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U.S. Bureau of Labor statistics:

Employment Situation:

The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed.  This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring. 

–Current: 238.3 million; up 323,000 from last month; up 2.5 million since December 2009 (235.8 million). 

Employment is a moving target.  In a healthy economy, around 60% of those newly eligible look for employment, so about 125,000 jobs a month or 1.5 million new jobs per year must be filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable. 

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers (actively looking for work). 

–Current: 154.2 million; up 48,000 from last month; up 1.2 million since December 2009 (153.0). 

–Employed workers: 139.4 million; up 141,000 from last month; up 1.6 million since December 2009 (137.8).

–Unemployed workers: 14.8 million; down 93,000 from last month; down 500,000 since December 2007 (15.3).

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) remained consistent at 9.6 percent.

Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (not counting farm workers).

–Current: 130.2 million; down 95,000 jobs from last month; up 600,000 since December 2009 (129.6). 

Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 108.0 million; up 64,000 jobs from last month; up 900,000 since the end of December 2009 (107.1). 

Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment. 

–Current: 22.2 million; down 159,000 jobs from last month; down 300,000 since the end of December 2009 (22.5). 

Bottom line:  

Unemployment has stopped rising and is holding steady.  

The Civilian labor force has grown by 2.5 million (1.2 million nonfarm) in 2010, and employment is up by 1.6 million (900,000 nonfarm private). 

The weak recovery of the economy is causing businesses to conserve cash by holding back on hiring.  Employers who are unsure of next month’s sales of their goods and services are reluctant to hire additional employees. 

In addition to population increase, as consumer and business confidence and mood improve; more workers start to look for jobs again, returning to the workforce in anticipation of better employment conditions, who add to the work force and drive the unemployment rate higher. 

On the other side, workers drop from the work force for a number of reasons including losing confidence and giving up looking for work. 

Consumer Confidence Survey

For September, the Conference Board shows that the:

• Consumer Confidence Index^®  (short-term outlook) made a moderate decrease to 48.5 (1985=100).
• Present Situation Index (pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) decreased to 23.1 from last month’s 24.9 rating.
• Expectations Index (optimism about future conditions) decreased to 65.4 from last month’s 72.0 rating.

Household Survey Data

Nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 95,000 in September (as part of a decrease of 159,000 temporary Census workers [net +64,000]), decreased in August (-57,000 as part of a decrease of 114,000 temporary Census workers [net +57,000]); decreased in July (-66,000 as part of a decrease of 143,000 temporary Census workers [net +77,000]) and decreased in June (-175,000 as part of a decrease of 225,000 temporary Census workers [net +50,000]). 

May showed (+433,000 as part of an increase of 411,000 temporary Census workers [net +22,000]); April showed (+313,000), March (+208,000), February (+39,000), and January (+14,000).  

Census workers peaked in May at 564,000 workers. 

In future months, the unemployment numbers will be more accurate, rather than be skewed by the large number of temporary workers conducting the Census for the government

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has been improving over the last nine months with three-month averages at: July through September (net+66,000), April through June (+128,333) and January through March (+87,000). 

Between January 2007 and December 2009, nearly 7.0 million workers were displaced from jobs they had held for 3 years or more. By January 2010, 49 percent of them were reemployed, but not necessarily in the same industries they had worked before.  

Average weekly hours and overtime

The average workweek for all employees remained consistent at 34.2 hours. 

The average hourly and weekly earnings for production and non-supervisory employees in September increased slightly to $19.10 with weekly earnings at $639.85. 

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring. 

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 612 thousand to 9.34 million.  These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (+353 thousand) or found part-time jobs (+109 thousand). 

Over the past two months, the number of workers in this category has increased by 943,000.

The number of voluntary part-time workers decreased by 324 thousand.  

The number of persons marginally attached to the labor force was 2.55 million.  These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months.  They had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks and so were not considered part of the labor force. 

This number is up from 2.2 million a year earlier.

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workers was 1.2 million.  These are persons no longer looking for work.  The peak was 1.2 million, reached in February 2010.       

This number is up by 503,000 a year earlier.   

The average duration of unemployment fell to 33.3 weeks from 35.2 weeks in June 2010.  A year ago it was 26.5 weeks.  At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.5 weeks.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) decreased by 126 thousand to 6.12 million.  This is about 4 ½ times (down from 5 times) the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.3 million).   In 2009 alone, 3.5 million were added to that number.  Four in ten (41.7%) unemployed persons are in this category. 

