More than half of all Republicans in the House and nearly half in the Senate happily took credit in their home districts for the stimulus money they voted against.

As of the end of August 2010, $289.4 billon has been paid out to the states.  Many Americans think that at least half the money has been wasted.  Economists have a higher opinion, but no one thinks it is a home run. 

The big concern of Americans is the high unemployment numbers.  We seem stuck in the 9.5% range, but what people don’t realize is that every year, 1.8 million new workers enter the Civilian work force, and just filling these jobs leaves the unemployment rate stuck.  

Many agree the stimulus bill has created jobs.  Economists say it has generated salaries for as many as 2 million workers who would have been out of work without the stimulus, and the government on Recovery.gov points to nearly 750,000 jobs funded by the bill. 

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office calculated that the stimulus package saved or created between 900,000 and 2.3 million jobs.

Although the Republicans point to tremendous job losses, it would have been 2 million jobs worse without the stimulus that they voted against as a bloc.

These paychecks, in addition to unemployment benefit extensions and tax cuts have all done their part to advance the economy.  But with only about 35% of the stimulus money spent, it is difficult to say whether it will work or not.

Before the stimulus bill was passed, unemployment insurance was cut off at 26 weeks.  After that time, unemployed workers were dropped from the Civilian labor force unless they had looked for work in the previous 4 weeks.  If they said they had looked for work in the last 12 months, they were considered marginally attached to the labor force.  As of the end of August 2010, there were 2.37 million workers in that category.  Within the marginally attached workers, were 1.1 million discouraged workers, who are no longer looking for work.   

The stimulus bill extends unemployment benefits to 33 weeks, and raised the government payment by $25 per worker per week.  Under the stimulus bill, the government also provides 65% of health insurance cost for the workers for up to 9 months after separation.  This provides much of the employer cost portion that ceased when their jobs were terminated. 

Economists have long expressed that unemployment benefits are a core motivation for economic stimulus by giving people some small discretionary income.  One of the possible side effects is that the financial “cushion” encourages workers to spend their efforts to find an “ideal” job rather than the first one that comes their way. 

In another job-saving effort, stimulus money has been sent directly to states and local governments to help them balance their budgets and avoid mass layoffs of teachers, police officers and firefighters, since states are restricted from deficit budgets. 

Instead of deficits, states and local governments raise cash through the sale of municipal bonds.  During the recent financial crisis, the bond market froze, forcing the municipal issuers to face big budget cuts and cancel programs.  Under the Build America Bonds program, the federal government subsidizes bond payments made to investors, raising the yield to very attractive rates, stimulating the economy and lowering the municipality’s borrowing costs. 

Close to half of the stimulus funded jobs are those that keep states and local governments running.  Those salaries provide money that families can spend into the economy.  

To encourage home sales in an economic sector that was at the heart of the financial meltdown, first-time homebuyers were offered an $8,000 tax credit until the end of November 2009. 

Although home sales rose during much of 2009, as soon as the tax credit expired, home sales plummeted.  The analysis was that people who would have purchased a home anyway moved up their purchase date to take advantage of the tax credit.

There are huge numbers of programs being funded simultaneously in the stimulus bill.  Many of the programs are slow to mature and show benefits.  These are investments in the country’s future rather than a stimulus. 

The stimulus bill provided $100 million for improving and repairing infrastructure items like roads and bridges sorely needing those repairs.  It would also put people to work.  This was the image of the stimulus presented to Americans, and it stuck.  It was, however, a proverbial “drop in the bucket.” 

Although money was allocated for “shovel ready” building projects, there weren’t that many projects ready to go, and a lot of the money has not yet been spent.  The reason?  States are planning and proceeding carefully, trying to get the best value for the money they receive. 

On Labor Day 2010, the president proposed allocating $50 billion to repair 150,000 miles of roads, 4,000 miles of rail lines, and 150 miles of airport runways.  These are expected to create jobs immediately as well as invest in easier transportation of goods and people for the future.  Congressional approval is needed.

