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U.S. Bureau of Labor statistics:

Employment Situation:Economic News release

The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed. This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring.

–Current: 240.07 million; up 200,000 from last month; up 1.75 million in the last 12 months (from 238.32 million).

Employment is a moving target. In a healthy economy, around 60% of those newly eligible look for employment, so about 1.05 million new jobs per year must be filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers actively looking for work.

–Current: 154.02 million; up 423,000 from last month; down 107,000 in the last 12 months (from 154.12 million). On average the labor force is increasing by 35,000 workers per month.

–Employed workers: 140.03 million; up 398,000 from last month; up 647,000 in the last 12 months (from 139.38 million).

–Unemployed workers: 13.99 million; up 25,000 from last month; down 754,000 in the last 12 months (from 14.75 million).

–Civilian population not in the labor force: 86.05 million; down 224,000 from last month; up 1.86 million in the last 12 months (from 84.20 million).

At the start of the recession, 62.7% of the population was employed. Currently it is 58.3%.

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) was basically unchanged at 9.1 (9.08) percent.

Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (does not count farm workers).

–Current: 131.33 million; up 103,000 jobs from last month; up 1.49 million in the last 12 months (129.84), increased by 2.09 million since the February 2010 low (129.246 million).

Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 109.34 million; up 137,000 jobs from last month; up 1.77 millionin the last 12 months (107.57).

Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment.

–Current: 21.985 million; down 34,000 jobs from last month; down 289,000 in the last 12 months (22.274).

Bottom Line: September:

Many people today do not use the automated checkout machines at retail stores because they believe they take jobs away from other people.

They are the least of the unemployment problem. The real problem is that most businesses do not need any more employees.

In the employment circle with an anemic economy, businesses are holding back from investing to grow their business. What if they expand and are are wrong, and the economy shrinks or we double dip into another recession? Then jobs will be lost through layoffs and the expansion will go unused, along with repaying useless loans.

In the 19^th century, the Industrial Revolution founded new industries and absorbed increased employment needs through people leaving the farms. The Great Depression in the early 1930s (mainly caused by the Great Stock Market Crash of 1929) forced unemployment up to nearly 25 percent.

Unemployment was reduced to 10 percent in the late 1930s through government funding of infrastructure projects and repair and the founding of new manufacturing industries like auto, aircraft and electronics.

During the early 1940s, unemployment was reduced to nearly zero, as every person able to fight for our freedom either joined the armed forces or took up jobs formerly held by soldiers.

And when that army came home and rejoined their families, the boom was on, as people spent for new merchandise for their new homes. And then the correction hit, now known as The Great Recession. And nearly four years later, with the recession declared over, the job market is still slim pickings, with nearly 14 million workers vying for 3 million available jobs.

One of the biggest reasons why those workers don’t have jobs, and the prospects of finding a job are not encouraging, can be blamed on technology companies like Microsoft.

Research shows that our country’s Gross Domestic Product is now higher than it was before the Great Recession started in 2008, meaning that companies are producing more goods and services than ever before with more than six million fewer workers than before.

The reason is that technology companies have been busy over the last few decades designing and producing ever-larger database storage tools and ever-more intelligent operating systems and software applications that have absorbed the work formerly performed by a human worker with a pencil and calculator. On the shop floor, intelligently programmed machines cut, fill, sort and pack faster than a human could ever hope to. These machines and systems do it faster and more accurately in smaller work spaces, never take a vacation or sick day, and don’t require health insurance.

We might think that business owners are choosing this path to keep more profits for themselves, and in larger companies, that may be true. But the smaller business owner is doing it for survival, to keep his product and services competitive.

Produced products are also working longer. I have a car that is expected to run for 300,000 miles (with proper maintenance), long after I tire of the body style.

Fewer service people are needed to repair appliances and other items in our homes. We have become a replacement society, and the replacement times are spreading out.

People are still needed for jobs, but unfortunately not the unskilled jobs from earlier times. Those jobs have been taken over by programmable machines and databases.

What is needed are skilled workers, for those jobs that either have not yet been taken over by machines or cannot be done by machines. The proof is in the jobs listed in the search databases.

What is needed are people to program those machines and maintain those databases. What is needed are health care workers and operators of those programmable machines. In two words, skilled workers. And right now, 3 million jobs are waiting to be filled by workers with the right skills. And even if every available job were filled, there would still be nearly 11 million workers without a job.

I’m certain, right now, every one in the massive army of unemployed workers is ready to work, if the right job is offered. But between skill requirements, geographic location and compensation offered, these jobs have not found the right candidate and the candidate has not found the right job.

If it hasn’t dawned on us yet, here’s a bitter truth; the economic recovery is not making a dent in unemployment. This is a fact; wholly accepted by the public, receiving growing awareness by economists, and steadfastly denied by politicians.

Economists are rewriting their opinions with the average duration of unemployment settling at about 41 weeks, double that following the recessions of the 1980s, 1990s and early 2000s.

