Many of us remember last year’s showdown over raising the federal debt limit.

What could be some reasons behind it the line drawn between the Capitol building and the White House?

The debt ceiling increases, as well as federal spending, the staggering national debt and President Obama’s fiscal stewardship are all issues the GOP is campaigning on.

The last debt ceiling standoff in 2011 worked very well for the Republicans.  They got huge spending cuts that slowed the economy and drove the president’s approval rating into the basement.

It also drove Congressional ratings down, but eight months later, everyone has forgotten the particulars of the fight and approval ratings are once again reasonable.  This was such a good political weapon that it will be brought out repeatedly until someone connects responsibility with the crises and makes them accountable.

Mitt Romney will certainly be the Republican standard bearer in the fall of this year.  The post-election battles like managing the debt ceiling and the expiration of the Bush tax cuts at the end of the year as well as their ensuing messy cleanups would not be something a political party wants to leave for an incoming Republican leader.  And they don’t.

My best guess is that the Washington D.C. Republicans believe that Mitt Romney will not win the election.  The Republicans are putting their hopes into taking over Congress by maintaining control of the House and capturing the Senate which will severely weaken the influence of the existing president.

The debt limit position doubtlessly comes from the Tea Party portion of the Republican caucus.  Those members still believe that they have an unwavering mandate from their electorate to reduce the federal budget by a huge chunk, even if it puts the United States into default.

And John Boehner wants to keep his job and survive a GOP vote for the next Speaker of the House.

The sizable Tea Party faction of the GOP caucus, combined with the unruly and nearly uncontrollable members of his party has kept Boehner in a cage since his first day of speakership, releasing him only when they need a bloodthirsty champion.  They are still angry with him for trying to cut a deal with the president last summer.  He will not let that happen again.

Employment Situation:Economic News release

The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed. This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring.

–Current: 242.435 million; up 166 thousand from last month; up 3.58 million in the last 12 months (from 238.85 million).

Employment is a moving target. In a healthy economy, around 60% of those newly eligible look for employment, so about 2.14 million new jobs per year must be filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers actively looking for work.

–Current: 154.87 million; up 476,000 from last month; up 1.57 million in the last 12 months (from 153.3 million). In 2011, the labor force increased by an average of 22,800 per month.

–Employed workers: 142.065 million; up 428,000 from last month; up 2.51 million in the last 12 months (from 139.55 million).

–Unemployed workers: 12.81 million; up 48,000 from last month; down 945 thousand in the last 12 months(from 13.75 million).

–Civilian population not in the labor force: 87.564 million; down 310 thousand from last month; up 2.01 million in the last 12 months (from 85.55 million).

At the start of the recession, 62.7% of the population was employed. Currently it is 58.6%.

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) remains constant at 8.3 percent, the lowest since March of 2009.

Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (does not count farm workers).

–Current: 132.7 million; up 227,000 jobs from last month; up 2.02 million the last 12 months (130.7), increased by 3.45 million since the February 2010 low (129.246 million).

Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 110.7 million; up 233,000 jobs from last month; up 2.25 million in the last 12 months (108.46).

Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment.

–Current: 21.986 million; down 6,000 jobs from last month; down 226,000 in the last 12 months (22.212).

Bottom Line: February

The Labor Department reported 227,000 jobs were added this month, adding to the theory that the employment situation not as bad as first reported. Job growth was spread among many sectors indicating the recovery is becoming more durable than earlier thought even as new job seekers flooded into the labor force.

The increase in nonfarm jobs exceeded 200,000 for the third straight month with the revision of job gains upward to 223,000 for December and 284,000 for January. The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data shows three-month averages for the last nine months consistently growing. The past three months of full-time job growth is the fastest since early 2006 with average hourly earnings rising to $23.31.

The Civilian labor force increased by 476,000 although only 166,000 were added to the Civilian population, but including the 310,000 who were not part of the labor force rejoining the search for work. That’s a good sign because it means people believe more work is available.

There are still currently 87.564 million people “not in the labor force.” Taking out military, students, retirees and homemakers leaves roughly 24.744 million, who for a variety of personal reasons including sickness, family responsibilities, etc. are either unable or unwilling to look for work, and have not actively looked for work in the last four weeks.

The increase in the Civilian labor force (+476,000) combined with the change in employment level (+428,000 employed. +48,000 unemployed) kept the unemployment rate constant at 8.3%.

The economy still has a long way to go to recapture the nearly 6 million more positions that were available before the recession began. At the current rate of job addition and hiring, the economy would not arrive at pre-recession employment levels for four more years.

The big question is, will the jobless rate ever return to the 5% – 6% level seen before the recession?

After three years with unemployment topping 8 percent, the U.S. has seen the longest period of high unemployment since the Great Depression. Perhaps this recession should be renamed the ‘Greater Depression.’

The impact of rising gasoline prices impacts the unemployment picture as well. Employers announced planned workforce reductions of more than 50,000 during February, adding to the 105,214 planned job cuts for the first two months of 2012, according to global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. These job cuts have been concentrated in consumer products and transportation, where consumers have to spend more on fuel and less on the products and services offered by these firms.

