month. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 52.7, up by 1.9%. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 8 are reporting growth: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Paper Products.

Retail trade gained 49,800 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+12,700); September (+23,100); August (+2,500); July (+28,500);June (+11,500);May (+2,800), April (+64,100); March (-5,600);February (-8,100); January (+27,500);December (+2,800); November(-15,600).

The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+28,533); June through August 1(+14,167); March through May (+19,509).

Currently, there are 14.667 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 226,100 from a year ago (14.441 million). In December 2007, there were 15.58 million.

Employment in retail trade has increased by 319,000 jobs since its low in December 2009 (14.348 million).

Professional and Business Services gained 33,000 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+39,000); September (+54,000); August (+45,000); July (+39,000); June (zero); May (+44,000); April (+45,000); March (+75,000);February (+44,000); January (+31,000); December (+54,000); November (+85,000)

The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+42,000); June through August 1(+24,667); March through May (+54,667).

Currently, there are 17.365 million professional and business services jobs, an increase of 521,000 jobs from a year ago (16.844 million). In December 2007, there were 18.052 million.

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 982,000 jobs since its low in September 2009(16.383 million).

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional and Business Services) gained 22,300 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+15,800); September (+24,700); August (+22,600); July (+13,500); June (-7,000); May (-1,000); April (-5,400); March (+30,000); February (+22,700); January (-11,400); December (+38,100); November (+26,800).

The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+20,933); June through August 1(+9,700); March through May (+21,367).

Currently, there are 2.333 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 169,100 from a year ago (2.164 million). In December 2007, there were 2.55 million.

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.

Educational Services gained 8,300 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+6,700); September (+10,100); August (+4,600); July (+15,800);June (-900);May (-4,900); April (+6,200); March (-2,500);February (+4,000); January (-100); December (+5,400); November (+6,800).

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+8,367); June through August 1(+6,500); March through May (-400).

Currently, there are 3.25 million educational services jobs, an increase of 71,200 from a year ago (3.177 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 18,700 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+30,300); September (+46,100); August (+34,100); July (+37,400);June (+18,800);May (+26,000), April (+34,000); March(+36,000);February (+36,200); January (+12,900);December (+27,900); November (+30,900).

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+31,700); June through August 1(+30,100); March through May (+32,000).

Currently, there are 16.901 million health care and social assistance jobs, an increase of 346,000 from a year ago (16.555 million).

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.295 million jobs since December 2007(15.577 million).

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 20,000 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (-17,000); September (-10,000); August (+15,000); July (-46,000); June (-34,000); May (-46,000); April (-24,000); March (-25,000); February (-30,000); January (-14,000); December (-18,000); November (-35,000).

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: September through November (-15,600); June through August 1(-21,667); March through May (-31,667).

Currently, there are 21.989 million jobs, a decrease of 278,000jobs from a year ago (22.267 million). In December 2007, there were 22.377 million.

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.205 million jobs, a decrease of 4,400 jobs from a year ago (2.200 million). In December 2007, there were 1.974 million.

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 612,400 jobs, a decrease of 30,700jobs from a year ago (643,100). In December 2007, there were 783,000.

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.406 million jobs, a decrease of 13,400 from a year ago (2.393 million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.667 million jobs, a decrease of 84,300 from a year ago (2.751 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.855 million jobs, a decrease of 107,000 from a year ago (7.962 million). In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.244 million jobs, a decrease of 72,400 from a year ago (6.317 million). In December 2007, there were 6.428 million.

Employment explained:

To restore employment to the 5.5% level, 4.84 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.

The government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.

To get to the 8% level, 992,360 workers need jobs. 12.31 million workers will still be unemployed under the new standard.

The Civilian labor force has decreased in the past 12 months by 67,000.

Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries and local jobs.

Our recession history of unemployment:

Unemployed	Rate	2009-2010	Unemployed	Rate	2010-2011
(millions)	Pct		(millions)	Pct
14.6	9.5	June 2010	14.6	9.5	July 2010
14.9	9.6	May	14.8	9.6	August
15.1	9.8	April	14.7	9.6	Sept
14.9	9.7	March	14.9	9.7	Oct
14.9	9.7	Feb	15	9.8	Nov
14.8	9.7	Jan 2010	14.4	9.4	Dec 2010

15.2	9.9	Dec 2009	13.9	9	Jan 2011
15.2	9.9	Nov	13.7	8.9	Feb
15.6	10.1	Oct	13.5	8.8	March
15.1	9.8	Sept	13.7	9	April
15	9.7	Aug	13.9	9.1	May
14.7	9.5	July	14.1	9.2	June
14.8	9.5	June	13.9	9.1	July
14.5	9.4	May	14	9.1	Aug
13.7	8.9	April	14	9.1	Sept
13.3	8.6	March	13.9	9	Oct
12.7	8.2	Feb	13.3	8.6	Nov<=Current
11.9	7.8	Jan 2009			Dec 2011
			10.77	7	<=Economist target

Over the last 12 months, net 1.671 million jobs were filled in the Civilian labor force, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

Where are the jobs?

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).

		Unemployment by Education Level
	Employed		Not grad	Only grad	Some	College	Age over 55
	(millions)	Pct	HS	HS	college	degree	Men	Women
Dec 2007	146.173	5.0	7.80%	4.70%	3.90%	2.10%	3.20%	2.90%
Dec 2008	143.188	7.4	11.2	7.8	5.9	3.7	5.2	4.3
Dec 2009	137.792	10.0	15.3	10.5	9.0	5.0	7.9	5.8
Dec 2010	139.206	9.4	15.3	9.8	8.1	4.8	7.2	5.8
Nov 2011	140.580	8.6	13.2	8.8	7.6	4.4	6.8	5.8
Jan 1-Nov	+193K	-0.8	-248K	-452K	-205K	-132K	-29K	+17K

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 0.2 percent (30,000) of the 153.9 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.

The basic concepts of employment are:

1.		People with jobs are employed
2.		People who are jobless, looking for jobs and available for work are unemployed.
3.		The sum of people employed or unemployed constitute the Civilian labor force.
4.		People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the Civilian labor force.
5.		People who are either institutionalized in a facility (correctional, residential nursing or mental health) or on active duty with the Armed Forces are not counted.

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results.

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.

The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

Updated Dec 09, 2011;

$498,063,280,505 has been awarded
$434,254,279,183 (87.2%) has been paid out to the states

Recession histories:

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009.

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade.

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%.

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II. It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak.

Recession peaks 1974-2011:

		Millions		Labor		Recession
		Unemployed	Pct	Force	Growth	Length
Start	July 1974		5.5	91.9
Peak	May 1975	8.4	9.0			10 mos
Return	May 1979		5.6	104.9	0.1	4 yrs 10 mos
Start	May 1979		5.6	104.9
Peak	Nov 1982	11.9	10.8			3 yrs 6 mo
Return	Apr 1988		5.4	121.6	0.2	8 yrs 11 mos
Start	Nov 1990		6.2	125.8
Peak	May 1992	9.7	7.6			18 mos
Return	Dec 1994		5.5	131.0	0.0	4 yrs 1 mo
Start	Nov 2001		5.5	143.7
Peak	June 2003	9.2	6.3			19 mos
Return	Feb 2004		5.6	146.5	0.0	2 yrs 3 mos
Start	Dec 2007	7.7	5.0	153.7
Peak	Dec 2009	15.7	10.1			24 mos
Return	Nov 2011	13.3	8.6	153.9	0.0	3 yrs 11 mos
				My predicted return		6 yrs 0 mos
						Dec 2013

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2007 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:

A closer look at unemployment for this recession only:

We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

The next Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: December 2011 released January 6, 2012

The last Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: October 2011

Economic Picture: October 2011

BobG — Sat, 05 Nov 2011 00:53:07 +0000

The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed. This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring.

