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U.S. Bureau of Labor statistics:

Employment Situation:

*The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed.  This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring. 

–Current: 238.1 million; up 209,000 from last month; up 2.3 million since December 2009 (235.8 million). 

Employment is a moving target.  In a healthy economy, around 60% of those newly eligible look for employment, so about 125,000 jobs a month or 1.5 million new jobs per year must be filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable. 

*The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers (actively looking for work). 

–Current: 154.1 million; up 550,000 from last month; up 1.1 million since December 2009 (153.0). 

–Employed workers: 139.3 million; up 290,000 from last month; up 1.5 million since December 2009 (137.8).

–Unemployed workers: 14.9 million; up 261,000 from last month; down 407,000 since December 2007 (15.3).

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) remained consistent at 9.6 percent.

*Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (not counting farm workers).

–Current: 130.3 million; down 54,000 jobs from last month (reflects a decrease of 114,000 temporary employees in the Census 2010 segment as the project comes to an end); up 723,000 since December 2009 (129.6). 

*Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 107.9 million; up 67,000 jobs from last month; up 763,000 since the end of December 2009 (107.1).   

Unemployment has stopped rising and is holding steady for the third consecutive month as seen without the influence of the large scale hiring and termination of the Census taker staff.  

The weak recovery of the economy is causing businesses to conserve cash by holding back on hiring.  

*Bottom line: 

The Civilian labor force has grown by 1.1 million in 2010, and unemployment is down by 407,000. 

There are 1.45 million more people employed now than in December 2009. 

In addition to population increase, as consumer and business confidence and mood improve; more workers start to look for jobs again, returning to the workforce in anticipation of better employment conditions, who add to the work force and drive the unemployment rate higher. 

On the other side, workers drop from the work force for a number of reasons including losing confidence and giving up looking for work. 

Consumer Confidence Survey

For August, the Conference Board shows that the:

• Consumer Confidence Index^®  (short-term outlook) made a moderate increase to 53.5 (1985=100).
• Present Situation Index (pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) decreased to 24.9 from last month’s 26.4 rating.
• Expectations Index (optimism about future conditions) increased to 72.5 from last month’s 67.5 rating.

Household Survey Data

Nonfarm payroll employment decreased by 54,000 in August (as part of a decrease of 114,000 temporary Census workers [net +67,000]); following a similar decrease in July (-54,000 as part of a decrease of 143,000 temporary Census workers [net +71,000]) and a decrease in June (-175,000 as part of a decrease of 225,000 temporary Census workers [net +83,000]). 

May showed (+433,000 as part of an increase of 411,000 temporary Census workers [net +22,000]); April showed (+313,000), March (+208,000), February (+39,000), January (+14,000) and December (-109,000).  

After peaking in May at 564,000 workers, only 82,000 Census staff remain employed. 

In future months, the unemployment numbers will be more accurate, rather than be skewed by the large number of temporary workers conducting the Census for the government

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has been improving over the last nine months with three-month averages at: June through August (+73,667), March through May (+181,000), and December 2009 through February 2010 (-18,667). 

Between January 2007 and December 2009, nearly 7.0 million workers were displaced from jobs they had held for 3 years or more. By January 2010, 49 percent of them were reemployed, but not necessarily in the same industries they had worked before.  

Average weekly hours and overtime

The average workweek for all employees remained consistent at 34.2 hours. 

The average hourly and weekly earnings for production and non-supervisory employees in August increased slightly to $19.08 with weekly earnings at $639.18. 

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring. 

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was 8.86 million.  These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less or were unable to find full-time jobs.  Previous month part time figures have held relatively steady since March 2009 around 9 million.

The number of persons marginally attached to the labor force was 2.37 million.  These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months.  They had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks and so were not considered part of the labor force. 

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workers was 1.1 million.  These are persons no longer looking for work.  The peak was 1.2 million, reached in February 2010.         

The average duration of unemployment has fallen to 33.6 weeks from 34.2 weeks.  A year ago it was 33.0 weeks.  At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.5 weeks.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) decreased by 323 thousand to 6.25 million.  This is about five times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.3 million).   In 2009 alone, 3.5 million were added to that number.  Four in ten (42%) unemployed persons are in this category. 

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (26.3%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics.  The lowest unemployment started with Asians (7.2%), followed up by Adult women (8.0%), Whites then Adult men (9.8%). 

