Employment Situation:Economic News release

The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed. This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring.

–Current: 239.87 million; up 200,000 from last month; up 1.77 million in the last 12 months (from 238.10 million).

Employment is a moving target. In a healthy economy, around 60% of those newly eligible look for employment, so about 116,000 jobs a month or 1.4 million new jobs per year must be filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers actively looking for work.

–Current: 153.59 million; up 366,000 from last month; down 138,177 in the last 12 months (from 154.12 million).

–Employed workers: 139.63 million; up 331,000 from last month; up 360,000 in the last 12 months (from 139.27 million).

–Unemployed workers: 13.97 million; up 156,000 from last month; down 882,000 in the last 12 months(from 14.85 million).

–Civilian population not in the labor force: 86.28 million; down 165,000 from last month; up 2.29 million in the last 12 months (from 83.98 million).

At the start of the recession, 62.7% of the population was employed. Currently it is 58.2%.

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) was basically unchanged at 9.1 (9.09) percent.

Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (does not count farm workers).

–Current: 131.13 million; net zero jobs from last month; up 1.26 millionin the last 12 months (129.87), increased by 1.884 million since the February 2010 low (129.246 million).

Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 109.17 million; up 17,000 jobs from last month; up 1.71 millionin the last 12 months (107.46).

Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment.

–Current: 22.034 million; down 17,000 jobs from last month; down 450,000in the last 12 months (22.412).

Bottom Line:

August added/lost zero jobs: a labor standoff.

The latest monthly jobs report that showed that job growth unexpectedly skidded to a stop in August is increasing the belief that the president and the U.S. Federal Reserve will move to stimulate the economy.

Nonfarm payrolls were unchanged last month and figures for the previous two months were revised downward to show a combined 58,000 fewer jobs created than had been estimated in the BLS survey.

The lack of hiring in the U.S. last month surprised economists, who were expecting 93,000 jobs to be added.

The jobs picture is worse than the unemployment rate conveys, because America’s 14 million unemployed are also competing with 8.8 million “underemployed,” part-time workers who want full-time jobs.

When consumer demand eventually picks up, employers will likely increase hours for part-timers before they add jobs. It means they have room to expand without hiring.

The unemployed will face another source of competition as well, once the economy improves; the roughly 2.6 million people who aren’t counted as unemployed because they’ve stopped looking for work. Once they start looking again, they’ll be reclassified as unemployed and with an increased labor force, the unemployment rate will likely rise.

The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office expects the rate to exceed 8 percent until 2014. The White House predicts it will average 9 percent next year.

Combined, the 14 million officially unemployed, the “underemployed” part-timers who want full-time work, and “discouraged” people who have stopped looking make up 16.2 percent of working-age Americans.

After the recession hit, many companies went into survival mode and slashed workers’ hours. If those those lost hours were restored, they would represent enough hours to equal about 950,000 full-time jobs; but because employers are still reluctant to increase hours even for part-timers, hiring appears a long way off.

On average nationally, 4.5 unemployed people are competing for each job, while in a healthy economy, the average is about two.

The president is strongly in favor of raising taxes on the wealthy, who pay overall, a lower percentage of their income in taxes. Republicans are strongly against the increase, both as a matter of age-old Republican policy, and because they verbally predict that their business-owning electorate will not invest to help hire workers.

Of course, with the lower taxes they are now paying, and the tax breaks they now receive, business owners haven’t done much hiring to date.

It is a rule of nature that business management and owners will keep as much money as they can while paying out as little as possible for labor. Recent tax breaks have not been spent on hiring, it has been held “for a rainy day.”

It is glaringly evident that Trickle down economics does not work. Business owners are not altruistic. Examples are the oil companies, who continue to log ever greater profits, while some Americans are spending up to half of their take-home pay on fuel costs.

Recent polls show, over and over again, that voters think jobs — not debt, not the deficit, not size of government — is the most important issue. And they want Washington to do something.

It has become increasingly apparent that the government is ineffective in creating jobs in the public sector. The bickering and infighting, not only between the two major political parties, but within the Republican party itself, has rendered Congress impotent, and through some not so subtle rebellion in the ranks has rendered presidential leadership ineffective as well.

On September 8, the president unveiled his new jobs proposal, outlining steps to be taken to put American workers back to work. He will spend countless hours selling the plan to the voters and repairing his image as a leader as well.

Republicans are vowing to look at the president’s proposals while calling on him to consider theirs as well. In Washington speak, they’re trying to figure out how to kill proposals that they have long supported, without looking like the obstructionists they really are.

Just before the president spoke to Congress about his job plan on September 8, House Speaker John Boehner reflected on his party’s position on the upcoming speech.

We must never forget the key aim of Republicans is to gain power, even if they destroy the nation in the process.

The president must show his resolve in solving this problem. He must abandon his image as the World’s Most Rational Man and close the sale of the Jobs Plan by connecting the Jobs Plan to the people’s desire for a better America with responsibility to one another. He must also make Americans believe in his resolve that he will fight to the end for their jobs and a better America.

Americans need to know their president will not give up on them when times are tough.

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 1.9 percent while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 3.8 percent. Cost for food at home has increased by 6.0 percent, gasoline by 32.4 percent, and fuel oil by 35.4 percent.

The economy expanded at an annual rate of just 0.7 percent in the first half of the year, with an associated pullback on hiring, after high gas prices, meager wage gains and supply disruptions caused by the Japan calamity contributed to a slowdown in growth.

Hourly labor rates are also being depressed by the virtual outlawing of collective bargaining by Republican lawmakers in states like Wisconsin, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Ohio, and ‘right-to-work’ states that prohibit agreements that make membership, payment of union dues, or fees a condition of employment.

Labor unions are now formulating a new strategy to build an independent voice separate from any political party.

On a positive note, the limiting of collective bargaining for public employees has worked to close budget shortfalls without costing jobs for teachers and other workers, and may be part of a new way of doing business for states.

The national switch to anemic job growth and high levels of prolonged unemployment threatens to transform many of America’s productive workers into people permanently unemployable. If this becomes the new norm, our nation’s position as a global economic force is at risk.

For those over 16 years old, only 58 percent are working, a level not seen since 1983, and it is worse for older workers, young people, blacks and Hispanics and those with only a basic education.

It has been found that persistently high unemployment has negative long-term social and economic consequences for workers and their families. The longer people are unemployed, the more their job skills decline, making them less employable, with fewer and more remote network connections.

Also workers who enter the workforce during a recession have lower lifetime earnings than those who began working when jobs were plentiful. Their entire careers and financial livelihoods are negatively affected by their early labor market experience.

And older unemployed workers have their financial situations negatively affected as they often leave the labor market early, reducing their retirement incomes.

There are actions like work sharing and subsidized jobs that can be taken to address high unemployment.

Work sharing is a state unemployment insurance program that allows companies faced with reduced demand to reduce the hours of all employees instead of laying some off. Company workers maintain their jobs and benefits and also receive partial unemployment compensation to offset some of their lost income.

Twenty-two states currently have work sharing programs. According to the Department of Labor, during 2009 and 2010, use of this program saved 265,000 jobs.

Subsidized jobs provides opportunity for youth and long-term unemployed workers. Last year, the government ended a successful, two-year subsidized jobs program that provided employment for about 250,000 people. The program put people to work while jobs were scarce, and helped employers boost productivity.

The economy cannot move forward without reviving the purchasing power of America’s disappearing middle class.

We can take a lesson from Germany that has grown faster than the United States for the last 15 years. While Americans’ average hourly pay has risen only 6 percent since 1985, adjusted for inflation, German workers’ pay has risen almost 30 percent.

Germany has done it mainly by becoming the model for staving off a labor market crisis by focusing on education and by maintaining strong labor unions. The German labor policy of Kurzarbeit (short work) is getting the most credit for the drop in unemployment.

Validating the view that it is better to have something than nothing, Germany is working a strategy of work sharing. Under Kurzarbeit, the German government pays as much as 67% of lost net wages of a worker if their employer needs to cut wages and working times during economic slowdown.

Social contributions such as pensions, health care and jobless benefits are fully met by the German Federal Employment Agency. Temporary workers are also eligible.

If no work is available, the employee is obligated to enroll in training and skill development with costs paid for by the agency.

The advantage to employers is that they can retain their trained staff during periods of economic slowdown, avoiding the cost of rehiring once the economic situation improves.

When the president unveiled his jobs proposal to Congress on September 8, it included extending jobless benefits and payroll tax cuts, offering hiring incentives to employers, and allocating funding for infrastructure improvement projects.

Although Republicans have said they will review the proposal, they are already against it, contending that such spending initiatives have not helped the economy in spite of the $797 billion stimulus package of 2009. Independent economists say the stimulus did help the economy but the major shortcoming of the 2009 stimulus was that it was not large enough to make up for the gaping hole left in the economy.

Read: How the Stimulus Is Changing America

Infrastructure projects are popular among voters and Obama may be able to get Republican grudging agreement on some proposals, but just enough that Americans don’t see them as uncaring for American safety.

The only way to break the unemployment deadlock seems to be to create major infrastructure projects in the states funded by the government and establish a program of job sharing, interning and functional education tied to unemployment benefits. Private business will not do it.

Responsibility for the unemployment situation also lies with the individual. The increasing number of workers dropping from the work force perhaps includes those whose benefits have expired, and have started neighborhood cottage industries for income.

And perhaps that is the future of employment; tiny businesses that start in a garage or on a kitchen table behind a computer screen, and whose services expand to compete with and merge or absorb larger companies, hiring workers along the way. The nation’s history is full of such stories where an individual took charge of his destiny rather than rely on the whims of large companies.

We’ll see. 

Consumer Confidence Survey

For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:

• Consumer Confidence Index^® (short-term outlook) decreased to 44.5 from last month’s 59.2 (1985=100).
• Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) decreased to 33.3 from last month’s 35.7 rating.
• Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) increased to 51.9 from last month’s level of 74.9 on American optimism.

Americans are not happy about the present or the future.

Household Survey Data

Nonfarm payroll employment gained zero jobs in August. Previous month changes were: July (+85,000); June (+20,000); May (+53,000); April (+217,000); March (+194,000); February (+235,000); January (+68,000); December (+121,000); November (+93,000); October (+210,000); September (-24,000; Census workers -136,000; net -112,000); August (-57,000; Census workers -114,000; net +57,000); July (-66,000; Census workers -143,000; net +77,000).

Census workers peaked at 564,000 workers in May 2010.

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: June through August (+35,000); March through May(+154,667); December through February (+141,333).

Between January 2007 and December 2009, 6.9 million workers were displaced from jobs they had held for 3 years or more. By January 2010, 49 percent of them were reemployed, but not necessarily in the same industries they had worked before.

Average weekly hours and overtime

The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.5 hours;average hourly and weekly earnings increased slightly to $19.47 with weekly earnings at $652.25.

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.

In August, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls decreased by 3 cents. This decline followed an 11-cent gain in July.

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 1.9 percent while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 3.8 percent. Cost for food at home has increased by 6.0 percent, gasoline by 32.4 percent, and fuel oil by 35.4 percent.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 430,000 to 8.8 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (+146,000) or could only find part-time work (+219,000).

The number of persons not in the labor force but marginally attached to the labor forceincreased by 164,000 to 1.24 million).These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks and so were not considered part of the labor force. This number is down by 1.13 million from 2.62 million a year ago.

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workersincreased by 2,000 in the current month to407,000. These are persons no longer looking for work. This number has decreased by 703,000 from a year earlier.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) decreased by 151,000 to 6.034 million this month. This is more than 4.5 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.327 million). 43.2% unemployed persons are in this category or 3.9% of the work force. In 2009, 3.52 million were added to that number, but in 2010 only 308,000 were added. So far in 2011, that number has decreased by 407,000.

The average duration of unemployment has decreased to 40.3 weeks. A year ago it was 33.5 weeks. At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed regain employment in 21.8 weeks, 1.2 more than a year ago.

The long-term unemployed number is down by 525,000 workers since the May 2010 high of 6.71 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (25.4%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (7.1%), followed up by Adult women (8.0%), Whites then Adult men (9.1%).

Establishment Survey Data

Construction lost 5,000 jobs in August. Previous month changes were July (+7,000);June (-7,000); May (+3,000); April (+4,000); March (+5,000); February (+30,000); January (-32,000); December (-16,000); November (-2,000); October (+4,000); September (-11,000); August (+34,000) reflecting 10,000 workers on strike in July who returned to work.

The quarterly average construction job datahas three-month averages at: June through August (-1,667); March through May (+4,000); December through February (-6,000).

Currently, there are 5.524 million construction jobs, an increase of 4,000 from a year ago (5.520, million). In December 2007, there were 7.5 million.

Manufacturing lost 3,000 jobs in August. Previous month changes were July (+36,000);June (+14,000);May (-2,000); April (+28,000), March (+20,000);February (+33,000); January (+49,000);December (+14,000); November (+15,000); October (-4,000); September (-6,000); August (-26,000).

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: June through August (+15,667); March through May(+15,333); December through February (+32,000).

Currently, there are 11.757 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 206,000 from a year ago (11.551 million). In December 2007, there were 13.73 million.

The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 25^th consecutive month with new orders and production modestly up. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 50.6, the fourth reading below 60 for 2011 and the past 12 months. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 10 are reporting growth led by Wood Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; Food.

