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Report from the U.S. Department of Labor statistics:

Employment:

The Unemployment rate remained the same in March at 9.7% after dropping from the high of 10.1% in October 2009. 

Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 162,000 in March after holding nearly level in February (-14,000 [revised]) and January (+14,000 [revised]).  This followed a big drop in December (-109,000 [revised]), and a boost to prepare for the holiday season in November (+64,000 [revised]).  Previous month changes were October (-224,000 [revised]), September (-225,000 [revised]), August (-211,000 [revised]), July (-344,000 [revised]), June (-504,000), and May (-347,000).  

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job layoff figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months.  The three-month averages of January through March 2010 (+54,000), October through December 2009 (-128,333), and July through September 2009 (-260,000). 

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, payroll employment has decreased by 8.4 million (4.5 million in 2009 alone).  This wiped out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade. 

The current rate is 9.7% and the number unemployed is at 15.0 million. 

Total unemployment currently stands at 15.0 million (9.7%) after peaking at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009. 

In a healthy economy, around 125,000 jobs a month must be added and filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.  This is the eighth consecutive month of unemployment holding steady within 0.3%.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased to 9.1 million in March.  Previous month part time figures were February (8.8 million), January (8.3 million), December (9.2 million), November (9.2 million), October (9.2 million), September (9.2 million), August (9.1 million), July (8.8 million) and June (9.0 million).  

These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less or were unable to find full-time jobs.  Since the start of the recession, the number of such workers has increased by 3.7 million, and has remained relatively constant since March 2009 (9.0 million). 

About 2.3 million workers are considered marginally attached to the labor force wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months.  They had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks and so were not considered part of the labor force. 

Among the marginally attached workers, discouraged workers (persons no longer looking for work) dropped to 1.0 million in March from a peak 1.2 million in February 2010, but up by 309,000 a year ago.   

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) stand at 6.5 million.  This is five times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.3 million).   In 2009 alone, 3.5 million were added to that number.  Four in ten (43.6%) unemployed persons are in this category. 

The average length of unemployment has risen to 31.2 weeks in March.  At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.5 weeks.

Ed.Note: The number unemployed (and the unemployment rate) includes only those who looked for work in the last 4 weeks, and changes as the Civilian labor force population varies. 

The number unemployed contrasted with the changes in payroll employment is accounted for by workers no longer looking for work and therefore dropping out of the Civilian labor force. 

As consumer and business confidence improves, more workers will start to look for jobs again, returning to the workforce in anticipation of better employment conditions, which drives the unemployment rate higher.  On the other side, workers drop from the work force for a number of reasons including giving up looking for work.

Industry sectors and historical data

Construction gained 15,000 jobs in March. Previous month changes were February (-64,000), January (-77,000), December (-32,000), November (-15,000), October (-67,000), September (-71,000), August (-64,000), July (-80,000), and June (-91,000), with a total loss of 1.3 million jobs since December 2007. 

The quarterly average construction job figures have been holding steady and slightly improving over the last 9 months with three-month averages at: January through March (-42,000), October through December 2009 (-38,000) and July through September 2009 (-71,667).  The construction industry has lost 272,000 jobs in the last 12 months, but gained 507,000 jobs in 2010.

Manufacturing gained 17,000 jobs in March.  Previous month changes were February (+1,000), January (+20,000), December (-23,000), November (-25,000), October (-57,000), September (-48,000), August (-57,000), July (-43,000), and June (-129,000), with a total loss of 1.1 million jobs since December 2007.   

The quarterly average manufacturing job figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months with three-month averages at: January through March (+12,667), October through December 2009 (-35,000) and July through September 2009 (-49,333).  The manufacturing industry has gained 14,000 jobs in the last 12 months, and gained 151,000 jobs in 2010.

Retail trade gained 15,000 jobs in March.  Previous month changes were February (+8,000), January (+42,000), December (-18,000), November (+9,000), October (-63,000), September (-43,000), August (-15,000), July (-53,500), and June (-24,400), with a total loss of 1.1 million jobs since December 2007. 

The quarterly average retail job figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months with three-month averages at: January through March (+21,667), October through December 2009 (-24,000) and July through September 2009 (-37,167).  The retail trade industry has lost 203,000 jobs in the last 12 months, but gained 23             ,000 jobs in 2010.

Professional Business Services gained 11,000 jobs in March.  Previous month changes were February (+51,000), January (+30,000), December (+20,000), November (+109,000), October (+11,000), September (-22,000), August (-34,000), July (-48,000), and June (-132,000), with a total gain of 982,000 jobs since December 2007. 

The quarterly professional business services job figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months with three-month averages at: January through March (+30,667), October through December 2009 (+46,667) and July through September 2009 (-34,667).  The professional business service industry gained 188,000 jobs in the last 12 months, and gained 299,000 jobs in 2010.

Education and Health Services gained 45,000 in March.  Previous month changes were February (+32,000), January (+16,000), December (+26,000), November (+31,000), October (+35,000), September (+26,000), August (+35,000), July (+21,000), and June (+28,000), with a total gain of 580,000 jobs since December 2007. 

The quarterly average education and health services job growth figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months with three-month averages at: January through March (+31,000), October through December 2009 (+30,667) and July through September 2009 (+27,333).  The education and health service industry gained 170,000 jobs in the last 12 months, but declined by 82,000 jobs in 2010. 