–Current: 240.27 million; up 198,000 from last month; up 1.74 million in the last 12 months (from 238.53million).

Employment is a moving target. In a healthy economy, around 60% of those newly eligible look for employment, so about 1.05 million new jobs per year must be filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers actively looking for work.

–Current: 154.20 million; up 181,000 from last month; up 238,000 in the last 12 months (from 154.00 million). On average the labor force is increasing by 35,000 workers per month.

–Employed workers: 140.30 million; up 277,000 from last month; up 1.218 million in the last 12 months (from 139.08 million).

–Unemployed workers: 13.90 million; down 95,000 from last month; down 979,000 in the last 12 months(from 14.88 million).

–Civilian population not in the labor force: 86.07 million; up 17,000 from last month; up 1.50 million in the last 12 months (from 84.57 million).

At the start of the recession, 62.7% of the population was employed. Currently it is 58.4%.

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) was basically unchanged at 9.0 percent.

Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (does not count farm workers).

–Current: 131.516 million; up 80,000 jobs from last month; up 1.50 million the last 12 months (130.015), increased by 2.09 million since the February 2010 low (129.246 million).

Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 109.537 million; up 137,000 jobs from last month; up 1.82 million in the last 12 months (107.713).

Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment.

–Current: 21.979 million; down 34,000 jobs from last month; down 323,000 in the last 12 months (22.302).

Bottom Line: October:

Although hiring slowed in October, the unemployment rate hit a six-month low to 9.0 percent as job gains in the prior two months were revised to 102,000 higher than previously estimated, pointing to some momentum improvement in the economy’s weak labor market.

In the current reporting month, private employers added 104,000 jobs offset by a reduction in government payrolls by 24,000. The BLS household survey which determines the unemployment rate has shown job gains for three straight months that more than offset the increase in the labor force.

The number of people who want to work but have given up looking for jobs and those working part time for economic reasons, fell after a nine-month high in September. The average length of unemployment retreated from the September high of 40.5 weeks.

For those who are hired in present times rather than prior to 2008, the can expect their starting salary to be lower than then. Many people who have been out of work for a considerable length of time would take the job anyway.

According to FINS’ informal Sign or Decline survey, 65% of 750 respondents said they’d sign onto their dream job even if they were to be paid less than their coworkers. Unfair and unreasonable? Certainly, but according to the PayScale Index that tracks changes in compensation for full-time, private-sector employees, salaries for people with equal skills and qualifications have been trending lower since the end of 2008, when the recession was at its peak.

Before the recession hit, workers were sometimes paid above-market wages when jobs were more plentiful than the talent to fill them. Today, when jobs are fewer than the talent applying for them, companies have their pick and are hiring employees with those same skills in many cases below market averages. Companies often could not retain talent if they try to cut salaries of seasoned staff, so they offer less to new hires instead.

That can be tough to deal with, especially for workers with a solid career history behind them. For them, they may not ever earn as much as they did five years ago, or even as much as their new coworkers. It is hard to accept that they will always earn less than a coworker who started earlier, but that is the hard truth of today’s economy.

For those who are early in their careers, the current reality might not match their expectations while in college or graduate school, but if they are able to start with a company, and grow and expand their responsibilities, they may attract bigger raises down the line.

Some companies complain that they can’t find workers to hire, but they also are only looking for the perfect employee.

Workers receiving offers should research objective information on salaries to make sure they’re not being ripped off. Consider if the pay offered is due to the current business reality or something less rational like college affiliation or personal relations.

Finally, consider whether working is better than being unemployed and whether another offer will be forthcoming before unemployment benefits run out. And salary is also not the only way to measure compensation. Consider employee benefits and how the job will fit into your life.

Many companies are shifting their hiring strategies, especially in finance, consulting and consumer products, filling their ranks with less experienced and younger workers with fewer credentials who can still do the job effectively.

For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:

Consumer Confidence Index^®(short-term outlook) decreased to 39.8 from last month’s 46.4 (1985=100).
Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) decreased to 26.3 from last month’s 33.3 rating.
Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) decreased to 48.7 from last month’s level of 55.1 on American optimism.

Americans are not happy about the present or the future.

Nonfarm payroll employment gained 80,000 in October. Previous month changes were: September (+158,000); August (+104,000[rev]); July (+127,000); June (+20,000); May (+53,000); April (+217,000); March (+194,000); February (+235,000); January (+68,000); December (+121,000); November (+93,000); October (+210,000).

Census workers peaked at 564,000 workers in May 2010.

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: August through October (+114,000); May through July(+66,667); February through April (+215,333).

The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.7[+.1] hours;average hourly and weekly earnings increased slightly to $19.53[+0.10] with weekly earnings at $658.16.

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 1.9 percent while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 3.9 percent. Cost for food at home has increased by 6.3 percent, gasoline by 33.3 percent, and fuel oil by 33.4 percent.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) decreased by 374,000 to 8.9 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (-62,000) or could only find part-time work (-221,000). The number of persons working part time for non-economic reasons increased by 84,000.

The number of persons not in the labor force but marginally attached to the labor forceincreased by 44,000 to 2.55 million).These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks and so were not considered part of the labor force. This number is down by 47,000 from 2.60 million a year ago.

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workersdecreased by 70,000 in the current month to 967,000. These are persons no longer looking for work. This number has decreased by 252,000 from a year earlier.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) decreased by 366,000 to 5.88 million this month. This is more than 4.4 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.327 million). 42.4% unemployed persons are in this category or 3.8% of the work force. In 2009, 3.42 million were added to that number, but in 2010 only 308,000 were added. So far in 2011, that number has decreased by 358,000.

The average duration of unemployment has increased to 39.4 weeks. A year ago it was 33.9 weeks. At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed regain employment in 20.8 weeks, 0.5 more than a year ago.

The long-term unemployed number is down by 834,000 workers since the May 2010 high of 6.71 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (24.1%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (7.3%), followed up by Adult women (8.0%), Whites then Adult men (8.8%).

Construction lost 20,000 jobs in October. Previous month changes were September (+26,000): August (-14,000); July (+10,000);June (-7,000); May (+3,000); April (+4,000); March (+5,000); February (+30,000); January (-32,000); December (-16,000); November (-2,000); October (+4,000).

The quarterly average construction job data has three-month averages at: August through October (-24,000); May through July(+2,000); February through April (+13,000).

Currently, there are 5.525 million construction jobs, an increase of 31,000 from a year ago (5.512 million). In December 2007, there were 7.5 million.

Manufacturing gained 5,000 jobs in October. Previous month changes were September(-3,000): August (-1,000); July (+34,000);June (+14,000);May (-2,000); April (+28,000), March (+20,000);February (+33,000); January (+49,000);December (+14,000); November (+15,000); October (-4,000).

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: August through October (+333); May through July(+15,333); February through April (+27,000).