Retail trade lost 7,800 jobs in August. Previous month changes were July (+26,400);June (+11,500);May (+2,800), April (+64,100); March (-5,600);February (-8,100); January (+27,500);December (+2,800); November(-15,600); October (+38,200); September (-3,900); August (+6,400).

The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: June through August (+10,033); March through May(+20,433); December through February (+7,400).

Currently, there are 14.569 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 156,600 from a year ago (14.413 million). In December 2007, there were 15.57 million.

Employment in retail trade has increased by 221,200 since its low in December 2009.

Professional and Business Services gained 28,000 jobs in August. Previous month changes were July (+28,000); June (zero); May (+44,000); April (+45,000); March (+75,000);February (+44,000); January (+31,000); December (+54,000); November (+85,000); October (+40,000); September (+28,000); August (+38,000).

Professional and Business services consist of legal, accounting, management consulting, administrative and support services. In hard times, they are the first to be trimmed. In recovery, the jobs grow in these fields, as employers emerge from survival mode.

The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: June through August (+18,600); March through May(+54,667); December through February (+50,000).

Currently, there are 17.211 million professional business servicesjobs, an increase of 500,000 from a year ago (16.711 million). In December 2007, there were 18.05 million.

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 828,000 jobs since its low in September 2009.

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional and Business Services) gained 4,700 jobs in August.Previous month changes were July (+1,200); June (-7,000); May (-1,000); April (-5,400); March (+30,000); February (+22,700); January (-11,400); December (+38,100); November (+26,800); October (+27,200); September (+27,300); August (+22,500).

The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: June through August (-366); March through May(+78,667); December through February (+16,467).

Currently, there are 2.24 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 149,900 from a year ago (2.09 million). In December 2007, there were 2.55 million.

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.

Educational Services lost 1,600 jobs in August. Previous month changes were July (+13,200);June (-,900);May (-4,900); April (+6,200); March (-2,500);February (+4,000); January (-100); December (+5,400); November (+6,800); October (+25,000); September (-7,900); August (+9,700).

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: June through August (+3,567); March through May(-400); December through February (+3,100).

Currently, there are 3.215 million educational servicesjobs, an increase of 54,800 from a year ago (3.16 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 35,500 jobs in August. Previous month changes were July (+32,900);June (+18,800);May (+26,000), April (+34,000); March(+36,000);February (+36,200); January (+12,900);December (+27,900); November (+30,900); October (+42,100); September (+34,200); August (+31,300).

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: June through August (+29,067); March through May(+32,000); December through February (+25,667).

Currently, there are 16.809 million health care and social assistancejobs, an increase of 358,000 from a year ago (16.451 million).

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.232 million jobs since December 2007 (15.577 million).

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 17,000 jobs in August. Previous month changes were July (-37,000); June (-34,000); May (-46,000); April (-24,000); March (-25,000); February (-30,000); January (-14,000); December (-18,000); November (-35,000); October (+17,000); September (-136,000); August (-144,000).

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: June through August (-29,333); March through May(-31,667); December through February (-20,667).

Currently, there are 21.962 million jobs, a decrease of 619,000jobs from a year ago (22.412 million). In December 2007, there were 22.38 million.

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.201 million jobs, an decrease of 74,500 jobs from a year ago (2.276 million). In December 2007, there were 1.974 million.

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 620,700 jobs, a decrease of 31,000jobs from a year ago (651,700). In December 2007, there were 781,300.

Even with their labor reductions, the USPS reported August 5 that it had sustained a loss of $5.7 billion so far this year, with a $3.1 billion loss in the April through June period alone.

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.388 million jobs, a decrease of 9,800 from a year ago (2.378million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.691 million jobs, a decrease of 63,100 from a year ago (2.754 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.810 million jobs, a decrease of 194,000 from a year ago (8.003 million). In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.251 million jobs, a decrease of 98,200 from a year ago (6.349 million). In December 2007, there were 6.428 million.

Employment explained:

Over the last 12 months, net 360,000 jobs were filled in the Civilian labor force, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

Where are the jobs?

It comes as no surprise that the occupations with the largest job growth in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.).

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed). 

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 72,000 households from 754 sample areas across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey. This translates into about 110,000 individuals. All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,007 geographic sampling units, each totally within their state borders and 754 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States. For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods.

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.

Each month, during the week containing the 19th day, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members.

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 0.2 percent (30,000) of the 153.6 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification. This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be.

The basic concepts of employment are:

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results.

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force. They are counted separately.

Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment. He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs. Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8%.

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The president sent The Small Business Jobs and Wages Tax Cut to Congress on January 10, 2010 to try to stimulate more hiring. It focused on small businesses, because as the president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America.” The proposal included:

• Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.

• Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.

• Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.

• The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.

• There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

• There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

President Obama noted that this proposal would be worked into the various other proposals that have already advanced in Congress, such as The HIRING Act of 2010 and The Jobs for Main Street Bill of 2010.

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program (signed into law by President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008) cost much less than expected. Originally expected to exceed $300 billion, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), as of December 10, 2010 estimates the program will cost only $25 billion, freeing up more than $200 billion to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits.

Stimulus spending by state

As of Sept 9, 2011,
$491,111,904,055has been awarded
$415,638,427,027 (84.63%) has been paid out to the states

Read: How the Stimulus Is Changing America

Recession histories:

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009.

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade.

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%. 

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II.  It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. 

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently. Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

Recession peaks 1974-2011:

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later. By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2008 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:
It is interesting to recognize that in most cases, unemployment peaks roughly one-third of the timeline for unemployment to return to its “normal” rate, so we can double the number of months from the Start to the Peak to expect to arrive at an approximate return to “normal.”

We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

The next Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: September 2011 released October 7, 2011

The last Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: July 2011

Employment Situation:Economic News release

The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed. This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring.

–Current: 239.67 million; up 182,000 from last month; up 1.78 million in the last 12 months (from 237.89 million).

Employment is a moving target. In a healthy economy, around 60% of those newly eligible look for employment, so about 116,000 jobs a month or 1.4 million new jobs per year must be filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers actively looking for work.

–Current: 153.42 million; down 193,000 from last month; down 400,000 in the last 12 months (from 153.63 million).

–Employed workers: 139.30 million; down 38,000 from last month; up 305,000 in the last 12 months (138.99 million).

–Unemployed workers: 13.93 million;down 156,000 from last month; down 706,000 in the last 12 months(14.64 million).

–Civilian population not in the labor force: 86.44 million; up 374,000 from last month; up 2.18 million in the last 12 months (84.26 million).

At the start of the recession, 62.7% of the population was employed. Currently it is 58.2%.

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) was basically unchanged at 9.1 (9.09) percent due to a combination of the significant drops in both the Civilian labor force (-193,000) and those unemployed (-156,000). This is almost the same number of workers (+349,000) that are no longer in the labor force (perhaps retiring) and not replaced.

Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (does not count farm workers).

–Current: 131.19 million; up 117,000 jobs from last month; up 1.26 millionin the last 12 months (129.93), increased by 1.944 million since the February 2010 low (129.246 million).

Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 109.156 million; up 154,000 jobs from last month; up 1.805 millionin the last 12 months (107.35).

Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment.

–Current: 22.034 million; down 37,000 jobs from last month; down 547,000in the last 12 months (22.581).

Bottom Line:

July added 117,000 jobs, certainly a lot better than the 46,000 and 53,000 added in the previous two months. The job additions are net changes, counting all workers losing and leaving their jobs, leaving the 117,000 as a net gain.

If we look at the bigger picture, 1.78 million people who are eligible to be employed have been added to the Civilian non-institutional population in the last 12 months, but those who are not in or were dropped from the Civilian Labor force rose more, by 2.18 million, meaning there was a drop of 400,000 in those working or looking for work.

Unemployment has also declined by 706,000 in the last 12 months. That sounds good until we subtract the 400,000 dropped from the Civilian Labor force, leaving unemployment about equal to employment, up by 305,000 in the same period.

The total unemployment rate is 9.07 percent, arrived at by comparing Civilian labor force unemployed against the total looking for work.

The BLS also looks at nonfarm private employment by taking out government jobs and those in the agriculture industry (approx 200,000), commonly known as farm workers.

When comparing nonfarm private sector employment with the total, we see that the employment rate is 83.5 percent. Flipping that number shows us that nonfarm private sector employment is really 16.5 percent.

It is no wonder, the BLS doesn’t want us focusing on that number.

What happened to those 400,000 workers dropped from the Civilian labor force? The data doesn’t go down that far, but the ‘age wave’ theory says that since 2011 is the first year baby boomers (born 1946 to 1964) will start retiring, we can expect a massive slowdown in workforce growth, a slowdown in product sales as retirees carefully watch their money, a growth in product emphasis to products for the mature consumer, and an increasing burden on families, communities and governments as an aging population lives longer and strains entitlements and pensions, and healthcare.

The 400,000 is only the first drop of the flood of 76 million baby boomers nearing retirement.

The 58.2 percent of the Civilian labor force that is working is the lowest ratio of employed-to-unemployed civilians since January 1984.

Additionally, many of those 400,000 have combined resources under a single breadwinner as unemployment benefits and job prospects ran out, and perhaps many started a business where no one could fire them again.

Studies indicate to track progress toward a modest 8.5 percent unemployment by Election Day 2012 would require the creation of 220,000 jobs every month going forward.

One of the big problems is that workers who find jobs cannot count on keeping them for a long time. We are becoming a nation of temps. Workers may land temporary jobs advertised as permanent jobs, but dependent on the tides of business fortunes, with shifting schedules making it difficult to get a second job to supplement family income.

Another roadblock to employment that has surfaced is the job advertisements that require applicants to be currently employed before applying for a job. The intent is obvious. Companies who need to hire want to save lost production time training workers in the job.

It is an outgrowth of the flood of applications that come in every time a job is posted.

Investigations into the source of the ad writer have resulted in a uniform “it wasn’t me” response. Companies blame the agency performing the advertising. The agencies performing the hiring blame their clients intents for the wording. Each respondent said they were totally unaware that such wording was used.

When Congress returns they will consider a bill making discrimination for employment of any type including being unemployed a federal crime. It already has a version in the Senate and the House and is known as ‘Fair Employment Opportunity Act of 2011.’

The act prohibits employers and employment agencies from refusing to consider job applicants solely on the basis of unemployment. Since that discrimination is difficult to prove, employers would still covertly discriminate against the unemployed.

So on we go, approaching the end of unemployment benefits and chasing jobs that are filled internally, require exact training, geographically unavailable or are not available to those without a job. Employers will continue to squeeze more work out of their existing workers, who put up with it because they are fearful they can be replaced, and half the jobs available are in lower paying industries with variable schedules that make holding a second job difficult.

And Congress? They don’t care about the unemployed, as much as they spout about job creation. The unemployed are a relatively small constituency, who tend not to vote anyway. in both the 2008 and 2010 elections, only 35 percent of the eligible unemployed chose to vote.

An example of political manipulation of unemployment is the FAA funding bill. Just before the FAA bill left the House Transportation and Infrastructure committee, the chairman, Rep. John Mica (R-FL) attached an anti-labor provision to overturn the National Mediation Board ruling that made it easier for airport and railroad workers to unionize by counting votes actually cast.

The Republican-controlled House quickly moved for a passing vote, and dispersed to their home states for their month-long vacation, leaving 74,000 FAA workers without funding for their salaries.

Following an urgent request from the president for these workers having no income for a month, two remaining Democratic Senators passed the House bill under the “unanimous consent” (all voting members present, no objections) rule and the president signed the bill less than two hours later, allowing the workers to return to their jobs and provide for their families.

The message here was clear. Republicans are actively pro-big business, and anti-labor. Democrats are for the people and their welfare. Republicans continue to harp that the federal debt is primarily responsible for the persistent joblessness even though there has never been any evidence to support that stance.

Steps that will help American workers are funding to repair infrastructure buildings, roads and bridges, building new American industries and providing subsidies to technical schools to train workers in fields that are available now, reducing the skill mismatch gap. Republicans are against those types of funding that have no immediate benefit to big business.

The number of Americans who think that big business will take care of them is shrinking. It is evidenced by the number of people on food stamp programs. Currently, there are more than 44 million people on food stamps, a rise of 62% from October 2007. Republicans have targeted the food stamp program as a problem to be cut to reduce the deficit.

To represent the common American in Congress the rise of a third party of Independents is needed. We need enough Independents running for and winning in Congress to form their own caucus and party. Republicans have proven themselves arrogant enough to vote for bills that keep the average worker ‘in his place’ and then lie to their voter base, hoping there are enough voters with either blind loyal to their party, with short memories, or with belief in promises that have never been kept.

None of the freshman Tea Party House representatives deserve to be re-elected until they understand how to reduce our deficit without destroying our nation, without simple bull-headed adherence to a principle of debt reduction without considering consequences.

Independents are needed to provide the balance in Congress, since any one party in majority provides a danger.

My personal idea to help employment is to tie unemployment benefits to a job intern program. Encourage businesses needing help of any kind to accept interns who will work and learn on the job. Pay and health care benefits will come from unemployment funding.

Participating businesses can have tax breaks for learning interns (not just floor sweepers). Technical school education with government funding will be offered to promising interns as they learn a trade on the job.

Businesses will hire trained workers they know as needed with job performances they have witnessed. 

American workers in the past have proven themselves resilient and adaptable in the face of adversity, figuring out financial ways to care for their families by providing products and services that are better than are available today and that people are willing to pay for. They will do the same in the future.