This is causing economists to raise the expected level of “full employment” to 7 percent of the Civilian labor force unemployed, or between 10 and 11 million workers still without jobs.

Consumer Confidence Survey

For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:

• Consumer Confidence Index^® (short-term outlook) increased to 45.4 from last month’s 45.2 (1985=100).
• Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) decreased to 32.5 from last month’s 34.3 rating.
• Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) increased to 54.0 from last month’s level of 52.4 on American optimism.

Americans are not happy about the present or the future.

Household Survey Data

Nonfarm payroll employment gained 103,000 in September. Previous month changes were: August (+57,000[rev]); July (+127,000[rev]); June (+20,000); May (+53,000); April (+217,000); March (+194,000); February (+235,000); January (+68,000); December (+121,000); November (+93,000); October (+210,000); September (-24,000; Census workers -136,000; net -112,000).

Census workers peaked at 564,000 workers in May 2010.

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: July through September (+61,333); April through June(+96,667); January through March (+93,000).

Between January 2007 and December 2009, 6.9 million workers were displaced from jobs they had held for 3 years or more. By January 2010, 49 percent of them were reemployed, but not necessarily in the same industries they had worked before.

Average weekly hours and overtime

The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.6[+.1] hours;average hourly and weekly earnings increased slightly to $19.52 [+0.50] with weekly earnings at $655.87.

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 1.9 percent while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 3.9 percent. Cost for food at home has increased by 6.3 percent, gasoline by 33.3 percent, and fuel oil by 33.4 percent.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 444,000 to 9.3 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (+130,000) or could only find part-time work (+100,000). The number of persons working part time for non-economic reasons increased by 100,000.

The number of persons not in the labor force but marginally attached to the labor force increased by 64,000 to 2.51 million).These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks and so were not considered part of the labor force. This number is down by 37,000 from 2.55 million a year ago.

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workersincreased by 6,000 in the current month to1.04 million. These are persons no longer looking for work. This number has decreased by 172,000 from a year earlier.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) increased by 208,000 to 6.24 million this month. This is more than 4.5 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.327 million). 44.6% unemployed persons are in this category or 4.05% of the work force. In 2009, 3.42 million were added to that number, but in 2010 only 308,000 were added. So far in 2011, that number has decreased by 199,000.

The average duration of unemployment has increased to 40.5 weeks. A year ago it was 33.4 weeks. At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed regain employment in 22.2 weeks, 1.7 more than a year ago.

The long-term unemployed number is down by 470,000 workers since the May 2010 high of 6.71 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (24.6%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (7.8%), followed up by Adult women (8.1%), Whites then Adult men (8.8%).

Establishment Survey Data

Construction gained 26,000 jobs in September. Previous month changes were August (-7,000); July (+10,000);June (-7,000); May (+3,000); April (+4,000); March (+5,000); February (+30,000); January (-32,000); December (-16,000); November (-2,000); October (+4,000); September (-11,000).

The quarterly average construction job datahas three-month averages at: July through September (+9,667); April through June (zero); November through March (-8,000).

Currently, there are 5.551 million construction jobs, an increase of 37,000 from a year ago (5.514, million). In December 2007, there were 7.5 million.

Manufacturing lost 13,000 jobs in September. Previous month changes were August (-4,000); July (+34,000);June (+14,000);May (-2,000); April (+28,000), March (+20,000);February (+33,000); January (+49,000);December (+14,000); November (+15,000); October (-4,000); September (-6,000).

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: July through September (+5,667); April through June(+13,333); January through March (+34,000).

Currently, there are 11.741 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 196,000 from a year ago (11.545 million). In December 2007, there were 13.73 million.

The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 26^th consecutive month with new orders and production modestly up. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 51.6, the fifth reading below 60 for 2011 and the past 12 months. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 12 are reporting growth led by Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Food; Beverage & Tobacco Products.

Retail trade gained 13,600 jobs in September. Previous month changes were August (-8,000); July (+28,500);June (+11,500);May (+2,800), April (+64,100); March (-5,600);February (-8,100); January (+27,500);December (+2,800); November(-15,600); October (+38,200); September (-3,900).

The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: July through September (+11,367); April through June(+26,133); January through March (+4,600).

Currently, there are 14.592 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 162,000 from a year ago (14.430 million). In December 2007, there were 15.57 million.

Employment in retail trade has increased by 243,900 since its low in December 2009 (14.348 million).

Professional and Business Services gained 48,000 jobs in September. Previous month changes were August (+38,000); July (+39,000); June (zero); May (+44,000); April (+45,000); March (+75,000);February (+44,000); January (+31,000); December (+54,000); November (+85,000); October (+40,000); September (+28,000).

Professional and Business services consist of legal, accounting, management consulting, administrative and support services. In hard times, they are the first to be trimmed. In recovery, the jobs grow in these fields, as employers emerge from survival mode.

The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: July through September (+41,667); April through June(+29,667); January through March (+50,000).

Currently, there are 17.280 million professional business servicesjobs, an increase of 439,000 from a year ago (16.719 million). In December 2007, there were 18.05 million.