Establishment Survey Data

Construction gained 19,000 jobs in August, reflecting 10,000 workers on strike in July who returned to work.  Previous month changes were July (-11,000), June (-21,000), May (-29,000), April (+22,000), March (+26,000), February (-64,000), January (-77,000) and December (-32,000).

The quarterly average construction job data has not been improving with three-month averages at: June through August (-4,333), March through May (+6,333) and December 2009 through February 2010 (-57,667). 

Currently, there are 5.6 million construction jobs. A year ago, there were 5.9 million.  In December 2007, there were 7.5 million jobs.   

In housing, perhaps the weakest area of the economy, a report from the National Association of Realtors reported that number of people who went to contract to buy homes increased in July. 

Manufacturing lost 27,000 jobs in August mostly in motor vehicles and parts.  Previous month changes were July (+36,000), June (+13,000), May (+39,000), April (+38,000), March (+17,000), February (+1,000), January (+20,000) and December (-23,000).  

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has been improving steadily over the last nine months with three-month averages at: June through August (+7,333), March through May (+31,333) and December 2009 through February 2010 (-667). 

Currently, there are 11.7 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 145,000 since the end of December 2009 when there were 11.5 million. A year ago, there were also 11.7 million jobs.  In December 2007, there were 13.7 million.  

Manufacturing productivity grew 4.1 percent in the second quarter of 2010, as output rose 8.4 percent and hours worked increased 4.1 percent. Total manufacturing productivity increased 7.5 percent over the last four quarters.

Retail trade lost 5,000 jobs in August.  Previous month changes were July (+6,700), June (-20,500), May (-5,800), April (+14,400), March (+22,800), February (+7,100), January (+49,100) and December (-14,500). 

Retailers reported surprisingly strong sales in August compared to a year ago. The International Council of Shopping Centers’ index of 31 major retailers was up 3.2 percent in August, following a 2.8 percent gain in July.

The quarterly average retail job data has been relatively steady over the last nine months with three-month averages at: June through August (-6,267), March through May (+10,467) and December 2009 through February 2010 (+13,900). 

Currently, there are 14.4 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 74,000 since the end of December 2009 when there were also 14.4 million.  A year ago, there were 14.5 million jobs.  In December 2007, there were 15.6 million.   

Professional Business Services gained 20,000 jobs in August.  Previous month changes were July (-13,000), June (+23,000), May (+26,000), April (+70,000), March (+1,000), February (+56,000), January (+23,000) and December (+22,000). 

Professional and business services consist of legal, accounting, management consulting, administrative and support services.  In hard times, they are the first to be trimmed.  In recovery, the jobs grow in these fields, as employers emerge from survival mode. 

The quarterly professional business services job data has been improving over the last nine months with three-month averages at: June through August (+10,000), March through May (+32,333) and December 2009 through February 2010 (+33,667). 

Currently, there are 16.7 million professional business services jobs, an increase of 226,000 since the end of December 2009 when there were 16.5 million. A year ago there were 16.4 million jobs.  In December 2007, there were 18.1 million. 

This is one of the largest job growth fields.

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional Business Services) gained 17,000 jobs in August.  Previous month changes were July (-5,600), June (+11,200), May (+30,400), April (+23,300), March (+32,300), February (+35,900), January (+49,200), and December (+49,700). 

The quarterly temporary help services job data has been solidly improving over the last nine months with three-month averages at: June through August (+7,533), March through May (+28,667) and December 2009 through February 2010 (+44,933). 

Currently, there are 2.1 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 206,000 since the end of December 2009 when there were 1.9 million.  A year ago, there were 1.7 million jobs.  In December 2007, there were 2.6 million. 

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help. 

Educational Services gained 5,000 jobs in August.  Previous month changes were July (+5,000), June (+7,500), May (+5,300), April (+3,100), March (+9,300), February (+9,700), January (+4,200) and December (+14,600).   

The quarterly average educational services job data has been improving steadily over the last nine months with three-month averages at: June through August (+5,833), March through May (+5,900) and December 2009 through February 2010 (+9,500). 

Currently, there are 3.2 million educational services jobs, an increase of 49,000 since the end of December 2009 when there were 3.1 million.  A year ago, there were also 3.1 million jobs.  In December 2007, there were 3.0 million, an increase of 179,000 jobs. 

This is one of the largest job growth fields.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 40,200 jobs in August.  Previous month changes were July (+29,600), June (+22,600), May (+18,800), April (+25,400), March (+39,200), February (+21,000), January (+15,700) and December (+21,800).   