Consumer Confidence Survey

For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:

• Consumer Confidence Index^® (short-term outlook) increased to 59.5 from last month’s 57.6 (1985=100).
• Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) decreased to 35.7 from last month’s 36.6 rating.
• Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) increased to 75.4 from last month’s level of 71.6 on American optimism.

Household Survey Data

Nonfarm payroll employment gained 117,000 jobs in July. Previous month changes were: June (+46,000); May (+53,000); April (+217,000); March (+194,000); February (+235,000); January (+68,000); December (+121,000); November (+93,000); October (+210,000); September (-24,000; Census workers -136,000; net -112,000); August (-57,000; Census workers -114,000; net +57,000); July (-66,000; Census workers -143,000; net +77,000).

Census workers peaked at 564,000 workers in May 2010.

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: May through July (+72,000); February through April(+215,333); November through January (+94,000).

Between January 2007 and December 2009, 6.9 million workers were displaced from jobs they had held for 3 years or more. By January 2010, 49 percent of them were reemployed, but not necessarily in the same industries they had worked before.

Average weekly hours and overtime

The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.6 hours;average hourly and weekly earnings increased slightly to $19.52 with weekly earnings at $655.87.

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.

*Over the past 12 months from June 2010, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.6 percent while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 3.4 percent.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) decreased by 156,000 to 8.4 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (-119,000) or could only find part-time work (+116,000).

The number of persons not in the labor force but marginally attached to the labor forceincreased by 105,000 to 2.785 million).These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks and so were not considered part of the labor force. This number is up from 2.62 million a year ago.

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workersincreased by 137,000 in the current month to1.1 million. These are persons no longer looking for work. This number has decreased by 66,000 from a year earlier.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) decreased by 104,000 to 6.185 million this month. This is more than 4.7 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.3 million). 44.4% unemployed persons are in this category or nearly 4.1% of the work force. In 2009 alone, 3.5 million were added to that number.

The average duration of unemployment has increased to 40.4 weeks. A year ago it was 33.9 weeks. At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed regain employment in 21.2 weeks, 1.3 less than last month.

The long-term unemployed number is down by 525,000 workers since the May 2010 high of 6.71 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (25.0%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (7.7%), followed up by Adult women (7.9%), Whites then Adult men (9.0%).

Establishment Survey Data

Construction gained 8,000 jobs in July. Previous month changes were June (-5,000); May (+3,000); April (+4,000); March (+5,000); February (+30,000); January (-32,000); December (-16,000); November (-2,000); October (+4,000); September (-11,000); August (+34,000) reflecting 10,000 workers on strike in July who returned to work; July (-2,000).

The quarterly average construction job datahas three-month averages at: May through July (+2,000); February through April (+13,000); November through January (-16,667).

Currently, there are 5.532 million construction jobs, an increase of 3,200 from a year ago (5.500 million). In December 2007, there were 7.5 million.

Manufacturing gained 24,000 jobs in July). Previous month changes were June (+11,000);May (-2,000); April (+28,000), March (+20,000);February (+33,000); January (+49,000);December (+14,000); November (+15,000); October (-4,000); September (-6,000); August (-26,000); July (+32,000).

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: May through July(+11,000); February through April(+27,000); November through January (+26,000).

Currently, there are 11.745 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 165,000 from a year ago (11.580 million). In December 2007, there were 13.73 million.

The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 24^th consecutive month with new orders and production modestly up. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 50.9, the third reading below 60 for 2011 and the past 12 months. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 10 are reporting growth led by Paper Products; Furniture & Related Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Transportation Equipment.

Retail trade gained 25,900 jobs in July. Previous month changes were June (+11,200);May (+2,800), April (+64,100); March (-5,600);February (-8,100); January (+27,500);December (+2,800); November(-15,600); October (+38,200); September (-3,900); August (+6,400); July (+11,100).

The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: May through July (+13,300); February through April(+16,800); November through January (+4,900).

Currently, there are 14.576 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 156,900 from a year ago (14.419 million). In December 2007, there were 15.57 million.

Employment in retail trade has increased by 228,000 since a recent low in December 2009.

Professional and Business Services gained 34,000 jobs in July. Previous month changes were June (+4,000); May (+44,000); April (+45,000); March (+75,000);February (+44,000); January (+31,000); December (+54,000); November (+85,000); October (+40,000); September (+28,000); August (+38,000); July (-5,000).

This industry has added 246,000 jobs since the recent low in March 2010.

Professional and Business services consist of legal, accounting, management consulting, administrative and support services. In hard times, they are the first to be trimmed. In recovery, the jobs grow in these fields, as employers emerge from survival mode.

The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: May through July(+27,333); February through April(+54,667); November through January (+56,667).

Currently, there are 17.193 million professional business servicesjobs, an increase of 512,000 from a year ago (16.681 million). In December 2007, there were 18.05 million.

This is one of the largest job growth fields.

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional and Business Services) gained 300 jobs in July.Previous month changes were June (-11,600); May (-1,000); April (-5,400); March (+30,000); February (+22,700); January (-11,400); December (+38,100); November (+26,800); October (+27,200); September (+27,300); August (+22,500); July (-6,700).

The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: May through July (-4,100); February through April(+15,767); November through January (+17,833).

Currently, there are 2.230 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 156,600 from a year ago (2.073 million). In December 2007, there were 2.56 million.

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.

Educational Services gained 1,600 jobs in July. Previous month changes were June (-1,400);May (-4,900); April (+6,200); March (-2,500);February (+4,000); January (-100); December (+5,400); November (+6,800); October (+25,000); September (-7,900); August (+9,700); July (-1,600).

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: May through July(-1,567); February through April(+25,667); November through January (+4,033).

Currently, there are 3.204 million educational servicesjobs, an increase of 49,700 from a year ago (3.155 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 36,700 jobs in July. Previous month changes were June (+12,600);May (+26,000), April (+34,000); March(+36,000);February (+36,200); January (+12,900);December (+27,900); November (+30,900); October (+42,100); September (+34,200); August (+31,300); July (+27,800).

Health care employment grew by 31,000 in July. Ambulatory health care services and hospitals each added 14,000 jobs over the month. Over the past 12 months, health care employment has grown by 299,000.

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: May through July(+25,100); February through April(+35,400); November through January (+23,900).

This is one of the largest job growth fields.

Currently, there are 16.771 million health care and social assistancejobs, an increase of 355,000 from a year ago (16.416 million). In December 2007, there were 15.58 million.

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 37,000 jobs in July. Previous month changes were June (-34,000); May (-46,000); April (-24,000); March (-25,000); February (-30,000); January (-14,000); December (-18,000); November (-35,000); October (+17,000); September (-136,000); August (-144,000); July (-183,000).

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: May through July(-39,000); February through April(-20,667); November through January (-22,333).

Currently, there are 22.034 million jobs, a decrease of 547,000jobs from a year ago (22.581 million). In December 2007, there were 22.38 million.Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.207 million jobs, an decrease of 181,000 jobs from a year ago (2.388 million). In December 2007, there were 1.97 million.

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 626,600 jobs, a decrease of 25,800jobs from a year ago (652,400). In December 2007, there were 781,300.

Even with their labor reductions, the USPS reported August 5 that it had sustained a loss of $5.7 billion so far this year, with a $3.1 billion loss in the April through June period alone.

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.390 million jobs, a decrease of 3,500 from a year ago (2.393million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.674 million jobs, a decrease of 86,700 from a year ago (2.761 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.

Employment in state government decreased by 23,000 over the month. The decline was almost entirely due to the partial government shutdown in Minnesota.

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.874 million jobs, a decrease of 156,000 from a year ago (8.03 million). In December 2007, there were 8.05 million.

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.262 million jobs, a decrease of 93,700 from a year ago (6.356 million). In December 2007, there were 6.43 million.

Employment explained

To restore employment to the 5.5% level, 5.5 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.

The government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.

To get to the 8% level, 1.67 million workers need jobs. 12.258 million workers will still be unemployed under the new standard.

The Civilian labor force has decreased in the past 12 months by 400,000, but normally grows at the rate of 1.5 million new workers per year. At 8%, 120,000 workers each year will be added to the unemployed, driving that number constantly higher.

Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries and local jobs.

Our recession history of unemployment: 

Over the last 12 months, net 305,000 jobs were filled in the Civilian labor force, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

Where are the jobs?

It comes as no surprise that the occupations with the largest job growth in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.).

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed). 

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 72,000 households from 754 sample areas across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey. This translates into about 110,000 individuals. All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,007 geographic sampling units, each totally within their state borders and 754 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States. For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods.

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.

Each month, during the week containing the 19th day, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members.

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 0.2 percent (30,000) of the 153.23 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification. This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be.

The basic concepts of employment are:

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results.

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force. They are counted separately.

Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment. He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs. Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8%.

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The president sent The Small Business Jobs and Wages Tax Cut to Congress on January 10, 2010 to try to stimulate more hiring. It focused on small businesses, because as the president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America.” The proposal included:

• Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.

• Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.

• Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.

• The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.

• There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

• There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

President Obama noted that this proposal would be worked into the various other proposals that have already advanced in Congress, such as The HIRING Act of 2010 and The Jobs for Main Street Bill of 2010.

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program (signed into law by President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008) cost much less than expected. Originally expected to exceed $300 billion, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), as of December 10, 2010 estimates the program will cost only $25 billion, freeing up more than $200 billion to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits.

Stimulus spending by state

As of Jun 29, 2011,
$486,897,030,284has been awarded
$405,987,653,142 (83.38%) has been paid out to the states

Read: How the Stimulus Is Changing America

Recession histories:

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009.

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade.

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%. 

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II.  It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. 

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently. Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

Recession peaks 1974-2011:

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later. By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2008 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:
It is interesting to recognize that in most cases, unemployment peaks roughly one-third of the timeline for unemployment to return to its “normal” rate, so we can double the number of months from the Start to the Peak to expect to arrive at an approximate return to “normal.”

We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

The next Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: August 2011 released September 2, 2011

The last Economic Jobs report will be found at:
Economic Picture: June 2011

The special election became a referendum on Medicare as the district’s seniors balked at the GOP plan to cut Medicare. The district has been a Republican stronghold for years, but Corwin saw her early lead dissolve when she came out in favor of House Budget Chairman Rep. Paul Ryan’s (R-Wis) Republican budget plan that would cut billions from Medicare.

Hochul cast herself as the protector of Medicare for her district with a large population over 55. She said, “We cannot balance our budget on the backs of our seniors.”

It is no secret that our government process is broken. To paraphrase a newly elected Tea Partyer, each legislator is 1 / (435 congressmen + 100 senators + 1 president + 9 supreme court judges) or 1 / 545 of the legislative process.

Almost no matter what, each side comes up with a position on each issue and tries to get it passed. If a Democratic solution comes to a vote in the House, it is defeated by lock-step voting ordered by the central Republican caucus. If a Republican solution comes to a vote in the Senate, it is defeated by lock-step voting dictated by the Democratic caucus. It does not matter to the legislators whether there is a good solution for the American people, it only matters that the other side not get any credit.

A perfect example is Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s narrow focus as he has said that ensuring Obama is a one-term president is his “top political priority.”

The focus is never on the benefit to the American people except to win their votes with promises that will not be kept in order to gain control of the government. And the newly elected Tea Party candidates are falling right into line.

It would be interesting to abolish all parties and outlaw all caucuses and allow candidates to run on their reputation and govern transparently on a bill’s own merits.

Employment Situation: Economic News release

The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed. This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring.

–Current: 239.0 million; up 149,000 from last month; up 1.84 million in the last 12 months (from 237.16 million).

Employment is a moving target. In a healthy economy, around 60% of those newly eligible look for employment, so about 125,000 jobs a month or 1.5 million new jobs per year must be filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers actively looking for work.

–Current: 153.4 million; up 160,000 from last month; down 489,000 in the last 12 months (from 153.9 million).

–Employed workers: 139.86 million; up 291,000 from last month; up 912,000 in the last 12 months (138.95 million).

–Unemployed workers: 13.54 million; down 131,000 from last month; down 1.4 million in the last 12 months (14.94 million).

–Civilian population not in the labor force: 85.594 million; down 11,000 from last month; up 2.33 million in the last 12 months (83.264 million).

At the start of the recession, 63.3% of the population was employed. Currently it is 58.5%.

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) dropped to 8.8 percent (due to a combination of a drop in the Civilian labor force and the number of employed going up coupled with the number of unemployed going down).

Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (not counting farm workers).

–Current: 130.74 million; up 216,000 jobs from last month; up 1.3 million in the last 12 months (129.44).

Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 108.57 million; up 230,000 jobs from last month; up 1.656 million in the last 12 months (106.92).

Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment.

–Current: 22.167 million; down 14,000 jobs from last month; down 356,000 in the last 12 months (22.522).

Bottom Line:

Employment in the nonfarm area increased by another 216,000 in March, building on the 194,000 job increase last month, and driving the unemployment rate down another notch to 8.8%. Employment gained in the professional and business services, led by temporary services hiring. Job gains were also experienced in the health care, manufacturing and mining industries. As the vacation season approaches, increases were seen in the leisure and hospitality areas as well.

Over the last 12 months, health care has added 283,000 jobs. Employment in manufacturing of durable goods has risen by 243,000 since its low in December 2009.

Local government employment continues to trend downward due to budget constraints. The sector has lost 416,000 jobs since its peak in September 2008.

Since the federal and local governments are all shedding jobs to balance their budgets, we can expect local volunteer efforts to pick up the slack where they can.