Jobs were the lead topic in Congress, with the Senate moving forward with a $109 billion transportation bill. Congress faces an end-of-March deadline for the new transportation bill with jobs of nearly 2 million construction workers at risk without new funding.

The Obama administration endorsed a Republican House-led JOBS (Jump-start Our Business Start-ups) Act by saying that helping small businesses and start-ups “is fundamental to having an economy built to last.”

Voters consistently have ranked jobs and the economy as top issues for this election season.

Recession summary:

The economy took a dive in late 2007, and the administrations of Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama have struggled to reverse the loss of jobs.

Since Obama took office in 2009, various government programs and bailouts have been instituted to stimulate the economy, including Cash for Clunkers and a tax credit for home buyers.

In February 2009, Congress passed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, a stimulus package infusing $787 billion into the economy, but unemployment still soared. The average unemployment rate for 2008 was 5.8 percent, rising to 9.3 percent in 2009, and peaking at 10.1 percent in October. In 2010, the unemployment rate has hovered around 9.7 percent, dropping to 9.5 percent in June and July.

Obama and others have advertised the stimulus as preventing a depression. Republicans characterize it as wasteful, inefficient, and ineffective government spending at a time when the national debt continues to soar.

Democrats have continued to introduce smaller stimulus packages and unemployment benefits extensions, with limited success. Crossover votes from moderate Republican Sens. Susan Collins and Olympia Snowe have allowed some legislation to pass. In August 2010, the two were the only Republicans to vote with Democrats on a bill to give $10 billion to prevent layoffs of teachers, firefighters, police officers, and others.

In 2012, Bush-era tax cuts are set to expire, sparking a debate over whether they should be extended. Republicans want to keep all the tax cuts in place, but Democrats prefer to let the cuts for people in the top tax brackets expire.

Consumer Confidence Survey

For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:

• Consumer Confidence Index^® (short-term outlook) increased to 70.8 from last month’s 61.5 (1985=100).
• Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) increased to 45.0 from last month’s 38.8 rating.
• Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) increased to 88.0 from last month’s level of 76.7 on American pessimism.

Americans are occasionally becoming optimistic about the present or the future.

Household Survey Data

Nonfarm payroll employment gained 227,000 in February. Previous month changes were: January (+284,000); December (+203,000); November (+157,000); October (+112,000); September (+210,000); August (+104,000); July (+127,000); June (+20,000); May (+53,000); April (+217,000); March (+194,000); February (+235,000).

Census workers peaked at 564,000 workers in May 2010.

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: December through February (+714,000); September through November (+479,000); June through August (+251,000).

Between January 2007 and December 2009, 6.9 million workers were displaced from jobs they had held for 3 years or more. By January 2010, 49 percent of them were reemployed, but not necessarily in the same industries they had worked before.

Average weekly hours and overtime

The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.8 hours;average hourly and weekly earnings held steady at $19.64 with weekly earnings at $663.83, compared with 12 months ago when they were $649.49, an increase of 22% over the year.

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.

Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 3.1 percent over the last 12 months while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 2.9 percent. Cost for food at home has increased by 4.5 percent, gasoline by 12.6 percent, and fuel oil by 8.9 percent.

The CPI rose 2.9 percent in 2011 after a 1.5 percent increase in 2010. This was the largest December-December increase since 2007.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) decreased by 111,000 to 8.12 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (+74,000) or could only find part-time work (-147,000). The number of persons working part time for non-economic reasons increased by 191,000.

The number of persons not in the labor force but marginally attached to the labor force , decreased by 201,000 to 2.61 million (a year earlier it was 2.73 million). These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They were not considered part of the labor force because they had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks.

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workersdecreased by 53,000 in the current month to 1.006 million. These are persons no longer looking for work. This number has decreased by 14,000 from a year earlier.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) decreased by 92,000 to 5.446 million this month. This is 4.10 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.327 million). 42.3% unemployed persons are in this category or 3.5% of the work force. In 2009, 3.42 million were added to that number, but in 2010 only 308,000 were added. In 2011, that number decreased by 833,000.

The average duration of unemploymenthas increased this month to 42.6 weeks. Twelve months ago it was 43.9 weeks.At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed regain employment in 20.3 weeks, where twelve months ago it was 21.1 weeks.

The long-term unemployed number is down by 1.27 million workers since the May 2010 high of 6.71 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (23.8%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (6.3%), followed up by Whites, Adult men (7.7%), then Adult women (7.7%).

Establishment Survey Data

Construction lost 13,000 jobs in February. Previous month changes were January (+21,000); December (+31,000); November (+1,000); October (-10,000); September (+31,000): August (-14,000); July (+10,000);June (-7,000); May (+3,000); April (+4,000); March (+5,000); February (+30,000).

The quarterly average construction job data has three-month averages at: December through February (+13,000); September through November (+7,333); June through August (-3,667).

Currently, there are 5.554 million construction jobs, an increase of 6,500 from a year ago (5.489 million). In December 2007, there were 7.487 million.

Manufacturing gained 31,000 jobs in February. Previous month changes were January (+52,000);December (+32,000); November (+3,000); October (+10,000); September(-1,000): August (-1,000); July (+34,000);June (+14,000);May (-2,000); April (+28,000), March (+20,000);February (+33,000).