Currently, there are 11.759 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 220,000 from a year ago (11.539 million). In December 2007, there were 13.73 million.

The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 27^th consecutive month. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 50.8. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 8 are reporting growth led by Computer & Electronic Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Retail trade gained 17,800 jobs in October. Previous month changes were September (+13,300); August (+2,500); July (+28,500);June (+11,500);May (+2,800), April (+64,100); March (-5,600);February (-8,100); January (+27,500);December (+2,800); November(-15,600); October (+38,200).

The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: August through October (+11,500); May through July(+14,267); February through April (+16,800).

Currently, there are 14.612 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 156,100 from a year ago (14.456 million). In December 2007, there were 15.57 million.

Employment in retail trade has increased by 264,000 since its low in December 2009 (14.348 million).

Professional and Business Services gained 32,000 jobs in October. Previous month changes were September (+50,000); August (+45,000); July (+39,000); June (zero); May (+44,000); April (+45,000); March (+75,000);February (+44,000); January (+31,000); December (+54,000); November (+85,000); October (+40,000)

The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: August through October (+42,333); May through July(+27,667); February through April (+93,000).

Currently, there are 17.321 million professional business services jobs, an increase of 562,000 from a year ago (16.759 million). In December 2007, there were 18.05 million.

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 938,000 jobs since its low in September 2009(16.383 million).

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional and Business Services) gained 15,000 jobs in October. Previous month changes were September (+21,100); August (+22,600); July (+13,500); June (-7,000); May (-1,000); April (-5,400); March (+30,000); February (+22,700); January (-11,400); December (+38,100); November (+26,800); October (+27,200)

The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: August through October (+19,567); May through July(+1,833); February through April (+15,767).

Currently, there are 2.306 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 169,100 from a year ago (2.137 million). In December 2007, there were 2.55 million.

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.

Educational Services gained 11,000 jobs in October. Previous month changes were September (+11,900); August (+4,600); July (+15,800);June (-,900);May (-4,900); April (+6,200); March (-2,500);February (+4,000); January (-100); December (+5,400); November (+6,800); October (+25,000).

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: August through October (+9,167); May through July(+3,333); February through April (+2,567).

Currently, there are 3.248 million educational services jobs, an increase of 78,500 from a year ago (3.170 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 16,300 jobs in October. Previous month changes were September (+46,100); August (+34,100); July (+37,400);June (+18,800);May (+26,000), April (+34,000); March(+36,000);February (+36,200); January (+12,900);December (+27,900); November (+30,900); October (+42,100).

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: August through October (+32,167); May through July(+27,400); February through April (+35,400).

Currently, there are 16.873 million health care and social assistance jobs, an increase of 348,500 from a year ago (16.524 million).

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.295 million jobs since December 2007 (15.577 million).

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 24,000 jobs in October. Previous month changes were September (-33,000); August (+15,000); July (-46,000); June (-34,000); May (-46,000); April (-24,000); March (-25,000); February (-30,000); January (-14,000); December (-18,000); November (-35,000); October (+17,000).

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: August through October (-14,000); May through July(-42,000); February through April (-26,333).

Currently, there are 21.979 million jobs, a decrease of 323,000jobs from a year ago (22.302 million). In December 2007, there were 22.38 million.

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.195 million jobs, a decrease of 5,300 jobs from a year ago (2.200 million). In December 2007, there were 1.974 million.

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 617,500 jobs, a decrease of 29,100jobs from a year ago (646,600). In December 2007, there were 781,300.

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.393 million jobs, a decrease of 13,900 from a year ago (2.394 million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.665 million jobs, a decrease of 86,900 from a year ago (2.752 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.862 million jobs, a decrease of 118,400 from a year ago (7.980 million). In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.247 million jobs, a decrease of 81,400 from a year ago (6.329 million). In December 2007, there were 6.428 million.

Employment explained:

To restore employment to the 5.5% level, 5.42 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.

The government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 7% from its current 5.5% level.

To get to the 7% level, 3.10 million workers need jobs. 10.793 million workers will still be unemployed under the new standard.

The Civilian labor force has increased in the past 12 months by 238,000.

Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries and local jobs.

Our recession history of unemployment:

Unemployed	Rate	2009-2010	Unemployed	Rate	2010-2011
(millions)	Pct		(millions)	Pct
14.6	9.5	June 2010	14.6	9.5	July 2010
14.9	9.6	May	14.8	9.6	August
15.1	9.8	April	14.7	9.6	Sept
14.9	9.7	March	14.9	9.7	Oct
14.9	9.7	Feb	15.0	9.8	Nov
14.8	9.7	Jan 2010	14.4	9.4	Dec 2010

15.2	9.9	Dec 2009	13.9	9.0	Jan 2011
15.2	9.9	Nov	13.7	8.9	Feb
15.6	10.1	Oct	13.5	8.8	March
15.1	9.8	Sept	13.7	9.0	April
15.0	9.7	Aug	13.9	9.1	May
14.7	9.5	July	14.1	9.2	June
14.8	9.5	June	13.9	9.1	July
14.5	9.4	May	14.0	9.1	Aug
13.7	8.9	April	14.0	9.1	Sept
13.3	8.6	March	13.9	9.0	Oct<=Current
12.7	8.2	Feb			Nov
11.9	7.8	Jan 2009			Dec 2011
			10.8	7.0	<=Economist target

Over the last 12 months, net 1.218 million jobs were filled in the Civilian labor force, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

Where are the jobs?

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).

		Unemployment by Education Level
	Employed		Not grad	Only grad	Some	College	Age over 55
	(millions)	Pct	HS	HS	college	degree	Men	Women
Dec 2007	146.173	5	7.80%	4.70%	3.90%	2.10%	3.20%	2.90%
Dec 2008	143.188	7.4	11.2	7.8	5.9	3.7	5.2	4.3
Dec 2009	137.792	10	15.3	10.5	9	5	7.9	5.8
Dec 2010	139.206	9.4	15.3	9.8	8.1	4.8	7.2	5.8
Oct 2011	140302	9	13.8	9.6	8.3	4.4	6.9	6.6
Dec-Oct	+277K	-0.4	-167K	-142K	+81K	-159K	+51K	+84K

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 0.2 percent (30,000) of the 154.2 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.

The basic concepts of employment are:

1.		People with jobs are employed
2.		People who are jobless, looking for jobs and available for work are unemployed.
3.		The sum of people employed or unemployed constitute the Civilian labor force.
4.		People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the Civilian labor force.
5.		People who are either institutionalized in a facility (correctional, residential nursing or mental health) or on active duty with the Armed Forces are not counted.

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results.

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.

The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

Updated Oct 28, 2011;

$496,335,082,990 has been awarded
$426,206,928,301 (85.87%) has been paid out to the states

U.S. Bureau of Labor statistics:

Recession histories:

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009.

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade.

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%.

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II. It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak.

