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Report from the U.S. Department of Labor statistics:

Employment Situation:

Total nonfarm payroll employment declined by 131,000 workers in July, reflecting a decrease of 143,000 temporary employees in the Census 2010 segment as the project comes to an end. 

–Private sector employment +71,000 (+750,000 since the start of 2010). 

–The unemployment rate remained the same at 9.5 percent.

In future months, the unemployment numbers will be more accurate, rather than be skewed by the large number of temporary workers conducting the census for the government.  Depressing headlines shout that payroll employment decreased by 131,000 workers, when that number is less than the temporary government workers who finished their assignments this month, yielding a small net increase. 

In truth, unemployment has stopped rising and is holding steady for the third consecutive month as seen without the influence of the large scale hiring and termination of the Census staff.  

Employment status:

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers. 

–Current: 153.5 million; down 181,000 from last month; one year ago: 154.3 million. 

–Employed workers — current: 139.0 million; one year ago: 139.8 million.

–Unemployed workers — current: 14.6 million (9.5%); one year ago: 14.5 million (9.4%).

In between, the unemployment rate rose to 10% for the last three months of 2009.

The Civilian labor force has remained steady since the start of 2010 (153.2 million). 

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade. 

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009. 

In a healthy economy, around 125,000 jobs a month must be added and filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable. 

The government goal of 8 percent unemployment would mean 12.3 million looking for jobs along with 1.6 million college graduates recently joining the Civilian labor force. 

As consumer and business confidence improves, more workers start to look for jobs again, returning to the workforce in anticipation of better employment conditions, which drives the unemployment rate higher.  On the other side, workers drop from the work force for a number of reasons including giving up looking for work.

Household Survey Data

Nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 131,000 in July (reflecting a decrease of 143,000 temporary Census workers [net +71,000]) after a big decrease in June (-125,000 including a decrease of 225,000 temporary Census workers [net +83,000]), May (+433,000 [revised] including an increase of 411,000 temporary Census workers [net +22,000]), April (+313,000 [revised]) and March (+208,000 [revised]) and holding nearly level in February (+39,000 [revised]) and January (+14,000).  This followed a big drop in December (-109,000), and a boost to prepare for the holiday season in November (+64,000).  

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has been improving over the last nine months with three-month averages at: May through July 2010 (+59,000), February through April 2010 (+186,667), and November through January 2009 (-10,333). 

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was 8.5 million.  These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less or were unable to find full-time jobs.  Previous month part time figures have held relatively steady since March 2009 at 9 million.

The number of persons marginally attached to the labor force was 2.6 million.  These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months.  They had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks and so were not considered part of the labor force. 

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workers was 1.2 million.  These are persons no longer looking for work.  The peak was 1.2 million, reached in February 2010.         

The average duration of unemployment has fallen to 34.2 weeks.  A year ago it was 25.3 weeks.  At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.5 weeks.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) remained at 6.57 million.  This is more than five times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.3 million).   In 2009 alone, 3.5 million were added to that number.  Four in ten (45%) unemployed persons are in this category. 

Establishment Survey Data

Construction lost 11,000 jobs in July. Previous month changes were June (-21,000), May (-29,000 [revised]), April (+22,000 [revised]), March (+26,000 [revised]), February (-64,000), January (-77,000), December (-32,000) and November (-15,000).

The quarterly average construction job data has not been improving with three-month averages at: May through July 2010 (-20,333), February through April 2010 (-5,333) and November through January 2009 (-41,333). 

Currently, there are 5.57 million construction jobs. A year ago, there were 5.95 million.  In December 2007, there were 7.39 million.   

Manufacturing gained 36,000 jobs in July.  Previous month changes were June (+13,000), May (+39,000), April (+38,000), March (+17,000), February (+1,000), January (+20,000), December (-23,000) and November (-25,000).  

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has been improving steadily over the last nine months with three-month averages at: May through July 2010 (+29,333), February through April 2010 (+18,667) and November through January 2009 (-9,333). 

Currently, there are 11.72 million manufacturing jobs. A year ago, there were 11.74 million.  In December 2007, there were 13.73 million. 

Retail trade gained 6,700 jobs in July.  Previous month changes were June (-20,500 [revised]), May (-5,800 [revised]), April (+14,400), March (+22,800), February (+7,100), January (+49,100), December (-14,500) and November (+8,800). 

The quarterly average retail job data has been relatively steady over the last nine months with three-month averages at: May through July 2010 (-6,533), February through April 2010 (+14,767) and November through January 2009 (-14,467). 

Currently, there are 14.43 million retail trade jobs. A year ago, there were 14.49 million.  In December 2007, there were 15.566 million.   

Professional Business Services lost 13,000 jobs in July.  Previous month changes were June (+23,000 [revised]), May (+26,000), April (+70,000), March (+1,000), February (+56,000), January (+23,000), December (+22,000) and November (+106,000). 

The quarterly professional business services job data has been slowly improving over the last nine months with three-month averages at: May through July 2010 (+12,000), February through April 2010 (+42,333) and November through January 2009 (+50,333). 

Currently, there are 16.67 million professional business services jobs. A year ago there were 16.41 million.  In December 2007, there were 18.1 million.  This is one of the currently largest job growth fields.

Temporary help services lost 5,600 jobs in July, but gained 11,200 in June and gained 30,400 in May. 

Currently, there are 2.09 million temporary help services jobs.  A year ago, there were 1.75 million.  In December 2007, there were 2.6 million.     