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 897,000 jobs since its low in September 2009(16.383 million).

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional and Business Services) gained 19,400 jobs in September.Previous month changes were August (+20,300); July (+13,500); June (-7,000); May (-1,000); April (-5,400); March (+30,000); February (+22,700); January (-11,400); December (+38,100); November (+26,800); October (+27,200); September (+27,300).

The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: July through September (+17,733); April through June (-4,467); January through March (+13,767).

Currently, there are 2.29 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 177,300 from a year ago (2.11 million). In December 2007, there were 2.55 million.

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.

Educational Services gained 3,900 jobs in September. Previous month changes were August (+4,600); July (+15,800);June (-,900);May (-4,900); April (+6,200); March (-2,500);February (+4,000); January (-100); December (+5,400); November (+6,800); October (+25,000); September (-7,900).

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: July through September (+8,100); April through June(+133); January through March (+467).

Currently, there are 3.228 million educational servicesjobs, an increase of 82,700 from a year ago (3.145 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 40,800 jobs in September. Previous month changes were August (+34,100); July (+37,400);June (+18,800);May (+26,000), April (+34,000); March(+36,000);February (+36,200); January (+12,900);December (+27,900); November (+30,900); October (+42,100); September (+34,200).

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: July through September (+37,433); April through June(+26,267); January through March (+28,367).

Currently, there are 16.853 million health care and social assistancejobs, an increase of 367,600 from a year ago (16.485 million).

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.276 million jobs since December 2007 (15.577 million).

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 34,000 jobs in September. Previous month changes were August (+15,000); July (-46,000); June (-34,000); May (-46,000); April (-24,000); March (-25,000); February (-30,000); January (-14,000); December (-18,000); November (-35,000); October (+17,000); September (-136,000).

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: July through September (-21,667); April through June(-34,667); January through March (-23,000).

Currently, there are 21.985 million jobs, a decrease of 289,000jobs from a year ago (22.274 million). In December 2007, there were 22.38 million.

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.205 million jobs, an increase of 45,000 jobs from a year ago (2.201 million). In December 2007, there were 1.974 million.

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 614,700 jobs, a decrease of 34,200jobs from a year ago (648,900). In December 2007, there were 781,300.

Even with their labor reductions, the USPS reported August 5 that it had sustained a loss of $5.7 billion so far this year, with a $3.1 billion loss in the April through June period alone.

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.398 million jobs, an increase of 13,900 from a year ago (2.384 million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.691 million jobs, a decrease of 62,400 from a year ago (2.754 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.834 million jobs, a decrease of 114,800 from a year ago (7.949 million). In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.242 million jobs, a decrease of 95,600 from a year ago (6.337 million). In December 2007, there were 6.428 million.

Employment explained:

To restore employment to the 5.5% level, 5.52 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.

The government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 7% from its current 5.5% level.

To get to the 7% level, 3.21 million workers need jobs. 10.781 million workers will still be unemployed under the new standard.

The Civilian labor force has decreased in the past 12 months by 107,000.

Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries and local jobs.

Our recession history of unemployment:

Over the last 12 months, net 647,000 jobs were filled in the Civilian labor force, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

Where are the jobs?

It comes as no surprise that the occupations with the largest job growth in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.).

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 72,000 households from 754 sample areas across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey. This translates into about 110,000 individuals. All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,007 geographic sampling units, each totally within their state borders and 754 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States. For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods.

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.

Each month, during the week containing the 19th day, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members.

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 0.2 percent (30,000) of the 154.02 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification. This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be.

The basic concepts of employment are:

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results.

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force. They are counted separately.

Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment. He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs. Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8%.

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The president sent The Small Business Jobs and Wages Tax Cut to Congress on January 10, 2010 to try to stimulate more hiring. It focused on small businesses, because as the president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America.” The proposal included:

• Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.

• Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.

• Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.

• The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.

• There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

• There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

President Obama noted that this proposal would be worked into the various other proposals that have already advanced in Congress, such as The HIRING Act of 2010 and The Jobs for Main Street Bill of 2010.

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program (signed into law by President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008) cost much less than expected. Originally expected to exceed $300 billion, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), as of December 10, 2010 estimates the program will cost only $19 billion, freeing up more than $200 billion to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits.

Stimulus spending by state

Updated Oct 14, 2011;

$496,622,585,670has been awarded
$423,864,702,056 (85.35%) has been paid out to the states

Read: How the Stimulus Is Changing America

Recession histories:

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009.

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade.

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%. 

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II.  It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. 

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently. Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

Recession peaks 1974-2011:

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later. By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2007 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:

The last time Americans suffered through an unemployment peak of this magnitude was in 1982, that took roughly seven years to return to a “normal” rate.  But it was followed almost immediately by another upsurge which took another eight years to correct.  The total recovery time was nineteen years from the peak.  We can only hope that this recovery is shorter.  And it can be shorter if consumers focus on ‘made or grown in America.’ 

A closer look at unemployment for this recession only:

We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

The next Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: October 2011 released November 4, 2011

The last Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: August 2011