The Civilian labor force has decreased by 489,000 in the last 12 months while those who were dropped from the labor force increased by 2.33 million over that same period. The 12-month increase of 1.656 million jobs in private sector employment made headway on the unemployment rate. .

Workers drop from the work force for a number of reasons including the expiration of jobless benefits and losing confidence and giving up looking for work, as well as the conversion of workers to employers as they start their own businesses. As their business grows, they will hire workers from the labor force.

The recovery of the economy is still causing businesses to conserve cash and hold back on hiring. Employers are cautiously optimistic in hiring additional help. The increases in temporary staffing is a positive indication in this area.

 Consumer Confidence Survey

For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:

• Consumer Confidence Index^® (short-term outlook) decreased to 63.4 from last month’s 72.0 (1985=100).
• Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) increased to 36.9 from last month’s 33.8 rating.
• Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) decreased to 81.1 from last month’s level of 97.5.

 Household Survey Data

Nonfarm payroll employment gained 216,000 jobs in March. Previous month changes were: February (+194,000); January (+68,000); December (+121,000); November (+93,000); October (+210,000); September (-24,000; Census workers -136,000; net -112,000); August (-57,000; Census workers -114,000; net +57,000); July (-66,000; Census workers -143,000; net +77,000); June (-175,000; Census workers -225,000; net +50,000); May (+433,000; Census workers +411,000; net +22,000); April (+313,000); March (+208,000).

Census workers peaked in May at 564,000 workers.

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+159,333); October through December (+141,333); July through September (-7,333).

Between January 2007 and December 2009, 6.9 million workers were displaced from jobs they had held for 3 years or more. By January 2010, 49 percent of them were reemployed, but not necessarily in the same industries they had worked before.

Average weekly hours and overtime

The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.6 hours; average hourly and weekly earnings decreased slightly to $19.30 with weekly earnings at $648.48.

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 93,000 to 8.43 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (decreased by 35,000) or could only find part-time work (decreased by 83,000).

The number of persons marginally attached to the labor force decreased by 296,000 to 2.43 million. These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks and so were not considered part of the labor force. This number is down from 2.255 million a year ago.

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workers decreased by 99,000 in the current month to 921,000. These are persons no longer looking for work.

This number has decreased by 73,000 from a year earlier.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) increased by 129,000 to 6.1 million this month. This is nearly 4.7 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.3 million). In 2009 alone, 3.5 million were added to that number. 45.5% unemployed persons are in this category or nearly 4% of the work force.

The average duration of unemployment is 39.0 weeks. A year ago it was 31.7 weeks. At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed gain employment in 21.7 weeks.

The long-term unemployed number is down by 588,000 workers since the May 2010 high of 6.7 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (24.5%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (7.1%), followed up by Adult women (7.7%), Whites then Adult men (8.6%).

Establishment Survey Data

Construction lost 1,000 jobs in March. Previous month changes were February (+30,000); January (-32,000); December (-16,000); November (-2,000); October (+4,000); September (-11,000); August (+34,000) reflecting 10,000 workers on strike in July who returned to work; July (-2,000); June (-21,000); May (-29,000); April (+22,000); March (+26,000).

The quarterly average construction job data has three-month averages at: January through March (-1,000); October through December (-4,667); July through September (+7,000).

Currently, there are 5.514 million construction jobs, a decrease of 36,000 from a year ago (5.55 million). In December 2007, there were 7.5 million.

Manufacturing gained 17,000 jobs in March. Previous month changes were February (+33,000); January (+49,000); December (+14,000); November (+15,000); October (-4,000); September (-6,000); August (-26,000); July (+32,000); June (+13,000); May (+39,000); April (+38,000); March (+17,000).

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+33,000); October through December (+8,333); July through September (+0).

Currently, there are 11.667 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 196,000 from a year ago (11.471 million). In December 2007, there were 13.726 million.

The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 20^th consecutive month led by new orders in apparel, leather products and transportation equipment, and the overall economy grew for the 22^th consecutive month, driven mainly by exports. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 61.4 in January. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

Of the 18 manufaturing industries, almost all reported growth in new orders, production and employment. Aluminum led commodities up in price again this month.

Retail trade gained 17,700 jobs in March. Previous month changes were February (-8,100); January (+27,500); December (+2,800); November(-15,600); October (+38,200); September (-3,900); August (+6,400); July (+11,100); June (-20,500); May (-5,800); April (+14,400); March (+22,800).

The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+12,367); October through December (+13,567); July through September (+4,533).

Currently, there are 14.487 million retail trade jobs, a decrease of 79,200 from a year ago (14.408 million). In December 2007, there were 15.57 million.

Professional Business Services gained 78,000 jobs in March. Previous month changes were February (+44,000); January (+31,000); December (+54,000); November (+85,000); October (+40,000); September (+28,000); August (+38,000); July (-5,000); June (+33,000); May (+26,000); April (+70,000); March (+1,000).

Professional and business services consist of legal, accounting, management consulting, administrative and support services. In hard times, they are the first to be trimmed. In recovery, the jobs grow in these fields, as employers emerge from survival mode.

The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+51,000); October through December (+59,667); July through September (+20,333).

Currently, there are 17.075 million professional business services jobs, an increase of 529,000 from a year ago (16.546 million). In December 2007, there were 18.05 million.

This is one of the largest job growth fields.

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional Business Services) gained 28,800 jobs in March. Previous month changes were February (+22,700); January (-11,400); December (+38,100); November (+26,800); October (+27,200); September (+27,300); August (+22,500); July (-6,700); June (+11,200); May (+30,400); April (+23,300); March (+32,300).

The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+13,367); October through December (+30,700); July through September (+14,367).

Currently, there are 2.257 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 251,400 from a year ago (2.006 million). In December 2007, there were 2.56 million.

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.

Educational Services gained 1,400 jobs in March. Previous month changes were February (+4,000); January (-100); December (+5,400); November (+6,800); October (+25,000); September (-7,900); August (+9,700); July (-1,600); June (+7,500); May (+5,300); April (+3,100); March (+9,300).

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+1,767); October through December (+12,400); July through September (+66,667).

Currently, there are 3.2 million educational services jobs, an increase of 76,200 from a year ago (3.13 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 44,500 jobs in March. Previous month changes were February (+36,200); January (+12,900); December (+27,900); November (+30,900); October (+42,100); September (+34,200); August (+31,300); July (+27,800); June (+22,600); May (+18,800); April (+25,400); March (+39,200).

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: January through March (+31,200); October through December (+33,633); July through September (+31,100).

This is one of the largest job growth fields.

Currently, there are 16.68 million health care and social assistance jobs, an increase of 353,300 from a year ago (16.32 million). In December 2007, there were 15.58 million.

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 14,000 jobs in March. Previous month changes were February (-30,000); January (-14,000); December (-18,000); November (-35,000); October (+17,000); September (-136,000); August (-144,000); July (-183,000); June (-236,000); May (+381,000); April (+72,000); March (+50,000).

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: January through March (-19,333); October through December (-12,000); July through September (-154,333 – end of Census).

Currently, there are 22.166 million jobs, a decrease of 257,000 jobs from a year ago (22.522 million). In December 2007, there were 22.38 million.

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.22 million jobs, an decrease of 40,200 jobs from a year ago (2.26 million). In December 2007, there were 1.97 million.

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 630,700 jobs, a decrease of 34,200 jobs from a year ago (664,900). In December 2007, there were 781,300.

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.39 million jobs, an increase of 29,700 from a year ago (2.36 million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.73 million jobs, a decrease of 53,000 from a year ago (2.78 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.91 million jobs, a decrease of 151,400 from a year ago (8.06 million). In December 2007, there were 8.05 million.

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.29 million jobs, a decrease of 107,800 from a year ago (6.40 million). In December 2007, there were 6.43 million.

Employment explained

To restore employment to the 5.5% level of 2008, 5.1 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.

The government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.

To restore employment to the 8% level, 1.27 million workers need jobs. 12.27 million workers will still be unemployed under the new standard.

The Civilian labor force normally grows at the rate of 1.5 million new workers per year. At 8%, 120,000 workers each year will be added to the unemployed, driving that number constantly higher. Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries.

Our recession history of unemployment:

Over the last 12 months, 912,000 jobs were filled, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%..

Where are the jobs?

It comes as no surprise that the occupations with the largest job growth in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.).

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 60,000 households across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey. This translates into about 110,000 individuals. All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,025 geographic sampling units. 824 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States.  For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods.

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.

Each month, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members.

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 290,000 of the 153.4 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification. This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be.

The basic concepts of employment are:

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results. 

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force.  They are counted separately. 

Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment. He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs. Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8+%.

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The president sent The Small Business Jobs and Wages Tax Cut to Congress on January 10, 2010 to try to stimulate more hiring. It focused on small businesses, because as the president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America.” The proposal included:

• Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
• Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
• Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.

• The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
• There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

• There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

President Obama noted that this proposal would be worked into the various other proposals that have already advanced in Congress, such as The HIRING Act of 2010 and  The Jobs for Main Street Bill of 2010.

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program is costing less with fewer losses than expected, as much as $200 billion has been freed up to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits.

Stimulus spending by state

As of March 31, 2011,
$479,405,692,021 has been awarded
$373,590,005,256 (77.9%) has been paid out to the states

Read: How the Stimulus Is Changing America

Recession histories:

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009.

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade.

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%. 

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II.  It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak. 

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently.  Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

Recession peaks 1974-2011:

 Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later.  By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2008 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:
It is interesting to recognize that in most cases, unemployment peaks roughly one-third of the timeline for unemployment to return to its “normal” rate, so we can double the number of months from the Start to the Peak to expect to arrive at an approximate return to “normal.”

We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

The country is in the midst of talking about reform; Medicare reform, healthcare reform, Social Security reform, and in general, entitlement reform.

What exactly is an entitlement? An entitlement is a guarantee of access to benefits based on established rights or by legislation. The ones we are most familiar with are Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

For fiscal year 2010, Social Security and Social insurance taxes contributed $865 billion or 40% of the $2.162 trillion government income. Individual income taxes contributed $899 billion or 42% of the government’s income.

For fiscal year 2010, Social Security payments amounted to $701 billion or 20% of the $3.456 trillion government expenses. Medicare and Medicaid accounted for $793 billion or 23% of the government’s expenses while other mandatory expenses accounted for $416 billion or 12% of the government’s expenses. The total expenditure for entitlements was about $1.9 trillion.

Using simple math, the government took in nearly $1.3 trillion less than it spent.

As people live longer, the number of workers supporting the number of retirees continues to decline, especially as the baby boomers (born 1946 to 1964) attain retirement age and nearly double from 2010 to 2030.

So how do we fix this?

The ways of fixing it would be different under a king or dictator than under a democracy. Insulting the electorate in a democracy is the surest way to the exit door for elected officials so they are trying very hard to solve the problem without being associated with an unpopular view.

Democrats believed that the economic crisis made the electorate want security so they created large public programs, like the stimulus bill to save the economy, the healthcare law where all will be covered, and other expansions of government programs.

Republicans capitalized on runaway government and its runaway debt, and they ran for office on the promises of stopping the economic bleeding and reversing the spending binge.

The common problem is how to cut government spending while growing the economy. The national debt as of December 2010 is roughly $14 trillion.

Looking at the sheer size and potential horror of the problem causes many of us to freeze like a deer in the headlights.

What is the horror? What if the government was forced to cancel all entitlement programs because it didn’t have the money? The annual savings would be roughly the $1.9 trillion less the $865 billion which would no longer be returned as taxes, but instead millions of people would be left homeless, unable to pay either mortgage or rent, exploding public housing and collapsing the real estate market, making the most recent one look trivial. Millions of people would be left without paid medical care, forcing an explosion of federal medical facilities. Millions would be without money for food, exploding the use of federal food stamps and other assistance. So much for the $1.9 trillion which would be spent on these assisted programs and would make us not only a socialist state but a welfare state.

We all know entitlements must be reformed (as long as they don’t cut any of my benefits), and therein lies the problem.

Entitlement cutting is enormously unpopular with voters. But voters want real action to restrain spending, and entitlements are the only place that will make any real difference.

So what to do?

Republicans have come up with a strategy that will leave entitlements alone for seniors, at a cost to younger workers. Medicare would be transformed into a system of vouchers that would be used to pay for approved insurance coverage. The system would provide roughly the same coverage as for Medicare seniors, and would cause Medicare costs to grow more slowly and hopefully make consumers more cost conscious. Over time, such reform would yield enormous savings.

It is only a single step of cutting back now to help our grandchildren.

But will the voters go for it?

Obama said his plan was a balance between deficit reduction pain and investment for growth. The plan shows the deficit rising to $1.645 trillion in fiscal 2011, then falling sharply to $1.101 trillion in 2012, just in time for the presidential election.

It only provided a general guide on how to tackle entitlement outlays that include the Social Security and Medicare programs responsible for huge government spending.

“A decade of deficits, compounded by the effects of the recession and the steps we had to take to break it … has put us on an unsustainable course.”

This trend would trim the deficit as a share of the U.S. economy from 10.9 percent this year to 3.2 percent by 2015, keeping the pledge Obama made to his Group of 20 developing nation partners to cut the deficit in half by 2013.

The budget shows the deficit slowing the rate at which the U.S. adds to its debt, stabilizing at about 3 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) from 2015 onward.

The goal is to grow GDP and shrink the debt as a percentage of it. The nation’s debt is currently 72 percent of GDP and costs an additional 20 percent in interest charges. It is estimated that the debt will peak at 77 percent of GDP in 2015 before starting to recede.