Recession peaks 1974-2011:

		Millions		Labor		Recession
		Unemployed	Pct	Force	Growth	Length
Start	July 1974		5.5	91.9
Peak	May 1975	8.4	9.0			10 mos
Return	May 1979		5.6	104.9	0.1	4 yrs 10 mos
Start	May 1979		5.6	104.9
Peak	Nov 1982	11.9	10.8			3 yrs 6 mo
Return	Apr 1988		5.4	121.6	0.2	8 yrs 11 mos
Start	Nov 1990		6.2	125.8
Peak	May 1992	9.7	7.6			18 mos
Return	Dec 1994		5.5	131.0	0.0	4 yrs 1 mo
Start	Nov 2001		5.5	143.7
Peak	June 2003	9.2	6.3			19 mos
Return	Feb 2004		5.6	146.5	0.0	2 yrs 3 mos
Start	Dec 2007	7.7	5.0	153.7
Peak	Dec 2009	15.7	10.1			24 mos
Return	Oct 2011	13.9	9.0	154.1	0.0	3 yrs 10 mos
				My predicted return		6 yrs 0 mos
						Dec 2013

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2007 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:

A closer look at unemployment for this recession only:

We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

The next Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: November 2011 released December 2, 2011

The last Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: September 2011

Economic Picture: September 2011

BobG — Sat, 08 Oct 2011 03:30:26 +0000

Employment Situation:Economic News release

The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed. This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring.

–Current: 240.07 million; up 200,000 from last month; up 1.75 million in the last 12 months (from 238.32 million).

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers actively looking for work.

–Current: 154.02 million; up 423,000 from last month; down 107,000 in the last 12 months (from 154.12 million). On average the labor force is increasing by 35,000 workers per month.

–Employed workers: 140.03 million; up 398,000 from last month; up 647,000 in the last 12 months (from 139.38 million).

–Unemployed workers: 13.99 million; up 25,000 from last month; down 754,000 in the last 12 months (from 14.75 million).

–Civilian population not in the labor force: 86.05 million; down 224,000 from last month; up 1.86 million in the last 12 months (from 84.20 million).

At the start of the recession, 62.7% of the population was employed. Currently it is 58.3%.

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) was basically unchanged at 9.1 (9.08) percent.

Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (does not count farm workers).

–Current: 131.33 million; up 103,000 jobs from last month; up 1.49 million in the last 12 months (129.84), increased by 2.09 million since the February 2010 low (129.246 million).

Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 109.34 million; up 137,000 jobs from last month; up 1.77 millionin the last 12 months (107.57).

Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment.

–Current: 21.985 million; down 34,000 jobs from last month; down 289,000 in the last 12 months (22.274).

Bottom Line: September:

Many people today do not use the automated checkout machines at retail stores because they believe they take jobs away from other people.

They are the least of the unemployment problem. The real problem is that most businesses do not need any more employees.

In the employment circle with an anemic economy, businesses are holding back from investing to grow their business. What if they expand and are are wrong, and the economy shrinks or we double dip into another recession? Then jobs will be lost through layoffs and the expansion will go unused, along with repaying useless loans.

In the 19^th century, the Industrial Revolution founded new industries and absorbed increased employment needs through people leaving the farms. The Great Depression in the early 1930s (mainly caused by the Great Stock Market Crash of 1929) forced unemployment up to nearly 25 percent.

Unemployment was reduced to 10 percent in the late 1930s through government funding of infrastructure projects and repair and the founding of new manufacturing industries like auto, aircraft and electronics.

During the early 1940s, unemployment was reduced to nearly zero, as every person able to fight for our freedom either joined the armed forces or took up jobs formerly held by soldiers.

And when that army came home and rejoined their families, the boom was on, as people spent for new merchandise for their new homes. And then the correction hit, now known as The Great Recession. And nearly four years later, with the recession declared over, the job market is still slim pickings, with nearly 14 million workers vying for 3 million available jobs.

One of the biggest reasons why those workers don’t have jobs, and the prospects of finding a job are not encouraging, can be blamed on technology companies like Microsoft.

Research shows that our country’s Gross Domestic Product is now higher than it was before the Great Recession started in 2008, meaning that companies are producing more goods and services than ever before with more than six million fewer workers than before.

The reason is that technology companies have been busy over the last few decades designing and producing ever-larger database storage tools and ever-more intelligent operating systems and software applications that have absorbed the work formerly performed by a human worker with a pencil and calculator. On the shop floor, intelligently programmed machines cut, fill, sort and pack faster than a human could ever hope to. These machines and systems do it faster and more accurately in smaller work spaces, never take a vacation or sick day, and don’t require health insurance.

We might think that business owners are choosing this path to keep more profits for themselves, and in larger companies, that may be true. But the smaller business owner is doing it for survival, to keep his product and services competitive.

Produced products are also working longer. I have a car that is expected to run for 300,000 miles (with proper maintenance), long after I tire of the body style.

Fewer service people are needed to repair appliances and other items in our homes. We have become a replacement society, and the replacement times are spreading out.

People are still needed for jobs, but unfortunately not the unskilled jobs from earlier times. Those jobs have been taken over by programmable machines and databases.

What is needed are skilled workers, for those jobs that either have not yet been taken over by machines or cannot be done by machines. The proof is in the jobs listed in the search databases.

What is needed are people to program those machines and maintain those databases. What is needed are health care workers and operators of those programmable machines. In two words, skilled workers. And right now, 3 million jobs are waiting to be filled by workers with the right skills. And even if every available job were filled, there would still be nearly 11 million workers without a job.

I’m certain, right now, every one in the massive army of unemployed workers is ready to work, if the right job is offered. But between skill requirements, geographic location and compensation offered, these jobs have not found the right candidate and the candidate has not found the right job.

If it hasn’t dawned on us yet, here’s a bitter truth; the economic recovery is not making a dent in unemployment. This is a fact; wholly accepted by the public, receiving growing awareness by economists, and steadfastly denied by politicians.

Economists are rewriting their opinions with the average duration of unemployment settling at about 41 weeks, double that following the recessions of the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s.

This is causing economists to raise the expected level of “full employment” to 7 percent of the Civilian labor force unemployed, or between 10 and 11 million workers still without jobs.

Consumer Confidence Survey

For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:

Consumer Confidence Index^® (short-term outlook) increased to 45.4 from last month’s 45.2 (1985=100).
Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) decreased to 32.5 from last month’s 34.3 rating.
Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) increased to 54.0 from last month’s level of 52.4 on American optimism.

Americans are not happy about the present or the future.

Household Survey Data

Nonfarm payroll employment gained 103,000 in September. Previous month changes were: August (+57,000[rev]); July (+127,000[rev]); June (+20,000); May (+53,000); April (+217,000); March (+194,000); February (+235,000); January (+68,000); December (+121,000); November (+93,000); October (+210,000); September (-24,000; Census workers -136,000; net -112,000).

Census workers peaked at 564,000 workers in May 2010.

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: July through September (+61,333); April through June(+96,667); January through March (+93,000).

Establishment Survey Data

The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.6[+.1] hours;average hourly and weekly earnings increased slightly to $19.52 [+0.50] with weekly earnings at $655.87.

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 444,000 to 9.3 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (+130,000) or could only find part-time work (+100,000). The number of persons working part time for non-economic reasons increased by 100,000.

The number of persons not in the labor force but marginally attached to the labor force increased by 64,000 to 2.51 million).These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks and so were not considered part of the labor force. This number is down by 37,000 from 2.55 million a year ago.

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workersincreased by 6,000 in the current month to1.04 million. These are persons no longer looking for work. This number has decreased by 172,000 from a year earlier.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) increased by 208,000 to 6.24 million this month. This is more than 4.5 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.327 million). 44.6% unemployed persons are in this category or 4.05% of the work force. In 2009, 3.42 million were added to that number, but in 2010 only 308,000 were added. So far in 2011, that number has decreased by 199,000.