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: December through February (+38,333); September through November (+4,000); June through August (+15,667).

Currently, there are 11.89 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 227,000 from a year ago (11.664 million). In December 2007, there were 13.74 million.

The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 31^st consecutive month. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 52.4 percent. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

The eleven manufacturing industries reporting growth were led by: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Machinery; Primary Metals; Transportation Equipment.

Retail trade lost 7,400 jobs in February. Previous month changes were January (+26,100); December (+6,800); November (+33,800); October (+15,500); September (+23,100); August (+2,500); July (+28,500);June (+11,500);May (+2,800), April (+64,100); March (-5,600);February (-8,100).

The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: December through February (+8,500); September through November (+24.133); June through August (+14,167).

Currently, there are 14.750 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 195,000 from a year ago (14.555 million). In December 2007, there were 15.58 million.

Employment in retail trade has increased by 402,000 jobs since its low in December 2009 (14.348 million).

Professional and Business Services gained 82,000 jobs in February. Previous month changes were January (+76,000); December (+63,000); November (+39,000); October (+30,000); September (+54,000); August (+45,000); July (+39,000); June (zero); May (+44,000); April (+45,000); March (+75,000);February (+44,000).

Professional and Business services consist of legal, accounting, management consulting, administrative and support services. In hard times, they are the first to be trimmed. In recovery, the jobs grow in these fields, as employers emerge from survival mode.

The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: December through February (+73,667); September through November (+41,000); June through August (+28,000).

Currently, there are 17.75 million professional and business services jobs, an increase of 647,000 jobs from a year ago (17.104 million). In December 2007, there were 18.052 million.

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.368 million jobs since its low in September 2009(16.383 million).

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional and Business Services) gained 45,200 jobs in February. Previous month changes were January (+32,100);December (+8,300); November (+19,700); October (+5,000); September (+24,700); August (+22,600); July (+13,500); June (-7,000); May (-1,000); April (-5,400); March (+30,000); February (+22,700).

The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: December through February (+28,533); September through November (16,467); June through August (9,700).

Currently, there are 2.473 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 214,000 from a year ago (2.259 million). In December 2007, there were 2.55 million.

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.

Educational Services gained 9,100 jobs in February. Previous month changes were January (-5,800); December (+3,600); November (+14,200); October (+7,500); September (+10,200); August (+4,600); July (+15,800);June (-900);May (-4,900); April (+6,200); March (-2,500);February (+4,000).

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: December through February (+2,300); September through November (10,633); June through August (+3,800).

Currently, there are 3.28 million educational services jobs, an increase of 80,000 from a year ago (3.20 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 61,100 jobs in February. Previous month changes were January (+43,000);December (+29,500); November (+6,200); October (+30,300); September (+46,100); August (+34,100); July (+37,400);June (+18,800);May (+26,000), April (+34,000); March(+36,000);February (+36,200).

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: December through February (+44,533); September through November (+27,533); June through August (+33.933).

Currently, there are 16.904 million health care and social assistance jobs, an increase of 399,000 from a year ago (16.505 million).

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.327 million jobs since December 2007(15.577 million).

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 6,000 jobs in January. Previous month changes were January (-1,000); December (-11,000); November (-21,000); October (-22,000); September (-10,000); August (+15,000); July (-46,000); June (-34,000); May (-46,000); April (-24,000); March (-25,000); February (-30,000).

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: December through February (-6,000); September through November (-17,667); June through August (-21,333).

Currently, there are 21.986 million jobs, a decrease of 226,000jobs from a year ago (22.212 million). In December 2007, there were 22.377 million.

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.202 million jobs, a decrease of 31,000 jobs from a year ago (2.233 million). In December 2007, there were 1.974 million.

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 619,100 jobs, a decrease of 24,100jobs from a year ago (643,200). In December 2007, there were 783,000.

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.397 million jobs, an increase of 18,000 from a year ago (2.379 million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.66 million jobs, a decrease of 70,000 from a year ago (2.73 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.861 million jobs, a decrease of 70,000 from a year ago (7.931 million). In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.245 million jobs, a decrease of 52,000 from a year ago (6.297 million). In December 2007, there were 6.428 million.

Employment explained:

To restore employment to the 5.5% level, 5.06 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.

The government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.

To get to the 8% level, 416,320 workers still need jobs. 12.39 million workers will still be unemployed under the new standard.

The Civilian labor force has increased in the past 12 months by 1.57 million.

Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries and local jobs.

Our recession history of unemployment:

Over the last 12 months, net 2.51 million jobs were filled in the Civilian labor force, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

Where are the jobs?

It comes as no surprise that the occupations with the largest job growth in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.).

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).

It comes as no surprise that the occupations with the largest job growth in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.).

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 72,000 households from 754 sample areas across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey. This translates into about 110,000 individuals. All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,007 geographic sampling units, each totally within their state borders and 754 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States. For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods.

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.

Each month, during the week containing the 19th day, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members.

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 0.2 percent (31,000) of the 154.87 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification. This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be.

The basic concepts of employment are:

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results.

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force. They are counted separately.

Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment. He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs. Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8%.