An example would be a family with net income of $50,000 per year having debts of $36,000 and interest payments of $600 per month just to stay in place. No one will issue them more credit. There are two ways out of the hole–cut expenses and increase income.

And just like the family, the government will have to cut non-essential programs and excess assets to economize, while still providing services to Americans so that they can have jobs, get to jobs and work at jobs to build the nation’s income or GDP.

The fiscal year begins on October 1 each year, and the budget must be finalized by then (sometimes it runs a little late). The president’s budget for this year is still bogged down in bipartisan politics, and the only thing keeping the government running is a stop-gap measure to continue funding, which expires March 4.

It is halfway through the year, and the current budget is not yet approved. Who are these guys?

Seven months of disagreements, disputes, debates, discord and discussion will now ensue between Congressional parties, mostly in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives, whose members were largely elected on deep cut management of federal spending.

Members of both political parties, the president and American voters all want the same thing–spending within our means. That will require cooperation, even from those dedicated to run Obama out of office at any cost.

Americans do not want a spending freeze at unsustainable levels. Most of all Americans want to see dramatic progress in spending levels and understand what they are giving up.

It is not an easy path.

For fiscal year 2010, the budget proposal was $3.6 trillion. Of that amount, 60 percent went to Defense (20 percent; $715 billion), Social Security (20 percent; $708 billion), and Healthcare (Medicare, Medicaid and CHIP [Children's Health Program]; $753 billion).

What would you cut?

See The Budget.

As a note, the 2010 count includes legal and illegal immigrants as well as citizens who call the U.S. their home.

Compared to other countries in rough percentage terms over the last ten years, Canada’s population grew by 10 percent, France and England increased by 5 percent, Japan stayed constant, and Germany decreased.

Although China grew by only 6 percent, their population grew to 1.3 billion or 20 percent of the world population. One in five of the people of the world now live in China.

Big shift U.S. population increases per 2010 Census

Michigan (-0.6)(-54K) was the only state to lose population.

In the previous census, these states were also big percentage increases with Nevada (66.3), Arizona (40.0), Utah (29.6), Idaho (28.5), Texas (22.8), Colorado (30.6), North Carolina (21.4), South Carolina (15.1), Georgia (26.4), and Florida (23.5).

This shows a big shift in population over the last twenty years to the Southeast and the West.

So why is the Census important and how does that affect our lives?

We get Representation:

There are 435 seats in the House of Representatives that are reapportioned among states with each new Census according to population. The goal is an even distribution of voting citizens across all states. In other words, the total population is divided by 435, or 710,767 as a goal for the size of a congressional legislative district starting in 2013.

From the 2000 Census, the average district population was 646,946 starting in 2003. States with population increases add new districts, and those with population decreases lose districts. And there are seven states whose population only entitle them to the minimum single district because they don’t have enough people living there for more.

District Gains:

Texas (+4), Florida (+2); Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington (+1) each.

All but one of the gaining states (Washington) were won by Republicans in November 2010.

District Losses:

New York and Ohio (-2) each; Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania (-1) each.

Seven of the losing states were won by Republicans in November 2010.

Knowing where people live in the country allows the federal government to channel funding down to the states in a fair manner. It would be no fun if some states got all the road and bridge repairs, all the airports, all the post offices, all the disaster and college funding and all the other things the government pays for. Knowing where people live in the state allows the state to fairly distribute the federal money it receives to the cities and towns so schools can stay open and garbage can be collected.

And that all comes from the Census.

Congress:

When the 435 congressional districts meet in Washington, they generally discuss and act on national matters and enact national laws. That representation tries to insure that every person in the country is fairly spoken for.

Each district is represented by a member of a political party, mostly Republicans and Democrats. They vote the way their party leadership tells them to vote or how they think their district will want them to vote. When there are more Republicans in the 435 seats, things go the way the Republican leadership wants. When there are more Democrats, it goes their way. The 435 all come up for reelection every even-numbered year, and they are in their job for only two years at a time.

Electoral College

Every four years, a president is elected by the Electoral College. The Electoral College is made up of representatives of our congressional representatives. There are 535 members; the number of House representatives in the state plus the two Senators from each state.

While national elections focus mainly on electing friendly party representatives for each district and redrawing districts to their advantage, the Electoral College, in most cases, is a state-by-state, all-or-nothing voting system that protects the value of the individual state by choosing its own method of electing members without interference from other states or national parties.

The job of the Electoral College is to choose the most powerful executive leader in the world across the expanse of the nation by ignoring population concentrations, contested elections and voter turnout in other states.

The Electoral College was never meant to reflect the national popular will. It was designed to vote the individual state’s choice for the presidency. It gives as much weight to rural areas as urban centers. It enhances the status of minority groups concentrated in states with large electoral vote counts. It prevents nationalization of the government and enhances the collective opinion of the individual states. It promotes cohesion of the nation by requiring a distribution of popular support to elect.

Redistricting:

As the voting population moves South and West, new legislative districts are formed in those states to keep the population similar in all districts across the country. Constitutional law says that each district must contain approximately the same number of voters.

When a state adds or loses districts, the entire state population must be redistricted by drawing new maps to include similar populations in all districts.

The task of redistricting a state is a happy opportunity for the majority party in a state. The ruling party has the final vote (sometimes subject to governor approval) on new district lines. Shrewd politicians make every effort to redraw district lines so voters favorable to them will carry elections in all districts. And they can’t help being creative to reduce the competition.

Computer-generated simulations have made this job a lot easier and much more effective.

In June 2006 the Supreme Court issued an opinion that allowed states to redistrict at any time.

Some favored techniques are:

• “packing” where district lines are drawn to pack political opposition voters into as few districts as possible
• “cracking” or fragmenting the opposition voters thinly out into different districts so their votes become minimized or ineffective
• “kidnapping” involves redrawing the district so two strong opposition candidates reside in the same district and must run against each other. No matter who wins, one strong candidate is eliminated (see “Gerrymandering” > In Pennsylvania… further down on this page)
• “spoiler effect” provides candidates that cannot win, but draw votes away from contenders
• spreading the opposition voters thinly around a large district, causing campaign coverage expenses as high as possible for opposition candidates attempting to cover wide areas.

The purpose for the ruling party is to have as many “wasted votes“ as possible.

States such as California, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and Texas have already reduced competition by skewing their district maps to prefer ruling party favorites so that competition for congressional House seats has been virtually eliminated.

There are still 36 states where the state legislature has the primary responsibility to create a redistricting plan. In many cases, this is subject to approval by the state governor. Seven states (Arizona, California, Hawaii. Idaho, Minnesota, New Jersey, Washington) use either a bipartisan or independent commission to create a plan. Three states (Florida, Iowa, Maine) use independent commissions to propose a plan which must be approved by the legislature.

Although the November 2010 elections put Republicans in full control of 35 state legislatures, their ability to redistrict in their favor is somewhat limited by population location (all districts must have roughly the same population and form one enclosed figure) and the 1965 Voting Rights Act which protects ethnic minorities (race or color) from voter bias.

There will still be redistricting plans that wind up in the courts.

“Gerrymandering” is the setting of electoral boundaries to establish political advantage. Some past examples are :

California’s 23^rd congressional district is an example of the packing style of districting. It is moderately to heavily democratic and confined to a narrow strip of coast so thin it is referred to as “the district that disappears at high tide.”

Illinois’s 4th congressional district is drawn like a pair of earmuffs “packing” two Hispanic areas (Puerto Rican in the north, Mexican in the south) while remaining connected (legal requirement) by narrowly tracing a small portion of Interstate 294. It completely surrounds the Illinois 7^th congressional district.

North Carolina’s 12^th congressional district is an example of “packing” a 64 percent African-American liberal majority into a single district by following Interstate 85 almost exactly in a long and thin and in some points no wider than a single highway lane. The boundaries were contested in the Supreme Court three times and redrawn. The current version has a small plurality of whites.

In Pennsylvania, the Republican-controlled state legislature used gerrymandering to defeat Democrat Frank Mascara representing the 20^th congressional district. A large portion of his district was moved into the newly-drawn 12^th congressional district including most of his neighborhood. The district split streets down the middle to form a thin tendril that ended at his house, but not where he parked his car. Mascara was “kidnapped” into the 12^th district and had to run there against another strong Democrat. He was defeated, but whoever won, Republicans eliminated a strong opposition candidate.

In Texas, the Republican majority redistricted the state in 2003, diluting the voting power of the heavily Democratic Travis County, Texas by “cracking” or distributing the voters out to more Republican districts.

The United States Supreme Court in 2006 upheld most of the Texas congressional district map engineered by former House Majority Leader Tom DeLay. The decision allowed state legislatures to redraw districts as many times as they like and not just after the Census. This allows them to protect their political parties’ standing and number of seats, as long as they don’t harm racial and ethnic minority groups voting influence.

Ed.Note: Former U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, once considered among the nation’s most powerful and feared lawmakers, representing Texas’ 22^nd congressional district from 1984-2006 was found guilty of money laundering for campaign financing, on a felony conspiracy charge to move $190,000 in corporate donations to Republican candidates in the Texas State Legislature in 2002.   He was sentenced to three years in prison for the scheme to influence elections that already cost him his job, leadership post and millions of dollars in legal fees.

How they work it:

In districts where the ruling political party is in the voting minority, districts can be redrawn to make the loyal voters the slight majority for most districts; an attempt to insure continuing congressional majority domination for the state, and the casting of all the state’s electoral votes for the presidential candidate of the ruling party’s choice.

Since any challenging candidates have little or no chance of winning, voter turnout diminishes to the point where the dominant party may run uncontested. The “wasted vote” ploy succeeds and the American citizen loses his ballot.

Partisans drawing district lines, however, face challenges between protection of their incumbents and maximizing their party’s campaign potential. Many times, the only way to increase their party’s campaign potential is to shift boundaries so reliable partisans are moved out of their districts, cutting margins of safety for incumbents, but making elections more competitive. Incumbents, finding new voters in the district, must establish their personal relationships with them if they hope to get reelected.

As a note, it has been found that when commissions or courts draw district boundaries, elections are more competitive compared to those drawn by legislatures. In 1992, statistical analysis showed that incumbents benefited from bipartisan redistricting which produced reduced competition.

How it has worked:

Favorable redistricting did not come easily. After the 1990 Census, 20 states had suits in state courts concerning redistricting plans; 28 states had suits in federal court. Eleven states had suits in both state and federal courts on the same district plan. New York had cases in four different federal courts and three different state courts.

Republicans under the leadership of House Minority Whip Newt Gingrich worked for 10 years setting up state legislatures as a basis for the 1994 Republican sweep of the congressional House of Representatives.

Gingrich worked with state party chairmen to find candidates who could win congressional districts and were aligned with favorable state and district issues such as lower business taxes, term limits, welfare reform, pro-choice and clean energy. These candidates received the most party funding, and many won their elections.

The Republican Revolution started in the 1992 elections when Republicans gained 9 congressional seats, leaving the balance at 258D-176R (+1 Independent), but it really delivered the message in the 1994 elections when Republicans gained 52 congressional seats and won two special elections, leaving the House balance at 230R-204D (+1 Independent).

Nearly one-third of those defeated by Republicans had been in office only for one term. Republicans carried the country with less than a 7 percent majority.

The “Republican Revolution of 1994″ was caused mainly by national voter discontent who showed their displeasure of Democrats, the issues they supported and their alleged corruption. Republicans built on the general voter perception that the House Democratic leadership was corrupt.

Issues causing dissatisfaction with the president was Clinton’s push for massive healthcare reforms and the 1993 tax hikes.

Foretelling the Democratic trouncing were off-year election losses of heavily Democratic mayoralties (Jersey City, Los Angeles, New York) state governorships (New Jersey, Virginia), and special elections (one Texas Senate and two House).

The Southern response to Supreme Court rulings to redraw district boundaries allowed the Southern states to draw maps that concentrated black voters in districts surrounded by white voter districts, increasing by far the white Republican dominance in those districts and those states.

As a result, Republicans swept the South, formerly a Democratic haven, at congressional and statewide levels, and in gubernatorial and special elections. It remains a Republican stronghold today.

Republicans also gained 3 out of the 7 new districts in California, 2 out of the 4 new districts in Florida and 2 out of the 3 new districts in Texas.

The Republican Revolution of 1994 was based on the preparation by the minority party, choosing candidates who could win, with platforms everyone favored, redistricting and shifting blocs of voters, waiting for the majority party to alienate the voters.

And that all came from the Census forming a way for voters to vent their displeasure at how the country was being run.

Gaining and holding:

There are two major parts to control – gaining it and holding it. In the 1996 elections, Democrats made gains in 13 states, while Republicans made gains in only 9. Republicans lost the popular vote, as well as 9 of the 54 seats they had held for only one term. Republicans were still the ruling party in Congress, but Democrat Bill Clinton was elected for a second term as president with 379 Electoral College votes (270 votes elect) and 49 percent of the popular vote.

Leading up to the 1998 elections, Republicans again tried the corrupt leadership ploy against the president for his embarrassing affair with Monica Lewinsky. Newt Gingrich, now House speaker, was in the lead of the attacks. After all, it had worked in 1994.  But voters turned against the Republicans, and another 5 (net) House seats were lost.

In Florida, in the worst possible outcome of redistricting and “wasted votes,” there were only 6 races for 23 districts; 12 Republicans and 5 Democrats ran unopposed. These 17 Florida districts had their right to vote virtually eliminated. They now lived in “why bother” districts.