The long-term unemployed number dropped by 640,000 workers since the May 2010 high of 6.8 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (26.0%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics.  The lowest unemployment started with Asians (6.4%), followed up by Adult women (8.0%), Whites then Adult men (9.8%). 

Establishment Survey Data

Construction lost 21,000 jobs in September.  Previous month changes were August (+31,000) reflecting 10,000 workers on strike in July who returned to work, July (-2,000), June (-21,000), May (-29,000), April (+22,000), March (+26,000), February (-64,000), and January (-77,000).

The quarterly average construction job data has been improving with three-month averages at: July through September (+2,667), April through June (-9,333) and January through March (-38,333). 

Currently, there are 5.6 million construction jobs, a decrease of 92,000 since the end of December 2009 (5.7 million). A year ago, there were 5.8 million.  In December 2007, there were 7.5 million.   

In housing, perhaps the weakest area of the economy, a report from the U.S. Census Bureau reported that 288,000 houses were sold nationally in August 2010, down 28.9% from a year ago. 

Manufacturing lost 6,000 jobs in September mostly in nondurable goods.  Previous month changes were August (-28,000), July (+32,000), June (+13,000), May (+39,000), April (+38,000), March (+17,000), February (+1,000), and January (+20,000).  

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: July through September (-667), April through June (+30,000) and January through March (+12,667). 

Currently, there are 11.7 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 136,000 since the end of December 2009 (11.5 million). A year ago, there were 11.6 million.  In December 2007, there were 13.7 million.  

A separate report showed manufacturing activity expanded last month at the fastest pace since May — the 15th straight month for growth. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index read 56.9 in October, up from 54.4 in September. A reading above 50 indicates growth.  A PMI in excess of 42 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. 

Retail trade gained 5,700 jobs in September.  Previous month changes were August (-2,000), July (+11,100), June (-20,500), May (-5,800), April (+14,400), March (+22,800), February (+7,100), and January (+49,100). 

The quarterly average retail job data has been improving over the last nine months with three-month averages at: July through September (+4,933), April through June (+14,766) and January through March (+26,333). 

Currently, there are 14.4 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 86,000 since the end of December 2009 when there were 14.36 million.  A year ago, there were 14.4 million.  In December 2007, there were 15.57 million.   

Professional Business Services gained 14,000 jobs in September.  Previous month changes were August (+28,000), July (-5,000), June (+33,000), May (+26,000), April (+70,000), March (+1,000), February (+56,000), and January (+23,000). 

Professional and business services consist of legal, accounting, management consulting, administrative and support services.  In hard times, they are the first to be trimmed.  In recovery, the jobs grow in these fields, as employers emerge from survival mode. 

The quarterly professional business services job data has been improving over the last nine months with three-month averages at: July through September (+12,333), April through June (+43,000) and January through March (+26,667). 

Currently, there are 16.7 million professional business services jobs, an increase of 246,000 since the end of December 2009 when there were 16.5 million. A year ago there were 16.3 million.  In December 2007, there were 18.1 million. 

This is one of the largest job growth fields.

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional Business Services) gained 16,900 jobs in September.  Previous month changes were August (+17,700), July (-6,700), June (+11,200), May (+30,400), April (+23,300), March (+32,300), February (+35,900), and January (+49,200). 

The quarterly temporary help services job data has been improving over the last nine months with three-month averages at: July through September (+9,300), April through June (+21,633) and January through March (+39,133). 

Currently, there are 2.1 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 217,600 since the end of December 2009 when there were 1.9 million.  A year ago, there were 1.7 million.  In December 2007, there were 2.6 million. 

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help. 

Educational Services lost 15,000 jobs in September.  Previous month changes were August (+400), July (-200), June (+7,500), May (+5,300), April (+3,100), March (+9,300), February (+9,700), and January (+4,200).   

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: July through September (-4,933), April through June (+5,300) and January through March (+7,733). 

Currently, there are 3.1 million educational services jobs, an increase of 23,000 since the end of December 2009 when there were 3.1 million.  A year ago, there were also 3.1 million.  In December 2007, there were 3.0 million. 

Health care and Social Assistance gained 32,000 jobs in September.  Previous month changes were August (+36,000), July (+28,000), June (+22,600), May (+18,800), April (+25,400), March (+39,200), February (+21,000), and January (+15,700).   