The president also intends to urge Congress to permanently extend a research and development tax credit that expired in 2009, and allow companies to write off all of their investments in plants and equipment through the end of 2011. 

Other investments already in the stimulus bill are $40 billion for upgrading the nation’s energy grid.  That should come in handy as solar activity peaks in the next five years and can potentially burn out electrical grids and satellites.  This program will provide many jobs but is still in the early planning stages. 

Another investment drive is green technology, meant to minimize our dependence on foreign oil and minimize potential threats from the Middle East.  The problem is that green technology is still in its infancy; it will provide jobs, but maybe for our children.  It is an investment, not a stimulus. 

With the midterm elections coming up on November 2, and historical evidence that impatient voters will try something new and vote out the “ins”, the president and his council are scrambling for something that will get the notice of American voters.  It is not enough that this president has passed massive reform legislation that will alter the future of this country and its citizens for the better.  When American voters get in that booth, they ask, “What have you done for me lately?”  If nothing comes to mind, they’ll vote for promises. 

The $850 billion will do a lot of good rebuilding America’s future, but the voters need jobs today, and jobs in sufficient quantities are not in view.  The problem is that many stimulus benefits are far into the future. 

Dinner for the family is needed tonight. 

Employer tax breaks follow the “trickle-down” economic theory that says tax breaks given to employers will allow them to save enough money to hire more people who in turn will spend their income on retail goods that will improve the economy and lead to more jobs.  It does not work in a wealth-driven society like ours, but instead causes an ever-larger wealth gap between the “haves” and the “have-n0ts”.  

Tax breaks fall on deaf ears, when an employer is worried whether his goods will sell today and provide a tomorrow for his company and his family.  He will conserve his cash and restrict production in case of a downturn, and therefore unintentionally causing a downturn.  The cash stays with the employer and improves his profit.

The opposite of trickle-down economics is the “trickle-up effect.”  This approach give the tax breaks to the people.  They have more money left over from supplying their basic needs and with their disposable income they stimulate retail trade by buying goods that will improve the economy and lead to more jobs.  

The key to recovery is stimulating retail.  The only way to do it is to put more cash in the wallets of consumers.  An economy runs on cash circulation; as with people, stop the circulation and the patient dies.  

The modification of the Bush tax breaks proposed by the president is a step in the right direction.  By continuing the tax breaks for those earning less than $250,000, it will not cut off their disposable income. 

What the country also needs is an employment incentive; the opportunity for the unemployed to perform work and feel accomplished. 

There is still a lot of money to be spent and a lot of people unemployed.

What if unemployed workers were offered the education they needed to work at a trade, or get their high school diploma?  It is a fact that unemployment is twice as high for those without a high school education.  It is a fact that graduates in fast growing fields like health care and technology are hired much faster than those unskilled. 

What if unemployed workers were encouraged to volunteer as part of their workweek?  People generally don’t like to be charity recipients.  We live in a fair trade society – when we receive something, we have been taught to feel we should give something in return. 

What if?

President Franklin Roosevelt in 1935 had the right idea, employing thousands in public service under the Public Works of Art Project (PWAP), Federal One and others. 

Writers, artists, musicians and other unemployed workers wrote, painted and performed for the depressed public and were paid.  They brought the country’s records up to date by recording and cataloging historical information; they worked on building projects; they repaired bridges and roads; they painted murals in public buildings.  If they had a skill, they used it and taught it to others; if they had no skill, they used their muscles.   The PWAP program failed because of mandated “guidance” from Washington D.C. and the unemployment problem was solved with the outbreak of WWII, but the idea is still compelling. 

There are many opportunities to volunteer in our own backyards.  Every town has Habitat for humanity, food pantries, libraries and other organizations always looking for help.  The requirements are generally simple; just show up and work “friendly.”  It also looks good on a resume. 

What if we suggest a scenario and make an assumption that many business owners need the help, but don’t have the money to hire new employees.  What if they put out a call to the local unemployment office describing their needs? 