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The president sent The Small Business Jobs and Wages Tax Cut to Congress on January 10, 2010 to try to stimulate more hiring. It focused on small businesses, because as the president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America.” The proposal included:

• Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
• Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
• Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.

• The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
• There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

• There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

President Obama noted that this proposal would be worked into the various other proposals that have already advanced in Congress, such as The HIRING Act of 2010 and The Jobs for Main Street Bill of 2010.

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program (signed into law by President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008) cost much less than expected. Originally expected to exceed $300 billion, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), as of December 10, 2010 estimates the program will cost only $19 billion, freeing up more than $200 billion to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits.

Stimulus spending by state

Updated Mar 16, 2012;
$505,031,155,328 has been awarded
$450,154,570,970 (89.1%) has been paid out to the states

Read: How the Stimulus Is Changing America

Recession histories:

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009.

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade.

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%.

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II. It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak.

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently. Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

Recession peaks 1974-2011:

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later. By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2007 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:

The last time Americans suffered through an unemployment peak of this magnitude was in 1982, that took roughly seven years to return to a “normal” rate. But it was followed almost immediately by another upsurge which took another eight years to correct. The total recovery time was nineteen years from the peak. We can only hope that this recovery is shorter. And it can be shorter if consumers focus on ‘made or grown in America.’

A closer look at unemployment for this recession only:

We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future). 

The next Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: March 2012 released April 6

The last Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: January 2012

Employment Situation:Economic News release

The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed. This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring. 

–Current: 242.27 million; up 1.685 million from last month; up 3.565 million in the last 12 months (from 238.70 million). 

Employment is a moving target. In a healthy economy, around 60% of those newly eligible look for employment, so about 2.14 million new jobs per year must be filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable. 

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers actively looking for work. 

–Current: 154.395 million; up 508,000 from last month; up 1.145 million in the last 12 months (from 153.25 million).  In 2011, the labor force increased by an average of 22,800 per month. 

–Employed workers: 141.64 million; up 847,000 from last month; up 2.31 million in the last 12 months (from 139.33 million). 

–Unemployed workers: 12.76 million; down 339,000 from last month; down 1.16 million in the last 12 months(from 13.9 million). 

–Civilian population not in the labor force: 87.874 million; up 1.177 million from last month; up 2.42 million in the last 12 months (from 85.454 million).

At the start of the recession, 62.7% of the population was employed. Currently it is 58.5%.

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) has dropped to 8.3 percent, the lowest since March of 2009.

Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (does not count farm workers).

–Current: 131.9 million; up 243,000 jobs from last month; up 1.95 million the last 12 months (130.46), increased by 2.654 million since the February 2010 low (129.246 million). 

Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 110.44 million; down 257,000 jobs from last month; up 2.23 million in the last 12 months (108.21).

Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment.

–Current: 21.973 million; down 14,000 jobs from last month; down 276,000 in the last 12 months (22.249).

Bottom Line: January 

The United States created jobs in January at the fastest pace in nine months, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 8.3 nearly a three-year low. even as new job seekers flooded into the labor force. 

For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:

• Consumer Confidence Index^® (short-term outlook) decreased to 61.1 from last month’s 64.8 (1985=100).
• Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) decreased to 38.4 from last month’s 46.5 rating.
• Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) decreased to 76.2 from last month’s level of 77.0 on American pessimism.

Americans are occasionally becoming optimistic about the present or the future.

Household Survey Data

Nonfarm payroll employment gained 243,000 in January. Previous month changes were: December (+203,000); November (+157,000); October (+112,000); September (+210,000); August (+104,000); July (+127,000); June (+20,000); May (+53,000); April (+217,000); March (+194,000); February (+235,000); January (+68,000).

Census workers peaked at 564,000 workers in May 2010.

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: November through January (+201,000); August through October (+142,000); May through July (+66,667).

Between January 2007 and December 2009, 6.9 million workers were displaced from jobs they had held for 3 years or more. By January 2010, 49 percent of them were reemployed, but not necessarily in the same industries they had worked before.

Average weekly hours and overtime

The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.8 hours;average hourly and weekly earnings held steady at $19.62 with weekly earnings at $663.16, compared with 12 months ago when they were $645.62.

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.74 percent while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 3.1 percent. Cost for food at home has increased by 5.3 percent, gasoline by 9.7 percent, and fuel oil by 12.0 percent.  The CPI rose 2.9 percent in 2011 after a 1.5 percent increase in  2010. This was the largest December-December increase since 2007. 

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 132,000 to 8.23 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (+67,000) or could only find part-time work (+132,000). The number of persons working part time for non-economic reasons increased by 264,000.

The number of persons not in the labor force but marginally attached to the labor force , increasing by 269,000 to 2.81 million (about the same as a year earlier when it was 2.80 million). These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They were not considered part of the labor force because they had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks. 

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workersincreased by 114,000 in the current month to 1.06 million. These are persons no longer looking for work. This number has increased by 66,000 from a year earlier.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) decreased by 70,000 to 5.52 million this month. This is 4.16 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.327 million). 42.9% unemployed persons are in this category or 3.6% of the work force. In 2009, 3.42 million were added to that number, but in 2010 only 308,000 were added. In 2011, that number decreased by 833,000.