The average duration of unemployment has increased to 40.5 weeks. A year ago it was 33.4 weeks. At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed regain employment in 22.2 weeks, 1.7 more than a year ago.

The long-term unemployed number is down by 470,000 workers since the May 2010 high of 6.71 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (24.6%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (7.8%), followed up by Adult women (8.1%), Whites then Adult men (8.8%).

Construction gained 26,000 jobs in September. Previous month changes were August (-7,000); July (+10,000);June (-7,000); May (+3,000); April (+4,000); March (+5,000); February (+30,000); January (-32,000); December (-16,000); November (-2,000); October (+4,000); September (-11,000).

The quarterly average construction job datahas three-month averages at: July through September (+9,667); April through June (zero); November through March (-8,000).

Currently, there are 5.551 million construction jobs, an increase of 37,000 from a year ago (5.514, million). In December 2007, there were 7.5 million.

Manufacturing lost 13,000 jobs in September. Previous month changes were August (-4,000); July (+34,000);June (+14,000);May (-2,000); April (+28,000), March (+20,000);February (+33,000); January (+49,000);December (+14,000); November (+15,000); October (-4,000); September (-6,000).

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: July through September (+5,667); April through June(+13,333); January through March (+34,000).

Currently, there are 11.741 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 196,000 from a year ago (11.545 million). In December 2007, there were 13.73 million.

The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 26^th consecutive month with new orders and production modestly up. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 51.6, the fifth reading below 60 for 2011 and the past 12 months. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 12 are reporting growth led by Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food; Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Retail trade gained 13,600 jobs in September. Previous month changes were August (-8,000); July (+28,500);June (+11,500);May (+2,800), April (+64,100); March (-5,600);February (-8,100); January (+27,500);December (+2,800); November(-15,600); October (+38,200); September (-3,900).

The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: July through September (+11,367); April through June(+26,133); January through March (+4,600).

Currently, there are 14.592 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 162,000 from a year ago (14.430 million). In December 2007, there were 15.57 million.

Employment in retail trade has increased by 243,900 since its low in December 2009 (14.348 million).

Professional and Business Services gained 48,000 jobs in September. Previous month changes were August (+38,000); July (+39,000); June (zero); May (+44,000); April (+45,000); March (+75,000);February (+44,000); January (+31,000); December (+54,000); November (+85,000); October (+40,000); September (+28,000).

The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: July through September (+41,667); April through June(+29,667); January through March (+50,000).

Currently, there are 17.280 million professional business servicesjobs, an increase of 439,000 from a year ago (16.719 million). In December 2007, there were 18.05 million.

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 897,000 jobs since its low in September 2009(16.383 million).

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional and Business Services) gained 19,400 jobs in September.Previous month changes were August (+20,300); July (+13,500); June (-7,000); May (-1,000); April (-5,400); March (+30,000); February (+22,700); January (-11,400); December (+38,100); November (+26,800); October (+27,200); September (+27,300).

The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: July through September (+17,733); April through June (-4,467); January through March (+13,767).

Currently, there are 2.29 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 177,300 from a year ago (2.11 million). In December 2007, there were 2.55 million.

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.

Educational Services gained 3,900 jobs in September. Previous month changes were August (+4,600); July (+15,800);June (-,900);May (-4,900); April (+6,200); March (-2,500);February (+4,000); January (-100); December (+5,400); November (+6,800); October (+25,000); September (-7,900).

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: July through September (+8,100); April through June(+133); January through March (+467).

Currently, there are 3.228 million educational servicesjobs, an increase of 82,700 from a year ago (3.145 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 40,800 jobs in September. Previous month changes were August (+34,100); July (+37,400);June (+18,800);May (+26,000), April (+34,000); March(+36,000);February (+36,200); January (+12,900);December (+27,900); November (+30,900); October (+42,100); September (+34,200).

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: July through September (+37,433); April through June(+26,267); January through March (+28,367).

Currently, there are 16.853 million health care and social assistancejobs, an increase of 367,600 from a year ago (16.485 million).

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.276 million jobs since December 2007 (15.577 million).

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 34,000 jobs in September. Previous month changes were August (+15,000); July (-46,000); June (-34,000); May (-46,000); April (-24,000); March (-25,000); February (-30,000); January (-14,000); December (-18,000); November (-35,000); October (+17,000); September (-136,000).

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: July through September (-21,667); April through June(-34,667); January through March (-23,000).

Currently, there are 21.985 million jobs, a decrease of 289,000jobs from a year ago (22.274 million). In December 2007, there were 22.38 million.

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.205 million jobs, an increase of 45,000 jobs from a year ago (2.201 million). In December 2007, there were 1.974 million.

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 614,700 jobs, a decrease of 34,200jobs from a year ago (648,900). In December 2007, there were 781,300.

Even with their labor reductions, the USPS reported August 5 that it had sustained a loss of $5.7 billion so far this year, with a $3.1 billion loss in the April through June period alone.

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.398 million jobs, an increase of 13,900 from a year ago (2.384 million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.691 million jobs, a decrease of 62,400 from a year ago (2.754 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.834 million jobs, a decrease of 114,800 from a year ago (7.949 million). In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.242 million jobs, a decrease of 95,600 from a year ago (6.337 million). In December 2007, there were 6.428 million.

Employment explained:

To restore employment to the 5.5% level, 5.52 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.

The government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 7% from its current 5.5% level.

To get to the 7% level, 3.21 million workers need jobs. 10.781 million workers will still be unemployed under the new standard.

The Civilian labor force has decreased in the past 12 months by 107,000.

Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries and local jobs.

Our recession history of unemployment:

Unemployed	Rate	2009-2010	Unemployed	Rate	2010-2011
(millions)	Pct		(millions)	Pct
14.6	9.5	June 2010	14.6	9.5	July 2010
14.9	9.6	May	14.8	9.6	August
15.1	9.8	April	14.7	9.6	Sept
14.9	9.7	March	14.9	9.7	Oct
14.9	9.7	Feb	15.0	9.8	Nov
14.8	9.7	Jan 2010	14.4	9.4	Dec 2010

15.2	9.9	Dec 2009	13.9	9.0	Jan 2011
15.2	9.9	Nov	13.7	8.9	Feb
15.6	10.1	Oct	13.5	8.8	March
15.1	9.8	Sept	13.7	9.0	April
15.0	9.7	Aug	13.9	9.1	May
14.7	9.5	July	14.1	9.2	June
14.8	9.5	June	13.9	9.1	July
14.5	9.4	May	14.0	9.1	Aug
13.7	8.9	April	14.0	9.1	Sept<=Current
13.3	8.6	March			Oct
12.7	8.2	Feb			Nov
11.9	7.8	Jan 2009			Dec 2011

			10.8	7.0	<=Economist target

Over the last 12 months, net 647,000 jobs were filled in the Civilian labor force, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

Where are the jobs?

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).