What if the issue of salary and benefits never came up – they would be provided by the state unemployment agency.  Perhaps during their “unemployment” employment, the worker would learn a new skill, something of value to put on their resume.  Perhaps their “unemployment” employer would see the value of hiring that person, or provide a glowing reference to their next interview. 

What if?

The purpose of the CARD Act is to ensure that borrowers with a poor credit score and a history of late payments get treated as fairly as borrowers who have kept their credit record clean. 

Claims by credit card issuers that changes would lead to higher rates has been fulfilled.  Many issuers raised their interest rates and fees since the President signed the CARD Act on May 22, 2009.

In desperate attempts to take advantage of their customers before the new laws kicked in, credit issuers raised minimum payments and lowered credit limits for customers with bad credit, and closed accounts of customers who do not use their cards often and good payers who pay their entire balance each month.

The act does not limit how high interest rates can go and does not apply to business or corporate credit cards.

The Act was passed to beat several consumer-unfriendly practices, including:

• prohibiting credit issuers from arbitrarily changing the terms of their contract with a cardholder, the practice of “any-time, any-reason repricing.”
• requiring a customer option of a fixed credit limit, and preventing the credit issuer from charging over-the-limit fees.
• requiring 45 days notice before raising a customer’s interest rate.  The customer has three billing cycles to decline the new terms and pay off their balance at the old rate and payment schedule. 
• prohibiting rate increases on existing balances for fixed rate accounts or for universal default, which is a late payment on an unrelated account. 
• requiring the credit issuer to return customer to their previous interest rate after six consecutive months of timely payments.
• requiring a minimum of 21 days from the date the bill is sent out to the due date (increased from 14 days).
• requiring monthly due dates to be the same each month or next business day if a weekend or holiday. 
• requiring payments to be accepted as timely when paid before 5pm EST on the due date or mailed at least 7 days before the due date. 
• prohibiting the charging of additional fees for payment methods including online, mail, electronic transfer, or telephone.  The exception is an expedited payment to avoid a late fee. 
• requiring payments to be applied to the highest-rate debt on the account. 
• prohibiting the charging of interest for payments made during a grace period.
• requiring credit card statements to contain a schedule of time required and interest paid to pay off balance with minimum payments, and how much the payment must be to pay the balance off in three years. 
• requiring the customer agree to either a hard credit limit, or approval with an over-the-limit fee applied and limits the number of over-the-limit fees to three.
• requiring the up-front payment of all fees, before issuing of subprime cards, where fees will exceed 25 percent of the credit limit.

The CARD Act also prohibits issuance of credit cards to minors under the age of 21 without a co-signer unless they can prove they are able to repay.  This will stop the issuing of cards to minors where parents are responsible for their debts until age 21. 

Although the idea was to treat poor payers as fairly as good payers, the Act causes credit issuers to treat all borrowers the same.  Credit issuers say they have no way of knowing who will lose their job, get sick or other financial situation that will cause payment default, so they will treat everyone the same.  They believe the past does not guarantee the future.

Credit issuers are continuing their research into ways they can apply fees that are not covered in the CARD Act.  Fixed-rate cards could be switched to variable rates that give the issuer more flexibility.  Card issuers may increase transaction fees to retailers, causing them to stop accepting those cards or raise prices.

Congress is working on more transparency and oversight of the credit issuers, requiring reports on company profits, fees and rates that will be presented to Congress each year. 

Banks are now focusing on increasing profits from debit cards, since credit has now been limited.  The best course is to use cash when possible and ask for a discount equal to the Merchant fee.

Employment:

The Unemployment rate fell in January to 9.7% from 10.0% in December.   

Nonfarm payroll employment held nearly level (-20,000) in January after a big drop in December (-150,000 [revised]), and a boost to prepare for the holiday season in November (+64,000 [revised]).  The December drop could substantially be the result of seasonal employees let go by retailers.  Previous month changes were October (-224,000 [revised]) , September (-225,000 [revised]), August (-211,000 [revised]), July (-344,000 [revised]), June (-504,000), and May (-347,000).  