The average duration of unemploymenthas decreased to 40.1 weeks. Last January it was37.1 weeks.At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed regain employment in 21.1 weeks, less than a week less  than a year ago.

The long-term unemployed number is down by 1.17 million workers since the May 2010 high of 6.71 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (23.2%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (6.7%), followed up by Whites, Adult men (7.7%), then Adult women (7.7%).

Establishment Survey Data

Construction gained 21,000 jobs in January. Previous month changes were December (+31,000); November (+1,000); October (-10,000); September (+31,000): August (-14,000); July (+10,000);June (-7,000); May (+3,000); April (+4,000); March (+5,000); February (+30,000); January (-32,000); December (-16,000).

The quarterly average construction job data has three-month averages at: November through January (+17,667); August through October (+2,333); May through July (+2,000).

Currently, there are 5.57 million construction jobs, an increase of 114,000 from a year ago (5.456 million). In December 2007, there were 7.487 million.

Manufacturing gained 50,000 jobs in December. Previous month changes were December (+32,000); November (+3,000); October (+10,000); September(-1,000): August (-1,000); July (+34,000);June (+14,000);May (-2,000); April (+28,000), March (+20,000);February (+33,000); January (+49,000);December (+14,000).

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: November through January (+28,333); August through October (+2,667); May through July (+15,333).

Currently, there are 11.86 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 235,000 from a year ago (11.63 million). In December 2007, there were 13.74 million.

The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 30^th consecutive month. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 54.1.  A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

The nine manufacturing industries reporting growth were led by: Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Machinery; Computer & Electronic Products.

Retail trade gained 10,500 jobs in January. Previous month changes were December (+6,200); November (+33,800); October (+15,500); September (+23,100); August (+2,500); July (+28,500);June (+11,500);May (+2,800), April (+64,100); March (-5,600);February (-8,100); January (+27,500);December (+2,800); November(-15,600). 

The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: November through January (+16,833); August through October (+13,700); May through July (+14,267).

Currently, there are 14.741 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 193,000 from a year ago (14.550 million). In December 2007, there were 15.58 million.

Employment in retail trade has increased by 393,000 jobs since its low in December 2009 (14.348 million).

Professional and Business Services gained 70,000 jobs in January. Previous month changes were December (+63,000); November (+39,000); October (+30,000); September (+54,000); August (+45,000); July (+39,000); June (zero); May (+44,000); April (+45,000); March (+75,000);February (+44,000); January (+31,000).  

Professional and Business services consist of legal, accounting, management consulting, administrative and support services. In hard times, they are the first to be trimmed. In recovery, the jobs grow in these fields, as employers emerge from survival mode.

The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: November through January (+57,300); August through October (+43,000); May through July (+27,667).

Currently, there are 17.654 million professional and business services jobs, an increase of 599,000 jobs from a year ago (17.055 million). In December 2007, there were 18.052 million.

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.271 million jobs since its low in September 2009(16.383 million).

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional and Business Services) gained 20,100 jobs in January. Previous month changes were December (+8,300); November (+19,700); October (+5,000); September (+24,700); August (+22,600); July (+13,500); June (-7,000); May (-1,000); April (-5,400); March (+30,000); February (+22,700); January (-11,400).

The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: November through January (+15,367); August through October (+17,433); May through July (+1,833).

Currently, there are 2.406 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 39,000 from a year ago (2.245 million). In December 2007, there were 2.55 million.

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.

Educational Services gained 56,000 jobs in January. Previous month changes were December (+6,300); November (+14,200); October (+7,500); September (+10,200); August (+4,600); July (+15,800);June (-900);May (-4,900); April (+6,200); March (-2,500);February (+4,000); January (-100). 

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: November through January (+25,500); August through October (+7,433); May through July (+3,333).

Currently, there are 3.287 million educational services jobs, an increase of 80,100 from a year ago (3.21 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 29,700 jobs in January. Previous month changes were December (+22,000); November (+6,200); October (+30,300); September (+46,100); August (+34,100); July (+37,400);June (+18,800);May (+26,000), April (+34,000); March(+36,000);February (+36,200); January (+12,900).

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: November through January (+19,300); August through October (+36,833); May through July (+27,400).

Currently, there are 16.822 million health care and social assistance jobs, an increase of 333,000 from a year ago (16.489 million).

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.245 million jobs since December 2007(15.577 million).

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 14,000 jobs in January. Previous month changes were December (-17,000); November (-21,000); October (-22,000); September (-10,000); August (+15,000); July (-46,000); June (-34,000); May (-46,000); April (-24,000); March (-25,000); February (-30,000); January (-14,000). 

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: November through January (-17,333); August through October (-5,667); May through July (-42,000). 

Currently, there are 21.973 million jobs, a decrease of 276,000jobs from a year ago (22.249 million). In December 2007, there were 22.377 million.

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.210 million jobs, a decrease of 17,000 jobs from a year ago (2.227 million). In December 2007, there were 1.974 million. 

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 618,100 jobs, a decrease of 27,000jobs from a year ago (645,100). In December 2007, there were 783,000. 