		Unemployment by Education Level
	Employed		Not grad	Only grad	Some	College	Age over 55
	(millions)	Pct	HS	HS	college	degree	Men	Women
Dec 2007	146.173	5	7.80%	4.70%	3.90%	2.10%	3.20%	2.90%
Dec 2008	143.188	7.4	11.2	7.8	5.9	3.7	5.2	4.3
Dec 2009	137.792	10	15.3	10.5	9	5	7.9	5.8
Dec 2010	139.206	9.4	15.3	9.8	8.1	4.8	7.2	5.8
Sep 2011	140025	9.08	14	9.7	8.4	4.2	6.9	6.6
Dec-Sep	+819K	-0.32	-149K	-106K	+145K	-222K	-13K	+148K

Data collection:

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 0.2 percent (30,000) of the 154.02 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.

The basic concepts of employment are:

1.		People with jobs are employed
2.		People who are jobless, looking for jobs and available for work are unemployed.
3.		The sum of people employed or unemployed constitute the Civilian labor force.
4.		People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the Civilian labor force.
5.		People who are either institutionalized in a facility (correctional, residential nursing or mental health) or on active duty with the Armed Forces are not counted.

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results.

Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.

The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

Updated Oct 14, 2011;

$496,622,585,670has been awarded
$423,864,702,056 (85.35%) has been paid out to the states

U.S. Bureau of Labor statistics:

Recession histories:

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009.

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade.

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%.

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II. It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak.

Recession peaks 1974-2011:

		Millions		Labor		Recession
		Unemployed	Pct	Force	Growth	Length
Start	July 1974		5.5	91.9
Peak	May 1975	8.4	9.0			10 mos
Return	May 1979		5.6	104.9	14.1%	4 yrs 10 mos
Start	May 1979		5.6	104.9
Peak	Nov 1982	11.9	10.8			3 yrs 6 mo
Return	Apr 1988		5.4	121.6	15.9%	8 yrs 11 mos
Start	Nov 1990		6.2	125.8
Peak	May 1992	9.7	7.6			18 mos
Return	Dec 1994		5.5	131.0	4.1%	4 yrs 1 mo
Start	Nov 2001		5.5	143.7
Peak	June 2003	9.2	6.3			19 mos
Return	Feb 2004		5.6	146.5	1.9%	2 yrs 3 mos
Start	Dec 2007	7.7	5.0	153.7
Peak	Dec 2009	15.7	10.1			24 mos
Return	Sept 2011	13.992	9.1	154.0	0.2%	3 yrs 9 mos
				My predicted return		6 yrs 0 mos
						Dec 2013

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2007 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:

A closer look at unemployment for this recession only:

We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

The next Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: October 2011 released November 4, 2011

The last Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: August 2011

Economic Picture: August 2011

BobG — Fri, 09 Sep 2011 03:03:07 +0000

Employment Situation:Economic News release

The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed. This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring.

–Current: 239.87 million; up 200,000 from last month; up 1.77 million in the last 12 months (from 238.10 million).

Employment is a moving target. In a healthy economy, around 60% of those newly eligible look for employment, so about 116,000 jobs a month or 1.4 million new jobs per year must be filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers actively looking for work.

–Current: 153.59 million; up 366,000 from last month; down 138,177 in the last 12 months (from 154.12 million).

–Employed workers: 139.63 million; up 331,000 from last month; up 360,000 in the last 12 months (from 139.27 million).

–Unemployed workers: 13.97 million; up 156,000 from last month; down 882,000 in the last 12 months(from 14.85 million).

–Civilian population not in the labor force: 86.28 million; down 165,000 from last month; up 2.29 million in the last 12 months (from 83.98 million).

At the start of the recession, 62.7% of the population was employed. Currently it is 58.2%.

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) was basically unchanged at 9.1 (9.09) percent.

Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (does not count farm workers).

–Current: 131.13 million; net zero jobs from last month; up 1.26 millionin the last 12 months (129.87), increased by 1.884 million since the February 2010 low (129.246 million).

Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 109.17 million; up 17,000 jobs from last month; up 1.71 millionin the last 12 months (107.46).

Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment.

–Current: 22.034 million; down 17,000 jobs from last month; down 450,000in the last 12 months (22.412).

Bottom Line:

August added/lost zero jobs: a labor standoff.

The latest monthly jobs report that showed that job growth unexpectedly skidded to a stop in August is increasing the belief that the president and the U.S. Federal Reserve will move to stimulate the economy.

Nonfarm payrolls were unchanged last month and figures for the previous two months were revised downward to show a combined 58,000 fewer jobs created than had been estimated in the BLS survey.

The lack of hiring in the U.S. last month surprised economists, who were expecting 93,000 jobs to be added.

The jobs picture is worse than the unemployment rate conveys, because America’s 14 million unemployed are also competing with 8.8 million “underemployed,” part-time workers who want full-time jobs.

When consumer demand eventually picks up, employers will likely increase hours for part-timers before they add jobs. It means they have room to expand without hiring.

The unemployed will face another source of competition as well, once the economy improves; the roughly 2.6 million people who aren’t counted as unemployed because they’ve stopped looking for work. Once they start looking again, they’ll be reclassified as unemployed and with an increased labor force, the unemployment rate will likely rise.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office expects the rate to exceed 8 percent until 2014. The White House predicts it will average 9 percent next year.

Combined, the 14 million officially unemployed, the “underemployed” part-timers who want full-time work, and “discouraged” people who have stopped looking make up 16.2 percent of working-age Americans.

After the recession hit, many companies went into survival mode and slashed workers’ hours. If those those lost hours were restored, they would represent enough hours to equal about 950,000 full-time jobs; but because employers are still reluctant to increase hours even for part-timers, hiring appears a long way off.

On average nationally, 4.5 unemployed people are competing for each job, while in a healthy economy, the average is about two.

The president is strongly in favor of raising taxes on the wealthy, who pay overall, a lower percentage of their income in taxes. Republicans are strongly against the increase, both as a matter of age-old Republican policy, and because they verbally predict that their business-owning electorate will not invest to help hire workers.

Of course, with the lower taxes they are now paying, and the tax breaks they now receive, business owners haven’t done much hiring to date.

It is a rule of nature that business management and owners will keep as much money as they can while paying out as little as possible for labor. Recent tax breaks have not been spent on hiring, it has been held “for a rainy day.”

It is glaringly evident that Trickle down economics does not work. Business owners are not altruistic. Examples are the oil companies, who continue to log ever greater profits, while some Americans are spending up to half of their take-home pay on fuel costs.

Recent polls show, over and over again, that voters think jobs — not debt, not the deficit, not size of government — is the most important issue. And they want Washington to do something.

It has become increasingly apparent that the government is ineffective in creating jobs in the public sector. The bickering and infighting, not only between the two major political parties, but within the Republican party itself, has rendered Congress impotent, and through some not so subtle rebellion in the ranks has rendered presidential leadership ineffective as well.

On September 8, the president unveiled his new jobs proposal, outlining steps to be taken to put American workers back to work. He will spend countless hours selling the plan to the voters and repairing his image as a leader as well.

Republicans are vowing to look at the president’s proposals while calling on him to consider theirs as well. In Washington speak, they’re trying to figure out how to kill proposals that they have long supported, without looking like the obstructionists they really are.

Just before the president spoke to Congress about his job plan on September 8, House Speaker John Boehner reflected on his party’s position on the upcoming speech.

We must never forget the key aim of Republicans is to gain power, even if they destroy the nation in the process.