The monthly average nonfarm payroll job layoff figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months of January through November (-35,333), October through August (-220,000), and July through May (-398,333). 

In 2009, payroll employment declined by 4.5 million. Over the course of the year, job losses moderated considerably. In the first quarter of 2009, job declines averaged 752,667 per month, compared with 103,000 per month in the last quarter. 

Since the start of the recession in December 2007, payroll employment has decreased by 8.4 million, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade. 

Total unemployment dropped to 14.8 million (9.7%) after rising to 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009. 

The numbers still indicate that companies are approaching their maximum “leanness” and sustain perceptions that the economy is approaching employment turnaround.

Unemployment is still the highest since April 1983.  In a healthy economy, around 125,000 jobs a month must be added and filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The current rate is 9.7% and the number unemployed is at 14.8 million. 

This is the third consecutive month of unemployment holding steady.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) fell to 8.3 million in January from 9.2 million in December.  Previous month part time figures were November (9.2 million), October (9.3 million), September (9.2 million), August (9.1 million), July (8.8 million) and June (9.0 million).  

These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less or were unable to find full-time jobs.  Since the start of the recession, the number of such workers has increased by 3.7 million, and has remained relatively constant since March 2009. 

January 2010 is the first month this number has declined (-849,000). 

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) have tripled since the start of the recession to 6.3 million since December 2007, adding 3.6 million to that number since January 2009.  Four in ten (41.2%) unemployed persons are in this category. 

The average length of unemployment has risen to more than 30 weeks, the longest on record since 1948.

Discouraged workers (persons no longer looking for work) rose to 1.1 million in January, up from 929,000 in December, 861,000 in November and 734,000 a year ago.  

This is the first month that number has exceeded 1 million.

Ed.Note: The number unemployed (and the unemployment rate) includes only those who looked for work in the last 4 weeks, and changes as the Civilian labor force population varies. 

The number unemployed contrasted with the changes in payroll employment is accounted for by workers no longer looking for work and therefore dropping out of the Civilian labor force. 

As consumer and business confidence improves, more workers will start to look for jobs again, returning to the workforce in anticipation of better employment conditions, which drives the unemployment rate higher.  On the other side, workers drop from the work force for a number of reasons including giving up looking for work.

Industry sectors and historical data

Construction lost 75,000 jobs in January, perhaps due to inclement weather and low temperatures.  Previous month changes were December (-32,000), November (-15,000), October (-67,000), September (-71,000), August (-64,000), July (-80,000), June (-91,000), and May (-59,000), with a total of 1.9 million since December 2007. 

The monthly average construction job layoff figures have been improving steadily, over the last 9 months of January through November (-40,667), October through August (-67,333) and July through May (-76,667). 

Manufacturing gained 11,000 jobs in January.  Previous month changes were December (-23,000), November (-25,000), October (-57,000), September (-48,000), August (-57,000), July (-43,000), June (-129,000), and May (-152,000) with a widespread job loss total of 2.1 million since December 2007, mostly in the durable goods industry. 

The monthly average manufacturing job layoff figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months of January through November (-12,333), October through August (-54,000) and July through May (-108,000). 

Retail trade gained 42,000 jobs in January.  Previous month changes were December (-18,000), November (+9,000), October (-63,000), September (-43,000), August (-15,000), July (-53,500), June (-24,400), and May (-22,000). 

The monthly average retail job figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months of January through November (+11,000), October through August (-40,333) and July through May (-33,300). 

Professional Business Services gained 44,000 jobs in January.  Previous month changes were December (+20,000), November (+109,000), October (+11,000), September (-22,000), August (-34,000), July (-48,000), June (-132,000), and May (-51,000). 

The monthly average retail job figures have been improving steadily over the last 9 months of January through November (+57,667), October through August (-15,000) and July through May (-77,000). 

Education and Health Services gained 16,000 jobs in January.  Previous month changes were December (+26,000), November (+31,000), October (+35,000), September (+26,000), August (+35,000), July (+21,000), June (+28,000), and May (+38,000). 