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.381 million jobs, a decrease of 6,000 from a year ago (2.387 million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.673 million jobs, a decrease of 64,000 from a year ago (2.737 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.843 million jobs, a decrease of 106,000 from a year ago (7.949 million). In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.246 million jobs, a decrease of 57,000 from a year ago (6.303 million). In December 2007, there were 6.428 million.

Employment explained:

To restore employment to the 5.5% level, 4.266 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.

The government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.

To get to the 8% level, 406,400 workers need jobs. 12.35 million workers will still be unemployed under the new standard.

The Civilian labor force has increased in the past 12 months by 1.145 million.

Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries and local jobs.

Our recession history of unemployment:

Over the last 12 months, net 1.16 million jobs were filled in the Civilian labor force, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

Where are the jobs?

It comes as no surprise that the occupations with the largest job growth in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.).

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed). 

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 72,000 households from 754 sample areas across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey. This translates into about 110,000 individuals. All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,007 geographic sampling units, each totally within their state borders and 754 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States. For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods.

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.

Each month, during the week containing the 19th day, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members.

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 0.2 percent (31,000) of the 154.395 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification. This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be.

The basic concepts of employment are:

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results.

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force. They are counted separately.

Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment. He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs. Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8%.

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The president sent The Small Business Jobs and Wages Tax Cut to Congress on January 10, 2010 to try to stimulate more hiring. It focused on small businesses, because as the president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America.” The proposal included:

Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.

• Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
• Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.
• The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.

• There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

• There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

President Obama noted that this proposal would be worked into the various other proposals that have already advanced in Congress, such as The HIRING Act of 2010 and The Jobs for Main Street Bill of 2010.

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program (signed into law by President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008) cost much less than expected. Originally expected to exceed $300 billion, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), as of December 10, 2010 estimates the program will cost only $19 billion, freeing up more than $200 billion to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits.

Stimulus spending by state

Updated Jan 20, 2012;

$503,320,155,327 has been awarded
$446,021,847,165 (88.6%) has been paid out to the states

Read: How the Stimulus Is Changing America

Recession histories:

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009.

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade.

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%.

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II. It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak.

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently. Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

Recession peaks 1974-2011:

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later. By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2007 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:

The last time Americans suffered through an unemployment peak of this magnitude was in 1982, that took roughly seven years to return to a “normal” rate. But it was followed almost immediately by another upsurge which took another eight years to correct. The total recovery time was nineteen years from the peak. We can only hope that this recovery is shorter. And it can be shorter if consumers focus on ‘made or grown in America.’

A closer look at unemployment for this recession only:

We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future).
The next Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: February 2012 released March 9
The last Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: December 2011

Employment Situation:Economic News release

The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed. This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring.

–Current: 240.4 million; up 172,000 from last month; up 1.73 million in the last 12 months (from 238.72 million).

Employment is a moving target. In a healthy economy, around 60% of those newly eligible look for employment, so about 1.035 million new jobs per year must be filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers actively looking for work.

–Current: 153.88 million; down 315,000 from last month; down 67,000 in the last 12 months (from 153.95 million). On average the labor force is decreasing by 558 workers per month.

–Employed workers: 140.58 million; up 278,000 from last month; up 1.67 million in the last 12 months (from 139.91 million).

–Unemployed workers: 13.30 million; down 594,000 from last month; down 1.74 million in the last 12 months(from 15.04 million).

–Civilian population not in the labor force: 86.56 million; up 487,000 from last month; up 1.79 million in the last 12 months (from 84.765 million).

At the start of the recession, 62.7% of the population was employed. Currently it is 58.5%.

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) has dropped to 8.6 percent, the lowest since March of 2009.

Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (does not count farm workers).

–Current: 131.708 million; up 120,000 jobs from last month; up 1.60 million the last 12 months (130.108), increased by 2.46 million since the February 2010 low (129.246 million).

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +158,000 to +210,000, and the change for October was revised from +80,000 to +100,000.

Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 109.719 million; up 140,000 jobs from last month; up 1.88 million in the last 12 months (107.841).

Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment.

–Current: 21.989 million; down 20,000 jobs from last month; down 278,000 in the last 12 months (22.267).

Bottom Line: November:

Unemployment rate fell 0.4 percent to 8.6 percent, representing 594,000 fewer people looking for work. Many of these jobs are seasonal that will end with the holiday season. The good news is that these jobs will provide funds for families who otherwise would have coal in their Christmas stockings. The not-so-good news is that half of the reduction came from a decrease in the Civilian labor force which declined to 64 percent of the eligible population.

According to the PayScale Index that tracks changes in compensation for full-time, private-sector employees, salaries for people with equal skills and qualifications have been trending lower since the end of 2008, when the recession was at its peak. For those hired now, starting salaries are lower than then.

Employment rose in a number of service-providing industries including clothing retail (+27,000), food services and drinking places (+33,000), professional and business services (+33,000) and health care (+17,000) while government employment continued to trend down with the U.S. Postal Service losing 5,000 jobs.

Since the employment depression in December 2009, retailers have added an average of 14,000 jobs per month. Many of these jobs went to workers who were formerly in higher paid positions. In the previous 12 months, leisure and hospitality added 253,000 jobs. Over the past 12 months, health care has added an average of 27,000 jobs per month. Employment in both state and local governments has been trending down since the second half of 2008.