The president must show his resolve in solving this problem. He must abandon his image as the World’s Most Rational Man and close the sale of the Jobs Plan by connecting the Jobs Plan to the people’s desire for a better America with responsibility to one another. He must also make Americans believe in his resolve that he will fight to the end for their jobs and a better America.

Americans need to know their president will not give up on them when times are tough.

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 1.9 percent while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 3.8 percent. Cost for food at home has increased by 6.0 percent, gasoline by 32.4 percent, and fuel oil by 35.4 percent.

The economy expanded at an annual rate of just 0.7 percent in the first half of the year, with an associated pullback on hiring, after high gas prices, meager wage gains and supply disruptions caused by the Japan calamity contributed to a slowdown in growth.

Hourly labor rates are also being depressed by the virtual outlawing of collective bargaining by Republican lawmakers in states like Wisconsin, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Ohio, and ‘right-to-work’ states that prohibit agreements that make membership, payment of union dues, or fees a condition of employment.

Labor unions are now formulating a new strategy to build an independent voice separate from any political party.

On a positive note, the limiting of collective bargaining for public employees has worked to close budget shortfalls without costing jobs for teachers and other workers, and may be part of a new way of doing business for states.

The national switch to anemic job growth and high levels of prolonged unemployment threatens to transform many of America’s productive workers into people permanently unemployable. If this becomes the new norm, our nation’s position as a global economic force is at risk.

For those over 16 years old, only 58 percent are working, a level not seen since 1983, and it is worse for older workers, young people, blacks and Hispanics and those with only a basic education.

It has been found that persistently high unemployment has negative long-term social and economic consequences for workers and their families. The longer people are unemployed, the more their job skills decline, making them less employable, with fewer and more remote network connections.

Also workers who enter the workforce during a recession have lower lifetime earnings than those who began working when jobs were plentiful. Their entire careers and financial livelihoods are negatively affected by their early labor market experience.

And older unemployed workers have their financial situations negatively affected as they often leave the labor market early, reducing their retirement incomes.

There are actions like work sharing and subsidized jobs that can be taken to address high unemployment.

Work sharing is a state unemployment insurance program that allows companies faced with reduced demand to reduce the hours of all employees instead of laying some off. Company workers maintain their jobs and benefits and also receive partial unemployment compensation to offset some of their lost income.

Twenty-two states currently have work sharing programs. According to the Department of Labor, during 2009 and 2010, use of this program saved 265,000 jobs.

Subsidized jobs provides opportunity for youth and long-term unemployed workers. Last year, the government ended a successful, two-year subsidized jobs program that provided employment for about 250,000 people. The program put people to work while jobs were scarce, and helped employers boost productivity.

The economy cannot move forward without reviving the purchasing power of America’s disappearing middle class.

We can take a lesson from Germany that has grown faster than the United States for the last 15 years. While Americans’ average hourly pay has risen only 6 percent since 1985, adjusted for inflation, German workers’ pay has risen almost 30 percent.

Germany has done it mainly by becoming the model for staving off a labor market crisis by focusing on education and by maintaining strong labor unions. The German labor policy of Kurzarbeit (short work) is getting the most credit for the drop in unemployment.

Validating the view that it is better to have something than nothing, Germany is working a strategy of work sharing. Under Kurzarbeit, the German government pays as much as 67% of lost net wages of a worker if their employer needs to cut wages and working times during economic slowdown.

Social contributions such as pensions, health care and jobless benefits are fully met by the German Federal Employment Agency. Temporary workers are also eligible.

If no work is available, the employee is obligated to enroll in training and skill development with costs paid for by the agency.

The advantage to employers is that they can retain their trained staff during periods of economic slowdown, avoiding the cost of rehiring once the economic situation improves.

When the president unveiled his jobs proposal to Congress on September 8, it included extending jobless benefits and payroll tax cuts, offering hiring incentives to employers, and allocating funding for infrastructure improvement projects.

Although Republicans have said they will review the proposal, they are already against it, contending that such spending initiatives have not helped the economy in spite of the $797 billion stimulus package of 2009. Independent economists say the stimulus did help the economy but the major shortcoming of the 2009 stimulus was that it was not large enough to make up for the gaping hole left in the economy.

Consumer Confidence Survey

Infrastructure projects are popular among voters and Obama may be able to get Republican grudging agreement on some proposals, but just enough that Americans don’t see them as uncaring for American safety.

The only way to break the unemployment deadlock seems to be to create major infrastructure projects in the states funded by the government and establish a program of job sharing, interning and functional education tied to unemployment benefits. Private business will not do it.

Responsibility for the unemployment situation also lies with the individual. The increasing number of workers dropping from the work force perhaps includes those whose benefits have expired, and have started neighborhood cottage industries for income.

And perhaps that is the future of employment; tiny businesses that start in a garage or on a kitchen table behind a computer screen, and whose services expand to compete with and merge or absorb larger companies, hiring workers along the way. The nation’s history is full of such stories where an individual took charge of his destiny rather than rely on the whims of large companies.

We’ll see.

For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:

Consumer Confidence Index^® (short-term outlook) decreased to 44.5 from last month’s 59.2 (1985=100).
Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) decreased to 33.3 from last month’s 35.7 rating.
Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) increased to 51.9 from last month’s level of 74.9 on American optimism.

Americans are not happy about the present or the future.

Household Survey Data

Nonfarm payroll employment gained zero jobs in August. Previous month changes were: July (+85,000); June (+20,000); May (+53,000); April (+217,000); March (+194,000); February (+235,000); January (+68,000); December (+121,000); November (+93,000); October (+210,000); September (-24,000; Census workers -136,000; net -112,000); August (-57,000; Census workers -114,000; net +57,000); July (-66,000; Census workers -143,000; net +77,000).

Census workers peaked at 564,000 workers in May 2010.

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: June through August (+35,000); March through May(+154,667); December through February (+141,333).

Establishment Survey Data

The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.5 hours;average hourly and weekly earnings increased slightly to $19.47 with weekly earnings at $652.25.

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.

In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 3 cents. This decline followed an 11-cent gain in July.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 430,000 to 8.8 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (+146,000) or could only find part-time work (+219,000).

The number of persons not in the labor force but marginally attached to the labor forceincreased by 164,000 to 1.24 million).These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks and so were not considered part of the labor force. This number is down by 1.13 million from 2.62 million a year ago.

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workersincreased by 2,000 in the current month to407,000. These are persons no longer looking for work. This number has decreased by 703,000 from a year earlier.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) decreased by 151,000 to 6.034 million this month. This is more than 4.5 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.327 million). 43.2% unemployed persons are in this category or 3.9% of the work force. In 2009, 3.52 million were added to that number, but in 2010 only 308,000 were added. So far in 2011, that number has decreased by 407,000.

The average duration of unemployment has decreased to 40.3 weeks. A year ago it was 33.5 weeks. At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed regain employment in 21.8 weeks, 1.2 more than a year ago.

The long-term unemployed number is down by 525,000 workers since the May 2010 high of 6.71 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (25.4%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (7.1%), followed up by Adult women (8.0%), Whites then Adult men (9.1%).

Construction lost 5,000 jobs in August. Previous month changes were July (+7,000);June (-7,000); May (+3,000); April (+4,000); March (+5,000); February (+30,000); January (-32,000); December (-16,000); November (-2,000); October (+4,000); September (-11,000); August (+34,000) reflecting 10,000 workers on strike in July who returned to work.