The monthly average education and health services job growth figures have been steady over the last 9 months of January through November (+24,333), October through August (+32,000) and July through May (+29,000). 

In a nonstop record of job growth, the health care industry has added 322,000 jobs in 2009.

Government employment (federal, state and local) lost 8,000 jobs in January.  Previous month changes were December (-27,000), November (-11,000), October (+38,000), September (-39,000), August (+4,000), July (-47,000), June (-52,000), and May (-13,000). 

The monthly average government employment (federal, state and local) job figures have been steady over the last 9 months of January through November (-10,000), October through August (+1,000) and July through May (-37,333). 

The federal government added 33,000 jobs in January including 9,000 temporary jobs for the 2010 Census and 14,000 jobs for the USPS, offsetting the 19,000 jobs the USPS downsized in December.  Except for education, state (-13,000) and local governments (-12,000) trended down.

Temporary help services added 52,000 jobs in January, adding to the 58,500 jobs in December, a net gain of 247,000 jobs since September 2009.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (26.4%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics.  The lowest unemployment started with Adult women (7.9%) followed up by Asians (8.4%), Whites then Adult men (10.0%). 

The good news from this data is that the job losses are lessening.  It is perhaps due to fewer jobs available to lose, but the lower figures are an encouraging sign. 

Average weekly hours and overtime

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring. 

The average manufacturing workweek remained unchanged at 39.9 hours with overtime at 2.8 hours. 

The average manufacturing hourly earnings remained steady at $23.19 for January.  Over the past 12 months average hourly earnings have risen 1.8%.  

Civilian labor force

The total Civilian labor force remained constant at 153.1 million (down 661,000 from November).  There are a million fewer workers in the work force than in January 2009 (154.1 million).   These are generally workers who have given up looking for work. 

The Civilian labor force usually grows as a recession winds down and optimism about finding work grows.  But as long as Americans remain anxious about their jobs, consumer spending is not expected to grow enough to power an economic rebound. 

The employment population ratio (the proportion of the country’s working-age population that is employed), at 58.4 percent, has declined by 4.3 percent since the recession began in December 2007.

Comparing now with the final month of the last major downturn in November 1982, the total Civilian labor force then stood at 111.1 million.  In that month, there were 11.9 million people unemployed accounting for 10.8% of the available work force (average for the year was 10.6 million unemployed with the rate at 9.7%). 

Looking at jobs needed to reduce unemployment
with the total Civilian labor force at 153.1 million:

(r)=revised

*To restore employment to the 5.5% level of 2008, about 6.4 million people will have to regain their job or start new jobs.  It is a tall mountain to climb. 

*Ed.Note:  Government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.  With the current Civilian labor force, that means that on a permanent basis there will be roughly 12.2 million people unemployed — more than 5.8 million more than at the “normal” level today. 

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 60,000 households across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey.  This translates into about 110,000 individuals.  All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,025 geographic sampling units.  824 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States.  For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods. 

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out.  They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever. 

Each month, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members. 

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 290,000 of the 153 million people in the Civilian labor force.  A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive. 

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification.  This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be. 

The basic concepts of employment are: 

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results. 

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force.  They are counted separately. 

Their number has nearly doubled in the previous 12 months.

 Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment.   He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs.  Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8+%. 

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The White House Council of Economic Advisers released a report showing the plan would save or create 1.5 million jobs by the end of 2009 and 3.5 million by the end of 2010. 

A senior White House official stated that the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus plan will meet their previous estimates to save 3.5 million U.S. jobs by the end of 2010, but the unemployment rate at that time may be higher due to further deterioration in the economy.  White House officials have been careful to point out that estimated jobs created and saved have merely slowed continued job losses.

The president is now drafting a proposal to try to stimulate more hiring.  Obama plans to send Congress a list of ideas, including new tax breaks for small businesses that hire, some new spending on roads, bridges and other construction and grants to state and local governments to avoid layoffs.  Congress is likely to take up a job-creation package in the New Year.