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has been improving strongly over the last nine months with three-month averages at: July through September (+32,000), April through June (+28,533) and January through March (+25,300). 

Currently, there are 16.5 million health care and social assistance jobs, an increase of 240,000 since the end of December 2009 when there were 16.24 million. A year ago, there were 16.1 million.  In December 2007, there were 15.6 million. 

This is one of the largest job growth fields.

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 159,000 jobs in September.  Previous month changes were August (-150,000), July (-183,000), June (-236,000), May (+381,000), April (+72,000), March (+50,000), February (-23,000), and January (-2,000).   

The Census began gearing up in March. Recent losses were mostly from temporary Census workers who finished their assignments. 

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been steady (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months with three-month averages at: July through September (-164,000), April through June (+72,333) and January through March (+8,300). 

Currently, there are 22.23 million jobs, a decrease of 250,000 jobs since the end of December 2009 when there were 22.48 million. A year ago, there were 22.48 million.  In December 2007, there were 22.38 million. 

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.2 million jobs, an increase of 35,000 jobs since the end of December 2009 when there were 2.16 million.  A year ago there were 2.1 million jobs.  In December 2007, there were 2.0 million.   

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 648,100 jobs, a decrease of 15,600 jobs since the end of December 2009 when there were 663,700.  A year ago, there were 690,500.  In December 2007, there were 781,300.   

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.386 million jobs, an increase of 25,600 since the end of December 2009 when there were 2.384 million.  A year ago, there were 2.365 million.  In December 2007, there were 2.327 million.   

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.75 million jobs, a decrease of 40,000 since the end of December 2009 when there were 2.79 million.  A year ago, there were 2.80 million.  In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.   

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.90 million jobs, a decrease of 136,000 since the end of December 2009 when there were 8.0 million. A year ago, there were 8.0 million.  In December 2007, there were 8.0 million.   

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.34 million jobs, a decrease of 93,000 since the end of December 2009 when there were 6.43 million. A year ago, there were 6.5 million.  In December 2007, there were 6.4 million. 

Employment explained

To restore employment to the 5.5% level of 2008, 6.3 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.   

The government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.

To restore employment to the 8% level, 2.4 million workers need jobs.  12.3 million workers will still be unemployed under the new standard.   

The Civilian labor force grows at the rate of 1.8 million new workers per year.  At 8%, 144,000 workers each year will be added to the unemployed, driving that number constantly higher.  Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries.

Looking at jobs needed to reduce unemployment
with the total Civilian labor force at the current level:

(r)=revised

Statistics are what they are.  If you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

From December 2009 through September 2010, 1.6 million jobs were filled.

Where are the jobs?

It comes as no surprise that the occupations with the largest job growth in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.). 

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.  

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education.  It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 60,000 households across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey.  This translates into about 110,000 individuals.  All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,025 geographic sampling units.  824 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States.  For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods. 

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out.  They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever. 

Each month, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members. 

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 290,000 of the 154.2 million workers in the Civilian labor force.  A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive. 

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification.  This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be. 

The basic concepts of employment are: 

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results. 

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force.  They are counted separately. 

Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment.   He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs.  Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8+%. 

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The president sent The Small Business Jobs and Wages Tax Cut to Congress on January 10, 2010 to try to stimulate more hiring.  It focused on small businesses, because as the president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America.”  The proposal included:

• Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
• Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
• Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.
• The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
• There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees. 
• There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

President Obama noted that this proposal would be worked into the various other proposals that have already advanced in Congress, such as The HIRING Act of 2010 and The Jobs for Main Street Bill of 2010. 

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program is costing less with fewer losses than expected, as much as $200 billion has been freed up to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits. 

**Stimulus spending by state 

As of October 15, 2010,
$464,001,891,311 has been awarded
$314,768,087,737 (67.8%) has been paid out to the states

Read: How the Stimulus Is Changing America

Recession histories:

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009. 

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade. 

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%. 

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II.  It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. 

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently.  Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

Recession peaks 1974-2010 

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later.  By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

 The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2008 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:
It is interesting to recognize that in most cases, unemployment peaks roughly one-third of the timeline for unemployment to return to its “normal” rate, so we can double the number of months from the Start to the Peak to expect to arrive at an approximate return to “normal.”

We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

The next Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: October 2010  released November 5, 2010

The last Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: August 2010