After the election loss, the Republicans in Congress turned against Newt Gingrich. He resigned his House seat, took his pension and went home. This was his legacy.

The 2000 Census saw Arizona, Florida, Georgia and Texas gain two congressional districts each. The rush to California had abated, and that state only gained one district but still remained the largest state with 53 districts. Republicans lost another 5 seats in California with no wins. They lost a total of 2 (net) seats in the election, were hanging on to a majority by only 9 seats and won the popular vote by only 340,000, or some 0.3% out of 93 million votes.

Florida had only 6 unopposed races. This was the last election based on the 1990 census and Republican George W. Bush from Texas was elected President.

The 2002 elections were the first election using the reapportionment from the 2000 Census. Voters were still moving South and West with two districts each added to Florida, Georgia, Texas and Arizona. Republicans gained back 8 seats to reinforce their thin majority, but mostly on national solidarity after the September 11, 2001 attacks on New York City. Most of the states saw no net change. Republicans won California’s new district 21 and the two new districts in Texas. Florida had 8 unopposed races out of their 25 districts.

In the 2004 elections, Republicans gained 5 seats in Texas, making it a solidly Republican state, with control over 21 out of 32 districts. Florida had 9 unopposed races. The partisan image of the country remained mostly red.

Voter Anger Builds:

By 2006, voters were fed up with the president and the Republican Congress. Democratic candidates fed the country’s dissatisfied voters. They campaigned against the Iraq War during its bloodiest phase. They called up fears that the country was about to fall into recession in spite of the low 4.5 percent unemployment rate which consisted of low-paying occupations. They charged that the high-paying jobs were being outsourced by big business to countries where labor was cheap. They claimed the ranks of the uninsured and those in poverty were growing, and that the anemic government response to help the powerless victims of Hurricane Katrina (2005) was too weak and too late.

The Democrats won 31 seats to take control of the House 233D-202R. Republicans still held control of most of the states, but the lead was razor-thin (25-23, 1 tie). Even with their lead, they could not have mustered enough electoral votes to elect a president if this was a presidential year, but the Democrats could.

The predictions of the economic recession came true at the end of 2007. This recession was more widespread than anyone thought, encompassing many countries around the world. Unemployment climbed to more than 10 percent nationally, and is currently locked at 9.6. Millions of Americans are out of work and many have been for more than a year. Home values have plummeted, and remain low, facing homeowners with paying a debt on a home worth half as much. Many people walked away, discouraged, with no jobs.

The Stimulus Act of 2008, valued at $152 billion and signed by Republican president Bush was the first attempt to funnel cash directly to the people through tax refund checks. This “trickle-up” effort helped the economy somewhat, increasing spending by those receiving the check by 3.5 percent.

In 2008, the first year of the recession, Democratic Senator Barack Obama was nominated to run for president. He campaigned mostly on hope for the future and bipartisanship in Washington. The historic presidential election solidified the Democratic majority with a net gain of another 21 seats (257D-178R).

But the promise of hope came while the economy was still plummeting. Job losses climbed and the government spent huge amounts of money trying to stem the flow.

In a classic example of “trickle-down” economics, banks, mortgage companies, and large businesses were bailed out to prevent bankruptcies and resulting job losses for millions more.

Mistakes were made. Businesses that were supposed to use the funding to hire workers after stability was regained, kept the money or used it to absorb struggling smaller businesses.

In a classic example of “trickle-up” economics, unemployment was extended to the long-term unemployed, jobs were created through the repair of the nation’s transportation infrastructure, states were funded to continue teacher salaries and many other examples.

The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, also known as the Stimulus Recovery Act, valued at $787 billion included federal tax incentives, expansion of unemployment benefits and other social welfare provisions, and domestic spending in education, health care, and infrastructure, including the energy sector.

The bill was voted against by the entire Republican membership, who in later weeks appeared smiling in photo-ops handing out the checks in their districts.

The deficit got larger, and the population kept any extra money close, skeptical the economy would improve. Businesses, responding to slow sales, did not hire. Banks had money to lend but were cautious, so relatively little business expansion occurred. Layoffs slowly abated.

Unemployment continued to hover just under 10 percent, based mainly on that just under two million new people per year enter the Civilian labor force. If just those two million get jobs, the unemployment rate stays the same.

Businesses are still outsourcing jobs to cheaper locations outside the U.S. Those jobs will not come back. The solution to employment is the implementation of new industries based and dependent on American labor.

Americans just want their lives back, and are angry at the president and congress for not fixing things. Besides jobs, voters want a better economy, a repaired housing market, a smaller deficit, and no tax hikes. They want to end to the war and its enormous expense, and have the government do more about terrorism.

Approaching the 2010 midterm elections, Republicans publicly announced their main goal was to destroy the president and his programs and elect a president that will not veto their legislation. They intend to dismember and de-fund the landmark Health Care and Education Reconciliation Act of 2010 (that all Republicans voted against, in addition to many more bills benefiting our citizens).

During the 2010 election, voters expressed their anger with the size of the deficit, the lack of jobs, and the state of the economy. In the 2008 presidential election, 117.4 million votes were cast. In the 2010 election, 84.1 million people turned out, 25 percent of the voters were over 65 years old (who tend to be Republican and fiscal conservatives).

Republican red spilled across the national map for the last election based on the 2000 Census.

Where from here?

In the 2012 elections, considering the mood of the voter stays the same and giving weight to the majority party in each of the 18 states, it is likely, with redistricting, that Republicans will pick up another 3-6 seats from the Democrats, making the balance around 247R-188D (currently 242R-193D).

If all else stays the same, Republicans will seat a new president, carrying 35 states with at least 350 Electoral College votes (270 are needed to win).

Something we should remember; in 1994, Republicans swept into office promising fiscal reform and accountability. By 2000, the 95 programs they had promised to cut, all remained and increased in total cost by 13%.

What Americans are dealing with is similar to the five stages of grief. They have passed the Denial and Discouragement stages and appear to be in the Anger stage on the way to Acceptance of a new economy and way of life.

What is the future? Will the Democrats be able to erase enough of the 350 electoral votes to reelect Obama? How will the continuing shift to the West and Southeast affect the 2012 election?

Is John Boehner the new Newt Gingrich? He helped write the Contract with America in 1994.

Will John Boehner run? Will Newt Gingrich run? Will Sarah Palin run? Will Jim DeMint run?

Some people say that to disagree with the government in power is unpatriotic. I disagree. It is the highest form of patriotism in the spirit of our founding fathers, as they disagreed with England. Voters have only their vote, and they should use it.

Are politicians using the population shift for their own ends?

Today, some other indicators work in the GOP’s favor. The measurable enthusiasm gap between Republican voters and Democrats means that House districts, gerrymandered to include as many members of a single voting bloc as possible, may limit the number of seats gained in the House, but the increased voter turnout will undoubtedly affect the statewide Senate races.

In an article from ChattahBox Political News

“October 27, 2010– Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) admitted in a National Journal interview that the Republican Party has no intention of finding solutions to America’s many problems. And the Party of No has no intention of legislating to make the lives of ordinary Americans easier. What is on the top of McConnell’s to do list for the next two-years? Besides rolling over for special interests and giving their rich friends tax breaks, McConnell plans to lead his party on a campaign to destroy the presidency of Barack Obama, to ensure a return to power in 2012. And he has no problem saying it out loud. The Democratic National Committee released a video today shining a light on McConnell’s plan for America, asking the question “What does that mean for you?”

When asked by the National Journal to name the top Republican legislative strategies for the next two-years, McConnell responded that he has his sights set firmly on toppling the Obama administration.

“The single most important thing we want to achieve is for President Obama to be a one-term president,” McConnell said, adding, “Our single biggest political goal is to give [the Republican] nominee for president the maximum opportunity to be successful.” ”

And I learned all that from the Census.

The importance of this election goes beyond controlling national legislation; the controlling party also has charge of the redrawing of congressional districts for fair representation of voters, but many times resulting in attempts to manipulate district lines that favor the re-election of the ruling party (gerrymandering). 

The exit polls show that voters are not happy with the economy as it is or the slowness of its growth.  And many are not happy with the extensive unemployment in the country. 

Some candidates tried TV ads that painted their opponent in an extremely negative light, or tried to paint Latino immigrants as menacing invaders.  Many times these ads backfired and the candidate lost. 

The anti-incumbent feeling ran high.  Voters in this country are mostly swing voters.  They will swing to the candidate who promises the most and away from the one who has not performed miracles in the last two years.  An example is Wisconsin, who unseated an 18-year incumbent and elected a senator who was so new he was unclear as to what he would do because he had not even studied the issues. 

Many states showed displeasure with the mandated health care act.  Some legislators lost their seats because of their support of health care in Congress.  Some states passed state amendments to their constitutions prohibiting mandated health insurance.  The Supreme Court will certainly visit the constitutionality of the state amendments especially Article Six. 

What was the impact of the Tea Party on the election?  It drove people to vote, and that is a good thing even if they didn’t vote the way some readers wanted. 

Some exit poll findings for voting Republican for the House and GOP gains from 2008:

Overall, in a voter population of 47% men and 53% women, 57% of men voted Republican, up by 10%; 51% of women, up by 8%. 

By race and ethnicity, in a voter population of 78% white, 10% black, 8% Hispanic and 1% Asian, the Republican vote was 62% white, up by 8%; 41% Asian, up by 8%.

Blacks are still high at 91% Democratic; Hispanics are at 66% Democratic. 

By voter age (adjusted for those too young to vote in the last election), 42% of those 18-29 voted Republican (58% voted Democratic), up by 7% and steadily rising to 58% of those 65+, up by 10%.

First-time voters were evenly split.

By voter location, 61% of those in the south (31% of the population) voted Republican, up by 10%.

By religious preference, in a population of 54% Protestant, 61% voted Republican (up by 7%). 

By family income for the 18% voter families earning less than $30,000, 43% voted Republican, up by 11%; steadily rising to 57% for families earning more than $100,000, up by 6%. 

By financial situation, in a population where 63% have a family income of $50-100,000, and 41% said their family situation had worsened over the last year, 65% voted Republican, up by 37%.  In contrast, the 57% who said their family situation was better or had stayed the same, 46% voted Republican, down by 8.5%.

By ideology, in a population where 42% claim to be conservative, 86% of them voted Republican, up 9%. 

By location population, rural areas voted 64% Republican, up by 15%.  Voters in areas having more than 500,000 people, 34% voted Republican, up 7%. 

Comparing 1994 and 2010 elections, Republican votes by women (53% of the population) went up from 2% to 8%; Hispanic votes (8% of the population) went up less than 1994, from 11% to 4%; voters 60 years and older (34% of the population) went up from 7% to 10%; college grads (28% of the population) went up from 1% to 9%; voters in the south (31% of the population) went up from 6% to 10%; people with family incomes less than $30,000 (18% of the population) went up from 6% to 11%; people whose financial status is better than last year (14% of the population) went down from -26% to -22%; union households (17% of the population) went up less than 1994, from 7% to 3%; and people in rural communities (13% of the population) went up from 8% to 15%. 

There were some interesting excerpts from interesting states in the exit polls. 

AL:  Republicans also took all but one of the state’s seven seats in the House.  Republicans won a majority in the State Legislature for the first time in the 136 years since Reconstruction.

AK: The fiercest political battles in Alaska in recent years have not been across party lines but within the Republican Party.  The majority vote went for Senate write-in candidate Lisa Murkowski-R (41%).  The victory by Murkowski was a stunning upset, as no senator has won a write-in campaign since 1954. It also represents a significant setback for Republicans, who took her off the ticket and Sarah Palin, the former Alaska governor who strongly backed Joe Miller-R.  Miller’s conservative stance on issues like the growing budget deficit worried many Alaskans, whose economy is highly dependent on federal spending. 

Even though write-in incumbent Lisa Murkowski is claiming victory in Alaska’s Senate race, Republican tea party candidate Joe Miller is not giving up until all the absentee ballots have been counted and the write-in votes have been reviewed.

 AZ: Passed a state constitutional amendment preventing mandated health insurance.  Governor Jan Brewer has agreed to eliminate a health insurance program for low-income children. 

AR: A Republican will represent Arkansas in the Senate for only the second time since Reconstruction.  Defeated Sen. Blanche Lincoln-D appears to have lost due to her support of the president’s health care bill. 

CA: Meg Whitman’s-R personal $140 million went for nothing as her negative ads turned off independent voters and elected Jerry Brown-D as Governor by 13 points, along with a host of Democratic veterans instead of Republican newcomers.  Voters said they were not eager to make huge changes and a majority said they supported the job President Obama is doing.    A majority of voters early in the day said, in general, they preferred “an insider who knows how to get things done” rather than an “outsider who would shake things up.” 

Whitman’s personal unlimited wealth worked against her as she overdid it in ads and began to annoy voters.  How she turned against her undocumented immigrant housekeeper and said she should have been deported was the killing blow.  Didn’t she think that comment would affect the votes of 13.4 million Hispanics that make up 37% of the California population?  Personality is a large part of election, and Whitman failed.   

CO: Exit polls showed that the economy was a central issue for the state’s voters, with 4/10 saying their family’s financial situation had worsened in the previous two years. A majority of voters disapproved of President Obama’s job performance, and about half said that Congress should repeal the new health care law.  After a tight race and a recount, the incumbent Michael Bennet-D claimed victory.