Stimulus spending by state 

As of January 26, 2010, of the
$329,766,478,709 announced,
$332,170,100,278 (100.7%) has been made available
$175,973,271,008 (53.4%) has been paid out to the states

 Recession histories:

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%. 

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II.  It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. 

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently.  Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

 Recession peaks 1974-2009 

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later.  By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

 The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2008 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:
It is interesting to recognize that in most cases, unemployment peaks roughly one-third of the timeline for unemployment to return to its “normal” rate, so we can double the number of months from the Start to the Peak to expect to arrive at an approximate return to “normal.”We live in hope (again, past performance is no guarantee of the future).

The next Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: February 2010

The last Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: December 2009

Jobs:

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to weaken this month (down 263,000 in September) ending a slowdown trend (201,000 in August (revised), 304,000 in July (revised), 467,000 in June, 345,000 in May, 539,000 in April and 633,000 in March). 

After the lowest level of job losses in a year, employment slipped by about 50,000 jobs from last months level. 

The average 3-month job layoff figure of 256,000 for July through September 2009 dropped 21 percent from the same average last month, when it was 324,000 for June through August, and 57 percent from the previous 3-month period (April through June) when it averaged 450,333 (also down from 505,667 for March through May). 

Although the unemployment slowdown has lost its momentum this month, the numbers still indicate that companies are approaching their maximum “leanness” and sustains perceptions that the economy gradually will swing to recovery.

Unemployment has increased steadily by 0.4 or 0.5 percent every month from December 2008 through May 2009.  August was the first month the increase was 0.3 percent.  September is similar.

The number of unemployed persons increased in September by 214,000 (August by 466,000, a decrease in July of 267,000, increases in June of 218,000, May of 787,000, April of 563,000 and March of 851,000.  Since the start of the recession in December 2007, 7.8 million workers have lost their jobs. 

Total unemployment has risen from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January to 12.5 million (8.1%) in February, to 13.2 million (8.5%) in March, 13.7 million (8.9%) in April, to 14.5 million in May (9.4%), 14.7 million in June (9.5%), 14.46 million in July (9.4%), and 14.9 million in August (9.7%).

The current rate is 9.8% and the number unemployed is at 15.1 million. 

Unemployment is the highest since June 1983 and has doubled since the start of the recession in December 2007.  In a healthy economy, around 125,000 jobs a month must be added and filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

There is little doubt at this point; we will hit 10% unemployment in the near future. 

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) rose to 9.2 million from the 9.1 million in August (8.8 million in July, and 9.0 million in June).  These persons had their hours cut back or were unable to find full-time jobs.  Since the start of the recession, the number of such workers has increased by 4.4 million, and has remained relatively constant since March 2009. 

The unemployment numbers look to be peaking.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) has tripled since the start of the recession to 5.4 million since December 2007, adding 450,0000 to that number in September.  One in three (35.6%) unemployed persons are in this category. 

Ed.Note: It is possible that as consumer and business confidence is improving, more workers are starting to look for jobs again, returning to the workforce in anticipation of better employment conditions.  This drives the unemployment rate higher.

Construction job losses led the month (down 64,000 for September, 65,000 for August, 76,000 for July, 79,000 for June, 59,000 for May, 110,000 for April and 161,000 for March) with a total of 1.5 million since December 2007. 

Manufacturing was a close second (down 51,000 for September, 63,000 for August, 52,000 for July, 136,000 for June, 156,000 for May, 149,000 for April and 161,000 for March) with widespread job losses totaling 2.1 million since December 2007. 

Education and health services continued to add jobs, with payrolls increasing by 19,000 (52,000 in August and 21,000 in July).  Government employment fell by 53,000 (18,000 in August and 28,000 in July).

Retail trade employment dropped by 39,000 (9,600 for August, 44,00 for July, 18,000 for June and 47,000 for April). 

Service-providers stayed relatively the same after cutting 80,000 workers in August, while the goods-producers lost 136,000 jobs.