Government employment (federal, state and local) gained 39,000 jobs in March.  While state and local governments trimmed their employment, the federal government added 51,300 jobs, while trimming 3,500 jobs from the US Post Office. 

Of the jobs added by the federal government, 48,000 were temporary jobs for the U.S. Census..  Over the next two months, another 600,000 to 700,000 census jobs will be added, and last through mid-July.  

Previous month changes were February (-18,000), January (+7,000), December (-27,000), November (-11,000), October (+38,000), September (-39,000), August (+4,000), July (-47,000), and June (-52,000), with a total gain (all levels) of 430,000 jobs since December 2007.   

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state and local) job figures have been holding steady over the last 9 months with three-month averages at: January through March (+9,333), October through December 2009 (zero) and July through September 2009 (-27,333).  Government (all levels) gained 283,000 jobs in the last 12 months, but declined by 84,000 jobs in 2010. 

Temporary help services added 40,200 jobs in March, and 166,000 jobs in the last 12 months.

The good news from this data is that the job gains are increasing. 

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (26.1%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics.  The lowest unemployment started with Asians (7.5%) followed up by Adult women (8.0%), Whites then Adult men (10.0%). 

Average weekly hours and overtime

The average manufacturing workweek remained increased to 39.9 hours with overtime at 2.9 hours. 

The average manufacturing hourly earnings for production and non-supervisory employees in March dropped by $0.01 to $18.45.  12 months ago the hourly earnings were $18.14 (+1.7%).  

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.  

Civilian labor force

The total Civilian labor force remained relatively constant at 153.9 million (up 851,000 from 153,059,000 at the start of 2010).  This indicates a mood elevation for workers who now have hope that there is work.  In February 2010 there were a million fewer workers in the work force than in February 2009 (154.4 million).   These were generally workers who had given up looking for work. 

The Civilian labor force usually grows as a recession winds down and optimism about finding work grows. 

This is the reason the unemployment rate has remained constant for the last few months.

The employment population (the number of the country’s working-age population that is employed) is at 138.9 million, 1.9 million less than 12 months ago.  This number will grow as jobs are created and the unemployment rate recedes.

Comparing now with the final month of the last major downturn in November 1982, the total Civilian labor force then stood at 111.1 million.  In that month, there were 11.9 million people unemployed accounting for 10.8% of the available work force (average for the year was 10.6 million unemployed with the rate at 9.7%).  The average for 2009 was 9.3%, increasing from 7.7% in January to 10.1% in December.

Looking at jobs needed to reduce unemployment
with the total Civilian labor force at 153.9 million:

To restore employment to the 5.5% level of 2008, about 6.5 million people will have to regain their job or start new jobs.  It is a tall mountain to climb. 

Ed.Note:  Government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.  With the current Civilian labor force, that means that on a permanent basis there will be roughly 12.3 million people unemployed — more than 3.8 million more than at the “normal” level today. 

Fastest growing occupations and Occupations with the largest job growth

It comes as no surprise that the fastest growing occupations 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field. 

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, as well as teachers and construction and transportation jobs.

Education and salary of course go hand in hand.  

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 60,000 households across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey.  This translates into about 110,000 individuals.  All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,025 geographic sampling units.  824 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States.  For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods. 

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out.  They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever. 

Each month, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members. 

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 290,000 of the 153.9 million workers in the Civilian labor force.  A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive. 

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification.  This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be. 

The basic concepts of employment are: 

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results. 

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force.  They are counted separately. 

Their number has nearly doubled in the previous 12 months.

 Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment.   He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs.  Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8+%. 

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers released a report showing the plan would save or create 1.5 million jobs by the end of 2009 and 3.5 million by the end of 2010. 

A senior White House official stated that the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus plan will meet their previous estimates to save 3.5 million U.S. jobs by the end of 2010.  White House officials have been careful to point out that estimated jobs created and saved have merely slowed continued job losses.

The president has now sent a proposal to Congress to try to stimulate more hiring.  It includes:

• helping small businesses expand with new tax breaks for those small businesses that hire,
• increasing investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to avoid layoffs,
• adding rebate incentives, particularly for consumers, for energy efficiency and green energy.

The biggest focus will be on small businesses.  Most jobs are in the private sector, and most private sector employers are small businesses.  The president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America,”

The proposal includes:

• A short-term tax incentive for small businesses that hire in 2010
• A one-year elimination of the capital gains tax for new investments in small business stock
• Extension of the Recovery Act enhanced expensing provision that allows small businesses to immediately expense up to $250,000 of qualified investment.
• Extension of the Recovery Act tax incentives for depreciation of capital spending
• Increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program is costing less with fewer losses than expected, as much as $200 billion has been freed up to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits. 

Stimulus spending by state 

As of March 23, 2010, of the
$333,277,042,891 announced,
$355,017,758,018 (106.5%) has been made available
$205,129,561,722 (61.5%) has been paid out to the states

 Recession histories:

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%. 

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II.  It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. 

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently.  Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

 Recession peaks 1974-2010 

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later.  By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

 The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2008 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:
It is interesting to recognize that in most cases, unemployment peaks roughly one-third of the timeline for unemployment to return to its “normal” rate, so we can double the number of months from the Start to the Peak to expect to arrive at an approximate return to “normal.”We live in hope (again, past performance is no guarantee of the future).

The next Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: April 2010

The last Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: February 2010