CT: Connecticut voters defied the national trend by electing Democratic candidates in several close races.  Worries over the nation’s economy drove Senate support for Richard Blumenthal-D.  According to exit polls, 9/10 of voters expressed concern about the country’s economic future, with a clear majority of those voters backing Blumenthal.  The seat became open when Christopher J. Dodd, a Democrat, announced his retirement. 

The race for governor was too close to call as of Wednesday morning.  The Connecticut Secretary of State declared that Dannel P. Malloy-D had won, while Thomas C. Foley-R declined to concede.

DE: Chris Coons-D won a closely watched race on Tuesday. The contest became a national sensation after Christine O’Donnell-R, who has tried several times for elected office, defeated the mainstream Republican candidate, Michael N. Castle, in the primary election. Republicans had been counting on Castle to win the DE seat as part of the party’s strategy for gaining a Senate majority. 

As it turned out, Mr. Castle’s former Congressional seat — the state’s only House seat went to Democrat John C. Carney Jr.  Exit polls suggested that Coons won easily, thanks in part to the continued popularity of President Obama and Vice-President Joe Biden, the native son. Two-thirds of those surveyed said they had a favorable view of Biden, and nearly 60 percent said they approved of the job that Obama is doing as president. 

Surveys showed that Sarah Palin’s enthusiastic support for O’Donnell may have hurt more than it helped: 46% of the state’s voters expressed opposition to the Tea Party, and two-thirds held an unfavorable impression of Palin.

FL: Marco Rubio-R, a Tea Party favorite, rode a wave of voter concern over the economy to win a three-way race for the Senate.  In the waning days of the race, many Democrats, including Bill Clinton, had urged Kendrick Meek-D, a distant third in the polls, to drop out to improve the chances of Charlie Crist-I. But Meek stayed in the race, and exit polls showed that Crist and Meek hurt each other’s results as the votes split between them. 

25% of those surveyed said they were angry at the government, and 75% of these respondents voted for Rubio, according to the surveys. More than 8/10 respondents who described themselves as Tea Party supporters voted for Rubio.

HI: President Obama’s birth state gave him a rare sweep of Democratic victories.

ID: Republicans swept Idaho and unseated Walt Minnick-D, one of the most conservative Democrats in Congress.  He had backed away from his party’s agenda on economic issues and voted against the health care overhaul and the federal stimulus package.  And ads against his opponent seemed to have backfired.  Even some Democrats found them unfair.

IL: Voters narrowly elected a Republican to the Senate seat vacated by President Obama and three Republicans to House seats currently held by Democrats.  The Senate race held symbolic meaning for both parties because it was for Mr. Obama’s former seat.

IN: Indiana was a surprise victory for Barack Obama in 2008, and Republicans set their sights on bringing the conservative-leaning state back to them.  They succeeded in part, winning the Senate seat vacated by Evan Bayh-D. Republicans also took two House seats from Democrats, that left Democrats with control of only three of Indiana’s eight Congressional districts. 

KY: A majority of voters in this state want the federal government to get out of the everyday lives of its citizens and let the private sector create jobs and provide health care to workers, and they elected Rand Paul, to take its message to Washington.  Paul ran as a Republican, but he made it clear that his allegiance was to the Tea Party.

LA: Voters chose prostitution involement over presidential policies as they elected Incumbent Senator David Vittner-R to a second term.  Vitnner’s number showed up on telephone logs of a Washington prostitution ring. 

 ME: Paul LePage-R, a conservative favorite of Tea Party activists, won as governor in a three-way race whose outcome was uncertain until Wednesday morning.

MD: Republicans barely touched this increasingly Democratic state.  Senator Barbara A. Mikulski-D won a sweeping victory, for her fifth term. In January, she will become the longest-serving woman in the history of the Senate.  Democrats won six of the state’s eight House seats.

MA: Tuesday’s results served as a sobering reminder that Democrats still have the advantage in Massachusetts.  Governor Deval Patrick-D held off his Republican challenger and Democrats retained an open House seat in the 10th Congressional District.  The state is overwhelmingly Democratic.  Republicans had hoped to gain ground in Massachusetts after Scott Brown-R won the Senate seat long held by Edward M. Kennedy-D. Voters in many low-income, heavily Democratic areas turned out in far greater numbers than they had in Brown’s special election.

MI: Rick Snyder-R, a moderate and former CEO of Gateway computer, won the race for governor by talking more about jobs than about divisive social issues. 

MN: After a seven-month recount after a deadlocked 2008 Senate election elected Al Franken-D voters face more uncertainty. The governor’s race remained undecided on Wednesday, with Mark Dayton-D clinging to a narrow lead.  A recount is likely as Dayton’s 9,000-vote lead was less than half of 1 percent of the 2.1 million votes cast.  A frequently debated issue in the governor’s race was how to lessen the $6 billion deficit. Dayton said he would raise taxes on the wealthy, while his opponent pledged to cut government spending.

MS: Two of the state’s House representatives were ousted, perhaps in reaction to the Gulf oil spill since Gene Taylor-D was well liked and had held the office since 1989 and his opponent, Steve Palazzo-R was not well known. 

MO: Vicky Hartzler, a Republican backed by many Tea Party members and endorsed by Sarah Palin, scored a stunning victory over Representative Ike Skelton, a 17-term Democrat, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee.  Hartzler said Skelton had lost touch with the district. She criticized him as an ally of President Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi. 

NV: In a heavily Latino state that elected a Latino governor, defeated Senate challenger Sharron Angle-R was a loud voice against big government, against high taxes and against illegal immigration.  She ran negative ads portraying Latinos as menacing invaders which pushed 2/3 of Latinos to vote for Senator Harry Reid-D.  Reid promoted his support of  immigration legislation and economic recovery of housing which employs many Latinos and led a big push to register Latinos to vote. 

NH: There is reason NH is known as a swing state.  After swinging heavily Democratic four years ago, Republicans won both House seats and kept the Senate seat.

NM: Susana Martinez-R drew great support from Hispanics who usually vote Democratic.  She will be the first woman governor in this state. 

NY: In a survey of voters leaving polling places, 6/10 New Yorkers described the economy as the top issue.  Although NY remains a strongly Democratic state, Republicans took 5 Congressional districts away from Democrats, tying with Ohio for the biggest shift in House seats.  Andrew Cuomo-R won the race for governor by one of the widest margins in history (61.4%-34.1%).  Both incumbent Senators won strongly; Charles Schumer-D (65.4%) and Kirsten Gillibrand-D (62.0%) who was appointed in 2009 to replace Hillary Clinton and will finish out the two-years remaining in the term.  Despite facing ethics charges, Congressman Charles Rangel-D was re-elected by a wide margin (79.9%).

NC: Senator Richard Burr was re-elected to a seat that has not had a two-term member since 1967.  In House races, Bob Etheridge-D was the only incumbent to lose, but is asking for a recount of the 2,000 votes separating him from Renee Ellmers-R who was endorsed by Sarah Palin and helped by ads featured a mysterious video showing Etheridge grabbing a young man, demanding “Who are you?” 

ND: The state shifted parties as the popular governor, John Hoeven-R was elected Senator (76.2%).  The race for the only House seat saw Earl Pomeroy-D, seeking a 10^th term, defeated, just two years after he was re-elected by 24 percentage points. 

OH: The defeat of Governor Ted Strickland-D was one of the most painful outcomes of the election forth Democrats after campaigning by the president, vice president and former president Bill Clinton.  Democrats also lost 5 out of the 10 seats held in the House delegation.  Republicans are looking forward to redrawing district boundaries to their favor as well as suing to block health care. 

OK: The state elected their first female governor, Mary Fallin-R.  Voters also approved a constitutional amendment to prohibit “forced participation in health care systems” and another to prohibit state courts from considering international or Islamic Shariah law when deciding cases.  A Muslim group has already filed suit.

PA: Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in swing state, but it swings with national trends.  People voted Democratic in all five presidential elections from 1992 to 2008 but swung Republican this year with voters concerned over joblessness, the economy and the health care overhaul.  Republicans won the governorship, Senate seat, five seats in the House, and too control of both state chambers. 

RI:  The state elected its first Independent governor, Lincoln Chafee-I.  Democrats held on to both House seats.  The president withheld his support from Democratic candidate Frank Caprio-D as a favor repaid to Chafee who had endorsed him in 2008.  Caprio announced that the president could “take his endorsement and really shove it.”  In a state where Obama’s popularity is really high, it cost him the election. 

SC: The state elected its first governor who is not a white male.  The election went to an Indian-American woman, Nikki Haley-R.  Tim Scott-R will be the first black Republican to represent SC in more than a century.  The election affirmed Republican rule in SC.  All but one successful candidate were Republicans.  SC is now a one-party state. 

SD: The anti-incumbency wave swept the state, voting in all Republicans. 

TN: Republicans gained control of the state legislature and governor’s office for the first time since Reconstruction and gained a majority in the state’s Congressional delegation.  The results underscored a distinct political shift in the state as the Republicans turned the election into a referendum on the economy. 

UT: Although largely Republican, the state shifted sharply to the right.  Senator Robert Bennett-R was defeated in the Republican state convention, leaving a Tea Party candidate, Mike Lee-R who won the Senate seat (61.6%). 

VT: In a razor-thin victory, the state elected Peter Shumlin-D as Governor. The prior governor was a Republican.  The state has alternated governorship parties for nearly 50 years. 

VA: Democrats lost to Republicans in 8 of the 11 Congressional districts.  One district is still undecided. 

WS:  Anti-Incumbent sentiment unseated three-term Senator Russ Feingold-D, defeated by Ron Johnson-R, a first-timer selected by the Republican party, who admitted that he couldn’t be specific on the issues because he hadn’t studied them very well. 

Opinion polls today try to measure large, typical samplings of qualified respondents in order to give credibility (a poll on farm fertilizer will only be useful if only farmers respond). 

They work on a sampling basis, and a sample of 1,000 people with a 3% margin of error might represent the true opinions of 95% of the responders.  Larger samplings all cost more money, so many sample polls are gathered from 1,000 people and the error is reported.  Some samples sample other polls (called poll averaging) to come up with their results, but the danger is that if there are errors, they are brought forward and potentially magnified. 

What type of errors can be made? 

• There are people who do not answer calls from strangers or respond to polls.  It is possible that respondents have a whole different viewpoint from non-respondents. 
• There are respondents who do not answer with their true beliefs or just give popular answers to quickly end the interview or hide unpopular ones. 
• There are pollsters who seek to generate a specific result for their employers by the wording or sequencing of specific questions.  They may lead the responder by referring to a person as a “leading candidate.”  They may sequence the questions to force a certain answer based on previous answers (lawyer technique).
• Responders may have evolving opinions or conflicting feelings.  
• Telephone samples give coverage bias because more people have cell phones only and not landlines.  It is illegal to call a cell phone to poll because of the charges incurred by the owner.  Many landline users are at work during the week or use the landline only to connect to the Internet. 

Pollsters generally try to insure the fairness of their surveys by having multiple sources analyze the questions to rule out leading question bias.  Surveys also have their questions rotated and several different wordings given to different groups (split-sample) to rule out rotational bias.

The goal is to ask enough questions to adequately cover the issue and avoid positive or negative wording or connotations. 

This still does not avoid the danger of late-swing voters, who change their mind in the last days before voting. 

According to a document on Ideology, Attitude and the Influence of Public Opinion Polls, “it would seem that the more conservative the respondent was, the more disposed he would be to indicate behavioral intent influenced by the statement of the polls.”

One aspect that assists in an election’s outcome is news coverage. Studies show journalists often report election stories in the setting of a horserace; instead of lengths they use poll points. 

Leading candidates, according to polls, get additional news coverage in TV newscasts, both local and network. 

These election reports attract money and endorsements that can lead to even better poll results that lead to more news coverage and convince voters that the candidate is likely to win. 

Everyone loves a winner and wants to be on the winning team, so poll results may indeed promote a winner; but we all have seen a horserace where the winner comes from behind and wins by a nose. 

Gallup is the first to acknowledge their results are from a weighted Likely Voter poll, where only respondents that answered all seven poll questions are considered; then non-registered voters and those not intending to vote are removed.  Voters too young to vote in previous mid-term elections have their score raised based on the other answers.  This model has proven accurate in the past. 

Gallup Election 2010 Key Indicators show (October 23, 2010):

Independent voters will probably be the deciding factor in this election.  In the last month, Obama job approval has risen with them by 6 points.  Enthusiasm about voting is creeping up among Democrat and Independent voters, and creeping down among Republican voters. 

Downloading the complete Gallup trends, among Likely Voters (high estimate) the votes for Democrats is creeping up among Independents and formerly non-voting Democrats and the votes for Republicans among Independents is creeping down.  On another chart, the votes for Republicans among Independents are creeping up by the same amount. 

In the last two months, voters very enthusiastic about voting has grown considerably among Democrats, somewhat among Independents and crept down among Republicans.  Obama job approval has grown considerably among Independents, somewhat among Democrats, and of course dropped considerably among Republicans. 

On a monthly basis, since March 1, 2010, Congressional job approval has grown considerably for Democrats, somewhat for Independents, and dropped considerably for Republicans. 

What does all this mean? 

The data is there for you to make up your own mind. 

Don’t let opinion polls influence you.  

Voter concerns:

The first topic on people’s minds is the growing perception that the best days of America are past, and China is growing to be number one.  We were generally raised that America was the best and would always be the best, but now people are afraid our sun is setting. 

Americans see a slow slide from world dominance and prosperity and know it demands a new approach. 

Republicans seek to soothe us our fears with their confidently delivered, glossy promises of smaller government and lower taxes, the ones with the greatest appeal to those economically lower than the upper class. 

However, in Joe Klein’s entire trip, he did not meet a single political candidate who has broken through the fog around the nation’s problems with any striking solutions that sound fresh and plausible.

There is a growing feeling among voters that America has taken a wrong turn along the road to where we are today.  Piled on top of the anger of the constant drain of American manufacturing jobs to other countries, is the growing realization that the same cartel that are now raking in the profits from those moves are the same ones who scammed the system with artistic financial schemes and were bailed out when the juice ran out. 

One voter said, “I really don’t know what’s happening to us in this country. I used to be able to have civil conversations with my friends who are Republicans, but I can’t anymore. We argue about Obama constantly. He’s socializing medicine. He’s raising taxes. It’s very upsetting. I try to tell them the facts, that those things aren’t true. But they won’t listen. A whole part of my life, talking to friends about politics, no longer exists. It’s very upsetting.” 

Financial community:

The bailout of the banks by Congress is understandably the most infuriating recent action taken by our government.  The reprehensible behavior of the financial community over the last 30 years and its crippling effect on the American economy was the issue that raised the most anger by far.

The arrogant financiers of today are the same bankers who made a killing by funding the leveraged factory buyouts of the ’80s and ’90s, then shut them down, unemploying thousands of Americans, then restarted the factories in overseas countries where labor rates were more profitable. 

They were the same financiers who funded mortgages in the ’90s and early 2000′s for people without sufficient financial resources, who later defaulted by the thousands causing the value of middle-class housing to plummet.  But everyone seems to “know” that now.

Many voters understand that homeownership for all was an agenda promoted by both Democrats — through agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — and Republicans.  And many understand how financial organizations obscenely enriched themselves by playing with unregulated credit-default swaps, in which fortunes were made on tiny fluctuations in the value of mortgages. 

Free trade: 

Every president since Ronald Reagan has made an argument that free trade and globalization was unavoidable.  They argued it was part of the natural process.  The economies that were more advanced with a better-educated workforce will produce goods that are better and more advanced. 

Americans never foresaw that some other country’s workers would produce the more advanced goods. 

Bill Clinton said that manufacturing jobs that went away weren’t coming back, and he was correct. 

It came about as the natural process of free trade sold workers out, replacing millions of jobs with millions of jobs in countries with lower costs.   Voters are angry that their children will never work for a good company for their entire career to retire on a pension. 

That part of the American dream no longer exists, and they are angry with the government that allowed that to happen. 

Many people believed that if you followed the basic Pilgrim compact, worked hard and played by the rules, we would have the highest standard of living in the world, but now we are stuck and China is pulling ahead.

In part it is also the American education system that has proven deficient and incapable of taking students to the higher level where China and India have surpassed America in high-tech sectors.  

A voter expressed his opinion; “How is a young person who isn’t a genius nuclear physicist going to get a job?  We need manufacturing jobs for the non-geniuses.” 

Recently, a Wall Street journal poll result showed that 86% of the American public believes that job outsourcing to foreign countries was a major cause of the recession.

The young grads:

Recently a Princeton grad with a Ph.D. in aeronautical engineering considered which Wall Street firm he should work for.  When asked why he didn’t take a job with a firm like Boeing, he replied his career track in manufacturing would peak at $90,000, while he could make that virtually overnight on Wall Street.

Another recent grad with an advanced degree and an impressive resume has been looking for a job for 8 months.  She has received a job offer in India and is seriously considering moving there. 

Our country’s best young minds have been lured from industry into finance with the promise of lucrative careers and to other countries with the promise of a good life.  Most voters believe that our leadership has no clue as to how to stop the diverting of mental talent. 

Rethinking values:

More than a few people are rethinking their basic assumptions and values.  

Even though their parents would never have walked away from their mortgage, people are questioning their own moral standards if they did.  The voters who stayed are angry with the ones who walk away.  They see it as trying to beat the system. 

People were especially annoyed about the help Obama was giving to people who were facing foreclosure.  People who were responsible when it came to buying a house are watching people who weren’t responsible getting help.  If we still had rules that made you put down 25% cash to buy a house, this problem wouldn’t have happened. 

Health care: 

If voters are angry at one thing with health care, it is the forced enrollment.  A recent poll shows that 61% of likely voters “somewhat” support repeal of the new health care law.  The majority believe the law has increased and will increase their health care costs and the federal deficit. 

Voters are annoyed that big issues are being ignored and assorted silliness is stuffed into the 2,000 page bill, like requiring businesses to have a separate private room designated for nursing mothers to use their breast pumps (Section 4207 of Subtitle C). 

Businesses are worried about the uncertainty of tax credits and purchasing exchanges affecting their bottom line when those provisions activate in 2014.  The currect environment is very negative for small businesses with health care premiums rising 15-30% this year.  Thankfully, a provision in the health care law already in effect gives businesses the right to challenge preemptive premium increases. 

Jobs:

The Republican position on jobs is clear: stimulate the private sector with lower taxes and fewer regulations. The Democratic position on jobs is unexplainable. 

Small businesses don’t hire strangers.  People get hired through friends and connections.

One voter said, “If America really knew how much encouragement companies get to move jobs out (of the country), people would really be outraged.” 

There are jobs available; but they are the minimum wage, backbreaking jobs. Illegal immigrants are the only people willing to work the agriculture jobs, with long hours, rough conditions and no benefits.  Owners of farms report that not one American ever applied for one of these jobs—not one. 

“It’s an insult to me to hear that Americans won’t do this work,” said ranking Republican member Steve King, an Iowan congressman.

However, study after study shows that people would rather have no income than work at these backbreaking jobs.  Unemployed workers would rather wait for the “ideal” job than take the first one available.  As long as unemployment benefits continue for the long-term unemployed, these choices will be made. 

By the end of this year, unemployment benefits will commence ending.  This will have a positive  effect on the national unemployment numbers because those workers will be dropped from the Civilian work force if they have not actively looked for work in the last four weeks.  With fewer people “out of work,” the unemployment rate will go down. 

It’s all in the numbers. 

The stimulus:

The $787 billion stimulus package seems slightly less abstract and porky now because of the constant, if annoying, presence of road crews on highways all over the country.  One candidate pointed out that there are 7 times as many highway construction workers at work in Wisconsin this year as there were last year. 

So, the great Washington stimulus vs. deficit reduction debate is not so hotly contested in America anymore. Taxpayers hate wasteful spending, but when asked to choose between deficit reduction and the government’s New Deal style public-works programs, they overwhelmingly choose public works.   

One candidate reported, “The Democrats in the House used the opportunity to fill out a laundry list of things that shouldn’t have been there–like $2 billion for Head Start, without any reforms to make it work better.” 

Auto industry bailout:

The hottest of all topics is government bailouts and the way people are reacting to these hard times. 

The people who understand it best are the MidWesterners.  They are grateful for the bailout, grateful for Obama who was there for the workers, and grateful for the UAW that pays “sub” pay to laid off workers.  One worker summed it up as “Obama has definitely been for the working people. If it hadn’t been the auto bailout, the whole industry would have gone under. The whole midwest would have gone under. It would have been catastrophic.” 

In Lordstown, Ohio, Chevy opened a new plant to produce a limited number (1260 copies) of the Chevy Cruze rated at 40 miles per gallon highway.  The plant hired 4500 workers. 

“That wouldn’t be happening if the President hadn’t helped the auto industry.” 

Ed. Note: Our government, along with the Canadian and Ontario governments took ownership stakes in GM last year to help it survive bakruptcy.  The American share was $50 billion.  With a strong third quarter and an impending IPO, theU.S. Treasury will sell its 264 mllion shares and make a profit of around $7 billion (14%).  Good business.    

The economy: 

The economy is ranked as the most important issue by voters, but no one seems to know exactly how to fix it.  All voters feel is that whatever is being done now is not working.   

Voters are against the raising of their own taxes, but are willing to allow tax cuts for the wealthy if it means their taxes will not go up.  Recent polls show that 56% believe tax increases will hurt the economy; 59% believe Democrats want to raise taxes; 25% believe the Republicans want to do the same. 

The war:

Americans are frustrated and confused by the war, continuous since the 9/11 terrorist attacks and now entering into our tenth year. But worries about the economy completely overshadow the war, and China is mentioned 25 times to each mention of Afghanistan.

There is little support left for the war in Afghanistan.  Responses are half-hearted.  People see the need for strong national security, but most have grave doubts about Afghanistan and the enormous amount it was costing.  

The president:

The fire that elected Barack Obama was that he was the anti-establishment candidate.  He promised change.  For that matter, so were John McCain and Bill Clinton.  But none of them were able to do anything to change the reality of what is making people angry. 

The president occupies an illusory, ethereal place right now, somewhere above and apart from the hostilities.  He is respected and sufficiently popular that Republicans hardly mention him.  But he is a mystery, even among his most passionate supporters.  He doesn’t tout his accomplishments; he doesn’t trade blows or even challenge Republican claims; and he shows little passion on the country’s primary issue: jobs. 

The prevailing sentiment about Obama is disappointment; he has worked hard without achieving meaningful results.  The impact of the reforms passed by the Democrats are beyond most people’s understanding.  What does it mean to them in terms they can understand?  The Wall Street financial bailout is detested.  People cannot see how it helped America move toward recovery.  The bailout of Chrysler and GM is less offensive because people can see the thousands of jobs saved.  

He would be cheered if he showed some assertiveness with China’s currency manipulation.  He must have reasons for not backing recent House legislation giving him rights to attach tariffs to Chinese goods. 

Voters feel Obama’s lack of experience is showing.  He is doing what he can, but conservatives feel he is leading the country away from private enterprise toward the Big Government model popular in Europe.  Voters feel this is undermining American values. 

The Washington machine:

There is a unanimous sense that Washington is a mess, broken beyond repair.  Voters are more than critical of government at all levels.  They are fed up.  Why can’t Washington get anything done?  Have they done anything for us lately? 

One candidate for re-election admitted her frustration with the partisan atmosphere: “One of the best experiences I had came at the very beginning, when all the freshmen went on a retreat together. We started talking, sharing ideas, we were making good connections, getting to know each other—but then as soon as we got to Washington, the leadership started pulling us in our separate directions.” 

People are skeptical that all the Washington spending is doing any good.  They are resentful, with so many Americans unemployed that public employees aren’t taking any of the hits that private sector employees are, and in some cases, receiving raises in pay. 

In that frame of mind, voters are highly susceptible to Republican arguments about waste and Republican promises about change.  Now they are the anti-establishment. 

The political parties: 

There is a great diversity and divisiveness among factions in this country.  There are Republican candidates and Democratic candidates; there are Tea Party candidates and then there are the Democratic incumbents looking to distance themselves from unpopular programs backed by the president and the president himself. 

One candidate seeking to distance himself from Democratic leaders in Washington crafted an ad saying, “We’re a long ways from Washington out here — just the way we like it.”

It is not a formula for a Democratic win.   

There is also the intense anti-incumbency mood spread throughout the country.  People are tired of the partisan squabbling in Washington.  Veteran politicians and freshmen politicians are being targeted for their veteran or freshman status.  Voters are looking for change.  Change out the veteran for his involvement in problems past.  Defeat the freshman for not accomplishing change. 

Lisa Urias, a Latina businesswoman in Phoenix related, “People say to me, ‘I don’t like the Democrats because I don’t know what they stand for,’ I tell them, ‘I don’t like the Republicans because I know exactly what they stand for.’”  This is no longer a Democrat or Republican football Jersey matter, it’s simply a matter of who is going to stand for the hard working families of America, not for campaign contributions. 

One voter complained, “Both the Republicans and Democrats have screwed us in pretty good. They’ve outsourced millions of jobs. Both parties allowed this to happen. Clinton started it and Bush continued it. Now those millions are getting welfare checks. You can’t have a great country without manufacturing. We have to find a way to bring those jobs back or we will be second to China.” 

Voters don’t believe that Democrats have any discipline.  If Democrats want their constituency to trust them, they will have to manage the government far better than they’re doing it now. 

Voters are sick of Republicans proposing bills that they know will not pass (because they also vote against it) so half-truths can be constructed to indicate that Democrats voted against popular voter positions.  They are disappointed by the Republican refusal to negotiate on big issues like health care and the stimulus. 

The Republican “Pledge to America” like the 1994 “Contract with America” has been a non-issue.  No Republicans are holding it aloft in a Patrick Henry stance of defiance.  In it, Republicans still advocate supply-side economics as a way out of recession. 

Supply-side economics advocates lower taxes and tax cuts for businesses so they will have extra cash to expand, hire, and produce lots of goods more cheaply, which will encourage the public to buy the goods simply because they are such a bargain. 

One of the most important lessons of the past 30 years is this: supply-side tax cuts don’t increase national revenue and in general don’t work.  Reagan tried it, Bush #41 tried it and it failed.  

My guess is that the mid-term elections will not be a sweep for either party, but a redistribution to either force both parties to work together to prove they are competent to run our country, or prove to the voters that we need to totally sweep out elected officials, especially partisan leadership. 

My opinion as to the way out of this recession is to add industries in areas Americans can excel in, concentrate on manufacturing that Americans can specialize in, and encourage brilliant minds of all nationalities to spend their careers in this country, adding to the American GDP.  This will require extensive research funding by the government.