Professional and business service also stayed relatively the same after decliningby 22,000 in August, less than the 38,000 in July, 118,000 in June, 51,000 in May, 122,0000 in April and 133,000 in March. 

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (25.9%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics.  The lowest unemployment started with Asians (7.4%) followed up by Adult women (7.8%), Whites, then Adult men (10.3%). 

The good news from this data, is that the job losses seem to be lessening.  It is perhaps due to fewer jobs available to lose, but the lower figures are an encouraging sign. 

The average workweek edged down by 0.1 to 33.0 hours in August.  This figure closely correlates with overall output and gives clues on when firms will start hiring. 

Average hourly earnings (reflecting the recent increase in the legal minimum wage) edged up to $18.67 ($18.65 in August, $18.59 in July), rising for a fifth straight month.  

 Workforce:

The total Civilian labor force stands at 154.0 million (down 571,000 from August).  There are nearly a million fewer workers in the work force than in June.   There are now 15.1 million people unemployed putting the rate at 9.8% of the available work force, last reached in June 1983. 

The Civilian labor force usually grows as a recession winds down and optimism about finding work grows.  But as long as Americans remain anxious about their jobs, consumer spending is not expected to grow enough to power an economic rebound. 

The employment population ratio, at 58.8 percent, has declined by 3.9 percent since the recession began in December 2007.

Comparing now with the final month of the last major downturn in November 1982, the total Civilian labor force then stood at 111.1 million.  In that month, there were 11.9 million people unemployed accounting for 10.8% of the available work force (average for the year was 10.6 million unemployed with the rate at 9.7%). 

Looking at jobs needed to reduce unemployment
with the total Civilian labor force at 154.0 million:

.
To restore employment to the 5.5% level of 2008, about 6.6 million people will have to regain their job or start new jobs.  It is a tall mountain to climb. 

Ed.Note:  Government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.  With the current Civilian labor force, that means that on a permanent basis there will be roughly 12.5 million people unemployed — more than 4 million more than at the “normal” level today. 

Update: October 5:  The U.S. service sector grew in September for the first time in 13 months.  The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its service index hit 50.9 last month, up from 48.4 in August.   A reading of 50 is the dividing line between growth and contraction. 

Other encouraging signs were that the new orders index rose to 54.2, climbing over the dividing line for the first time in a year.  New orders are an indicator of future activity.  In addition, business order backlogs rose for the first time in 14 months.

Five industries grew in September; wholesale trade, retail, construction, utilities and health care.  In addition to healthcare and educational services, support services for companies added jobs, another encouraging sign. 

 Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 60,000 households across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey.  The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results. 

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force.  They are counted separately.  Their number has nearly doubled in the previous 12 months.

 Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president’s $787 billion stimulus bill signed into law hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs.  Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 7+%. 

The White House Council of Economic Advisers released a report showing the plan would save or create 1.5 million jobs by the end of 2009 and 3.5 million by the end of 2010. 

A senior White House official stated that the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus plan will meet their previous estimates to save 3.5 million U.S. jobs by the end of 2010, but the unemployment rate at that time may be higher due to further deterioration in the economy.  White House officials have been careful to point out that estimated jobs created and saved have merely slowed continued job losses.

 Stimulus spending by state: 

As of September 30, 2009, of the
$241,105,531,529 announced
$214,964,917,646 (89%) has been made available
$90,402,704,572 (37.5%) has been paid out to the states

http://www.recovery.gov/?q=content/funding-notification

 Recession histories:

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%. 

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next five to six months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart  that includes every recession since World War II.  It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. 

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently.  Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

 Recession peaks 1974-2009 

 Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later.  By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

 The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2008 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:

It is interesting to recognize that in most cases, unemployment peaks roughly one-third of the timeline for unemployment to return to its “normal” rate, so we can double the number of months from the Start to the Peak to expect to arrive at an approximate return to “normal.”

We live in hope (again, past performance is no guarantee of the future).

The next Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: October 2009

The last Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: August 2009