Education and Health Services gained 30,000 jobs in June.  Previous month changes were June (+26,000), May (+25,000), April (+28,000), March (+45,000), February (+32,000), January (+16,000), December (+26,000) and November (+31,000).   

The quarterly average education and health services job data has been improving steadily over the last nine months with three-month averages at: May through July 2010 (+27,000), February through April 2010 (+35,000) and November through January 2009 (+24,333). 

Currently, there are 19.56 million education and health services jobs. A year ago, there were 19.19 million.  In December 2007, there were 18.6 million.  This is one of the currently largest job growth fields.

Government employment (federal, state and local) lost (net) 202,000 jobs in July.  Of the jobs ended by the federal government, 143,000 were temporary jobs for the U.S. Census.  The Census 2010 jobs lasted through mid-July. 

Previous month changes were June (net -252,000 [revised]), May (net+381,000), April (+72,000), March (+50,000), February (-23,000), January (-2,000), December (-26,000) and November (-11,000).   

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state and local) jobs have been steady over the last nine months with three-month averages at: May through July 2010 (-24,333), February through April 2010 (+33,000) and November through January 2009 (-13,000). 

All government (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 22.505 million jobs. A year ago, there were 22.516 million.  In December 2007, there were 22.377 million. 

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.37 million jobs. A year ago there were 2.11 million.  In December 2007, there were 1.974 million.   

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 648,600 jobs.  A year ago, there were 701,700.  In December 2007, there were 781,300.   

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.375 million jobs. A year ago, there were 2.352 million.  In December 2007, there were 2.327 million.   

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.758 million jobs. A year ago, there were 2.802 million.  In December 2007, there were 2.813 million.   

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.98 million jobs. A year ago, there were 8.049 million.  In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.   

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.374 million jobs. A year ago, there were 6.498 million.  In December 2007, there were 6.429 million. 

The good news from this data is that overall, the job market is steady.  Now let’s build. 

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (26.1%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics.  The lowest unemployment started with Adult women (7.9%), followed up by Asians (8.2%), Whites then Adult men (9.7%). 

Average weekly hours and overtime

The average workweek for all employees remained consistent at 34.2 hours. 

The average hourly and weekly earnings for production and non-supervisory employees in July held at $19.04 with weekly earnings at $637.84. 

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring. 

Civilian labor force

The total Civilian labor force rose to 153.5 million from the 153.2 million at the start of 2010.  This indicates a mood elevation for workers re-entering the work force who had given up looking for work and now have hope that there are jobs for them. 

The Civilian labor force usually grows as a recession winds down and optimism about finding work grows. 

The employment population (the number of the country’s working-age population that is employed) is at 139.0 million, up from the 138.3 million at the start of 2010.  This number will grow as jobs are created and the unemployment rate recedes.

Comparing the present with the final month of the last major downturn in November 1982, the total Civilian labor force then stood at 111.1 million.  In that month, there were 11.9 million people unemployed accounting for 10.8% of the available work force (average for the year was 10.6 million unemployed with the rate at 9.7%).  The average for 2009 was 9.3%, increasing from 7.7% in January to 10.1% in December.

Looking at jobs needed to reduce unemployment
with the total Civilian labor force at 153.5 million:

(r)=revised

To restore employment to the 5.5% level of 2008, 6.1 million people will have to regain their job or start new a job.   

Ed.Note:  Government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.  With the current Civilian labor force, that means that on a permanent basis there will be roughly 12.3 million people unemployed. 

Fastest growing occupations and Occupations with the largest job growth

It comes as no surprise that the fastest growing occupations in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.). 

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and compensation go hand in hand.  

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 60,000 households across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey.  This translates into about 110,000 individuals.  All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,025 geographic sampling units.  824 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States.  For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods. 

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out.  They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever. 

Each month, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members. 

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 290,000 of the 153.5 million workers in the Civilian labor force.  A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive. 

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification.  This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be. 

The basic concepts of employment are: 

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results. 

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force.  They are counted separately. 

Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment.   He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs.  Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8+%. 

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers released a report showing the plan would save or create 1.5 million jobs by the end of 2009 and 3.5 million by the end of 2010. 

A senior White House official stated that the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus plan will meet their previous estimates to save 3.5 million U.S. jobs by the end of 2010.  White House officials have been careful to point out that estimated jobs created and saved have merely slowed continued job losses.

The president sent The Small Business Jobs and Wages Tax Cut to Congress on January 10, 2010 to try to stimulate more hiring.  It focused on small businesses, because as the president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America.”  The proposal included:

• Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
• Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
• Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.
• The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
• There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees. 
• There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

President Obama noted that this proposal would be worked into the various other proposals that have already advanced in Congress, such as The HIRING Act of 2010 and The Jobs for Main Street Bill of 2010. 

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program is costing less with fewer losses than expected, as much as $200 billion has been freed up to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits. 

Stimulus spending by state 

As of July 27, 2010, of the
$344,095,493,732 announced,
$421,477,195,339 (122.5%) has been made available
$268,372,814,961 (78.0%) has been paid out to the states

Recession histories:

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%. 

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II.  It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. 

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently.  Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

Recession peaks 1974-2010 

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later.  By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

 The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2008 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:
It is interesting to recognize that in most cases, unemployment peaks roughly one-third of the timeline for unemployment to return to its “normal” rate, so we can double the number of months from the Start to the Peak to expect to arrive at an approximate return to “normal.”

We live in hope (again, past performance is no guarantee of the future).

The next Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: August 2010

The last Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: June 2010