Long term unemployed workers, those jobless for 27 weeks or more still accounts for 43% of all the unemployed and 3.7% of the total work force. The number is down by 1.02 million from the May 2010 high of 6.7 million, but we still have far to go. Marking progress by year, 3.4 million were added to the number in 2009, but 2010 saw a decrease of 308,000. So far this year, the number has decreased by 750,000.

When there are more jobs than the talent to fill them, workers were attracted with salaries above market wage. Today, there are fewer jobs, and businesses have their pick. Since they cannot reduce the salaries of their existing workforce without risking losing their experience, they offer less to new hires.

Companies are also offering jobs to lesser qualified applicants with fewer credentials who can still do the job effectively, but will accept lower compensation.

This can be tough for a seasoned worker with a solid career history, but working is better than being unemployed with the spectre of unemployment benefits running out before a better position can be secured. Workers should research objective salary information and consider employee benefits like health insurance and how the job will fit with their life.

Early last year, 75 percent of the unemployed labor force were receiving benefit checks. The figure is now 48 percent. Nearly one-third of America’s unemployed have had no job is more than a year. Nearly 46 million unemployed are no longer eligible for benefits and are surviving on food stamps.

The U.S. economy has remained weak and an analysis of long-term unemployment data suggests that about 2 million people have used up their 99 weeks of benefit checks and still cannot find work.

Contributing to the unemployed who are not receiving benefits are college graduates or others seeking jobs for the first time. They aren’t eligible since only those who have lost a job through no fault of their own qualify for benefits.

Washington lawmakers will decide whether to continue the extended benefits by the end of this year. If the program ends, nearly 2.2 million people will be cut off by February 2012.

Congress has extended the program nine times, but it will be the first time the Republican-led House will vote on the issue and they might balk at the $45 billion cost.  

Consumer Confidence Survey

For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:

• Consumer Confidence Index^® (short-term outlook) improved in November increasing to 56.0 from last month’s 40.9 (1985=100).
• Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) increased to 38.3 from last month’s 27.1 rating.
• Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) increased to 67.8 from last month’s level of 50.0 on American optimism.

Americans are beconing optimistic about the present or the future.

Household Survey Data

Nonfarm payroll employment gained 120,000 in November. Previous month changes were: October (+100,000); September (+210,000); August (+104,000); July (+127,000); June (+20,000); May (+53,000); April (+217,000); March (+194,000); February (+235,000); January (+68,000); December (+121,000); November (+93,000).

Census workers peaked at 564,000 workers in May 2010.

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+143,000); June through August 1(+83,667); March through May (+139,667).

Between January 2007 and December 2009, 6.9 million workers were displaced from jobs they had held for 3 years or more. By January 2010, 49 percent of them were reemployed, but not necessarily in the same industries they had worked before.

Average weekly hours and overtime

The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.6 hours;average hourly and weekly earnings held steady at $19.54 with weekly earnings at $656.54, compared with 12 months ago when they were $644.54.

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 1.86 percent while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 3.4 percent. Cost for food at home has increased by 5.9 percent, gasoline by 19.7 percent, and fuel oil by 25.0 percent.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) decreased by 378,000 to 8.5 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (-296,000) or could only find part-time work (-105,000). The number of persons working part time for non-economic reasons decreased by 36,000.

The number of persons not in the labor force but marginally attached to the labor force remained relatively constant, increasing by 36,000 to 2.59 million (about the same as a year earlier when it was 2.53 million). These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They were not considered part of the labor force because they had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks.

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workers increased by 129,000 in the current month to 1.1 million. These are persons no longer looking for work. This number has decreased by 186,000 from a year earlier.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) decreased by 185,000 to 5.69 million this month. This is nearly 4.3 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.327 million). 43% unemployed persons are in this category or 3.7% of the work force. In 2009, 3.42 million were added to that number, but in 2010 only 308,000 were added. So far in 2011, that number has decreased by 750,000.

The average duration of unemploymenthas increased to 40.9 weeks.A year ago it was33.9 weeks.At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed regain employment in 21.6 weeks, about the same as a year ago.

The long-term unemployed number is down by 1.02 million workers since the May 2010 high of 6.71 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (23.7%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (6.5%), followed up by Adult women (7.8%), Whites then Adult men (8.3%).

Establishment Survey Data

Construction lost 12,000 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (-15,000); September (+31,000): August (-14,000); July (+10,000);June (-7,000); May (+3,000); April (+4,000); March (+5,000); February (+30,000); January (-32,000); December (-16,000); November (-2,000).

The quarterly average construction job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+1,333); June through August 1(-3,667); March through May (+4,000).

Currently, there are 5.522 million construction jobs, an increase of 18,000 from a year ago (5.504 million). In December 2007, there were 7.487 million.

Manufacturing gained 2,000 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+6,000); September(-1,000): August (-1,000); July (+34,000);June (+14,000);May (-2,000); April (+28,000), March (+20,000);February (+33,000); January (+49,000);December (+14,000); November (+15,000).

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+2,333); June through August 1(+15,667); March through May (+15,333).

Currently, there are 11.764 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 210,000 from a year ago (11.554 million). In December 2007, there were 13.74 million.