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has been improving strongly over the last nine months with three-month averages at: June through August (+30,800), March through May (+27,800) and December 2009 through February 2010 (+19,500). 

Currently, there are 16.5 million health care and social assistance jobs, an increase of 212,500 since the end of December 2009 when there were 3.1 million. A year ago, there were 16.1 million jobs.  In December 2007, there were 15.6 million. 

This is one of the largest job growth fields.

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 121,000 jobs in August, reflecting 114,000 Census workers who finished their assignment (82,000 remain).  Previous month changes were July (-161,000), June (-236,000), May (+381,000), April (+72,000), March (+50,000), February (-23,000), January (-2,000) and December (-26,000).   

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been steady (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months with three-month averages at: June through August (-172,667), March through May (+167,667) and December 2009 through February 2010 (-17,000). 

Currently, there are 22.44 million jobs, a decrease of 40,000 jobs since the end of December 2009 when there were 22.48 million. A year ago, there were 22.5 million jobs.  In December 2007, there were 22.4 million. 

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.3 million jobs, an increase of 148,000 jobs since the end of December 2009 when there were 2.2 million.  A year ago there were 2.1 million jobs.  In December 2007, there were 2.0 million. 

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 650,300 jobs, a decrease of 134,000 jobs since the end of December 2009 when there were 663,700.  A year ago, there were 694,400 jobs.  In December 2007, there were 781,300.   

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.41 million jobs, an increase of 25,600 jobs since the end of December 2009 when there were 2.38 million.  A year ago, there were 2.37 million jobs.  In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.   

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.75 million jobs, a decrease of 44,000 jobs since the end of December 2009 when there were 2.79 million.  A year ago, there were 2.80 million jobs.  In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.   

Local governments education: Currently, there are 8.0 million jobs, a decrease of 62,500 jobs since the end of December 2009 when there also were 8.0 million. A year ago, there were 8.0 million jobs.  In December 2007, there were 8.0 million.   

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.4 million jobs, a decrease of 54,700 jobs since the end of December 2009 when there also were 6.4 million. A year ago, there were 6.5 million jobs.  In December 2007, there were 6.4 million. 

*Employment explained

To restore employment to the 5.5% level of 2008, 6.4 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.   This is why government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level, where 12.3 million workers unemployed will be the new standard.   

Looking at jobs needed to reduce unemployment
with the total Civilian labor force at the current level:

(r)=revised

The Civilian labor force grows at the rate of 1.8 million new workers per year.  At 8%, 144,000 workers each year will be added to the unemployed, driving that number constantly higher. 

Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries. 

Statistics are what they are.  If you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

*Where are the jobs?

It comes as no surprise that the occupations with the largest job growth in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.). 

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.  

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education.  It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed). 

From December 2009 through August 2010, 1.458 million jobs were filled.

*Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 60,000 households across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey.  This translates into about 110,000 individuals.  All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,025 geographic sampling units.  824 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States.  For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods. 

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out.  They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever. 

Each month, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members. 

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 290,000 of the 154.1 million workers in the Civilian labor force.  A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive. 

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification.  This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be. 

The basic concepts of employment are: 

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results. 

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force.  They are counted separately. 

*Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment.   He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs.  Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8+%. 

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The president sent The Small Business Jobs and Wages Tax Cut to Congress on January 10, 2010 to try to stimulate more hiring.  It focused on small businesses, because as the president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America.”  The proposal included:

• Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
• Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
• Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.
• The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
• There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees. 
• There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

President Obama noted that this proposal would be worked into the various other proposals that have already advanced in Congress, such as The HIRING Act of 2010 and The Jobs for Main Street Bill of 2010. 

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program is costing less with fewer losses than expected, as much as $200 billion has been freed up to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits. 

Stimulus spending by state 

As of September 1, 2010, of the
$346,676,757,922 announced,
$433,812,082,174 (125.1%) has been made available
$289,460,541,484 (83.5%) has been paid out to the states

Read: How the Stimulus Is Changing America

Recession histories:

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009. 

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade. 

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%. 

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II.  It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. 

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently.  Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

Recession peaks 1974-2010 

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later.  By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

 The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2008 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:
It is interesting to recognize that in most cases, unemployment peaks roughly one-third of the timeline for unemployment to return to its “normal” rate, so we can double the number of months from the Start to the Peak to expect to arrive at an approximate return to “normal.”

We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

The next Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: September 2010

The last Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: July 2010