The quarterly average construction job datahas three-month averages at: June through August (-1,667); March through May (+4,000); December through February (-6,000).

Currently, there are 5.524 million construction jobs, an increase of 4,000 from a year ago (5.520, million). In December 2007, there were 7.5 million.

Manufacturing lost 3,000 jobs in August. Previous month changes were July (+36,000);June (+14,000);May (-2,000); April (+28,000), March (+20,000);February (+33,000); January (+49,000);December (+14,000); November (+15,000); October (-4,000); September (-6,000); August (-26,000).

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: June through August (+15,667); March through May(+15,333); December through February (+32,000).

Currently, there are 11.757 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 206,000 from a year ago (11.551 million). In December 2007, there were 13.73 million.

The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 25^th consecutive month with new orders and production modestly up. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 50.6, the fourth reading below 60 for 2011 and the past 12 months. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 10 are reporting growth led by Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food.

Retail trade lost 7,800 jobs in August. Previous month changes were July (+26,400);June (+11,500);May (+2,800), April (+64,100); March (-5,600);February (-8,100); January (+27,500);December (+2,800); November(-15,600); October (+38,200); September (-3,900); August (+6,400).

The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: June through August (+10,033); March through May(+20,433); December through February (+7,400).

Currently, there are 14.569 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 156,600 from a year ago (14.413 million). In December 2007, there were 15.57 million.

Employment in retail trade has increased by 221,200 since its low in December 2009.

Professional and Business Services gained 28,000 jobs in August. Previous month changes were July (+28,000); June (zero); May (+44,000); April (+45,000); March (+75,000);February (+44,000); January (+31,000); December (+54,000); November (+85,000); October (+40,000); September (+28,000); August (+38,000).

The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: June through August (+18,600); March through May(+54,667); December through February (+50,000).

Currently, there are 17.211 million professional business servicesjobs, an increase of 500,000 from a year ago (16.711 million). In December 2007, there were 18.05 million.

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 828,000 jobs since its low in September 2009.

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional and Business Services) gained 4,700 jobs in August.Previous month changes were July (+1,200); June (-7,000); May (-1,000); April (-5,400); March (+30,000); February (+22,700); January (-11,400); December (+38,100); November (+26,800); October (+27,200); September (+27,300); August (+22,500).

The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: June through August (-366); March through May(+78,667); December through February (+16,467).

Currently, there are 2.24 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 149,900 from a year ago (2.09 million). In December 2007, there were 2.55 million.

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.

Educational Services lost 1,600 jobs in August. Previous month changes were July (+13,200);June (-,900);May (-4,900); April (+6,200); March (-2,500);February (+4,000); January (-100); December (+5,400); November (+6,800); October (+25,000); September (-7,900); August (+9,700).

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: June through August (+3,567); March through May(-400); December through February (+3,100).

Currently, there are 3.215 million educational servicesjobs, an increase of 54,800 from a year ago (3.16 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 35,500 jobs in August. Previous month changes were July (+32,900);June (+18,800);May (+26,000), April (+34,000); March(+36,000);February (+36,200); January (+12,900);December (+27,900); November (+30,900); October (+42,100); September (+34,200); August (+31,300).

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: June through August (+29,067); March through May(+32,000); December through February (+25,667).

Currently, there are 16.809 million health care and social assistancejobs, an increase of 358,000 from a year ago (16.451 million).

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.232 million jobs since December 2007 (15.577 million).

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 17,000 jobs in August. Previous month changes were July (-37,000); June (-34,000); May (-46,000); April (-24,000); March (-25,000); February (-30,000); January (-14,000); December (-18,000); November (-35,000); October (+17,000); September (-136,000); August (-144,000).

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: June through August (-29,333); March through May(-31,667); December through February (-20,667).

Currently, there are 21.962 million jobs, a decrease of 619,000jobs from a year ago (22.412 million). In December 2007, there were 22.38 million.

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.201 million jobs, an decrease of 74,500 jobs from a year ago (2.276 million). In December 2007, there were 1.974 million.

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 620,700 jobs, a decrease of 31,000jobs from a year ago (651,700). In December 2007, there were 781,300.

Even with their labor reductions, the USPS reported August 5 that it had sustained a loss of $5.7 billion so far this year, with a $3.1 billion loss in the April through June period alone.

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.388 million jobs, a decrease of 9,800 from a year ago (2.378million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.691 million jobs, a decrease of 63,100 from a year ago (2.754 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.810 million jobs, a decrease of 194,000 from a year ago (8.003 million). In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.251 million jobs, a decrease of 98,200 from a year ago (6.349 million). In December 2007, there were 6.428 million.

Employment explained:

Unemployed	2009	Rate	Unemployed	2010-2011
(millions)		Pct	(millions)
15.3	Dec	9.7	15.0	Jan, Feb, Mar, May 2010
15.4	Nov	9.9	15.3	April 2010
15.7	Oct	9.5	14.6	June, July 2010
15.1	Sept	9.6	14.9	August 2010
14.9	Aug	9.6	14.8	September 2010
14.7	June	9.7	14.9	October 2010
14.5	May, July	9.8	15.1	November 2010
13.7	Apr	9.4	14.5	December 2010
13.2	Mar	9.0	13.9	January 2011
12.5	Feb	8.9	13.7	February 2011
11.7	Jan	8.8	13.5	March 2011
		9.0	13.8	April 2011
		9.1	13.9	May 2011
		9.2	14.1	June 2011
		9.1	13.9	July 2011
		9.1	14.0	<=current August
		8.0	12.3	<=Govt target 8%
		5.5	8.4	<=my target 5.5%

Over the last 12 months, net 360,000 jobs were filled in the Civilian labor force, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

Where are the jobs?

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).

		Unemployment by Education Level
	Employed		Not grad	Only grad	Some	College	Age over 55
	(millions)	Pct	HS	HS	college	degree	Men	Women
Dec 2007	146.173	5	7.80%	4.70%	3.90%	2.10%	3.20%	2.90%
Dec 2008	143.188	7.4	11.2	7.8	5.9	3.7	5.2	4.3
Dec 2009	137.792	10	15.3	10.5	9	5	7.9	5.8
Dec 2010	139.206	9.4	15.3	9.8	8.1	4.8	7.2	5.8
Aug 2011	139627	9.09	14.3	9.6	8.2	4.3	7	7.1
Dec-Aug	+421K	-0.31	-89K	+32K	+10K	+2K	-69K	-24K

Data collection:

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 0.2 percent (30,000) of the 153.6 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.

The basic concepts of employment are:

1.		People with jobs are employed
2.		People who are jobless, looking for jobs and available for work are unemployed.
3.		The sum of people employed or unemployed constitute the Civilian labor force.
4.		People who are neither employed nor unemployed are not in the Civilian labor force.
5.		People who are either institutionalized in a facility (correctional, residential nursing or mental health) or on active duty with the Armed Forces are not counted.

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results.

Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.

The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program (signed into law by President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008) cost much less than expected. Originally expected to exceed $300 billion, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), as of December 10, 2010 estimates the program will cost only $25 billion, freeing up more than $200 billion to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits.

As of Sept 9, 2011,
$491,111,904,055has been awarded
$415,638,427,027 (84.63%) has been paid out to the states