The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 28^th consecutive month. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 52.7, up by 1.9%. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 8 are reporting growth: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Paper Products.

Retail trade gained 49,800 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+12,700); September (+23,100); August (+2,500); July (+28,500);June (+11,500);May (+2,800), April (+64,100); March (-5,600);February (-8,100); January (+27,500);December (+2,800); November(-15,600).

The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+28,533); June through August 1(+14,167); March through May (+19,509).

Currently, there are 14.667 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 226,100 from a year ago (14.441 million). In December 2007, there were 15.58 million.

Employment in retail trade has increased by 319,000 jobs since its low in December 2009 (14.348 million).

Professional and Business Services gained 33,000 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+39,000); September (+54,000); August (+45,000); July (+39,000); June (zero); May (+44,000); April (+45,000); March (+75,000);February (+44,000); January (+31,000); December (+54,000); November (+85,000)

Professional and Business services consist of legal, accounting, management consulting, administrative and support services. In hard times, they are the first to be trimmed. In recovery, the jobs grow in these fields, as employers emerge from survival mode.

The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+42,000); June through August 1(+24,667); March through May (+54,667).

Currently, there are 17.365 million professional and business services jobs, an increase of 521,000 jobs from a year ago (16.844 million). In December 2007, there were 18.052 million.

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 982,000 jobs since its low in September 2009(16.383 million).

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional and Business Services) gained 22,300 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+15,800); September (+24,700); August (+22,600); July (+13,500); June (-7,000); May (-1,000); April (-5,400); March (+30,000); February (+22,700); January (-11,400); December (+38,100); November (+26,800).

The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+20,933); June through August 1(+9,700); March through May (+21,367).

Currently, there are 2.333 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 169,100 from a year ago (2.164 million). In December 2007, there were 2.55 million.

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.

Educational Services gained 8,300 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+6,700); September (+10,100); August (+4,600); July (+15,800);June (-900);May (-4,900); April (+6,200); March (-2,500);February (+4,000); January (-100); December (+5,400); November (+6,800).

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+8,367); June through August 1(+6,500); March through May (-400).

Currently, there are 3.25 million educational services jobs, an increase of 71,200 from a year ago (3.177 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 18,700 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+30,300); September (+46,100); August (+34,100); July (+37,400);June (+18,800);May (+26,000), April (+34,000); March(+36,000);February (+36,200); January (+12,900);December (+27,900); November (+30,900).

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+31,700); June through August 1(+30,100); March through May (+32,000).

Currently, there are 16.901 million health care and social assistance jobs, an increase of 346,000 from a year ago (16.555 million).

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.295 million jobs since December 2007(15.577 million).

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 20,000 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (-17,000); September (-10,000); August (+15,000); July (-46,000); June (-34,000); May (-46,000); April (-24,000); March (-25,000); February (-30,000); January (-14,000); December (-18,000); November (-35,000).

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: September through November (-15,600); June through August 1(-21,667); March through May (-31,667).

Currently, there are 21.989 million jobs, a decrease of 278,000jobs from a year ago (22.267 million). In December 2007, there were 22.377 million.

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.205 million jobs, a decrease of 4,400 jobs from a year ago (2.200 million). In December 2007, there were 1.974 million.

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 612,400 jobs, a decrease of 30,700jobs from a year ago (643,100). In December 2007, there were 783,000.

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.406 million jobs, a decrease of 13,400 from a year ago (2.393 million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.667 million jobs, a decrease of 84,300 from a year ago (2.751 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.855 million jobs, a decrease of 107,000 from a year ago (7.962 million). In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.244 million jobs, a decrease of 72,400 from a year ago (6.317 million). In December 2007, there were 6.428 million.

Employment explained:

To restore employment to the 5.5% level, 4.84 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.

The government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.

To get to the 8% level, 992,360 workers need jobs. 12.31 million workers will still be unemployed under the new standard.

The Civilian labor force has decreased in the past 12 months by 67,000.

Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries and local jobs.

Our recession history of unemployment: 

Over the last 12 months, net 1.671 million jobs were filled in the Civilian labor force, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

Where are the jobs?

It comes as no surprise that the occupations with the largest job growth in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.).

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 72,000 households from 754 sample areas across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey. This translates into about 110,000 individuals. All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,007 geographic sampling units, each totally within their state borders and 754 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States. For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods.

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.

Each month, during the week containing the 19th day, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members.

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 0.2 percent (30,000) of the 153.9 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification. This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be.

The basic concepts of employment are:

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results.

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force. They are counted separately.

Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment. He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs. Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8%.

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The president sent The Small Business Jobs and Wages Tax Cut to Congress on January 10, 2010 to try to stimulate more hiring. It focused on small businesses, because as the president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America.” The proposal included:

• Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
• Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
• Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.

• The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
• There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

• There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

President Obama noted that this proposal would be worked into the various other proposals that have already advanced in Congress, such as The HIRING Act of 2010 and The Jobs for Main Street Bill of 2010.

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program (signed into law by President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008) cost much less than expected. Originally expected to exceed $300 billion, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), as of December 10, 2010 estimates the program will cost only $19 billion, freeing up more than $200 billion to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits.