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U.S. Bureau of Labor statistics:

Employment Situation:Economic News release

The Civilian Non-institutional population represents all citizens over age 16 eligible to be employed. This measures the flow of workers entering the job market and those retiring.

–Current: 240.4 million; up 172,000 from last month; up 1.73 million in the last 12 months (from 238.72 million).

Employment is a moving target. In a healthy economy, around 60% of those newly eligible look for employment, so about 1.035 million new jobs per year must be filled just to keep the unemployment rate stable.

The Civilian labor force represents employed and unemployed workers actively looking for work.

–Current: 153.88 million; down 315,000 from last month; down 67,000 in the last 12 months (from 153.95 million). On average the labor force is decreasing by 558 workers per month.

–Employed workers: 140.58 million; up 278,000 from last month; up 1.67 million in the last 12 months (from 139.91 million).

–Unemployed workers: 13.30 million; down 594,000 from last month; down 1.74 million in the last 12 months(from 15.04 million).

–Civilian population not in the labor force: 86.56 million; up 487,000 from last month; up 1.79 million in the last 12 months (from 84.765 million).

At the start of the recession, 62.7% of the population was employed. Currently it is 58.5%.

–Unemployment rate (Civilian labor force unemployed workers) has dropped to 8.6 percent, the lowest since March of 2009.

Nonfarm payroll employment represents the Civilian labor force in selected industries (does not count farm workers).

–Current: 131.708 million; up 120,000 jobs from last month; up 1.60 million the last 12 months (130.108), increased by 2.46 million since the February 2010 low (129.246 million).

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +158,000 to +210,000, and the change for October was revised from +80,000 to +100,000.

Private sector employment represents nonfarm payroll employment (not counting government workers).

–Current: 109.719 million; up 140,000 jobs from last month; up 1.88 million in the last 12 months (107.841).

Government employment represents federal, state and local government employment.

–Current: 21.989 million; down 20,000 jobs from last month; down 278,000 in the last 12 months (22.267).

Bottom Line: November:

Unemployment rate fell 0.4 percent to 8.6 percent, representing 594,000 fewer people looking for work. Many of these jobs are seasonal that will end with the holiday season. The good news is that these jobs will provide funds for families who otherwise would have coal in their Christmas stockings. The not-so-good news is that half of the reduction came from a decrease in the Civilian labor force which declined to 64 percent of the eligible population.

According to the PayScale Index that tracks changes in compensation for full-time, private-sector employees, salaries for people with equal skills and qualifications have been trending lower since the end of 2008, when the recession was at its peak. For those hired now, starting salaries are lower than then.

Employment rose in a number of service-providing industries including clothing retail (+27,000), food services and drinking places (+33,000), professional and business services (+33,000) and health care (+17,000) while government employment continued to trend down with the U.S. Postal Service losing 5,000 jobs.

Since the employment depression in December 2009, retailers have added an average of 14,000 jobs per month. Many of these jobs went to workers who were formerly in higher paid positions. In the previous 12 months, leisure and hospitality added 253,000 jobs. Over the past 12 months, health care has added an average of 27,000 jobs per month. Employment in both state and local governments has been trending down since the second half of 2008.

Long term unemployed workers, those jobless for 27 weeks or more still accounts for 43% of all the unemployed and 3.7% of the total work force. The number is down by 1.02 million from the May 2010 high of 6.7 million, but we still have far to go. Marking progress by year, 3.4 million were added to the number in 2009, but 2010 saw a decrease of 308,000. So far this year, the number has decreased by 750,000.

When there are more jobs than the talent to fill them, workers were attracted with salaries above market wage. Today, there are fewer jobs, and businesses have their pick. Since they cannot reduce the salaries of their existing workforce without risking losing their experience, they offer less to new hires.

Companies are also offering jobs to lesser qualified applicants with fewer credentials who can still do the job effectively, but will accept lower compensation.

This can be tough for a seasoned worker with a solid career history, but working is better than being unemployed with the spectre of unemployment benefits running out before a better position can be secured. Workers should research objective salary information and consider employee benefits like health insurance and how the job will fit with their life.

Early last year, 75 percent of the unemployed labor force were receiving benefit checks. The figure is now 48 percent. Nearly one-third of America’s unemployed have had no job is more than a year. Nearly 46 million unemployed are no longer eligible for benefits and are surviving on food stamps.

The U.S. economy has remained weak and an analysis of long-term unemployment data suggests that about 2 million people have used up their 99 weeks of benefit checks and still cannot find work.

Contributing to the unemployed who are not receiving benefits are college graduates or others seeking jobs for the first time. They aren’t eligible since only those who have lost a job through no fault of their own qualify for benefits.

Washington lawmakers will decide whether to continue the extended benefits by the end of this year. If the program ends, nearly 2.2 million people will be cut off by February 2012.

Congress has extended the program nine times, but it will be the first time the Republican-led House will vote on the issue and they might balk at the $45 billion cost.  

Consumer Confidence Survey

For this month, the Conference Board shows that the:

• Consumer Confidence Index^® (short-term outlook) improved in November increasing to 56.0 from last month’s 40.9 (1985=100).
• Present Situation Index (optimism or pessimism about current conditions such as unemployment) increased to 38.3 from last month’s 27.1 rating.
• Expectations Index (optimism or pessimism about future conditions) increased to 67.8 from last month’s level of 50.0 on American optimism.

Americans are beconing optimistic about the present or the future.

Household Survey Data

Nonfarm payroll employment gained 120,000 in November. Previous month changes were: October (+100,000); September (+210,000); August (+104,000); July (+127,000); June (+20,000); May (+53,000); April (+217,000); March (+194,000); February (+235,000); January (+68,000); December (+121,000); November (+93,000).

Census workers peaked at 564,000 workers in May 2010.

The quarterly average nonfarm payroll job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+143,000); June through August 1(+83,667); March through May (+139,667).

Between January 2007 and December 2009, 6.9 million workers were displaced from jobs they had held for 3 years or more. By January 2010, 49 percent of them were reemployed, but not necessarily in the same industries they had worked before.

Average weekly hours and overtime

The average workweek for production and non-supervisory employees employees remained consistent at 33.6 hours;average hourly and weekly earnings held steady at $19.54 with weekly earnings at $656.54, compared with 12 months ago when they were $644.54.

These figures closely correlate with overall output and when workweek hours increase give clues when firms will start hiring.

Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen by 1.86 percent while the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 3.4 percent. Cost for food at home has increased by 5.9 percent, gasoline by 19.7 percent, and fuel oil by 25.0 percent.

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons in non-agriculture industries (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) decreased by 378,000 to 8.5 million. These persons had their hours cut back to 34 hours or less (-296,000) or could only find part-time work (-105,000). The number of persons working part time for non-economic reasons decreased by 36,000.

The number of persons not in the labor force but marginally attached to the labor force remained relatively constant, increasing by 36,000 to 2.59 million (about the same as a year earlier when it was 2.53 million). These are workers who wanted and were available for work, and had looked for work sometime in the last 12 months. They were not considered part of the labor force because they had not looked for work in the last 4 weeks.

Among the marginally attached workers, the number of discouraged workers increased by 129,000 in the current month to 1.1 million. These are persons no longer looking for work. This number has decreased by 186,000 from a year earlier.

Long-term unemployed persons (jobless for 27 weeks and more) decreased by 185,000 to 5.69 million this month. This is nearly 4.3 times the number at the start of the recession in December 2007 (1.327 million). 43% unemployed persons are in this category or 3.7% of the work force. In 2009, 3.42 million were added to that number, but in 2010 only 308,000 were added. So far in 2011, that number has decreased by 750,000.

The average duration of unemploymenthas increased to 40.9 weeks.A year ago it was33.9 weeks.At the start of the recession the average length of unemployment was 16.6 weeks. Half of the unemployed regain employment in 21.6 weeks, about the same as a year ago.

The long-term unemployed number is down by 1.02 million workers since the May 2010 high of 6.71 million.

Unemployment spreads stayed relatively the same with the highest among teenagers (23.7%), followed down by African-Americans, then Hispanics. The lowest unemployment started with Asians (6.5%), followed up by Adult women (7.8%), Whites then Adult men (8.3%).

Establishment Survey Data

Construction lost 12,000 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (-15,000); September (+31,000): August (-14,000); July (+10,000);June (-7,000); May (+3,000); April (+4,000); March (+5,000); February (+30,000); January (-32,000); December (-16,000); November (-2,000).

The quarterly average construction job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+1,333); June through August 1(-3,667); March through May (+4,000).

Currently, there are 5.522 million construction jobs, an increase of 18,000 from a year ago (5.504 million). In December 2007, there were 7.487 million.

Manufacturing gained 2,000 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+6,000); September(-1,000): August (-1,000); July (+34,000);June (+14,000);May (-2,000); April (+28,000), March (+20,000);February (+33,000); January (+49,000);December (+14,000); November (+15,000).

The quarterly average manufacturing job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+2,333); June through August 1(+15,667); March through May (+15,333).

Currently, there are 11.764 million manufacturing jobs, an increase of 210,000 from a year ago (11.554 million). In December 2007, there were 13.74 million.

The Institute for Supply Management said manufacturing activity expanded for the 28^th consecutive month. The ISM manufacturing index (PMI) read 52.7, up by 1.9%. A reading above 50 indicates growth, and a PMI above 42 percent over a period of time indicates an expansion of the overall economy.

Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 8 are reporting growth: Wood Products; Textile Mills; Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Computer & Electronic Products; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; and Paper Products.

Retail trade gained 49,800 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+12,700); September (+23,100); August (+2,500); July (+28,500);June (+11,500);May (+2,800), April (+64,100); March (-5,600);February (-8,100); January (+27,500);December (+2,800); November(-15,600).

The quarterly average retail job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+28,533); June through August 1(+14,167); March through May (+19,509).

Currently, there are 14.667 million retail trade jobs, an increase of 226,100 from a year ago (14.441 million). In December 2007, there were 15.58 million.

Employment in retail trade has increased by 319,000 jobs since its low in December 2009 (14.348 million).

Professional and Business Services gained 33,000 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+39,000); September (+54,000); August (+45,000); July (+39,000); June (zero); May (+44,000); April (+45,000); March (+75,000);February (+44,000); January (+31,000); December (+54,000); November (+85,000)

Professional and Business services consist of legal, accounting, management consulting, administrative and support services. In hard times, they are the first to be trimmed. In recovery, the jobs grow in these fields, as employers emerge from survival mode.

The quarterly professional business services job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+42,000); June through August 1(+24,667); March through May (+54,667).

Currently, there are 17.365 million professional and business services jobs, an increase of 521,000 jobs from a year ago (16.844 million). In December 2007, there were 18.052 million.

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 982,000 jobs since its low in September 2009(16.383 million).

Temporary help services (a subset of Professional and Business Services) gained 22,300 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+15,800); September (+24,700); August (+22,600); July (+13,500); June (-7,000); May (-1,000); April (-5,400); March (+30,000); February (+22,700); January (-11,400); December (+38,100); November (+26,800).

The quarterly temporary help services job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+20,933); June through August 1(+9,700); March through May (+21,367).

Currently, there are 2.333 million temporary help services jobs, an increase of 169,100 from a year ago (2.164 million). In December 2007, there were 2.55 million.

Temporary hiring is the first step to permanent hiring as employers see if revenues justify the extra help.

Educational Services gained 8,300 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+6,700); September (+10,100); August (+4,600); July (+15,800);June (-900);May (-4,900); April (+6,200); March (-2,500);February (+4,000); January (-100); December (+5,400); November (+6,800).

The quarterly average educational services job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+8,367); June through August 1(+6,500); March through May (-400).

Currently, there are 3.25 million educational services jobs, an increase of 71,200 from a year ago (3.177 million). In December 2007, there were 2.98 million.

Health care and Social Assistance gained 18,700 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (+30,300); September (+46,100); August (+34,100); July (+37,400);June (+18,800);May (+26,000), April (+34,000); March(+36,000);February (+36,200); January (+12,900);December (+27,900); November (+30,900).

The quarterly average health care and social assistance job data has three-month averages at: September through November (+31,700); June through August 1(+30,100); March through May (+32,000).

Currently, there are 16.901 million health care and social assistance jobs, an increase of 346,000 from a year ago (16.555 million).

This is one of the largest job growth fields. Employment in this industry has increased by 1.295 million jobs since December 2007(15.577 million).

Government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) lost 20,000 jobs in November. Previous month changes were October (-17,000); September (-10,000); August (+15,000); July (-46,000); June (-34,000); May (-46,000); April (-24,000); March (-25,000); February (-30,000); January (-14,000); December (-18,000); November (-35,000).

The quarterly average government employment (federal, state, local, U.S. Postal Service) jobs have been dropping (except for the Census bubble) over the last nine months and has three-month averages at: September through November (-15,600); June through August 1(-21,667); March through May (-31,667).

Currently, there are 21.989 million jobs, a decrease of 278,000jobs from a year ago (22.267 million). In December 2007, there were 22.377 million.

Federal government (except U.S. Postal Service): Currently, there are 2.205 million jobs, a decrease of 4,400 jobs from a year ago (2.200 million). In December 2007, there were 1.974 million.

U.S. Postal Service: Currently, there are 612,400 jobs, a decrease of 30,700jobs from a year ago (643,100). In December 2007, there were 783,000.

State governments education: Currently, there are 2.406 million jobs, a decrease of 13,400 from a year ago (2.393 million). In December 2007, there were 2.33 million.

State governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 2.667 million jobs, a decrease of 84,300 from a year ago (2.751 million). In December 2007, there were 2.81 million.

Local governments education: Currently, there are 7.855 million jobs, a decrease of 107,000 from a year ago (7.962 million). In December 2007, there were 8.053 million.

Local governments (excluding education): Currently, there are 6.244 million jobs, a decrease of 72,400 from a year ago (6.317 million). In December 2007, there were 6.428 million.

Employment explained:

To restore employment to the 5.5% level, 4.84 million workers will have to regain their job or start new a job.

The government and economists foretell that the “normal” unemployment rate will move up to 8% from its current 5.5% level.

To get to the 8% level, 992,360 workers need jobs. 12.31 million workers will still be unemployed under the new standard.

The Civilian labor force has decreased in the past 12 months by 67,000.

Unemployment is a moving target that can only be battled with new industries and local jobs.

Our recession history of unemployment: 

Over the last 12 months, net 1.671 million jobs were filled in the Civilian labor force, but if you are unemployed, the rate is 100%.

Where are the jobs?

It comes as no surprise that the occupations with the largest job growth in 2008 and projected to 2018 are in the fields of network systems and data communication and all aspects of the medical field, followed closely by financial examiners (accountants, auditors, etc.).

The largest job growth fields also include office and administrative support jobs, sales and service jobs, teachers and jobs in construction and transportation.

Education and employment go hand in hand.

The following table shows that unemployment is consistently greater for those with less education. It also shows that workers over 55 (women more than men) are more likely to remain employed).

Data collection:

The Census Bureau surveys 72,000 households from 754 sample areas across the country to insure an accurate demographic survey. This translates into about 110,000 individuals. All the counties and county-equivalent cities are grouped into 2,007 geographic sampling units, each totally within their state borders and 754 of these units are selected to accurately represent the entire population of the United States. For a detailed explanation, see the BLS Handbook of Methods.

Each month, one-fourth of the interviewed households are rotated out. They rejoin the sample after eight months, are interviewed for another four months, and then are rotated out forever.

Each month, during the week containing the 19th day, 2,200 highly trained Census Bureau employees conduct interviews in the sample households for information on labor force activities (job holding and job seeking) or non-labor force status of household members.

This sampling method results in a 90+ percent probability that the results will be within 0.2 percent (30,000) of the 153.9 million workers in the Civilian labor force. A monthly total census would be cost-prohibitive.

Questions are specifically formulated so that neither the interviewer nor the persons interviewed decide their labor force classification. This prevents the sample from being distorted by respondents providing answers based on their opinion or what a “right” answer should be.

The basic concepts of employment are:

The unemployment rates are extrapolated from the survey results.

The quoted unemployment rate excludes people who have stopped looking for work because they believe no jobs are available (discouraged workers) and others outside the labor force. They are counted separately.

Stimulus (Recovery Act):

The president credits his $787 billion stimulus package of tax cuts and increased government spending with improving employment. He hopes to create about 3.5 million jobs. Lower estimates put that figure at 2 to 2.5 million jobs by the end of 2010, reducing the unemployment rate to 8%.

The Fed’s record-low interest rates, along with other moves to drive down loan rates and stimulate borrowing, have supported the economic rebound.

The president sent The Small Business Jobs and Wages Tax Cut to Congress on January 10, 2010 to try to stimulate more hiring. It focused on small businesses, because as the president stated, “Over the past fifteen years, small businesses have created roughly 65 percent of all new jobs in America.” The proposal included:

• Businesses will receive a $5,000 tax credit for every “net” new employee that they employ in 2010, capping at $500,000 per firm (and $250,000 for new firms) to ensure that the majority of the benefit goes to small businesses.
• Small businesses will be reimbursed for the Social Security payroll taxes they pay on real increases in their payrolls. Specifically, firms that increase wages, expand hours or hire new workers would get a credit against the added payroll taxes that result. This bonus would be based on Social Security payrolls, up to the individual taxable maximum of $106,800.
• Firms can claim the credit on a quarterly basis, returning money quickly to businesses, providing an early incentive to hire and increase payrolls.

• The Recovery Act tax incentives will be extended for depreciation of capital spending.
• There will be increased loan guarantees from the Small Business Administration (SBA), and an elimination of SBA fees.

• There will be increased investments in roads, highways, bridges and other construction, and grants to state and local governments to create jobs and avoid layoffs

President Obama noted that this proposal would be worked into the various other proposals that have already advanced in Congress, such as The HIRING Act of 2010 and The Jobs for Main Street Bill of 2010.

Because the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) program (signed into law by President George W. Bush on October 3, 2008) cost much less than expected. Originally expected to exceed $300 billion, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), as of December 10, 2010 estimates the program will cost only $19 billion, freeing up more than $200 billion to pay for other parts of the jobs program, without increasing projected federal deficits.

Stimulus spending by state

Updated Dec 09, 2011;

$498,063,280,505 has been awarded
$434,254,279,183 (87.2%) has been paid out to the states

Read: How the Stimulus Is Changing America

Recession histories:

Total unemployment peaked at 15.7 million (10.1%) in October 2009 rising from 7.7 million (5.0%) in December 2007 and from 11.6 million (7.6%) in January 2009.

Payroll employment decreased by 4.5 million jobs in 2009, wiping out all the jobs created in the private sector over the last decade.

With Nov 1982 unemployment at 10.2%, and the government taking aggressive action, it was still more than five years (April 1988) from the peak before unemployment receded to 5.4%.

The approach that time, however, was to fix the economy at the expense of the worker.

Some compare the fall in employment to 1974-1975 and 1981-1982. If the comparison is accurate, the peak in unemployment may be reached within the next four to five months (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

Economist William Polley made a chart that includes every recession since World War II. It makes the chart pretty hard to read, so he simplified it with selected post-WWII recessions.

William Polley’s chart shows how the recovery from the 2001 recession took four years for employment to return to its February 2001 peak.

Using the Department of Labor unemployment tables of unemployment rates and 5.5% as the “normal” rate of unemployment, I have analyzed things a little differently. Of course, along the way, the Civilian labor force increases, so the percentages represent ever more workers.

The following table shows unemployment start dates, peaks and returns to the normal rate of 5.5%, Civilian labor force in millions of workers for that year, and the lengths of times from the start date in months:

Recession peaks 1974-2011:

Note that the unemployment peak period that started in 1974 and ended in 1979 (lasting nearly five years) was followed immediately by another peak period ending nearly nine years later. By the end of that period, the work force had increased by more than 32%, meaning overall, almost 30 million new jobs had to be created.

The aggressive increase in the Civilian labor force in that period can likely be attributed to post-World War II babies reaching adulthood, with some entering the labor force after secondary school and the rest entering the workforce after further education.

The periods from 1988 to 1990 and 1995 to 2007 were periods of prosperity, with low unemployment (but a building bubble). Here is the same data in graphic form:

Unemployment rates:

The last time Americans suffered through an unemployment peak of this magnitude was in 1982, that took roughly seven years to return to a “normal” rate. But it was followed almost immediately by another upsurge which took another eight years to correct. The total recovery time was nineteen years from the peak. We can only hope that this recovery is shorter. And it can be shorter if consumers focus on ‘made or grown in America.’

A closer look at unemployment for this recession only:

We live in hope (past performance is no guarantee of the future).

The next Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: December 2011 released January 6, 2012

The last Economic Jobs report will be found at: Economic Picture: October 2011